Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099 CE, but most likely 2050-2055 CE.
The EU climate protection target - the 2 oC limit - established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 CE. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by 260-years of using hydrocarbon energy. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4); methane has a much larger 20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 Christian Era (CE) to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide (CO2 at 450-ppm is the 2 oC limit). Global warming carbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017 CE.
Historical Global Warming
To have any reasonable 70% chance of avoiding destruction of human races 2050-2055, global human and natural greenhouse gas emissions are to peak by 2015-2020. If not now corrected, it is almost certain human races will end around 2050-2055. What happens after 2055 end of human races is of little interest. However, some people might want to know what they are missing.
55.8 million years ago -- Caused by excessive human carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 CE and resulting methane emissions - Earth's global warming is similar to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of about 55.8 million years ago (Ma), when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents. Within PETM, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and volcanic carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. Huge amounts of carbon and methane were released into atmosphere and from carbon cycle. PETM globe warmed 5 to 9°C (9 to 16°F). A major difference between current Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase event and PETM is that current temperature increase during beginning stages is about 15 times faster (and accelerating) than PETM event. Global temperature increase is projected to be too fast for Earth or human ecosystems to adapt.
In 2010, our fossil fuel burning released 35 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. By comparison, volcanoes now release about 0.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. How fast carbon and methane enters atmosphere translates to how fast temperature increases after delays. Environmental and societal consequences of warming at such a speed will be devastating.
PETM temperature rose steadily with slow release of greenhouse gas. Today, fossil fuel burning releases carbon about fifteen times greater than PETM, driving global temperature up at an incredible rate. A corresponding rapid increase in powerful methane global warming occurs. Methane also has regional positive warming properties that makes methane an exceptional global warming gas.
Many of the other natural climate feedbacks that we either already observe today or expect to experience probably took place during the PETM warming, as well. Severe drought would have led to increased wildfires (such as would occur within Amazon), injecting more carbon into the atmosphere. Research shows that permafrost on a then glacier-free Antarctica thawed, which would have also released carbon dioxide and methane. Another interesting source of carbon that some scientists hypothesize is burning of peat and coal seams. Peat is decayed vegetation and has a very high carbon content that also releases methane. Peat, which is found in the soil beneath the surface, can be ignited by something like a wildfire and continue to smolder for as long as centuries. Coal seams can be ignited in a similar way, and burn for decades to centuries, releasing huge amounts of carbon into atmosphere.
252.28 million years ago -- Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within End-Permian Mass Extinction Period 252.28 Ma, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates (vented from volcanic Siberian Traps). However, within Modern Global Warming, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.
A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase during the beginning stages is ALSO about 15 times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved who depend upon potable water and global environment resources.
Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated End-Permian Mass Extinction, about which no one survives global warming temperature increase.
Interglacial Cycles -- Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels that are determined by changes of the sun’s relative position to earth orbit (described by Milankovitch Cycle orbital variations and occasional increased volcanic activity). A 1976 CE study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Milankovich's theory corresponded to periods of global warming and cooling.
Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the earth was going through different stages of orbital variation. Resulting from current greenhouse gas emissions, “natural” earth temperature interglacial cooling cycle will not occur again for millions of years.
Natural historical Earth interglacial cycles are ~100,000-year temperature cycles. Current Milankovitch Cycle is now driven by ~250 years of human hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) activity that produces human and natural greenhouse gas emissions. Today's human "climate increase" is about 100 times faster than Milankovitch Cycle "natural change."
Modern Global Warming
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.
Very huge deposits of Arctic Region methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and degradation of organic compound methane (CH4) (methane clathrate is about 85% natural gas). Methane is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period, taking aerosol impacts into account. If methane clathrate gun triggers due to warming Arctic Ocean currents, Earth’s temperature could rapidly rises tens of degrees.
Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.
Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), increased natural methane release, and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Not yet proposed are changes to global warming business as usual politics.
In 1970s, U.S. nuclear energy facilities were capped to assure about 80% of electrical energy supplied would be from hydrocarbon energy. By 1980s, it was well known that global warming was a growing problem. In 1990s - 2010s, politics gamed global warming responses to increase profits from "green" alternatives to nuclear energy. Congressional responses to global warming temperature increase remain sidetracked for continued political and special interest corruption, payoffs, and political control of national and global hydrocarbon energy sectors. While reviewing global warming articles, care should be taken because there are many intentional deceptively written materials and presenters.
Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction? Not without willing politicians and a great deal of time and material spent on nuclear clean energy investments between now and 2017 CE carbon infrastructure lock in of global carbon budget. Since there is no functioning organization or system (except for U.S. military and intelligence services) that is capable of directing necessary changeover to clean nuclear energy, most likely human races end date is 2050-2055 CE.
Showing posts with label 1750. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1750. Show all posts
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Saturday, February 11, 2012
U.S. Nuclear Energy
Global warming temperature increase is a response to atmospheric accumulations of human and natural carbon dioxide and methane emission since the 1750 CE start of the industrial revolution.
President Obama is now somewhat aware of the seriousness of the global warming temperature increase issues. However, the Republican candidates and U.S. Congress appear not to understand the significance of global warming temperature increase.
All those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.
Global Warming Temperature Increase
The current greenhouse gas increase above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Existing carbon dioxide level is ~392 ppm. When carbon dioxide exceeds ~450 ppm, Earth’s physical carbon budget is exceeded and Earth’s carbon sinks become carbon sources resulting in Earth’s temperature increase accelerating rapidly. Within 2050-2099 CE the temperature increase is so great that Earth’s life support systems no longer function, resulting in the death of 9 billion people. Global warming is caused by human increasing use of global warming hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and increasing releases of Arctic Region global warming methane gas (from methane hydrate vast stores). The ONLY solution available to stop global warming temperature increase is the replacement of hydrocarbon energy used to generate electrical energy with deployment of a rapid and vast build up of nuclear energy. Will this expansion of nuclear energy be enough to save human races from their 2050-2099 CE death? That question is yet to be acknowledged.
