No Politician Will Talk About It - Global Warming Water

Water scarcity is even deemed the most immediate environmental risk to the world.

Financial Times sustainability conference in New York City issued dire warnings and a call to arms for investors and corporations around the world along with governments.

"Water scarcity is the new global warming"

Commentary: Management is key to prosperity and survival

By Thomas Kostigen

March 30, 2012

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The global director of water stewardship for Coca-Cola Co. says that water risk isn’t imminent; it’s already manifest.

Greg Koch, who spoke at the Financial Times sustainability conference in New York City on Thursday, issued dire warnings and a call to arms for investors and corporations around the world along with governments.

And he wasn’t alone.

Robert Hormats, Under Secretary of State for Economics, Energy and the Environment says disputes or outright water wars are imminent in the near future.

Here’s why: an increasing population with needs for more energy and food is putting undue demand on the world’s water supply. So much so that by 2025 some two-thirds of the world’s population will experience some type of water shortage, according to myriad estimates.

Water scarcity is even deemed the most immediate environmental risk to the world, according to Usha Rao-Monari, the global head of water, global infrastructure and natural resources for the International Finance Corporation.

There are two sorts of water risks, she says: physical risk, which is not having enough water at the source, and economic risk, which is the cost of moving water around.

Both are extreme and being experienced throughout the world right now.

In terms of solutions, Rao-Monari sees three: financial, innovation, and government policy. Each of these can play a critical role in water quality and delivery.

Not long ago, climate change and carbon emissions were the environmental demons knocking at our doors. 'The Carbon Disclosure Project' (CDP) sprung up out of this threat to measure, disclosure and share information among companies. Now it’s water.

The CDP also has a growing water initiative where companies report their water policies. The CDP Water Disclosure Global Report 2011 finds that 57% of the 190 publicly listed organizations that participated in the survey report board-level oversight of water policies, strategies, or plans. By comparison, a report released by CDP in September 2011 showed that 94% of Global 500 companies report board-level oversight of climate change, suggesting that corporate understanding of water as a business concern trails that of climate change.

To enhance investor analysis of corporate water risk and to support corporate action on water stewardship, CERES, the Boston-based coalition of environmental organizations and corporations, developed a go-to water gauge. Backed by investors managing over $2 trillion in assets, the “Aqua Gauge” provides a benchmark for best practice and enables investors to assess, scorecard and compare companies on their management of water risk.

Brooke Barton, the senior manager for water and corporate programs at CERES, says “investors need to get water on their governance agenda.” This includes not only, say, how water scarcity would affect a beverage maker or food producer, but also municipalities via their bond offerings. If water rates change due to shrinking supply, rates would likely rise and bond prices, in turn, lower.

I have long been vocal about the need for water conservation, efficiency, and management. In the developing world this is especially needed. Geography plays a huge role in water accessibility.

One of the biggest opportunities for social as well as environmental impact is through water investing.

Bennett Freeman, senior vice president for sustainability research and policy for Calvert Investments, notes that China holds 21% of the world’s population but only 7% of global water supply. Its water needs are massive. Therefore, water investment opportunities are massive.

Water is life

The entire developing world, as it develops, will need more water. The oil, gas, and timber industries in Africa, for example, take supply away from the direct consumption needs of freshwater supply. Management will be key to growth and prosperity.

And while the U.S. experiences water shortages throughout a majority of states, there is relative access to fresh water. It’s this skill of management and technology that could be a major U.S. export. Yet, we squander much of our skills and management.

Hormats says this is wrong. The U.S. State Department is seeking to export these skills in conjunction with the private sector, he says. “There is an important opportunity for the State Department to work with private companies and help other countries purify and manage [their water],” Hormats says.

Rao-Monari says that one of the first things that should be done is to put a price on water. She is right. There needs to be an established understanding from which we can manage water. It can exact incentives and penalties — a tool for better management.

Water is both a risk and an opportunity. Tech entrepreneurs and innovators take note. Billions of dollars worth of municipal and private projects are coming down the pike (Barton at CERES mentions projects in Nevada, Utah, and Colorado). And that’s just here in America.

[NOTE: Water remains a legislated political topic. There are many prices for water that vary by water districts. What is very poorly managed by politicians are groundwater and aquifer drafting and recharge. No matter how many water projects there are, politicians and their special interests always take their cut of the action. As it now stands, too many politicians accept the 2050-2055 CE destruction of human races as cost of doing their business as usual.  --DGE]  

Without water there is no energy. Without water there is no food. Without water, in other words, there is no life. Seems like that should be enough of a risk to warrant more attention.

