Global Warming - Beginning, Middle, End

Rev 20 Jan 2012  

It is the accumulation of increasing atmospheric global warming greenhouse gases that result in global warming temperature increase.  Major components of greenhouses are carbon dioxide (CH4) and methane (CH4).   

Some scientists raised the alarm that large quantities of methane might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas methane clathrate (aka, hydrate) deposits trapped in marine and permafrost-associated sediments. Even if only a fraction of the liberated methane were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas and the persistence of its carbon dioxide oxidation product (CO2) heightens concerns that gas clathrate dissociation could represent a slow geologic tipping point for Earth's contemporary period of global warming. However, in human race terms, current global warming rate-of-increase is not slow; but it is about ten times faster than the beginning of the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma, which is the greatest recorded geologic mass extinction event. (Ma - megaannum is a unit of time equal to one million years)

The 1750 Christan Era (CE) Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) methane and carbon dioxide have accumulated within the atmosphere in massive amounts.  By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change.  Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as a result of human activity.  Scientists suggest that left unchecked, too soon Modern Global Warming accumulated warming forces will exceed natural carbon dioxide and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.

Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook, 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.”  Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now.  This hydrocarbon infrastructure is going to last another 50 years plus, at least.  Those nations and others are “locking-in the global carbon budget.”

Following table is listing 2009 CE annual carbon dioxide emissions estimates (in thousands of CO2 metric tonnes): China 7,037,864, United States, European Union 3,623,402, India 1,629,959, Russia 1,528,568, Japan 1,092,878, Germany 755,140. Without a rapid and large expansion of nuclear energy replacing proposed and existing hydrocarbon facilities, there will be a 2017 CE “locking-in the global carbon budget.”   

There is a large time lag to rebuild current hydrocarbon infrastructure into new clean energy infrastructure that results in a Earth temperature-decrease responses to emitted greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural Arctic methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.   

Because of 250 years of growing human carbon dioxide emissions, Earth’s temperature increase exceeds life terminating +5 oC at 2050-2099 CE. Natural Arctic triggered “methane clathrate gun effect” will force a faster rate of temperature increase. That is, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC sooner with increased atmospheric methane content than with carbon dioxide emissions alone. Estimates to “turn off” the methane clathrate gun are to be reviewed. Human races-end depends upon the established regional and global temperature ranges.   

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Greenhouse concentrations 1750 CE levels were historic carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Current concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb). The Methane concentration increase of ~164% is very disturbing; indicated is that the Arctic Ocean surface to mid-depth temperatures have increased causing weakening of the methane clathrate cap-over-sediments. Global warming is a matter of understanding projected events based upon past and current events. The Arctic methane is now entering the atmosphere; as Arctic and global temperatures increase, methane releases increases, thus increasing global temperatures to End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma levels.

Technically the current East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments are identified within the below Science abstract.

"Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf"

Science, 5 March 2010:

Vol. 327 no. 5970 pp. 1246-1250

DOI: 10.1126/science.1182221

By Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Anatoly Salyuk, Vladimir Yusupov, Denis Kosmach, and Örjan Gustafsson

ABSTRACT

Transfer to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in place. Here, we show that more than 5000 at-sea observations of dissolved methane demonstrates that greater than 80% of ESAS bottom waters and greater than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane regarding to the atmosphere. The current atmospheric venting flux, which is composed of a diffusive component and a gradual ebullition component, is on par with previous estimates of methane venting from the entire World Ocean. Leakage of methane through shallow ESAS waters needs to be considered in interactions between the bio-geosphere and a warming Arctic climate.

Received for publication 21 September 2009.

Accepted for publication 21 January 2010

Fin

A non technical article of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane location is identified below.

"Massive Methane Melt off Siberia"

—By Julia Whitty

Mother Jones, Thu Mar. 4, 2010

Arctic seabed stores of methane are now destabilizing and venting vast stores of frozen methane—a greenhouse gas more than 30 times potent than carbon dioxide. The paper, in the prestigious journal Science, reports the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf—long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane—is instead perforated and leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Melting of even a fraction of the clathrates stored in that shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming. Lead author Natalia Shakhova Shakhova of the International Arctic Research Center tells U of Alaska Fairbanks: "The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans. Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area encompassing more than three-quarter million square miles of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean—three times larger than the nearby Siberian wetlands formerly considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane.

Shakhova’s research shows the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is already emitting 7 teragrams (1 teragram = 1.1 million tons) of methane yearly, about as much as the all the oceans of the world.

"Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," says Shakhova. "If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be significantly larger."

From 2003 through 2008 the researchers took annual research cruises on the shelf, sampling seawater at various depths, and sampling the air above the ocean. Their findings:

■ More than 80 percent of the deep water and greater than half of surface water had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater.

■ In some areas, the saturation levels reached at least 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher in the winter.

■ In the air directly above the ocean surface, methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hot spots. (This, combined with results from a winter expedition, showed the methane is not only being dissolved in the water but also bubbling out into the atmosphere as well.)

■ Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10 percent higher than the global baseline, yet those registered over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf rose another 5 to 10 percent higher than that.

[NOTE: Because Earth's climate base has yet to increase enough to balance with warming forces (and Arctic methane clathrate gas release is temperature and pressure associated), even if all human hydrocarbon emissions were now ceased, there is to be a considerable amount of Arctic methane yet to be released over centuries, which results in more global warming.  --DGE]

In the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane doesn’t have enough time to oxidize, and more of it rises to the surface and escapes into the atmosphere. That fact, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, adds an extreme volatility [positive regenerative feedback] to this calculated variable in the climate models.

"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow clathrate [aka, hydrate] deposits will alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times," says Shakhova. [Resulting from continued human hydrocarbon greenhouse gas release, it appears there shall be too soon considerably more than one percent of the Arctic methane clathrate release. --DGE]

Fin

It appears there are NO technical articles available that identify Arctic northern Canada and Alaskan sea shoreline methane venting into the atmosphere; which is an indication North American politicians control of funding for science education and research. To achieve covert political ends, untoward politicians control large funding and responses through selected small government funding of education and R&D institutions. Arctic northern Canada, U.S., Greenland, Norway, and Russian sea shoreline methane venting are within the continental boundaries and need to be part of national greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Antarctica is another region of methane emissions interest.    

Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people 2050 CE.  No national leader (excepting China government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011") has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase. U.S. political responses to global warming are chaotic and global warming is at the crisis point.  

It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over time, by stopping human GHGs there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric GHGs concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit and reduce the size of the human population rate-of-growth. Implementation of some form of geoengineering is to be considered. Extremely limiting use of hydrocarbon energy is the most feasible and timely action that may reduce global warming temperature increase.   

As a political ploy to remain dependent upon hydrocarbon economies, Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and are eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building 2017 CE "carbon budget infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies. Before 2020 CE, to save the human races involves significant reductions of human carbon dioxide emissions, which costs several trillions US dollars. China has introduced its nuclear construction program; but it may be too little too late.  

China has built hundreds of new coal fired electrical generators to support their years of economic expansion. China's greenhouse gas emissions are likely to start falling only after 2030 CE. India needs help to reduce carbon their emissions. The U.S. politicians will not reduce global warming emissions prior to 2030 CE; well beyond 2017 CE tripping point of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in. Changing political dynamics poses the major obstacle to changing national hydrocarbon economies to that of hydrocarbon-free economies. Without actual global energy-use changes there is no hope for human races, they end 2050-2099 CE.

Global Warming - Drought

Rev 12 Jan 2012

According to a study published in the July 14, 2000, issue of Science, one-third of the world's population is water-stressed, with 8 percent classified as severely water-stressed, including the western United States and northern Mexico, South America, India, China, Africa surrounding the Sahara Desert, and southern Africa and Australia. As population grows and weather extremes occur, water “stress” increases.  

The May 19th 2005 article identifies “survival of the Chinese nation” that is threatened by looming water shortages. If anything, global water problems have gotten worse over time.  It is the same old problem as is experienced with global warming.  Politicians know there is a life threatening problem but refuse to respond. The problem gets worse, people start to die, and than too late the politicians seek help from others.    

Diminishing potable water availability is a result of two increasing forces: increasing populations growing beyond the point of resource sustainability and global warming climate change.  The problems of climate change are easier to solve than are unsustainable population increases.  

Where as global warming results in climate change, climate change weather patterns result in more pronounced droughts, floods, storms, temperatures, etc. When water is available there may be more water available.  When droughts occur they may be more severe and longer in duration, perhaps 10-20  year duration.  China, U.S., and world will experience more severe droughts.  In the U.S., mid-West and California droughts will become increasingly (life threatening) severe. More moisture is held within the atmosphere, deposited in oceans, and is over drafted from groundwater.  By 2030, U.S. politicians will seek help from others.  Perhaps they build the Canadian Keystone XL pipeline #2 to transport water to the water industry instead of sending more oil to the oil industry. Water will be $200 per barrel, oil goes for $100 per barrel.           