At 2017 CE the in-place global hydrocarbon energy infrastructure shall exceed Earth’s carbon budget; the point of no return is reached, human races are extinguished 2050-2099 CE.
NRC 30-Year Political Nuclear Logjam
Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands. For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. President Obama and the left Democrat political machinery have now completed the more than 30-year U.S. political phase out of nuclear energy. Congressional political machinery is still fighting new U.S. nuclear construction.
09 February 2012, President Obama’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have issued the Combined Licenses (COL) to Southern Nuclear Operating Company’s application at the Vogtle site in Georgia. NRC staff is expected to issue the Vogtle site COLs within 10 business days. NRC members COLs should also have block authorized for the construction and conditional operation of many new Westinghouse AP-1000 nuclear power plants in the U.S.
The Combined Construction and Operating License (Regulatory Guide 1.206, COL) replaced the previous Draft Regulatory Guide 1145 as the licensing process for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. The COL is a part of a new "streamlined" or “fast track” process that is hoped to prevent delays in operation that contributed to the mothballing of many plants since the 1980s.
Previously (under Draft Regulatory Guide 1145), the licensing process had two steps, construction and operation, each of which required a different license to be issued. Oppositions raised before a plant started operation versus before it started construction could thus be extremely financially damaging to a utility.
Under new Regulatory Guide 1.206, a COL alone is still not enough to construct a nuclear plant, an Early Site Permit (ESP) application must also be filed. The ESP addresses the site that plant will be built on. ESP is unique to each site. The COL addresses the reactor design and construction. It is my understanding that since the AP-1000 is a “standard design,” the NRC COL approval for Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 applies to all AP-1000 reactor design and construction that are backlogged at the NRC.
COL and the ESP could happen simultaneously for Bellefonte Nuclear Station Units 3 and 4 (Hollywood, Alabama), Levy County Units 1 and 2 (Levy County, Florida), Shearon Harris Units 2 and 3 (Wake County, North Carolina), Vogtle Units 3 and 4 (Burke County, Georgia), and William States Lee III Units 1 and 2 (Cherokee County, South Carolina). Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3 (Fairfield County, South Carolina) mandatory hearing requirements appear complete.
A Clouded Future
Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.
Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands. For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. Left Democrat political machinery continue more than 30-year U.S. political of opposition to nuclear energy.
Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. A response plan for global warming would take about ten-years to develop. Earth does not have ten-years, it only has five years till 2017 CE to stop building carbon energy infrastructure. Human carbon emissions war to peak 2015-2010 CE and than decrease to zero over time.
Global hydrocarbon infrastructure lock-in is around 2017 CE, and it takes about 3-4 years to build a large nuclear facility. How is the U.S. going to produce enough clean nuclear energy soon enough to cap and reduce carbon emissions so that human races are saved from total destruction 2050-2099 CE?
The start of any Republican or Democrat global warming recovery plan is to expand U.S. nuclear energy. To properly expand U.S. nuclear energy it is necessary to replace the politics of the NRC members with an experienced panel of three military nuclear officers and one presidential appointee. To meet Earth’s 2017 CE carbon budget criteria, military nuclear design, construction, and operation experiences within the NRC is required to quickly expand U.S. and global nuclear capacity. Not doing so results in the destruction of 9 billion people.
President Obama is now somewhat aware of the seriousness of the global warming temperature increase issues. However, the Republican candidates and U.S. Congress appear not to understand the significance of global warming temperature increase.
All those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.
Global Warming Temperature Increase
The current greenhouse gas increase above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Existing carbon dioxide level is ~392 ppm. When carbon dioxide exceeds ~450 ppm, Earth’s physical carbon budget is exceeded and Earth’s carbon sinks become carbon sources resulting in Earth’s temperature increase accelerating rapidly. Within 2050-2099 CE the temperature increase is so great that Earth’s life support systems no longer function, resulting in the death of 9 billion people. Global warming is caused by human increasing use of global warming hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and increasing releases of Arctic Region global warming methane gas (from methane hydrate vast stores). The ONLY solution available to stop global warming temperature increase is the replacement of hydrocarbon energy used to generate electrical energy with deployment of a rapid and vast build up of nuclear energy. Will this expansion of nuclear energy be enough to save human races from their 2050-2099 CE death? That question is yet to be acknowledged.
At 2017 CE the in-place global hydrocarbon energy infrastructure shall exceed Earth’s carbon budget; the point of no return is reached, human races are extinguished 2050-2099 CE.
NRC 30-Year Political Nuclear Logjam
Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands. For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. President Obama and the left Democrat political machinery have now completed the more than 30-year U.S. political phase out of nuclear energy. Congressional political machinery is still fighting new U.S. nuclear construction.
09 February 2012, President Obama’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have issued the Combined Licenses (COL) to Southern Nuclear Operating Company’s application at the Vogtle site in Georgia. NRC staff is expected to issue the Vogtle site COLs within 10 business days. NRC members COLs should also have block authorized for the construction and conditional operation of many new Westinghouse AP-1000 nuclear power plants in the U.S.
The Combined Construction and Operating License (Regulatory Guide 1.206, COL) replaced the previous Draft Regulatory Guide 1145 as the licensing process for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. The COL is a part of a new "streamlined" or “fast track” process that is hoped to prevent delays in operation that contributed to the mothballing of many plants since the 1980s.