As Koch pointed out, this isn’t a risk happening in the future. We’re dealing with these risks now.

Many people from around the world who came to the FT Sustainable conference agreed.

Water isn’t everywhere and there isn’t always a drop to drink. We need to invest in programs that find ways to get more.

Thomas Kostigen is the author of “The Green Blue Book: The Simple Water-Savings Guide to Everything in Your Life.”

Fin

The hydrologic water cycle describes the cycles water. The current and projected potable water shortage is caused by several factors:

#   The only way to "create" large amounts of potable water is by desalination, which consumes huge amounts of energy (that must be clean nuclear energy).

#   Increased populations require more potable water to support their lives.

#   Increased gross domestic products (GDPs or increased wealth) increase water requirements.

#   Increased atmospheric global warming temperature results in increased amount of moisture suspended within the atmosphere. there is less surface water available and ground aquifers are overdrafted. With global warming there is a net surface riparian and aquifer water loss, evaporation increase, water mining increases, net ice water loss, net ocean level rise, major weather changes, and additional factors that alter the hydrologic cycle.  

#   Most large scale water investments expect to function past 2050-2055 CE. However, if global warming political responses continues the way they have since 1750 CE, it is unlikely human races exist past 2055 CE.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most likely projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, evil politicians, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. No one has proposed changes to global warming business as usual politics. There are no formed plans to alter the course of global warming temperature increase.   

The entire developing world, as it develops, will need more water. China holds 21% of the world’s population but only 7% of global water supply. Its water needs are massive. Therefore, water investment opportunities are massive.

Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020 CE, in 2030-2040 CE Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature. Postulated is wipe out of agriculture and cattle ranching occurs as sand dunes and dust bowls appear across five U.S. states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north. By +3 oC major to massive dust storms sweep the U.S. Midwest. Saltwater inundation of coastal groundwater stores will expand. Groundwater/aquifer pollution such as saltwater encroachment associated with over drafting of aquifers or natural leaching from natural occurring deposits are natural sources of pollution. U.S. Ogallala Aquifer (aka, High Plains Aquifer) is dry.

At +4 oC above 1750 CE preindustrial temperature, the Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke. Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming. The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away. U.S. Ogallala Aquifer (aka, High Plains Aquifer) is dry. Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa. Around +4 oC, rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic Region (like Siberia) sea and land permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) producing a temperature rise. Melting ice caps and sea level rises have displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece. More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia. Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes result in the Amazon drying up. With temperature increase, more moisture is present in the air, more surface water evaporation, and more aquifer over drafting occurs. There is a resulting large transfer of potable aquifer water (and surface water) to oceans and atmosphere.  


Catastrophic global warming events are suffering from coordinated benign neglect and political/media misdirection. The main media continues to be active in deceiving humanity as to the peril and catastrophic events of global warming leading up to sure 2050-2099 CE demise of human races, most likely 2050-2055 CE.   

Before investing in environmental projects understand some of the basic physics involved with your investment.  You can always change your investment portfolio, but you cannot change the laws of physics, GDPs, aquifer over drafting, riparian hypoxia, ice melt, rates of global temperature increase, nor population growth.   

Global Warming - Drought

Rev 12 Jan 2012

According to a study published in the July 14, 2000, issue of Science, one-third of the world's population is water-stressed, with 8 percent classified as severely water-stressed, including the western United States and northern Mexico, South America, India, China, Africa surrounding the Sahara Desert, and southern Africa and Australia. As population grows and weather extremes occur, water “stress” increases.  

The May 19th 2005 article identifies “survival of the Chinese nation” that is threatened by looming water shortages. If anything, global water problems have gotten worse over time.  It is the same old problem as is experienced with global warming.  Politicians know there is a life threatening problem but refuse to respond. The problem gets worse, people start to die, and than too late the politicians seek help from others.    

Diminishing potable water availability is a result of two increasing forces: increasing populations growing beyond the point of resource sustainability and global warming climate change.  The problems of climate change are easier to solve than are unsustainable population increases.  

Where as global warming results in climate change, climate change weather patterns result in more pronounced droughts, floods, storms, temperatures, etc. When water is available there may be more water available.  When droughts occur they may be more severe and longer in duration, perhaps 10-20  year duration.  China, U.S., and world will experience more severe droughts.  In the U.S., mid-West and California droughts will become increasingly (life threatening) severe. More moisture is held within the atmosphere, deposited in oceans, and is over drafted from groundwater.  By 2030, U.S. politicians will seek help from others.  Perhaps they build the Canadian Keystone XL pipeline #2 to transport water to the water industry instead of sending more oil to the oil industry. Water will be $200 per barrel, oil goes for $100 per barrel.           

