Global Warming Science vs Politics

Rev 30 Dec 2011

Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099 Cristian Era (CE).

For more than 60 million years Earth went through many natural ~100,000 year interglacial cycles.  Around 1750 CE  the human Industrial Era started by using coal, oil, and natural gas energy resulting in a steady accumulated increase of global warming atmospheric content of human produced carbon dioxide (CO2). Temperatures now are increasingly exceeding interglacial maximums.  Increased human carbon dioxide resulted in increasing global temperature, which resulted in thawing of Arctic Region land-permafrost and increased ocean current temperature that increased sea methane-clathrate deposit releases of natural methane (CH4).  Arctic Region releases of natural ‘carbon’ gases (ie, methane and carbon dioxide) produces  a positive feedback loop that releases more ‘carbon’ gases and more increased temperatures.  A recent survey drew on the expertise of 41 permafrost scientists to offer informal global warming projections. They estimated that if human fossil-fuel burning remained high and the planet warmed sharply, the warming gases from sea and land permafrost methane and carbon could too soon equal more than 35 percent of 2011 annual human carbon emissions.   

By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases accumulations influenced global temperature increase to produce a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on “climate change.”  The 2011 CE data identifies carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now higher than a worst-case scenario predicted in 2007 CE, revealing just how ineffective or counter productive politicians have been in addressing global warming temperature increase.  Greenhouse gas increased above natural pre-1750 CE global warming concentration are ~39% for carbon dioxide and methane is ~164%.  

Global temperature has increased about 0.8 oC since pre-industrial 1750 CE.  Accumulated greenhouse gases are increasing dramatically each year.  Future temperature increase rate-of-change is accelerating with the next 50-year temperature increase to be much faster.  Expected is crossing of +2 oC limit in 2030-2040 CE.  Logical and scientific progression of increasing human carbon dioxide and increasing natural ‘carbon’ global warming of methane and carbon dioxide gases is an unlivable for humans  temperature increase that exceeds +5 oC prior to 2099 CE.  If the Arctic Region methane clathrate gun is triggered, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC much closer to 2050 CE.  Human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.  

Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE-to-date of human carbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane.  Faced with human “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget” the point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.  We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in, which makes it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide.  Increased natural global warming methane levels add to human carbon dioxide levels.  Under existing world leadership command of national carbon economies and responses to methane and global warming temperature increase, it is most unlikely that necessary global warming mitigation will be implemented in a timely manor.  Changes will not occur in time, human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.

Modern Global Warming vs End-Permian Mass Extinction

A major difference between Modern Global Warming (1750-2099) temperature increase event vs 252.28 million years ago (Ma) End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rates of Modern Global Warming.

World Leadership Response

Stresses of increased populations, increased carbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident.  Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded NUCLEAR ENERGY, as a replacement for carbon producing coal, oil, and natural gas energy.  However, the politics of the U.S. and Germain Leadership’s only interest is in national energy gains of political power and with special interest momentary gains within common carbon and renewable energy.  Political interests are of expanding alternative renewable energy and automobile ethanol (alcohol).  Such “alternative energy” activity is politically motivated with capacity-inadequate alternative energy sources that are large-scale, unmanageable, and counterproductive.  Alternative renewable energy and ethanol remain political deceptions that make some politically connected people richer while expanding national global warming carbon economies and increasing global warming.  

World Leaders Must Establish Their Intent to Save Human Races 2050-2099 CE

The identification of political intent for Modern Global Warming response is an absolute critical need. Without assured Leadership promotion of saving all human life there is little doubt that all who are now under 30-years of age are at a increasing grave risk of perishing from global warming temperature increase.  The very young most certainly will die from global warming.  World Leaders must establish their intent and willingness to save human races. Without that 2012 CE declared intent, and Leadership action to curb global warming global warming, massive global warming suicide is assured.  The Leaders goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE global warming.

A national or global greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results occurring over time, Earth temperatures, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, temperature balance stabilization period, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of technically achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb).  

Additionally, environment changes over time, population density, human food chain loss, biodiversity loss, increased drought and famine, potable water scarcity, an upsurge in the expense and intensity of certain natural disasters and survivability status are to be identified for the most probable global warming projections.  Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.      

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations on all time scales and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural forcing scenarios.  Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely scenario.   

Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce global warming greenhouse gases.  By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time a temperature stabilization occurs when natural and human atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations balance with matching systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback and temperature.