Previously (under Draft Regulatory Guide 1145), the licensing process had two steps, construction and operation, each of which required a different license to be issued. Oppositions raised before a plant started operation versus before it started construction could thus be extremely financially damaging to a utility.
Under new Regulatory Guide 1.206, a COL alone is still not enough to construct a nuclear plant, an Early Site Permit (ESP) application must also be filed. The ESP addresses the site that plant will be built on. ESP is unique to each site. The COL addresses the reactor design and construction. It is my understanding that since the AP-1000 is a “standard design,” the NRC COL approval for Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 applies to all AP-1000 reactor design and construction that are backlogged at the NRC.
COL and the ESP could happen simultaneously for Bellefonte Nuclear Station Units 3 and 4 (Hollywood, Alabama), Levy County Units 1 and 2 (Levy County, Florida), Shearon Harris Units 2 and 3 (Wake County, North Carolina), Vogtle Units 3 and 4 (Burke County, Georgia), and William States Lee III Units 1 and 2 (Cherokee County, South Carolina). Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3 (Fairfield County, South Carolina) mandatory hearing requirements appear complete.
A Clouded Future
Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.
Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands. For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. Left Democrat political machinery continue more than 30-year U.S. political of opposition to nuclear energy.
Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. A response plan for global warming would take about ten-years to develop. Earth does not have ten-years, it only has five years till 2017 CE to stop building carbon energy infrastructure. Human carbon emissions war to peak 2015-2010 CE and than decrease to zero over time.
Global hydrocarbon infrastructure lock-in is around 2017 CE, and it takes about 3-4 years to build a large nuclear facility. How is the U.S. going to produce enough clean nuclear energy soon enough to cap and reduce carbon emissions so that human races are saved from total destruction 2050-2099 CE?
The start of any Republican or Democrat global warming recovery plan is to expand U.S. nuclear energy. To properly expand U.S. nuclear energy it is necessary to replace the politics of the NRC members with an experienced panel of three military nuclear officers and one presidential appointee. To meet Earth’s 2017 CE carbon budget criteria, military nuclear design, construction, and operation experiences within the NRC is required to quickly expand U.S. and global nuclear capacity. Not doing so results in the destruction of 9 billion people.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Global Warming Science vs Politics
Rev 30 Dec 2011
Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099 Cristian Era (CE).
For more than 60 million years Earth went through many natural ~100,000 year interglacial cycles. Around 1750 CE the human Industrial Era started by using coal, oil, and natural gas energy resulting in a steady accumulated increase of global warming atmospheric content of human produced carbon dioxide (CO2). Temperatures now are increasingly exceeding interglacial maximums. Increased human carbon dioxide resulted in increasing global temperature, which resulted in thawing of Arctic Region land-permafrost and increased ocean current temperature that increased sea methane-clathrate deposit releases of natural methane (CH4). Arctic Region releases of natural ‘carbon’ gases (ie, methane and carbon dioxide) produces a positive feedback loop that releases more ‘carbon’ gases and more increased temperatures. A recent survey drew on the expertise of 41 permafrost scientists to offer informal global warming projections. They estimated that if human fossil-fuel burning remained high and the planet warmed sharply, the warming gases from sea and land permafrost methane and carbon could too soon equal more than 35 percent of 2011 annual human carbon emissions.
By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases accumulations influenced global temperature increase to produce a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on “climate change.” The 2011 CE data identifies carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now higher than a worst-case scenario predicted in 2007 CE, revealing just how ineffective or counter productive politicians have been in addressing global warming temperature increase. Greenhouse gas increased above natural pre-1750 CE global warming concentration are ~39% for carbon dioxide and methane is ~164%.
Global temperature has increased about 0.8 oC since pre-industrial 1750 CE. Accumulated greenhouse gases are increasing dramatically each year. Future temperature increase rate-of-change is accelerating with the next 50-year temperature increase to be much faster. Expected is crossing of +2 oC limit in 2030-2040 CE. Logical and scientific progression of increasing human carbon dioxide and increasing natural ‘carbon’ global warming of methane and carbon dioxide gases is an unlivable for humans temperature increase that exceeds +5 oC prior to 2099 CE. If the Arctic Region methane clathrate gun is triggered, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC much closer to 2050 CE. Human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.
Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE-to-date of human carbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane. Faced with human “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget” the point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE. We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in, which makes it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Increased natural global warming methane levels add to human carbon dioxide levels. Under existing world leadership command of national carbon economies and responses to methane and global warming temperature increase, it is most unlikely that necessary global warming mitigation will be implemented in a timely manor. Changes will not occur in time, human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.
Modern Global Warming vs End-Permian Mass Extinction
A major difference between Modern Global Warming (1750-2099) temperature increase event vs 252.28 million years ago (Ma) End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.
Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rates of Modern Global Warming.
World Leadership Response
Stresses of increased populations, increased carbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase. The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded NUCLEAR ENERGY, as a replacement for carbon producing coal, oil, and natural gas energy. However, the politics of the U.S. and Germain Leadership’s only interest is in national energy gains of political power and with special interest momentary gains within common carbon and renewable energy. Political interests are of expanding alternative renewable energy and automobile ethanol (alcohol). Such “alternative energy” activity is politically motivated with capacity-inadequate alternative energy sources that are large-scale, unmanageable, and counterproductive. Alternative renewable energy and ethanol remain political deceptions that make some politically connected people richer while expanding national global warming carbon economies and increasing global warming.
