Climate Change 2013-2050

A single extreme-weather event cannot be linked to global warming climate change because climate change is the condition of climate changing over decades. Weather is a daily, weekly, or seasonal event. Obviously when Earth's average temperature increases (or decreases) climate conditions change over time. As global temperature increases there is more atmospheric energy and more moisture within atmosphere. Accepted is global warming climate change produces in some locations severe weather conditions more frequently.

Prior to end of 21st Century global warming temperatures will have increased global warming temperature exceeding 6.4 degrees Celsius, created by global warming gases. Because lack of response to continuing increased greenhouse gases results in human race termination by 2050-2055. Earth's average carbon dioxide and methane level at 2050 determines climate Earth's conditions for following decades. It is global warming climate change conditions from 2013 to 2050 that is most important as it directly relates to human survival.      

With non responsive President Obama and U.S. Congress, global warming climate change proceeds as follows. Earth's  2017 'carbon infrastructure' greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions exceeds 'Earth carbon cycle' ability to process carbon dioxide, producing increased global warming of 3.4 degrees Celsius around 2040. Stored Arctic Region methane hydrate becomes increasingly dissociated releasing global warming gas methane. Human race ends 2050-2055.

Only acceptable response to global warming is to get rid of non responsive self serving politicians.   

No Politician Will Talk About It - Global Warming Water

Water scarcity is even deemed the most immediate environmental risk to the world.

Financial Times sustainability conference in New York City issued dire warnings and a call to arms for investors and corporations around the world along with governments.

"Water scarcity is the new global warming"

Commentary: Management is key to prosperity and survival

By Thomas Kostigen

March 30, 2012

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The global director of water stewardship for Coca-Cola Co. says that water risk isn’t imminent; it’s already manifest.

Greg Koch, who spoke at the Financial Times sustainability conference in New York City on Thursday, issued dire warnings and a call to arms for investors and corporations around the world along with governments.

And he wasn’t alone.

Robert Hormats, Under Secretary of State for Economics, Energy and the Environment says disputes or outright water wars are imminent in the near future.

Here’s why: an increasing population with needs for more energy and food is putting undue demand on the world’s water supply. So much so that by 2025 some two-thirds of the world’s population will experience some type of water shortage, according to myriad estimates.

Water scarcity is even deemed the most immediate environmental risk to the world, according to Usha Rao-Monari, the global head of water, global infrastructure and natural resources for the International Finance Corporation.

There are two sorts of water risks, she says: physical risk, which is not having enough water at the source, and economic risk, which is the cost of moving water around.

Both are extreme and being experienced throughout the world right now.

In terms of solutions, Rao-Monari sees three: financial, innovation, and government policy. Each of these can play a critical role in water quality and delivery.

Not long ago, climate change and carbon emissions were the environmental demons knocking at our doors. 'The Carbon Disclosure Project' (CDP) sprung up out of this threat to measure, disclosure and share information among companies. Now it’s water.

The CDP also has a growing water initiative where companies report their water policies. The CDP Water Disclosure Global Report 2011 finds that 57% of the 190 publicly listed organizations that participated in the survey report board-level oversight of water policies, strategies, or plans. By comparison, a report released by CDP in September 2011 showed that 94% of Global 500 companies report board-level oversight of climate change, suggesting that corporate understanding of water as a business concern trails that of climate change.

To enhance investor analysis of corporate water risk and to support corporate action on water stewardship, CERES, the Boston-based coalition of environmental organizations and corporations, developed a go-to water gauge. Backed by investors managing over $2 trillion in assets, the “Aqua Gauge” provides a benchmark for best practice and enables investors to assess, scorecard and compare companies on their management of water risk.

Brooke Barton, the senior manager for water and corporate programs at CERES, says “investors need to get water on their governance agenda.” This includes not only, say, how water scarcity would affect a beverage maker or food producer, but also municipalities via their bond offerings. If water rates change due to shrinking supply, rates would likely rise and bond prices, in turn, lower.

I have long been vocal about the need for water conservation, efficiency, and management. In the developing world this is especially needed. Geography plays a huge role in water accessibility.