Several billion years ago, water was created by the atmosphere by rubbing two parts of hydrogen together with on part oxygen (H2O). There remains no other way to “create water.”  We can make large amounts of water potable by desalination, but that requires a large amount of clean nuclear energy, which is not available.  Another way to increase water availability is through increasing groundwater storage. Recharge groundwater reserves during wet years.  During dry years, draw down stored ground water reserves. However, much of aquifer storage capacity has been destroyed by land subsidence leaving less room for artificial recharge (AR) storage. Siting for expand surface water storage is limited.  Nether the less, recommend is expanded use of AR during wet years as part of the aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) water management system that builds up groundwater reserves.

U.S. Studies Related to the Effects of Ground-Water Withdrawals  

Fresh groundwater is 30.1% of total freshwater.  

There are three basic locations of water storage that occur in the planetary water cycle. Water is stored in the atmosphere; water is stored on the surface of the earth, and water stored in the ground. Ocean level rises result from transfer of potable water to sea water. By 2100, the oceans are expected to be at least 1-meter (39.4 inches) higher rustling from fresh water deposits and thermal expansion.  

Below normal groundwater levels now occur though out the U.S.

Projects dealing with ground-water withdrawals range in scope from monitoring water levels in wells to regional studies involving geophysics, geology, and mathematical modeling. Selected examples of the several hundred such studies conducted in recent years are described below.

Land Subsidence - Land subsidence occurs when large amounts of ground water have been withdrawn from certain types of rocks, such as fine-grained sediments. The rock compacts because the water is partly responsible for holding the ground up. When the water is withdrawn, the rocks falls in on itself. Subsidence is a global problem and, in the United States, more than 17,000 square miles in 45 States, an area roughly the size of New Hampshire and Vermont combined, have been directly affected by subsidence. More than 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the Nation has occurred because of exploitation of underground water, and the increasing development of land and water resources threatens to exacerbate existing land-subsidence problems and initiate new ones. In many areas of the arid Southwest, and in more humid areas underlain by soluble rocks such as limestone, gypsum, or salt, land subsidence is an often-overlooked environmental consequence of our land- and water-use practices.  Compaction of soils in some aquifer systems can accompany excessive ground-water pumping and it is by far the single largest cause of subsidence. Excessive pumping of such aquifer systems has resulted in permanent subsidence and related ground failures. In some systems, when large amounts of water are pumped, the subsoil compacts, thus reducing in size and number the open pore spaces in the soil the previously held water. This can result in a permanent reduction in the total storage capacity of the aquifer system.

Land subsidence due to the pumping of ground water occurs in nearly every State. It causes damage to buildings, roads, bridges, and canals; increases the incidence of coastal flooding; and can permanently reduce the capacity of aquifers to store water. Documented costs of subsidence are known to exceed $250 million per year within just Houston and Galveston, Texas, New Orleans, Louisiana, Santa Clara County, California, Santa Cruz/Monterey Counties, California, and the San Joaquin Valley, California.

Scientists have made long-term measurements of subsidence that resulted from ground-water withdrawal in a variety of environments and has developed predictive models that are used today throughout the world. For example, scientists assisted the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) in the design and alignment of canals in the Central Arizona Project and the Central Valley Project of California to ensure that these multimillion-dollar structures would not fail as a result of surface cracking and changes in land-surface configuration.

Seawater Intrusion - Many communities in coastal areas have been or potentially can be affected by seawater intrusion caused by heavy pumping of ground water. This seawater intrusion threatens major sources of freshwater relied upon by coastal communities for their water needs. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with other agencies, has been determining the geologic and human factors that control seawater intrusion.

For example, since 1953, Santa Cruz/Monterey Counties, California, are experiencing growing Monterey Bay seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers. Current investigators discovered that the potential for additional seawater intrusion into the deeper aquifer from outcrops of the aquifer in submarine canyons is greater than originally thought.

Consumptive Use of Lower Colorado River Water - Accounting for consumptive use of lower Colorado River water in the States of Arizona, California, and Nevada is required by the U.S. Supreme Court Decree of 1964, Arizona v. California. Water pumped from some wells outside the flood plain of the river has not previously been included in the accounting because the subsurface limits of the aquifer that is hydraulically connected to the river were not defined. To aid the BOR in implementing the Decree, there has been developed a method to identify wells outside the flood plain that yield water that will be replaced by water from the river. Using hydrologic principles, results of previous hydrologic and geologic studies, and newly obtained gravity data to determine the extent and thickness of the river aquifer, which comprises sediments and sedimentary rocks that are hydraulically connected to the river. The method provides a uniform criterion of identification for all users that pump water from wells completed in the river aquifer.  