Several billion years ago, water was created by the atmosphere by rubbing two parts of hydrogen together with on part oxygen (H2O). There remains no other way to “create water.”  We can make large amounts of water potable by desalination, but that requires a large amount of clean nuclear energy, which is not available.  Another way to increase water availability is through increasing groundwater storage. Recharge groundwater reserves during wet years.  During dry years, draw down stored ground water reserves. However, much of aquifer storage capacity has been destroyed by land subsidence leaving less room for artificial recharge (AR) storage. Siting for expand surface water storage is limited.  Nether the less, recommend is expanded use of AR during wet years as part of the aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) water management system that builds up groundwater reserves.

U.S. Studies Related to the Effects of Ground-Water Withdrawals  

Fresh groundwater is 30.1% of total freshwater.  

There are three basic locations of water storage that occur in the planetary water cycle. Water is stored in the atmosphere; water is stored on the surface of the earth, and water stored in the ground. Ocean level rises result from transfer of potable water to sea water. By 2100, the oceans are expected to be at least 1-meter (39.4 inches) higher rustling from fresh water deposits and thermal expansion.  

Below normal groundwater levels now occur though out the U.S.

Projects dealing with ground-water withdrawals range in scope from monitoring water levels in wells to regional studies involving geophysics, geology, and mathematical modeling. Selected examples of the several hundred such studies conducted in recent years are described below.

Land Subsidence - Land subsidence occurs when large amounts of ground water have been withdrawn from certain types of rocks, such as fine-grained sediments. The rock compacts because the water is partly responsible for holding the ground up. When the water is withdrawn, the rocks falls in on itself. Subsidence is a global problem and, in the United States, more than 17,000 square miles in 45 States, an area roughly the size of New Hampshire and Vermont combined, have been directly affected by subsidence. More than 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the Nation has occurred because of exploitation of underground water, and the increasing development of land and water resources threatens to exacerbate existing land-subsidence problems and initiate new ones. In many areas of the arid Southwest, and in more humid areas underlain by soluble rocks such as limestone, gypsum, or salt, land subsidence is an often-overlooked environmental consequence of our land- and water-use practices.  Compaction of soils in some aquifer systems can accompany excessive ground-water pumping and it is by far the single largest cause of subsidence. Excessive pumping of such aquifer systems has resulted in permanent subsidence and related ground failures. In some systems, when large amounts of water are pumped, the subsoil compacts, thus reducing in size and number the open pore spaces in the soil the previously held water. This can result in a permanent reduction in the total storage capacity of the aquifer system.

Land subsidence due to the pumping of ground water occurs in nearly every State. It causes damage to buildings, roads, bridges, and canals; increases the incidence of coastal flooding; and can permanently reduce the capacity of aquifers to store water. Documented costs of subsidence are known to exceed $250 million per year within just Houston and Galveston, Texas, New Orleans, Louisiana, Santa Clara County, California, Santa Cruz/Monterey Counties, California, and the San Joaquin Valley, California.

Scientists have made long-term measurements of subsidence that resulted from ground-water withdrawal in a variety of environments and has developed predictive models that are used today throughout the world. For example, scientists assisted the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) in the design and alignment of canals in the Central Arizona Project and the Central Valley Project of California to ensure that these multimillion-dollar structures would not fail as a result of surface cracking and changes in land-surface configuration.

Seawater Intrusion - Many communities in coastal areas have been or potentially can be affected by seawater intrusion caused by heavy pumping of ground water. This seawater intrusion threatens major sources of freshwater relied upon by coastal communities for their water needs. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with other agencies, has been determining the geologic and human factors that control seawater intrusion.

For example, since 1953, Santa Cruz/Monterey Counties, California, are experiencing growing Monterey Bay seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers. Current investigators discovered that the potential for additional seawater intrusion into the deeper aquifer from outcrops of the aquifer in submarine canyons is greater than originally thought.

Consumptive Use of Lower Colorado River Water - Accounting for consumptive use of lower Colorado River water in the States of Arizona, California, and Nevada is required by the U.S. Supreme Court Decree of 1964, Arizona v. California. Water pumped from some wells outside the flood plain of the river has not previously been included in the accounting because the subsurface limits of the aquifer that is hydraulically connected to the river were not defined. To aid the BOR in implementing the Decree, there has been developed a method to identify wells outside the flood plain that yield water that will be replaced by water from the river. Using hydrologic principles, results of previous hydrologic and geologic studies, and newly obtained gravity data to determine the extent and thickness of the river aquifer, which comprises sediments and sedimentary rocks that are hydraulically connected to the river. The method provides a uniform criterion of identification for all users that pump water from wells completed in the river aquifer.  