One of the biggest opportunities for social as well as environmental impact is through water investing.

Bennett Freeman, senior vice president for sustainability research and policy for Calvert Investments, notes that China holds 21% of the world’s population but only 7% of global water supply. Its water needs are massive. Therefore, water investment opportunities are massive.

Water is life

The entire developing world, as it develops, will need more water. The oil, gas, and timber industries in Africa, for example, take supply away from the direct consumption needs of freshwater supply. Management will be key to growth and prosperity.

And while the U.S. experiences water shortages throughout a majority of states, there is relative access to fresh water. It’s this skill of management and technology that could be a major U.S. export. Yet, we squander much of our skills and management.

Hormats says this is wrong. The U.S. State Department is seeking to export these skills in conjunction with the private sector, he says. “There is an important opportunity for the State Department to work with private companies and help other countries purify and manage [their water],” Hormats says.

Rao-Monari says that one of the first things that should be done is to put a price on water. She is right. There needs to be an established understanding from which we can manage water. It can exact incentives and penalties — a tool for better management.

Water is both a risk and an opportunity. Tech entrepreneurs and innovators take note. Billions of dollars worth of municipal and private projects are coming down the pike (Barton at CERES mentions projects in Nevada, Utah, and Colorado). And that’s just here in America.

[NOTE: Water remains a legislated political topic. There are many prices for water that vary by water districts. What is very poorly managed by politicians are groundwater and aquifer drafting and recharge. No matter how many water projects there are, politicians and their special interests always take their cut of the action. As it now stands, too many politicians accept the 2050-2055 CE destruction of human races as cost of doing their business as usual.  --DGE]  

Without water there is no energy. Without water there is no food. Without water, in other words, there is no life. Seems like that should be enough of a risk to warrant more attention.

As Koch pointed out, this isn’t a risk happening in the future. We’re dealing with these risks now.

Many people from around the world who came to the FT Sustainable conference agreed.

Water isn’t everywhere and there isn’t always a drop to drink. We need to invest in programs that find ways to get more.

Thomas Kostigen is the author of “The Green Blue Book: The Simple Water-Savings Guide to Everything in Your Life.”

Fin

The hydrologic water cycle describes the cycles water. The current and projected potable water shortage is caused by several factors:

#   The only way to "create" large amounts of potable water is by desalination, which consumes huge amounts of energy (that must be clean nuclear energy).

#   Increased populations require more potable water to support their lives.

#   Increased gross domestic products (GDPs or increased wealth) increase water requirements.

#   Increased atmospheric global warming temperature results in increased amount of moisture suspended within the atmosphere. there is less surface water available and ground aquifers are overdrafted. With global warming there is a net surface riparian and aquifer water loss, evaporation increase, water mining increases, net ice water loss, net ocean level rise, major weather changes, and additional factors that alter the hydrologic cycle.  

#   Most large scale water investments expect to function past 2050-2055 CE. However, if global warming political responses continues the way they have since 1750 CE, it is unlikely human races exist past 2055 CE.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most likely projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, evil politicians, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. No one has proposed changes to global warming business as usual politics. There are no formed plans to alter the course of global warming temperature increase.   

The entire developing world, as it develops, will need more water. China holds 21% of the world’s population but only 7% of global water supply. Its water needs are massive. Therefore, water investment opportunities are massive.

Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020 CE, in 2030-2040 CE Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature. Postulated is wipe out of agriculture and cattle ranching occurs as sand dunes and dust bowls appear across five U.S. states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north. By +3 oC major to massive dust storms sweep the U.S. Midwest. Saltwater inundation of coastal groundwater stores will expand. Groundwater/aquifer pollution such as saltwater encroachment associated with over drafting of aquifers or natural leaching from natural occurring deposits are natural sources of pollution. U.S. Ogallala Aquifer (aka, High Plains Aquifer) is dry.