World Leaders Must Establish Their Intent to Save Human Races 2050-2099 CE
The identification of political intent for Modern Global Warming response is an absolute critical need. Without assured Leadership promotion of saving all human life there is little doubt that all who are now under 30-years of age are at a increasing grave risk of perishing from global warming temperature increase. The very young most certainly will die from global warming. World Leaders must establish their intent and willingness to save human races. Without that 2012 CE declared intent, and Leadership action to curb global warming global warming, massive global warming suicide is assured. The Leaders goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE global warming.
A national or global greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results occurring over time, Earth temperatures, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, temperature balance stabilization period, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of technically achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb).
Additionally, environment changes over time, population density, human food chain loss, biodiversity loss, increased drought and famine, potable water scarcity, an upsurge in the expense and intensity of certain natural disasters and survivability status are to be identified for the most probable global warming projections. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.
Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations on all time scales and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural forcing scenarios. Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely scenario.
Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce global warming greenhouse gases. By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time a temperature stabilization occurs when natural and human atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations balance with matching systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback and temperature.
Unworthy News Media
The media is not attempting to prevent global human races destruction. On the contrary, the media has presented little interest in the most certain destruction of human races. The media has also demonstrated little interest concerning U.S., Great Britain, and German political global warming attitudes and feasibility of national energy policies reducing greenhouse gases. There was sharp media reporting drop off drop off of global warming reporting with 2009-2011 CE U.S. left Democrats domination of national and regional politics and left Democrats attempt to join European/U.S. communists/socialists. Specifically, UN paper shuffle of carbon cap-and-trade funds, Germany shutting down nuclear energy, U.S. left Democrats shutting down Yucca Mountain nuclear repository, President Obama's push for "4 million green jobs," and left Democrats funding of more than $90 billion "alternative renewable energy" for SPECIAL POLITICAL INTEREST groups, resulted in derailing of the recovery effort for global warming temperature increase.
Electricity prices paid by German households are to rise more than 20 percent by 2020 as Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes to remove her German nuclear energy. In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 CE became German law. With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or Atomic-Exit Law), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending all of Germany’s reliance on nuclear energy. German “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for Green Party displaced nuclear energy. Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 CE will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.
There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. left Democrat’s phase-out of nuclear facilities or for President Obama’s “national energy plan.” There are no estimates that identify President Obama’s long-term costs for his U.S. nuclear energy phase-out and October 1, 2010 nuclear cabal’s closure of Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository. There is no U.S. energy planning, only limited responses to energy crises. A U.S. nuclear repository is necessary for America's nuclear fuel cycle and is an integral part of American energy needs, nuclear electrical generation, and national defense programs, which satisfies defense needs and also global greenhouse gas reductions goals. The current blocking of U.S. nuclear power development and safe Yucca Mountain Repository long-term storage development has profound implications for U.S. nuclear base-load electricity generation availability, well into the 21st Century.
A global ideological effort is at play to impose a radical climate social agenda on the developing world at the behest of left Democrat “green” environmentalist groups. Obama’s White House as stated in December 12, 2011, that "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA 2009] also included over $90 billion in clean energy investments." None of President Obama's planning or funding involves addressing global warming temperature increase. None of Obama’s invested $90 billion has or will produce any reduction in greenhouse gases or reduction in global warming temperature or improve national security, health, or safety. President Obama and congressional Democrats/Republicans have engaged in a massive waste of green-energy funding that accomplish no benefits to counter global warning temperature increase. All U.S. government departments are now under direct control of President Obama and are influenced by those favored by left Democrats. U.S. government department reporting is now untrustworthy. Global warming temperature recovery effort is in a spiral of assured human life destruction.
Because U.S. and Europe media reporting is now intertwined with politicians’ retention of power and corruption, major media reporting can no longer be trusted. There has been a drop off in "climate change" reporting in 2009-2011 CE. What accounts for this change? A partial answer may be the difficulties facing the news media market over the last few years. Newspapers and periodicals are not a growth industry. TV market share drives TV news reporting while there is about $2 billion in U.S. 2012 election campaign funding available. The news media divide is not ideological, it is about capturing the larger market share and holding on to politically controlled media funding. Media reporting has been politically corrupted. Political media organizations that are reliable news-partners for political organizations are now more dependent upon politicians, lobbyists, organized labor, lawyer groups, and political action committees (PACs) for all-year and election-year support funding for media articles and advertising.
As media organizations downsize, an ever decreasing number of journalists are required to cover an ever increasing remit of issues. News media owners and senior staff have obvious vested self-interest in multi-billion dollar elections that place critical public interests beneath immediate news-media corporate profits. No longer are news media interest to save human races from annihilation. Republican and Democrat politicians do tun off the flow of $100s of billions of advertising-flow dollars if a news media organization was to report upon the elected ruling class’ global warming political follies. There will be no embarrassing media comments about greenhouse gas emission or global warming temperature increase. Human races are to quietly wait for 2050-2099 CE global warming destruction while the news media, politicians, and the politically connected increase their personal profits, power, and influence.
Europe-U.S. are locked into funding alternative fuels, renewable energy, and eliminating nuclear energy. China-India are building carbon “infrastructure lock-in” of their greatly expand carbon based economies. To save the human races involves this century reducing human carbon dioxide emissions to zero, which is a several trillion dollar political change. Since President Obama is leading from behind on implementing effective global warming issues, most likely ‘change’ and ‘hope’ will not occur in time to save human races.
Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099 Cristian Era (CE).