Hoover Dam of the Colorado River -  When the rain stops, rivers and streams are feed by groundwater discharge and snow melt within the hydrologic water cycle. Without groundwater discharge surface water flow becomes seasonal. The man-made lake formed by Hoover Dam and Colorado River now stands at 39 percent capacity, largely because of an 11-year drought on the Colorado River.  U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), which manages the dam, is working on new equipment that would allow Hoover to operate at lower levels. The surface of Lake Mead has dropped almost 100 vertical feet since 1999. It now stands at 1,117 feet above sea level, its lowest level since 1965, when water was withheld upstream to fill Lake Powell for the first time. At 1075 feet is the point that would trigger the first-ever water shortage declaration and force reduced deliveries to Nevada and Arizona. A continued drop, to 1,025 feet, would hit supplies for California, which has rights to the largest share of the river. Elevation 895 is considered "dead pool," when the water is too low to be released through the dam without the use of pumps. Electricity from Hoover covers peak demand for numerous cities, including Riverside, Banning, and Colton, and helps Metropolitan Water District of Southern California pump supplies from Lake Havasu, through the 242-mile Colorado River Aqueduct, to Lake Mathews. Electricity available from Hoover has declined 29 percent since 1980. That has local utilities buying power on the open market, where rates are up to four times higher. The cost has been passed on to consumers. The Hoover Power Allocation Act of 1984 expires in 2017 - government water and electricity should then be sold at free-market prices.  

Because of water restraints, there is considerable doubt on the ability of Las Vegas, and the Southwest as a whole, to grow at anywhere close to the present pace.  

According to calculations, there is a 50 percent chance the Hoover Dam Lake Mead reservoir will dry up by 2021. The study assumes that by 2050 the Colorado River will experience a 10 to 30 percent drop in the amount of runoff it receives from snow that falls and melts on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains.      

Water Mining - Fossil water or paleowater is groundwater that has remained sealed in an aquifer for a long period of time. Water can rest underground in "fossil aquifers" for thousands or even millions of years.  Fossil water is a non-renewable resource. The extraction of water from such non-replenishing groundwater reserves (known as low safe-yield reserves) is known in hydrology as "water mining". If water is pumped from a well at a withdrawal rate that exceeds the natural recharge rate (which is very low or zero for a fossil aquifer), the water table drops, forming a depression in the water levels around the well. Water mining has been blamed for contributing to rising sea levels.  Aquifer draw-down or over drafting and the pumping of fossil water increases the total amount of water in the hydrosphere, and may be responsible for up to one quarter of the Earth's total sea level rise since the beginning of the 20th century.  

Water Levels in the High Plains Aquifer - The U.S. wastes more water than it uses. It takes 57 gallons of water to produce a pound of corn and 855 gallons of water to produce a pound of corn-fed beef. It takes 3,200 gallons to grow one bushel of corn for food.  It can take up to 2500 gallons of water to create 2.5 gallons of corn-ethanol to feed cars. We need some “change” and “hope” leadership if we are going to solve growing water problems.  

Because of widespread irrigation, farming accounts for 94 percent of the groundwater use. Irrigated agriculture forms the base of the regional economy. It supports nearly one-fifth of the wheat, corn, cotton, and cattle produced in the United States. Crops provide grains and hay for confined feeding of cattle and hogs and for dairies. The cattle feedlots support a large meatpacking industry. Without irrigation from the Ogallala Aquifer, there would be a much smaller regional population and far less economic activity.

The Ogallala Aquifer is being both depleted and polluted. Irrigation withdraws much groundwater, yet little of it is replaced by recharge. Since large-scale irrigation began in the 1940s, water levels have declined more than 30 meters (100 feet) in parts of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In the 1980s and 1990s, the rate of groundwater mining, or overdraft, lessened, but still averaged approximately 82 centimeters (2.7 feet) per year.    

The High Plains aquifer underlies an area of about 174,000 square miles in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. The economy of the High Plains area, which provides a major part of the food supply of the Nation, is dependent on the successful growing of crops. Withdrawal of large quantities of ground water by wells and redistribution of surface water in ditches and canals, all for irrigation purposes, have changed the natural recharge and discharge of the High Plains aquifer. About 30 percent of the ground water used for irrigation in the United States is pumped from the High Plains aquifer of the Midwest. This intense development led the USGS to undertake in 1978 the first comprehensive assessment of the ground-water resources of the High Plains aquifer. Scientists found significant declines from pre development water levels in many areas. The largest declines were in the central and the southern High Plains, where declines locally exceeded 100 feet. Declines were much smaller and less extensive in the northern High Plains, where extensive irrigation has been practiced for a shorter time. In a few parts of the northern High Plains, increases in water levels were caused by seepage from surface-water diversions.  