At +4 oC above 1750 CE preindustrial temperature, the Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke. Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming. The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away. U.S. Ogallala Aquifer (aka, High Plains Aquifer) is dry. Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa. Around +4 oC, rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic Region (like Siberia) sea and land permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) producing a temperature rise. Melting ice caps and sea level rises have displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece. More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia. Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes result in the Amazon drying up. With temperature increase, more moisture is present in the air, more surface water evaporation, and more aquifer over drafting occurs. There is a resulting large transfer of potable aquifer water (and surface water) to oceans and atmosphere.  


Catastrophic global warming events are suffering from coordinated benign neglect and political/media misdirection. The main media continues to be active in deceiving humanity as to the peril and catastrophic events of global warming leading up to sure 2050-2099 CE demise of human races, most likely 2050-2055 CE.   

Before investing in environmental projects understand some of the basic physics involved with your investment.  You can always change your investment portfolio, but you cannot change the laws of physics, GDPs, aquifer over drafting, riparian hypoxia, ice melt, rates of global temperature increase, nor population growth.   

U.S. Nuclear Energy

Global warming temperature increase is a response to atmospheric accumulations of human and natural carbon dioxide and methane emission since the 1750 CE start of the industrial revolution.   

President Obama is now somewhat aware of the seriousness of the global warming temperature increase issues. However, the Republican candidates and U.S. Congress appear not to understand the significance of global warming temperature increase.  

All those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.    

Global Warming Temperature Increase

The current greenhouse gas increase above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Existing carbon dioxide level is ~392 ppm. When carbon dioxide exceeds ~450 ppm, Earth’s physical carbon budget is exceeded and Earth’s carbon sinks become carbon sources resulting in Earth’s temperature increase accelerating rapidly. Within 2050-2099 CE the temperature increase is so great that Earth’s life support systems no longer function, resulting in the death of 9 billion people. Global warming is caused by human increasing use of global warming hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and increasing releases of Arctic Region global warming methane gas (from methane hydrate vast stores). The ONLY solution available to stop global warming temperature increase is the replacement of hydrocarbon energy used to generate electrical energy with deployment of a rapid and vast build up of nuclear energy. Will this expansion of nuclear energy be enough to save human races from their 2050-2099 CE death? That question is yet to be acknowledged.  

At 2017 CE the in-place global hydrocarbon energy infrastructure shall exceed Earth’s carbon budget; the point of no return is reached, human races are extinguished 2050-2099 CE.

NRC 30-Year Political Nuclear Logjam

Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands.  For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. President Obama and the left Democrat political machinery have now completed the more than 30-year U.S. political phase out of nuclear energy. Congressional political machinery is still fighting new U.S. nuclear construction.  

09 February 2012, President Obama’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have issued the Combined Licenses (COL) to Southern Nuclear Operating Company’s application at the Vogtle site in Georgia. NRC staff is expected to issue the Vogtle site COLs within 10 business days. NRC members COLs should also have block authorized for the construction and conditional operation of many new Westinghouse AP-1000 nuclear power plants in the U.S.

The Combined Construction and Operating License (Regulatory Guide 1.206, COL) replaced the previous Draft Regulatory Guide 1145 as the licensing process for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. The COL is a part of a new "streamlined" or “fast track” process that is hoped to prevent delays in operation that contributed to the mothballing of many plants since the 1980s.

Previously (under Draft Regulatory Guide 1145), the licensing process had two steps, construction and operation, each of which required a different license to be issued. Oppositions raised before a plant started operation versus before it started construction could thus be extremely financially damaging to a utility.

Under new Regulatory Guide 1.206, a COL alone is still not enough to construct a nuclear plant, an Early Site Permit (ESP) application must also be filed. The ESP addresses the site that plant will be built on. ESP is unique to each site. The COL addresses the reactor design and construction. It is my understanding that since the AP-1000 is a “standard design,” the NRC COL approval for Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 applies to all AP-1000 reactor design and construction that are backlogged at the NRC.