For more than 60 million years Earth went through many natural ~100,000 year interglacial cycles. Around 1750 CE the human Industrial Era started by using coal, oil, and natural gas energy resulting in a steady accumulated increase of global warming atmospheric content of human produced carbon dioxide (CO2). Temperatures now are increasingly exceeding interglacial maximums. Increased human carbon dioxide resulted in increasing global temperature, which resulted in thawing of Arctic Region land-permafrost and increased ocean current temperature that increased sea methane-clathrate deposit releases of natural methane (CH4). Arctic Region releases of natural ‘carbon’ gases (ie, methane and carbon dioxide) produces a positive feedback loop that releases more ‘carbon’ gases and more increased temperatures. A recent survey drew on the expertise of 41 permafrost scientists to offer informal global warming projections. They estimated that if human fossil-fuel burning remained high and the planet warmed sharply, the warming gases from sea and land permafrost methane and carbon could too soon equal more than 35 percent of 2011 annual human carbon emissions.
By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases accumulations influenced global temperature increase to produce a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on “climate change.” The 2011 CE data identifies carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now higher than a worst-case scenario predicted in 2007 CE, revealing just how ineffective or counter productive politicians have been in addressing global warming temperature increase. Greenhouse gas increased above natural pre-1750 CE global warming concentration are ~39% for carbon dioxide and methane is ~164%.
Global temperature has increased about 0.8 oC since pre-industrial 1750 CE. Accumulated greenhouse gases are increasing dramatically each year. Future temperature increase rate-of-change is accelerating with the next 50-year temperature increase to be much faster. Expected is crossing of +2 oC limit in 2030-2040 CE. Logical and scientific progression of increasing human carbon dioxide and increasing natural ‘carbon’ global warming of methane and carbon dioxide gases is an unlivable for humans temperature increase that exceeds +5 oC prior to 2099 CE. If the Arctic Region methane clathrate gun is triggered, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC much closer to 2050 CE. Human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.
Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE-to-date of human carbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane. Faced with human “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget” the point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE. We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in, which makes it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Increased natural global warming methane levels add to human carbon dioxide levels. Under existing world leadership command of national carbon economies and responses to methane and global warming temperature increase, it is most unlikely that necessary global warming mitigation will be implemented in a timely manor. Changes will not occur in time, human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.
Modern Global Warming vs End-Permian Mass Extinction
A major difference between Modern Global Warming (1750-2099) temperature increase event vs 252.28 million years ago (Ma) End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.
Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rates of Modern Global Warming.
World Leadership Response
Stresses of increased populations, increased carbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase. The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded NUCLEAR ENERGY, as a replacement for carbon producing coal, oil, and natural gas energy. However, the politics of the U.S. and Germain Leadership’s only interest is in national energy gains of political power and with special interest momentary gains within common carbon and renewable energy. Political interests are of expanding alternative renewable energy and automobile ethanol (alcohol). Such “alternative energy” activity is politically motivated with capacity-inadequate alternative energy sources that are large-scale, unmanageable, and counterproductive. Alternative renewable energy and ethanol remain political deceptions that make some politically connected people richer while expanding national global warming carbon economies and increasing global warming.
World Leaders Must Establish Their Intent to Save Human Races 2050-2099 CE
The identification of political intent for Modern Global Warming response is an absolute critical need. Without assured Leadership promotion of saving all human life there is little doubt that all who are now under 30-years of age are at a increasing grave risk of perishing from global warming temperature increase. The very young most certainly will die from global warming. World Leaders must establish their intent and willingness to save human races. Without that 2012 CE declared intent, and Leadership action to curb global warming global warming, massive global warming suicide is assured. The Leaders goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE global warming.
A national or global greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results occurring over time, Earth temperatures, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, temperature balance stabilization period, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of technically achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb).
Additionally, environment changes over time, population density, human food chain loss, biodiversity loss, increased drought and famine, potable water scarcity, an upsurge in the expense and intensity of certain natural disasters and survivability status are to be identified for the most probable global warming projections. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.
Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations on all time scales and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural forcing scenarios. Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely scenario.
Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce global warming greenhouse gases. By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time a temperature stabilization occurs when natural and human atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations balance with matching systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback and temperature.
Unworthy News Media
The media is not attempting to prevent global human races destruction. On the contrary, the media has presented little interest in the most certain destruction of human races. The media has also demonstrated little interest concerning U.S., Great Britain, and German political global warming attitudes and feasibility of national energy policies reducing greenhouse gases. There was sharp media reporting drop off drop off of global warming reporting with 2009-2011 CE U.S. left Democrats domination of national and regional politics and left Democrats attempt to join European/U.S. communists/socialists. Specifically, UN paper shuffle of carbon cap-and-trade funds, Germany shutting down nuclear energy, U.S. left Democrats shutting down Yucca Mountain nuclear repository, President Obama's push for "4 million green jobs," and left Democrats funding of more than $90 billion "alternative renewable energy" for SPECIAL POLITICAL INTEREST groups, resulted in derailing of the recovery effort for global warming temperature increase.
Electricity prices paid by German households are to rise more than 20 percent by 2020 as Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes to remove her German nuclear energy. In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 CE became German law. With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or Atomic-Exit Law), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending all of Germany’s reliance on nuclear energy. German “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for Green Party displaced nuclear energy. Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 CE will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.
There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. left Democrat’s phase-out of nuclear facilities or for President Obama’s “national energy plan.” There are no estimates that identify President Obama’s long-term costs for his U.S. nuclear energy phase-out and October 1, 2010 nuclear cabal’s closure of Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository. There is no U.S. energy planning, only limited responses to energy crises. A U.S. nuclear repository is necessary for America's nuclear fuel cycle and is an integral part of American energy needs, nuclear electrical generation, and national defense programs, which satisfies defense needs and also global greenhouse gas reductions goals. The current blocking of U.S. nuclear power development and safe Yucca Mountain Repository long-term storage development has profound implications for U.S. nuclear base-load electricity generation availability, well into the 21st Century.