Because of the critical need for a unified summary of ground-water information on a nationwide scale, a ground-water atlas of the United States was compiled. The atlas summarizes Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) Program (initiated in 1978 and was completed in 1995) results and other reports of the USGS, various States and local agencies, and articles published in scientific journals. The RASA Program produced 1,105 reports. However, it takes more than reports to change a water system.

Although the information is available, critical water information seldom is acted upon by politicians. U.S. political systems are non responsive, even when the critical situation is a well known growing crisis.

China

A lingering drought has caused a severe water shortage in East China's Jiangxi province, affecting the lives of over one million people, local authorities said Wednesday. The drought has sharply reduced water levels in Poyang Lake, the country's largest freshwater lake, and rivers in Jiangxi, threatening water supplies to more than one million people residing near the lake and rivers, said an official with the province's flood control and drought relief headquarters. The water-surface area of Poyang Lake shrank to less than 200 square km this month, or 5 percent of its full size, revealing much of its underwater terrain and stranding fishing boats. Meager rainfall was the main reason for the drought. The province's rainfall in 2011 was 20 percent less than the amount that fell on average annually. Precipitation was especially scarce in the past two months, extending the drought season in the region. In addition to the lack of rainfall, excessive sand dredging was also to blame for the situation as water levels have dropped with the riverbed, making it harder to pump out groundwater, said an expert with the province's water resources department.  "1m affected by drought in E China," Updated: 2012-01-11, China Daily

There has not been change in China’s hydrological conditions for more than the last six years. Perhaps China is in a 10-20 year severe cycle of droughts.  Perhaps China’s water cycle does not change for another 50 years.   

China and water - "Drying up"

The Chinese must act fast to conserve their country's shrinking water supply

The Economist

May 19th 2005

BEIJING | from the print edition

As a deputy prime minister in 1999, Wen Jiabao warned that the very “survival of the Chinese nation” was threatened by looming water shortages. Mr Wen has since taken over as prime minister, and earned robust applause in parliament this spring when he promised “clean water for the people”. To that end, his government says it will spend an extra $240m this year. But this is a drop in the ocean. Never especially blessed with water, in recent years China has seen its supplies fall to dangerously low levels as it faces drought, rising demand and the combined effects of decades of pollution and misguided policies. Senior officials and international agencies are equally gloomy.

One in three country-dwellers in China lacks access to safe drinking water. More than 100 big cities, of which half are deemed “seriously threatened”, are short of water. Water tables are dropping by a metre or more every year across much of northern China. Even in Beijing, supply per head now stands at a perilously low 300 cubic metres (66,000 gallons) a year. Reduced flow rates on China's greatest rivers have made hydro plants reduce badly needed power output: many smelters, paper mills and petrochemical plants are no longer sure of getting the huge amounts of water they require. Droughts, historically more common in northern China, are now hitting the south too. This year Guangdong province, home to 110m people, has had a 40% drop in rainfall.

Misguided pricing policies have made matters a lot worse. Until 1985, most users were not charged at all, so it made little sense for enterprises to invest in treatment and recycling technology or for farmers to fret about wasteful irrigation. Water prices in China have risen only slowly in the past 20 years and are still among the world's lowest. Most Chinese water is bought at around 40% below cost. Even in parched Beijing, city officials are hesitating to press ahead with planned increases to the break-even point of around six yuan ($0.72) a cubic metre. Nationwide, prices are set at different levels for different sorts of users by a jumble of local and central bureaucracies, all wary of slowing economic growth.

John McAlister, head of AquaBioTronic.com, a water-recycling firm, says China is committing “ecological suicide” with its current policies and should put prices up to 20-40 yuan a cubic metre. He argues that foreigners ought to take the lead in arguing for such increases if they hope to continue to benefit from China's economic boom. Alas, he has had as much trouble convincing foreign firms of the urgency of China's water crisis as he has had convincing Chinese firms to invest in his technology.

Most probable projections over to 2050 include increasing global waring temperatures, uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.  

Lacking national crisis management leadership, recommendations, and action, it is unlikely politicians will change water laws or invest in a water future just to accommodate global warming droughts, increase populations, or prevent the end of human races.