COL and the ESP could happen simultaneously for Bellefonte Nuclear Station Units 3 and 4 (Hollywood, Alabama), Levy County Units 1 and 2 (Levy County, Florida), Shearon Harris Units 2 and 3 (Wake County, North Carolina), Vogtle Units 3 and 4 (Burke County, Georgia), and William States Lee III Units 1 and 2 (Cherokee County, South Carolina). Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3 (Fairfield County, South Carolina) mandatory hearing requirements appear complete.    

A Clouded Future

Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.  

Resulting from the 1970s politics, nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from an estimated $660 million to $8.87 billion. This was typical of the time due to increased NRC member regulations after the 1979 CE Three Mile Island accident. In the 1970s, NRC members political nuclear regulations were to make nuclear energy costs very high and force nuclear utility rates to be unaffordable; therefore new nuclear energy was no longer a viable contender as a energy suppler. Since 1979 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have been building a nuclear energy political energy monopoly by denying nuclear construction with NRC members’ unwarranted and costly “safety” demands.  For more than 30-years, coal, oil, and natural gas greenhouse gas emissions was never reduced with nuclear power replacing hydrocarbon energy. Left Democrat political machinery continue more than 30-year U.S. political of opposition to nuclear energy.

Neither President Obama nor the Republican candidates or the U.S. Congress have established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. A response plan for global warming would take about ten-years to develop. Earth does not have ten-years, it only has five years till 2017 CE to stop building carbon energy infrastructure. Human carbon emissions war to peak 2015-2010 CE and than decrease to zero over time.   

Global hydrocarbon infrastructure lock-in is around 2017 CE, and it takes about 3-4 years to build a large nuclear facility. How is the U.S. going to produce enough clean nuclear energy soon enough to cap and reduce carbon emissions so that human races are saved from total destruction 2050-2099 CE?  

The start of any Republican or Democrat global warming recovery plan is to expand U.S. nuclear energy. To properly expand U.S. nuclear energy it is necessary to replace the politics of the NRC members with an experienced panel of three military nuclear officers and one presidential appointee. To meet Earth’s 2017 CE carbon budget criteria, military nuclear design, construction, and operation experiences within the NRC is required to quickly expand U.S. and global nuclear capacity. Not doing so results in the destruction of 9 billion people.  

Global Warming - Northern Alberta oil sand carbon budget lock-in

Rev 23 Jan 2012

Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, economies, or jobs. Carbon budget is a physical geophysical event. Exceeding the carbon budget means Earth’s systems of temperature regulation are in thermal runaway; Earth shall exceed habitable temperatures 2050-2099 Christan Era (CE).

Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Carbon infrastructures last more than 50 years resulting in nation’s hydrocarbon economies locking-in the global carbon budget. An important part of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in is Canada’s proposed oil-sand extraction methods for the proposed north-south Keystone XL pipeline. Oil-sand extraction greenhouse gases emitted add significantly to the global warming carbon budget.       

A large time lag to rebuild a clean energy infrastructure results in a delayed Earth temperature responses to emitted now greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date human hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) with natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Natural Arctic Region methane emissions effects the temperature increase and is a greenhouse gas variable that needs close consideration.

Global warming locking-in of the global carbon budget point of no-return comes around 2017 CE.  

Canadian crude oil extraction methods adds to the global carbon budget. Crude oil extrication from bitumen results in a measurable factor of global warming temperature increase over the near term and far term.   

Keystone XL Pipeline

Canada has over 170 billion barrels of oil recoverable with today's technology, making it second only to Saudi Arabia as an oil resource country.

The U.S. $13 billion Keystone pipeline system was/is to play an important role in linking a secure and growing supply of Canadian crude oil with the largest refining markets in the United States, significantly improving North American security energy supply. Proposed ‘Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion Project’ would begin at Alberta Canada and extend southeast through Saskatchewan, Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. Keystone Pipeline (Phase II) is through Nebraska and Kansas to serve markets at Cushing, Oklahoma before continuing through Oklahoma to a delivery point near existing terminals in Nederland, Texas to serve the Port Arthur, Texas marketplace.  