A global ideological effort is at play to impose a radical climate social agenda on the developing world at the behest of left Democrat “green” environmentalist groups. Obama’s White House as stated in December 12, 2011, that "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA 2009] also included over $90 billion in clean energy investments." None of President Obama's planning or funding involves addressing global warming temperature increase. None of Obama’s invested $90 billion has or will produce any reduction in greenhouse gases or reduction in global warming temperature or improve national security, health, or safety. President Obama and congressional Democrats/Republicans have engaged in a massive waste of green-energy funding that accomplish no benefits to counter global warning temperature increase. All U.S. government departments are now under direct control of President Obama and are influenced by those favored by left Democrats. U.S. government department reporting is now untrustworthy. Global warming temperature recovery effort is in a spiral of assured human life destruction.
Because U.S. and Europe media reporting is now intertwined with politicians’ retention of power and corruption, major media reporting can no longer be trusted. There has been a drop off in "climate change" reporting in 2009-2011 CE. What accounts for this change? A partial answer may be the difficulties facing the news media market over the last few years. Newspapers and periodicals are not a growth industry. TV market share drives TV news reporting while there is about $2 billion in U.S. 2012 election campaign funding available. The news media divide is not ideological, it is about capturing the larger market share and holding on to politically controlled media funding. Media reporting has been politically corrupted. Political media organizations that are reliable news-partners for political organizations are now more dependent upon politicians, lobbyists, organized labor, lawyer groups, and political action committees (PACs) for all-year and election-year support funding for media articles and advertising.
As media organizations downsize, an ever decreasing number of journalists are required to cover an ever increasing remit of issues. News media owners and senior staff have obvious vested self-interest in multi-billion dollar elections that place critical public interests beneath immediate news-media corporate profits. No longer are news media interest to save human races from annihilation. Republican and Democrat politicians do tun off the flow of $100s of billions of advertising-flow dollars if a news media organization was to report upon the elected ruling class’ global warming political follies. There will be no embarrassing media comments about greenhouse gas emission or global warming temperature increase. Human races are to quietly wait for 2050-2099 CE global warming destruction while the news media, politicians, and the politically connected increase their personal profits, power, and influence.
Europe-U.S. are locked into funding alternative fuels, renewable energy, and eliminating nuclear energy. China-India are building carbon “infrastructure lock-in” of their greatly expand carbon based economies. To save the human races involves this century reducing human carbon dioxide emissions to zero, which is a several trillion dollar political change. Since President Obama is leading from behind on implementing effective global warming issues, most likely ‘change’ and ‘hope’ will not occur in time to save human races.
Saturday, September 03, 2011
Methane is Primary Greenhouse-gas and Carbon Dioxide Is Secondary Forcing Agent
By David G. Eselius
The sun’s orbit establishes Earth’s historic heating and less heating cycles while Methane (CH4) gas is the primary global warming gas forcing agent and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a secondary gas forcing agent.
Resulting from inadequate incorporation of the historic and current importance of Methane global warming gas, sun’s orbit, energy use, and Earth’s population growth—the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to revise global warming projections in preparation for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 17/MOP 7 meeting in Durban, South Africa, 28 November - 9 December 2011.
The Role of Interglacial Cycles
Earth’s 100,000 year interglacial natural temperature cycle (before there were more than 6.7 billion people on earth) was first determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun. That is, the sun’s orbit, as identified in the equations of the Milankovitch Cycle identifies the sun’s position for Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling with an average temperature range excursion of about 1C-1.5°C. Reference: “Milankovitch Cycle Tutorial”
The sun’s orbit and resulting historic greenhouse-gas emissions are still in play. However, since the 1750 start of the Industrial Age and the adding the greenhouse-gases of more than 6.7 billion people, Earth’s Temperature Cycle has received an additional huge amount of global warming Methane and some Carbon Dioxide. Resulting are Earth’s increased global warming temperatures above historic temperatures.
Carbon cycle Methane gas was/is released by oceans during an interglacial warming period. Carbon cycle Methane is returned to oceans during the cooling period, all within a historic temperature excursion of about 1-1.5°C. Earth’s average temperature is now about 0.8 °C above interglacial high temperature warming 1-1.5°C zone.
Earth’s oceans and humans have produced 0.8 °C more global-warming-Methane-gas than during the normal warming of Earth Temperature Cycle. Increased human CH4/CO2 resulted from the post 1750 warming cycle that is above the more than 60 million year Earth Temperature Cycle. Now CH4 feedback seems to have a life of its own, and it is growing very rapidly and is dominating Earth’s Temperature Cycle.
To restore Earth’s temperature to the “normal” temperature range, greenhouse-gases Methane and Carbon Dioxide must be returned to interglacial greenhouse-gas range. Not to return to Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling zone means Earth’s biological life and a population of more than 9 billion people in 2050 are to exist while temperatures are increasing well above anything experienced for more than 60 million years. At best, under expected extreme temperature conditions, the long-term quality of life for more than 9 billion people will be externally poor and temperature is expected to continue to rise past 2050.
In 2050-2099, how far above “normal temperature” is unknown as well as the resulting affects upon biological life is also unknown, but has been postulated. Reference: EU’s "The 2°C target"
Although much is unknown of the human races’ future fate, most likely, human races are terminated 2050-2099 due to global warming temperature increase.