The failure by the UN Security Council to respond to this global warming manifest challenge continues to render the body counter productive to human morality.

by David G. Eselius


On Wednesday July 20, 2011, the United Nations Security Council concluded its open debate with a Presidential Statement (Security Council SC/10332) that formally recognized the link between climate change and the maintenance of international peace and security.  Security Council SC/10332


Following a heated debate in the UN Security Council on whether the environment was a security matter meriting the attention of the 15-nation body, it became obvious that too many members are ignoring scientific reality in order to keep their national economies dependent upon coal, oil, and natural gas energies.   

Clearly short sighted Russia, Germany, Brazil, India, and the US are determined to remain dependant upon carbon economies until the end of the human race, 2050-2099.   

"Climate change 'endangers global security'"

By Simon Bradley, swissinfo.ch

Jul 24, 2011 - 18:53

Climate change poses a major threat to future global peace and security, warns Swiss conflict specialist Kurt Spillmann.

His comments followed a heated debate in the United Nations Security Council earlier this week on whether the environment was a security matter meriting the attention of the 15-nation body.

“Climate change is not an immediate motivation for conflict between states,” Spillmann, former head of the Center for Security Studies [an academic institute at ETH Zurich], told swissinfo.ch

“But it is creating stress on large parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and in the Americas, and leads to tensions between groups and regions and results in large streams of environmental refugees.”

“And that in turn creates insecurity between populations. We have little experience of these kinds of threats to security.”

In the debate on Wednesday called by Germany, this month’s council president, western speakers said ever drier conditions caused by climate change had contributed to conflicts in Sudan’s Darfur region and in Somalia, where the UN recently declared famine in two southern regions after a terrible ongoing drought.

Achim Steiner, head of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), told the council that global warming was speeding up with unforeseeable consequences.

[NOTE: UNEP is an Implementing Agency of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) with the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and is the only GEF Agency whose core business is the environment. –DGE]

"Competition over scarce water and land, exacerbated by regional changes in climate, are already a key factor in local-level conflicts in Darfur, the Central African Republic, northern Kenya, and Chad. For example, when livelihoods are threatened by declining natural resources, people either innovate, flee or can be brought into conflict," he noted.

Steiner said some parts of the world would see 3-4 degree Celsius temperature rises by 2100 while negotiators are discussing a two degree target. He also noted that sea levels could rise by one meter this century and that natural disasters could “increase exponentially.”

[NOTE: Mr. Achim Steiner, head of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), has “said some parts of the world would see 3-4 degree Celsius temperature rises by 2100,” by 2091-2100. The 3-4 degree C estimates under states the expected temperature at 2100.

Current estimates are that global warming temperature increases will exceed an unlivable +6C prior to 2099. The global warming negotiators “discussing a two degree target” note that +2C will be exceeded 2030-2040. Unfortunately, there is already so much greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere that even if we stopped all emissions today, these impacts would still be with us tomorrow and for decades to come.

It is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) who, over a decade ago, was formed by most countries with an international treaty -- the UNFCCC. UNFCCC begin to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable.  –DGE]      

“The world is confronted with a global warming scenario that is already well beyond where we believe we might be able to manage these changes and trends - if we will be able to conclude our negotiations,” he noted.

“Unnecessary”

However, not all states agree on discussing climate change within the Security Council.

Russia initially opposed the adoption of a statement on the issue saying the move was “unnecessary.” Envoy Alexander Pankin doubted whether it would bring any added value, adding that it would “merely lead to increased politicization of the issue and increased disagreements”.

Temporary council members Brazil and India also raised doubts whether climate change should be put on the council’s agenda and developing countries said it was an attempt by the large nations to muscle in on the territory of the UN General Assembly and UN agencies specializing in climate change.

But Nauru, one of several small Pacific island states endangered by rising sea levels, urged the council to appoint a UN special envoy for climate and security.

US ambassador Susan Rice hit out at “pathetic” and “short-sighted” failed attempts to reach consensus.

“The council has an essential responsibility to address the clear-cut peace and security implications of a changing climate,” she said.

“Good day”

In the end countries agreed to a revised text that spoke of only “possible security implications” of climate change. [That is, the UN Security Council voted and agreed to another meaningless global warming statement. –DGE]

However, German ambassador Peter Wittig said this was still a “good day” for climate security.

“We had quite extensive discussions. We wanted to get everyone on board and we did,” said the ambassador.

Spillmann agreed that this was an advance on the last council debate on the issue in 2007.

“UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon will have to report on these issues on a regular basis. Therefore people will become more aware of the importance of the link between security and climate change,” said the Swiss.

“We need growing awareness otherwise people will remain stuck in short-term gains and advantages and lose sight of the long-term necessities.”

Fin

● Also speaking in the Wednesday UN Security Council debate were the representatives of the United States, Brazil, China, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nigeria, United Kingdom, Russian Federation, Colombia, France, Lebanon, South Africa, Gabon, India, Portugal, Germany, Egypt (on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement), Argentina (on behalf of the Group of 77 developing countries and China), El Salvador, Slovenia, Denmark, Luxembourg, Costa Rica, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Chile, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Ecuador, Cuba, Honduras, Ireland, Japan, Singapore, Iceland, Canada, Papua New Guinea, Iran, Kuwait (on behalf of the Arab States Group), Kazakhstan, Belgium, Peru, Bangladesh, Palau, Hungary, Finland, Barbados (on behalf of the Caribbean Community), Turkey, Philippines, Kenya, Sudan, Ghana, Venezuela, Fiji, Poland, United Republic of Tanzania, Israel, Spain, Italy and Pakistan.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who opened the Council SC/10332 debate, pointed to the devastating impact of extreme weather and rising seas on lives, infrastructure and budgets — an “unholy brew” that could create dangerous security vacuums.  “We must make no mistake,” he said.  “The facts are clear:  climate change is real and accelerating in a dangerous manner,” he said, declaring that it “not only exacerbates threats to international peace and security; it is a threat to international peace and security.”  

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - A world under stress today

● Environmental damage -- such as overgrazed range land, deforested mountainsides, and denuded agricultural soils -- means that nature will be more vulnerable than previously to changes in climate. In any case, when climate shifts occurred thousands and tens of thousands of years ago, they generally took place more gradually. Natural systems had both more space and more time to adapt.

● Human population damage – Earth's vast human population, much of it poor, is vulnerable to climate stress. Millions live in dangerous places -- on floodplains or in shantytowns on exposed hillsides around the enormous cities of the developing world. Often there is nowhere else for them to go. In the distant past, man and his ancestors migrated in response to changes in habitat. There will be much less room for migration this time around.

● Global warming almost certainly will be unfair. The industrialized countries of North America and Western Europe, along with a few other states, such as Japan, are responsible for the vast bulk of past and current greenhouse-gas emissions. These emissions are a debt unwittingly incurred for the high standards of living (aka GDP per capita) enjoyed by a minority of the world's population. Yet those to suffer most from climate change will be in the developing world (with large populations and low GDP per capita). They have fewer resources for coping with storms, with floods, with droughts, with disease outbreaks, and with disruptions to food and water supplies. They are eager for economic development themselves, but may find that this already difficult process has become more difficult because of climate change. The poorer nations of the world have done almost nothing to cause global warming yet are most exposed to its effects.

Politics of national carbon economies

The U.S. left Democrat anti nuclear Socialists have a long history since the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was formed (January 19, 1975) of increasing nuclear facility delays by excessive NRC nuclear regulation, litigation, and increasing the cost of nuclear power. President Obama is also known for his opposition and de-funding to the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Repository and lack of national energy policies.

Since the 1970s, politicians and protest groups placed the body of global warming human-race into the coffin. It was 1990s-2011 self serving evil politicians and indecorous immoral news media supplied the coffin nails and dug the hole into the ground to bury the human race.  In a political suicide pact, current politicians are shoveling carbon dirt to cover coffin of the human race.

A new peer-reviewed report released week of July 11, 2011, by the Economics and Equity for the Environment (E3) network found that each ton of carbon dioxide emitted in the atmosphere results in as much as $893 in economic damages, far greater than the government's current "social cost of carbon" estimate of $21 per ton.

To develop a reduction of greenhouse gas for a major industrialized economy it takes about 15 years of rapid nuclear energy development. Mainland China has 14 nuclear power reactors in operation, more than 25 under construction, and more about to start construction soon. Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give more than a ten-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030, and 400 GWe by 2050. China is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle.  

The Westinghouse AP1000 is the main basis of China's move to Generation III technology, and involves a major technology transfer agreement with the U.S.

France is an exporter of nuclear energy. No other country has started a shift to a clean energy economy.  

Most of mainland China's electricity is produced from fossil fuels (80% from coal, 2% from oil, 1% from gas in 2006) and hydro power (15%). Two large hydro projects are recent additions: Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 GWe. Rapid growth in demand has given rise to power shortages, and the reliance on fossil fuels has led to much air pollution. The economic loss due to air pollution is put by the World Bank at almost 6% of GDP.  