Unworthy News Media   

The media is not attempting to prevent global human races destruction.  On the contrary, the media has presented little interest in the most certain destruction of human races.  The media has also demonstrated little interest concerning U.S., Great Britain, and German political global warming attitudes and feasibility of national energy policies reducing greenhouse gases. There was sharp media reporting drop off drop off of global warming reporting with 2009-2011 CE U.S. left Democrats domination of national and regional politics and left Democrats attempt to join European/U.S. communists/socialists.  Specifically, UN paper shuffle of carbon cap-and-trade funds, Germany shutting down nuclear energy, U.S. left Democrats shutting down Yucca Mountain nuclear repository, President Obama's push for "4 million green jobs," and left Democrats funding of more than $90 billion "alternative renewable energy" for SPECIAL POLITICAL INTEREST groups, resulted in derailing of the recovery effort for global warming temperature increase.

Electricity prices paid by German households are to rise more than 20 percent by 2020 as Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes to remove her German nuclear energy.  In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 CE became German law.  With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or Atomic-Exit Law), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending all of Germany’s reliance on nuclear energy.  German “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for Green Party displaced nuclear energy.  Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 CE will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.  

There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. left Democrat’s phase-out of nuclear facilities or for President Obama’s “national energy plan.”  There are no estimates that identify President Obama’s long-term costs for his U.S. nuclear energy phase-out and October 1, 2010 nuclear cabal’s closure of Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository.  There is no U.S. energy planning, only limited responses to energy crises. A U.S. nuclear repository is necessary for America's nuclear fuel cycle and is an integral part of American energy needs, nuclear electrical generation, and national defense programs, which satisfies defense needs and also global greenhouse gas reductions goals.  The current blocking of U.S. nuclear power development and safe Yucca Mountain Repository long-term storage development has profound implications for U.S. nuclear base-load electricity generation availability, well into the 21st Century.  

A global ideological effort is at play to impose a radical climate social agenda on the developing world at the behest of left Democrat “green” environmentalist groups.  Obama’s White House as stated in December 12, 2011, that "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA 2009] also included over $90 billion in clean energy investments."  None of President Obama's planning or funding involves addressing global warming temperature increase.  None of Obama’s invested $90 billion has or will produce any reduction in greenhouse gases or reduction in global warming temperature or improve national security, health, or safety.  President Obama and congressional Democrats/Republicans have engaged in a massive waste of green-energy funding that accomplish no benefits to counter global warning temperature increase. All U.S. government departments are now under direct control of President Obama and are influenced by those favored by left Democrats. U.S. government department reporting is now untrustworthy.  Global warming temperature recovery effort is in a spiral of assured human life destruction.           

Because U.S. and Europe media reporting is now intertwined with politicians’ retention of power and corruption, major media reporting can no longer be trusted.  There has been a drop off in "climate change" reporting in 2009-2011 CE.  What accounts for this change?  A partial answer may be the difficulties facing the news media market over the last few years. Newspapers and periodicals are not a growth industry.  TV market share drives TV news reporting while there is about $2 billion in U.S. 2012 election campaign funding available.  The news media divide is not ideological, it is about capturing the larger market share and holding on to politically controlled media funding.  Media reporting has been politically corrupted.  Political media organizations that are reliable news-partners for political organizations are now more dependent upon politicians, lobbyists, organized labor, lawyer groups, and political action committees (PACs) for all-year and election-year support funding for media articles and advertising.  

As media organizations downsize, an ever decreasing number of journalists are required to cover an ever increasing remit of issues.  News media owners and senior staff have obvious vested self-interest in multi-billion dollar elections that place critical public interests beneath immediate news-media corporate profits.  No longer are news media interest to save human races from annihilation.  Republican and Democrat politicians do tun off the flow of $100s of billions of advertising-flow dollars if a news media organization was to report upon the elected ruling class’ global warming political follies.  There will be no embarrassing media comments about greenhouse gas emission or global warming temperature increase.  Human races are to quietly wait for 2050-2099 CE global warming destruction while the news media, politicians, and the politically connected increase their personal profits, power, and influence.

Europe-U.S. are locked into funding alternative fuels, renewable energy, and eliminating nuclear energy.  China-India are building carbon “infrastructure lock-in” of their greatly expand carbon based economies.  To save the human races involves this century reducing human carbon dioxide emissions to zero, which is a several trillion dollar political change.  Since President Obama is leading from behind on implementing effective global warming issues, most likely ‘change’ and ‘hope’ will not occur in time to save human races.     

Global Warming NUCLEAR (Part 1) 1990 to 2011 Decline of Global Clean Nuclear Energy

Rev 01 Jan 2012

Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099.

The stress of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures is evident.  Human factors can not change to accommodate necessary global warming temperature increase.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy. “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity, is unmanageable and is ineffective on the larger scale.   

The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is the continuation of persistent anti-Vietnam-War and anti-nuclear politics.  There are most certainly other global warming problems, but anti-nuclear politics is among the largest manageable obstacle.