Hoover Dam of the Colorado River -  When the rain stops, rivers and streams are feed by groundwater discharge and snow melt within the hydrologic water cycle. Without groundwater discharge surface water flow becomes seasonal. The man-made lake formed by Hoover Dam and Colorado River now stands at 39 percent capacity, largely because of an 11-year drought on the Colorado River.  U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), which manages the dam, is working on new equipment that would allow Hoover to operate at lower levels. The surface of Lake Mead has dropped almost 100 vertical feet since 1999. It now stands at 1,117 feet above sea level, its lowest level since 1965, when water was withheld upstream to fill Lake Powell for the first time. At 1075 feet is the point that would trigger the first-ever water shortage declaration and force reduced deliveries to Nevada and Arizona. A continued drop, to 1,025 feet, would hit supplies for California, which has rights to the largest share of the river. Elevation 895 is considered "dead pool," when the water is too low to be released through the dam without the use of pumps. Electricity from Hoover covers peak demand for numerous cities, including Riverside, Banning, and Colton, and helps Metropolitan Water District of Southern California pump supplies from Lake Havasu, through the 242-mile Colorado River Aqueduct, to Lake Mathews. Electricity available from Hoover has declined 29 percent since 1980. That has local utilities buying power on the open market, where rates are up to four times higher. The cost has been passed on to consumers. The Hoover Power Allocation Act of 1984 expires in 2017 - government water and electricity should then be sold at free-market prices.  

Because of water restraints, there is considerable doubt on the ability of Las Vegas, and the Southwest as a whole, to grow at anywhere close to the present pace.  

According to calculations, there is a 50 percent chance the Hoover Dam Lake Mead reservoir will dry up by 2021. The study assumes that by 2050 the Colorado River will experience a 10 to 30 percent drop in the amount of runoff it receives from snow that falls and melts on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains.      

Water Mining - Fossil water or paleowater is groundwater that has remained sealed in an aquifer for a long period of time. Water can rest underground in "fossil aquifers" for thousands or even millions of years.  Fossil water is a non-renewable resource. The extraction of water from such non-replenishing groundwater reserves (known as low safe-yield reserves) is known in hydrology as "water mining". If water is pumped from a well at a withdrawal rate that exceeds the natural recharge rate (which is very low or zero for a fossil aquifer), the water table drops, forming a depression in the water levels around the well. Water mining has been blamed for contributing to rising sea levels.  Aquifer draw-down or over drafting and the pumping of fossil water increases the total amount of water in the hydrosphere, and may be responsible for up to one quarter of the Earth's total sea level rise since the beginning of the 20th century.  

Water Levels in the High Plains Aquifer - The U.S. wastes more water than it uses. It takes 57 gallons of water to produce a pound of corn and 855 gallons of water to produce a pound of corn-fed beef. It takes 3,200 gallons to grow one bushel of corn for food.  It can take up to 2500 gallons of water to create 2.5 gallons of corn-ethanol to feed cars. We need some “change” and “hope” leadership if we are going to solve growing water problems.  

Because of widespread irrigation, farming accounts for 94 percent of the groundwater use. Irrigated agriculture forms the base of the regional economy. It supports nearly one-fifth of the wheat, corn, cotton, and cattle produced in the United States. Crops provide grains and hay for confined feeding of cattle and hogs and for dairies. The cattle feedlots support a large meatpacking industry. Without irrigation from the Ogallala Aquifer, there would be a much smaller regional population and far less economic activity.

The Ogallala Aquifer is being both depleted and polluted. Irrigation withdraws much groundwater, yet little of it is replaced by recharge. Since large-scale irrigation began in the 1940s, water levels have declined more than 30 meters (100 feet) in parts of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In the 1980s and 1990s, the rate of groundwater mining, or overdraft, lessened, but still averaged approximately 82 centimeters (2.7 feet) per year.    

The High Plains aquifer underlies an area of about 174,000 square miles in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. The economy of the High Plains area, which provides a major part of the food supply of the Nation, is dependent on the successful growing of crops. Withdrawal of large quantities of ground water by wells and redistribution of surface water in ditches and canals, all for irrigation purposes, have changed the natural recharge and discharge of the High Plains aquifer. About 30 percent of the ground water used for irrigation in the United States is pumped from the High Plains aquifer of the Midwest. This intense development led the USGS to undertake in 1978 the first comprehensive assessment of the ground-water resources of the High Plains aquifer. Scientists found significant declines from pre development water levels in many areas. The largest declines were in the central and the southern High Plains, where declines locally exceeded 100 feet. Declines were much smaller and less extensive in the northern High Plains, where extensive irrigation has been practiced for a shorter time. In a few parts of the northern High Plains, increases in water levels were caused by seepage from surface-water diversions.  