Global electricity demand is increasing twice as fast as overall energy use and is likely to rise 76% to 2030. Nuclear power is the most environmentally benign way of producing electricity on a large scale.  See World Nuclear Association (WNA) “World Energy Needs and Nuclear Power”  

Not conveyed to the public by the TV and print media is the critical nature of global warming temperature increase.  With U.S. and Germany dismantling the future of their nuclear energy facilities there is no hope of reducing global warming greenhouse gas emissions that increase global warming.

Natural methane in the atmosphere is to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Major economies will increase their use of coal, oil, and natural gas. As population and gross domestic product (GDP) increases, energy consumption increases. The carbon-cycle carbon-uptake storage for oceans and land is being significantly reduced.  Because politicians remain self serving evil incarnations, many world leaders remain defiant of scientific warnings and explanations of global warming.

Projected global warming affects

Major global warming affects on climate change are largely "irreversible" for more than one thousand years. Current global warming temperature increase above preindustrial is +0.8 °C.

No temperature increase above preindustrial temperature is “safe” for the human race. Global warming schedule of events are:

+2.4°C: Coral reefs almost extinct (~Year 2035)

In North America, a new dust bowl brings deserts to life in the high plains states, centered on Nebraska. In addition, wipes out agriculture and cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north.  California water reserves experience major limitations. As populations increase and temperature increase, the demands for water increase. Thus, currently over drafted aquifers are depleted.  Other aquifers become increasingly groundwater overdraft.

Large ocean fish biomass is reduced to zero because of over fishing, global warming, and reductions in phytoplankton feed stock. Arctic methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) releases has increased markedly. Ocean acidification is increasing.

Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas.  In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages.  Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics.  Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction.

Carbon dioxide and methane have unique long-term effects on climate change that are largely "irreversible" for one thousand years after emissions stop. The greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide do not persist over 100 years in the same way as carbon dioxide. Even if carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions were to cease completely now, atmospheric temperatures will not decrease significantly.

Stabilizing the greenhouse gas induced component of global warming is an energy balance problem. At +2.4°C, Earth’s temperature continues to clime because atmospheric greenhouse gas levels exceed Earth’s temperature regulation point. That is, atmospheric greenhouse gas levels will still trap heat, thus increasing the temperature until the heat lost to space (space radiation) balances the heat generated by the body of Earth and atmosphere.

+3.4°C: Rain forest turns to desert (~Year 2050)

World population exceeds 9 billion

The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke.  Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming.  The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Arctic methane releases has increased markedly. Polar bears, walruses and ringed seals all go extinct.  Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away.  Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa

+4.4°C: Melting ice caps displace millions

Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic put Siberian permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane and carbon dioxide.  Global temperatures keep on rising rapidly in consequence.  Melting ice caps and sea level rises displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai.  Arctic methane releases has increased markedly. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece.  More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs.  Agriculture collapses in Australia

+5.4°C: Sea levels rise by five meters (~Year 2075)

The West Antarctic ice sheet breaks up, eventually adding another five meters to global sea levels.  If +5.4°C temperatures are sustained, the entire planet will become ice-free, and the sea levels will become 70 meters (230 feet) higher than today.  South Asian society collapses due to the disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas.  The Indus River dries up.  In East India and Bangladesh, the monsoon floods threaten millions. Arctic methane releases has increased markedly. Most of humanity begins to seek refuge away from higher temperatures closer to the poles.  Tens of millions of refugees force their way into the Siberia, Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia, and the British Isles.  World food supplies run out

+6.0°C (~Year 2050-2099)

Human (anthropogenic) and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization trip points.  Resulting impacts were abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, gross domestic product (GDP) and human population impacts upon the environment.

+6.4°C: Most of human life terminated (prior to 2099)

The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits in runaway climate change could be a cause of past, future, and present climate changes. Warming seas lead to the release of methane clathrates trapped in sub-oceanic sediments: methane fireballs tear across the sky, causing further warming.  The oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer.  Deserts extend almost to the Arctic.  "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which strip the land of soil.  Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges.  Most of life on Earth snuffed out, as temperatures rise higher than for hundreds of millions of years.

The with the support of self serving politicians, 1970s to 2011 anti nuclear groups’ activities markedly increased human (anthropomorphic) and natural greenhouse gases that results in global warming temperature increase. Had there not been a strong politically support of the multinational anti nuclear movement the world would now be a much better place in which to securely live.