This Blogger website provides the only documents that present an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THIS WEBSITE ALONG.  Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase.  The liberal media has stake in maintaining the proper image of left liberal Democrats while the conservative media is only starting to explore global warming.  Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming.  Without help from news media, politicians, and public, too soon global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable.  

It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming.  If there is no U.S. and German Energy Policy of 2012 that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099.  

There is no public plan to reduce global warming greenhouse gas that causes global warming temperature increase. Large industrialized nations within the EU and U.S. have removed more than 20% of their clean nuclear energies from national inventories in order to promote “renewable” energy and shut down of nuclear industries.  That act shall destroy human races prior to 2099.  

Nuclear Energy is the Only Energy Source That Has Necessary Clean Energy Capacity Capable of Reducing Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nuclear energy has TENS OF THOUSANDS of person-years of very safe services with a proven capacity and sufficient base-load electricity.  As of October 2011, there are 14,640 reactor-years of worldwide experience in producing civil nuclear power.  There have been three major reactor accidents in the history of civil nuclear power - Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima.  One was contained without harm to anyone (Three Mile Island), the next involved an intense fire without provision for containment (Chernobyl), and the third severely tested the containment, allowing some release of radioactivity (Fukushima).  These are the only major accidents to have occurred in over 14,640 cumulative reactor-years of commercial nuclear power operation in 32 countries.  The risks from western nuclear power plants, in terms of the consequences of an accident or terrorist attack, are minimal compared with other commonly accepted risks.  Nuclear power plants are very robust.  When compared to the damages done by coal, oil, and natural gas, nuclear energy is very safe and a superior energy source.  
 
Nuclear energy is low cost clean energy competition to “green, alternative, and renewable” energy.  Therefore, to maintain their political monopoly over energy sectors and ongoing global warming corruption, EU-US anti-nuclear neo-communists eliminated and delayed construction of national nuclear energy sectors.  U.S. anti nuclear protests seeks leadership power and acknowledgment.  Government anti nuclear obstacles has resulted in few new constructed nuclear facilities for more than three decades.  President Obama de-funded the Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository to continue the forced shutdown of the U.S. nuclear energy sector.  U.S. nuclear energy sector provides more than 20% of U.S. firm energy.  Obama also controls the politics of the powerful U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members’ regulations and rulings.

U.S. President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel elimination of national nuclear energy was to remove the nuclear competitor to their nation’s “green energy” renewables and permit continued corruption.  Without nuclear energy, global warming greenhouse gas emission-thresholds greatly exceed interglacial “norms,” resulting in 2050-2099 human races destruction.   

Dream the impossible.  German environmentalists cheered at Germany's shutdown of its nuclear energy sector, apparently satisfied that the government will be able to scale up renewable energy sources and scale back electricity demand enough to compensate for the loss of the power plants, which produce a quarter of the nation’s electricity.  Reference: IEA "Prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2ºC is getting bleaker" 30 May 2011 LINK: http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959   

The Washington Post (June 2011) describes Germany's announcement to close all nuclear reactors by 2022 as a “panicked overreaction,” noting that “Germany’s overreaching greens are showing the rest of the world just how difficult it is to contemplate big cuts in carbon emissions without keeping nuclear power on the table.”  Germany until March 2011 obtained more than one quarter (28%) of its electricity from nuclear energy, using 17 reactors.  The country's operating nuclear power reactors, comprising 15% of installed capacity, 133 billion kWh net in 2010.

The German Green Party traces its origins to the student protest movement of the 1960s, the environmentalist movement of the 1970s, and the peace movement of the early 1980s.  The focus of the environmentalist protests are anti nuclear power.   The green Party movement is at German labor, businesses, and politicians, all of whom have enthusiastically endorsed nuclear use, particularly after the sharp rise in oil prices in 1973.  Green Party of Germany in 1998 to 2005 formed a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD).  In 2009 Christian Democratic Union party shares power with the pro-business Free Democrats.  The new SPD-Free Democrats government in 2009 cancelled German nuclear phase-out, nuclear phase-in was on the table again.  Troubles at nuclear plants in Japan triggered by an earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 buoyed Green Party numbers at the polls in German state elections later that month.  Greens claimed their first state government as the senior partners in a coalition with the SPD.  In 2011, the SPD-Green Party again implemented nuclear phase-out.  In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 became German law.  With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or ‘Atomic-Exit Law’), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending of all German reliance on nuclear energy. Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.  There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. phase-out of nuclear facilities.    