Because of the critical need for a unified summary of ground-water information on a nationwide scale, a ground-water atlas of the United States was compiled. The atlas summarizes Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) Program (initiated in 1978 and was completed in 1995) results and other reports of the USGS, various States and local agencies, and articles published in scientific journals. The RASA Program produced 1,105 reports. However, it takes more than reports to change a water system.

Although the information is available, critical water information seldom is acted upon by politicians. U.S. political systems are non responsive, even when the critical situation is a well known growing crisis.

China

A lingering drought has caused a severe water shortage in East China's Jiangxi province, affecting the lives of over one million people, local authorities said Wednesday. The drought has sharply reduced water levels in Poyang Lake, the country's largest freshwater lake, and rivers in Jiangxi, threatening water supplies to more than one million people residing near the lake and rivers, said an official with the province's flood control and drought relief headquarters. The water-surface area of Poyang Lake shrank to less than 200 square km this month, or 5 percent of its full size, revealing much of its underwater terrain and stranding fishing boats. Meager rainfall was the main reason for the drought. The province's rainfall in 2011 was 20 percent less than the amount that fell on average annually. Precipitation was especially scarce in the past two months, extending the drought season in the region. In addition to the lack of rainfall, excessive sand dredging was also to blame for the situation as water levels have dropped with the riverbed, making it harder to pump out groundwater, said an expert with the province's water resources department.  "1m affected by drought in E China," Updated: 2012-01-11, China Daily

There has not been change in China’s hydrological conditions for more than the last six years. Perhaps China is in a 10-20 year severe cycle of droughts.  Perhaps China’s water cycle does not change for another 50 years.   

China and water - "Drying up"

The Chinese must act fast to conserve their country's shrinking water supply

The Economist

May 19th 2005

BEIJING | from the print edition

As a deputy prime minister in 1999, Wen Jiabao warned that the very “survival of the Chinese nation” was threatened by looming water shortages. Mr Wen has since taken over as prime minister, and earned robust applause in parliament this spring when he promised “clean water for the people”. To that end, his government says it will spend an extra $240m this year. But this is a drop in the ocean. Never especially blessed with water, in recent years China has seen its supplies fall to dangerously low levels as it faces drought, rising demand and the combined effects of decades of pollution and misguided policies. Senior officials and international agencies are equally gloomy.

One in three country-dwellers in China lacks access to safe drinking water. More than 100 big cities, of which half are deemed “seriously threatened”, are short of water. Water tables are dropping by a metre or more every year across much of northern China. Even in Beijing, supply per head now stands at a perilously low 300 cubic metres (66,000 gallons) a year. Reduced flow rates on China's greatest rivers have made hydro plants reduce badly needed power output: many smelters, paper mills and petrochemical plants are no longer sure of getting the huge amounts of water they require. Droughts, historically more common in northern China, are now hitting the south too. This year Guangdong province, home to 110m people, has had a 40% drop in rainfall.

Misguided pricing policies have made matters a lot worse. Until 1985, most users were not charged at all, so it made little sense for enterprises to invest in treatment and recycling technology or for farmers to fret about wasteful irrigation. Water prices in China have risen only slowly in the past 20 years and are still among the world's lowest. Most Chinese water is bought at around 40% below cost. Even in parched Beijing, city officials are hesitating to press ahead with planned increases to the break-even point of around six yuan ($0.72) a cubic metre. Nationwide, prices are set at different levels for different sorts of users by a jumble of local and central bureaucracies, all wary of slowing economic growth.

John McAlister, head of AquaBioTronic.com, a water-recycling firm, says China is committing “ecological suicide” with its current policies and should put prices up to 20-40 yuan a cubic metre. He argues that foreigners ought to take the lead in arguing for such increases if they hope to continue to benefit from China's economic boom. Alas, he has had as much trouble convincing foreign firms of the urgency of China's water crisis as he has had convincing Chinese firms to invest in his technology.

Most probable projections over to 2050 include increasing global waring temperatures, uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.  

Lacking national crisis management leadership, recommendations, and action, it is unlikely politicians will change water laws or invest in a water future just to accommodate global warming droughts, increase populations, or prevent the end of human races.