Methane greenhouse-gas has a newly calculated global warming potential (GWP) about 72 times greater than Carbon Dioxide. The Methane-clathrate energy stored within oceans is more than twice of all Earth’s stores of coal, oil, and natural gas. Methane is a much greater global warming force than Carbon Dioxide. To understand current global warming, understand first the current and historic interactions that Methane has with temperature regulation.
There are very important scientific and political misunderstandings concerning the part that Methane plays in global warming. It time to start correcting those misunderstandings.
NOTE: Interesting to know is by how much Methane/Carbon Dioxide leads/lags Earth’s orbit perturbations around the sun (re: Milankovitch Cycle). Analyzing Earth’s orbit (a orbital mechanics problem), temperature proxies, Methane/Carbon Dioxide supply sources, and global warming atmospheric densities will help resolve questions about cycles of interglacial and current temperature forcing.
Methane (CH4) vs. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations and global warming heating potentials determine the 1-1.5°C excursions zone. As part of the carbon cycle, within the colder glacial periods there is ocean carbon sinking (absorbing) of the atmospheric Methane. During warmer interglacial period there is more oceans carbon sourcing (venting) of Methane. If there were not now a large numbers of humans, the 100,000 year warm-cold-warm 1-1.5°C zone would be determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun. Now, it is human greenhouse-gases that have “tipped” global temperature regulation to new higher levels.
Analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-cores provides an accurate recording of relative temperature changes and CH4/CO2 atmospheric concentrations.
With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse-gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
With ignorance or malice, no national leader or IPCC or UNFCCC has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. Correcting global warming is going to be hard and costly, but must be accomplished quickly. The politicians have yet to understand global warming temperature increase and its consequences, which make starting global warming mitigation very difficult. Tempus Fugit
The sun’s orbit establishes Earth’s historic heating and less heating cycles while Methane (CH4) gas is the primary global warming gas forcing agent and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a secondary gas forcing agent.
Resulting from inadequate incorporation of the historic and current importance of Methane global warming gas, sun’s orbit, energy use, and Earth’s population growth—the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to revise global warming projections in preparation for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 17/MOP 7 meeting in Durban, South Africa, 28 November - 9 December 2011.
The Role of Interglacial Cycles
Earth’s 100,000 year interglacial natural temperature cycle (before there were more than 6.7 billion people on earth) was first determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun. That is, the sun’s orbit, as identified in the equations of the Milankovitch Cycle identifies the sun’s position for Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling with an average temperature range excursion of about 1C-1.5°C. Reference: “Milankovitch Cycle Tutorial”
The sun’s orbit and resulting historic greenhouse-gas emissions are still in play. However, since the 1750 start of the Industrial Age and the adding the greenhouse-gases of more than 6.7 billion people, Earth’s Temperature Cycle has received an additional huge amount of global warming Methane and some Carbon Dioxide. Resulting are Earth’s increased global warming temperatures above historic temperatures.
Carbon cycle Methane gas was/is released by oceans during an interglacial warming period. Carbon cycle Methane is returned to oceans during the cooling period, all within a historic temperature excursion of about 1-1.5°C. Earth’s average temperature is now about 0.8 °C above interglacial high temperature warming 1-1.5°C zone.
Earth’s oceans and humans have produced 0.8 °C more global-warming-Methane-gas than during the normal warming of Earth Temperature Cycle. Increased human CH4/CO2 resulted from the post 1750 warming cycle that is above the more than 60 million year Earth Temperature Cycle. Now CH4 feedback seems to have a life of its own, and it is growing very rapidly and is dominating Earth’s Temperature Cycle.
To restore Earth’s temperature to the “normal” temperature range, greenhouse-gases Methane and Carbon Dioxide must be returned to interglacial greenhouse-gas range. Not to return to Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling zone means Earth’s biological life and a population of more than 9 billion people in 2050 are to exist while temperatures are increasing well above anything experienced for more than 60 million years. At best, under expected extreme temperature conditions, the long-term quality of life for more than 9 billion people will be externally poor and temperature is expected to continue to rise past 2050.
In 2050-2099, how far above “normal temperature” is unknown as well as the resulting affects upon biological life is also unknown, but has been postulated. Reference: EU’s "The 2°C target"
Although much is unknown of the human races’ future fate, most likely, human races are terminated 2050-2099 due to global warming temperature increase.
Methane greenhouse-gas has a newly calculated global warming potential (GWP) about 72 times greater than Carbon Dioxide. The Methane-clathrate energy stored within oceans is more than twice of all Earth’s stores of coal, oil, and natural gas. Methane is a much greater global warming force than Carbon Dioxide. To understand current global warming, understand first the current and historic interactions that Methane has with temperature regulation.
There are very important scientific and political misunderstandings concerning the part that Methane plays in global warming. It time to start correcting those misunderstandings.
NOTE: Interesting to know is by how much Methane/Carbon Dioxide leads/lags Earth’s orbit perturbations around the sun (re: Milankovitch Cycle). Analyzing Earth’s orbit (a orbital mechanics problem), temperature proxies, Methane/Carbon Dioxide supply sources, and global warming atmospheric densities will help resolve questions about cycles of interglacial and current temperature forcing.
Methane (CH4) vs. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations and global warming heating potentials determine the 1-1.5°C excursions zone. As part of the carbon cycle, within the colder glacial periods there is ocean carbon sinking (absorbing) of the atmospheric Methane. During warmer interglacial period there is more oceans carbon sourcing (venting) of Methane. If there were not now a large numbers of humans, the 100,000 year warm-cold-warm 1-1.5°C zone would be determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun. Now, it is human greenhouse-gases that have “tipped” global temperature regulation to new higher levels.
Analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-cores provides an accurate recording of relative temperature changes and CH4/CO2 atmospheric concentrations.
"Antarctic Ice Bubbles Show CO2, Methane, at 800,000-Year Highs"
By Alex Morales - MAY 14, 2008
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctica's ice have revealed that levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the Earth's atmosphere are at their highest in 800,000 years, two studies in the journal Nature said.
Analysis of a 3.3-kilometer (2.1-mile) ice core extended the existing record of atmospheric greenhouse-gases by 150,000 years and showed that concentrations of CO2 and methane fluctuated within bands well below today's levels.
“That range highlights the fact that man, through burning fossil fuels and land-use change, has changed the concentration of greenhouse-gases in the atmosphere in a substantial way.”
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last year (2007) blamed global warming on emissions of such gases and warned of increased flooding and drought as temperatures continue to rise. The team found that greenhouse-gas concentrations tracked temperature changes throughout the 800,000 years.
The amount of CO2 and methane now in the atmosphere are 28 percent and 124 percent, respectively, above their highest levels before industrialization.
The scientists uncovered the lowest measured concentration of carbon dioxide -- a value of 172 parts per million -- 667,000 years ago. The minimum value in the 650,000-year time series documented prior to today's [May 4, 2008] papers was about 180 ppm.
[NOTE: Ice-core concentration of CO2 and CH4 is determined by a direct chemical analysis of the bubbles. Temperature proxies are reconstructed from deuterium (D) readings that are within the same bubbles containing CO2 and CH4.
Deuterium is a stable, naturally occurring hydrogen isotope. Deuterium kinetic isotope effect is temperature sensitive and is used as a proxy for temperature. The correlation between the ice-core temperature and NH4/CO2 is nearly perfect. See Reference: “650,000 year CO2, NH4, and Temperature”
Clearly, if ocean temperatures go up, less carbon dioxide and methane can be bound to the ocean waters, which are why CH4/CO2 concentration in the atmosphere goes up. The release of global warming-gases is known as out gassing. Additionally, there are very vast amounts of stored methane (methane-clathrates) in polar ocean and land regions. As ocean and surface temperatures and ocean surface current temperatures increase, methane is out gassed, added to polar regional warming, and increased regional temperature (i.e. polar regional temperature feedback loop). The carbon cycle also absorbs Methane and Carbon Dioxide in the cooling cycle. –DGE]
The [greenhouse-gas concentrations] data came from analysis by scientists working on the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA). They studied a 3,270-meter tube of ice extracted from the surrounding ice sheet from the southern continent. Bloomberg reported in February last year that the trends in the 650,000-year series had been found to stretch further back in history.
Pre-industrialization
The findings widen the CO2 range prior to industrialization to between 172 and 300 ppm. Man-made emissions have raised the atmospheric concentration of the gas to about 385 parts per million in 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said April 23.
Methane prior to industrialization fluctuated between 350 and 800 parts per billion, according to the researchers. Present-day levels are about 1,770 ppb, they said.
“The fundamental conclusion that today's concentrations of these greenhouse-gases have no past analogue in the ice-core record remains firm,” Ed Brook, a scientist at Oregon State University, wrote in an accompanying article in Nature. “The remarkably strong correlations of methane and carbon dioxide with temperature reconstructions also stand.”
In the so-called paleo-climate archive, temperature increases typically came before gains in atmospheric carbon dioxide. That doesn't mean that CO2 doesn't act as a trigger for warming, he said.
[NOTE: Sun’s positions determine the limits of Earth’s warming and cooling. Over time, it is the warming greenhouse-gas Methane that does the “more warming” or “less warming,” depending upon the sun’s positions (re: Milankovitch Cycle). Carbon Dioxide does not have the out gas capacity of Methane. Therefore Carbon Dioxide plays a lesser roll in temperature change. Until after 1750, there were minimum forest clearing and burning, and human emissions for the Earth Temperature Cycle to deal with. –DGE]
Ocean Currents
“We know that if the greenhouse-gases had not responded to the physical changes within the climate system at the end of ice ages, the planet would actually not have made the transition to warm phases.” “The warming was simply not enough without the increase of greenhouse-gases.”
Historical changes in gas levels can be attributed to alterations in ocean currents, tropical wetlands and vegetation, and the advance and retreat of polar ice sheets, locking methane up in the soil/oceans and then releasing it.
“Today, the concentration of CO2 is only marginally driven by these historical changes.” “More than 90 percent of these CO2 changes are driven directly through the emission of so-called new carbon dioxide that has not been in the climate system for the last 60 million years, because that carbon dioxide comes from fossil fuel reservoirs” that are burned for energy.
Ambitious Goals
Over the last 150 years, the concentration of CO2 has risen more than 100 times faster than any recorded change derived from the ice cores. That raises concern about whether global warming can be contained to within the +2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) that the European Union is targeting, he said.
[NOTE: Over the last 150 years the concentration of CH4 has risen much faster than CO2. –DGE]
“The speed of the increase of carbon dioxide [and methane] concentration in the atmosphere makes us conclude that climate goals such as the 2-degree Celsius goal have become now very, very ambitious goals to achieve: not impossible, but by now very ambitious.”
Fin
With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse-gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
With ignorance or malice, no national leader or IPCC or UNFCCC has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. Correcting global warming is going to be hard and costly, but must be accomplished quickly. The politicians have yet to understand global warming temperature increase and its consequences, which make starting global warming mitigation very difficult. Tempus Fugit
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