German think tank ‘Breakthrough Institute’ points out that “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for displace nuclear.  Large German costs have occurred due to phase-out of nuclear energy and introduction of “renewable” energy.  Public opinion in Germany remains ambivalent and at present does not support building new nuclear plants.   

Switzerland has five nuclear reactors generating 40% of its electricity.  A national vote had confirmed nuclear energy as part of Switzerland's electricity mix.  However, in June 2011 parliament resolved not to replace any reactors, and hence to phase out nuclear power by 2034.  In the 1960s, it was evident that Swiss power demand would exceed the potential for supply from hydro sources, so utilities proposed building coal- and oil-fired plants.  However, environmental groups and others strenuously opposed coal- and oil-fired plants based on compromising the hitherto clean power generation, so the government encouraged the utilities to plan for nuclear power.  A ten-year moratorium on new nuclear plant construction occurred during a national referendum in 1990.  Then in a unique 2003, Swiss voters firmly rejected two anti-nuclear proposals.  November 2010, the Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate drew up definitive appraisals for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy saying that three sites are suitable for building new reactors.  Following a decision by cabinet not to replace the country's nuclear power plants, the national Council on 7 June 2011 voted to endorse nuclear energy until 2034.  The team of international nuclear safety experts 02 Dec 2011 completed a two-week International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) review of the regulatory framework for nuclear safety in Switzerland. The Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) mission noted good practices in the Swiss system and also made recommendations for the nation's nuclear regulatory authority, the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI).  A new government taking office December 2011 is to produce a new energy policy on nuclear power by 2013 and submit it to parliament.  Until then the future of nuclear power remains uncertain.

If China wants to reach the heights of US gross domestic product (GDP), it must generate much more electricity than is currently produced.  This is a massive challenge for everyone working in China’s electricity-generation sector.  China's electric energy increase needs to come from nuclear energy.  A one-gigawatt nuclear-power plant needs only 20 to 30 tonnes of fuel a year.  However, a coal plant of the same generating capacity (one-GW) burns two to three million tonnes of coal annually – about 100 train-car loads worth a day.  That coal plant produces 200,000 tonnes of coal ash waste a year, as well as releasing into the atmosphere large quantities of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and particulates, causing increased global warming and acid rain and ocean acidification.  The contribution of nuclear power to greenhouse-gas emissions, meanwhile, is very small: UN Environment Programme figures from 2000 estimate total emissions of carbon-dioxide equivalent for nuclear power are around 39 grams per kilowatt-hour.  China will never meet its economic goals by using renewable energy.  As a real need vs. benefits, renewable energy is insignificant and counter productive.  

By claiming that nuclear “waste” disposal remains a problem, the anti nuclear neo communists continue justifying their self-generated nuclear waste problem. There have been no verifiable nuclear “waste” problems identified. The U.S. nuclear energy sector needs more long-term nuclear repositories.  Only anti-nuclear, communists, and self-serving politicians have problems with geologic nuclear repositories.  President Obama refuses to release the funds and authorizations necessary to complete opening the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Repository.  German’s Green Party also has a geologic repository that they refuse to permit completion.

Without Germany and U.S. participation the human races no longer continues to exist this century.  International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on May 2011 that global energy-related carbon emissions last year were the highest ever, and that the world is far off track if it wants to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius, after which the results could be very dangerous.  

Autocratic U.S. White House has control over news media reporting and controls liberal media maintains stakes in left Democrat points of view.  When discussing energy or global warming, U.S. and European news media no longer identify the topics.  More than 20% of U.S. and German energy sector no longer exists within Obama’s nation and within Germany. Resulting from news media complacency, Obama-Merkel anti-nuclear political partnership has assured that surviving the coming global warming catastrophe has moved from “slim chance” to “no chance” of survival.

The first four Chinese AP1000 reactors build are from modules fabricated adjacent to each site.  The timeline is 50 months (4.2 years) from first concrete to fuel loading, and then six months to grid connection, with first costs expected to reduce significantly for the following units.  The cost of the first four built is expected to be less than $2000/kW of rated capacity and reducing to $1600/kW for further units.  Contrasting Chinese construction cost examples of U.S. nuclear units undergoing the permit process that include other charges are estimated at around $8,000 to $10,000/kW of rated capacity and an additional financing charges and project contingencies, at $5,335/kW.  American huge costs in the nuclear industry result from political overhead.  

To lift people from poverty, the energy supply problem must provide renewable nuclear power or hydroelectric power.  Hydroelectric power is site limited and expensive to build. Nuclear power is still unnecessarily expensive.  Wind and solar power (both with batteries) and solar cookers are good alternative energy sources for rural poor locations. If Obama and Merkel carry on with “green energy” renewables, there will be completely catastrophic increases in energy prices while global warming temperature continues to increase.  

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