Keystone XL is one of TWO PROJECTS that oil sands producers have been counting on to boost returns. Canada now exports about 2 million barrels of oil a day, almost all to the United States. Government and industry officials say a major delay in PROJECT #1 north to south Keystone XL decision would prompt increased efforts to push forward PROJECT #2 east to west Enbridge Inc's C$ 5.5 billion (US$ 5.5 billion) Northern Gateway pipeline across British Columbia to the West Coast, where more than half a million barrels of crude a day could be loaded onto tankers and shipped to Asia.   

If Alberta's oil sands, the world’s third largest oil reserve were combined with U.S. oil reserves they would be more than adequate for American oil independence from outside North America oil importation.

Oil Sand Bitumen Emissions

Synthetic crude is an intermediate product produced when an extra-heavy or unconventional oil source is upgraded into a transportable form. Synthetic crude is then shipped to oil refineries where it is further upgraded into finished products. Alberta crude oil production is expected to grow strongly, but could be limited by the “global greenhouse gas emissions budget.” Oil sand extraction uses hydrocarbon heat (oil/natural gas) extraction, which emits much greenhouse gases. Global warming gases are vented when synthetic oil is extracted from bitumen and also from standing open pit mining.

⇛ bitumen - A black viscous mixture of hydrocarbons obtained naturally or as a residue from petroleum distillation

⇛ oil sands - Sand, clay or other minerals saturated with bitumen

⇛ synthetic crude oil - Similar to natural crude oil, created by upgrading bitumen from oil sands.

⇛ greenhouse gas - Any of the atmospheric gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect by absorbing infrared radiation produced by solar warming of the Earth's surface. They include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (NO2), and water vapor. Although greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, the elevated levels especially of carbon dioxide and methane that have been observed in recent decades are directly related, at least in part, to human activities such as the burning of hydrocarbon (fossil) fuels and the deforestation of tropical forests.

Some synthetic oil adverse greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by using nuclear energy to heat bitumen and incorporation of a capture process for vented bitumen greenhouse gases.  

Oil sands synthetic oil extraction incorporates both mining ("conventional" methods) and in-situ (“non-conventional”) production methods. Mining excavation of the bitumen-rich sand uses open pit mining methods which is the most efficient method of extraction (ie, least costly) when there are large deposits of bitumen with little overburden. In-situ methods involve processing the oil sand deposit so that the bitumen is removed while the sand remains in place. Oil heat extraction from bitumen can be used for both mining and in-situ. In-situ methods are used for oil sands that are too deep to support surface mining operations to an economical degree. 80% of the resource in Northern Alberta oil sands lies deep below surface overburden.  

Open pit strip mining remains is least costly main extraction method, but two in situ techniques are likely to be used more in the future: cyclic steam stimulation and steam-assisted gravity drainage. Injected steam into the formation heats bitumen, allowing it to flow and be pumped to the surface or extracted from Canadian Athabasca Oil Sands. Oil sand processing can produce significant (massive) amounts of global warming gases.   

Nuclear power could make steam and electricity for extracting sand oil. A proposal suggests that a single Candu 6 reactor configured to produce 75% steam and 25% electricity would replace 6 million cubic metres (220  terajoule (TJ)) per day of natural gas and support production of 175-200,000 barrels per day of oil. Nuclear heating would save the emission of 3.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. (European Union CO2 emissions in 2008 was 4.2 million metric tonnes, U.S. emission 7.1 million metric tonnes.) Canadian oil output from tar sands is forecast to reach three million barrels per day.

Given the limitations of supplying steam over more than 25 km (15.5 miles), small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) with capacities of some around 100 MWe could be more suitable for individual oil extraction and heating projects. U.S. experience of small light water reactors (LWRs) has been of very small military power plants, such as the reactor which operated at McMurdo Sound in Antarctica 1962-72, generating a total of 78 million kWh. There was also an Army program for small reactor development, and some successful small reactors from the main national program commenced in the 1950s. One was the Big Rock Point operated for 35 years to 1997. Anti nuclear politics has for decades increased costs of nuclear power and has opposed U.S. nuclear energy development and small light water reactor development.    

Problem with any proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the bitumen steam extraction process is that the process increases the oil cost per barrel. Decades of selling “alternative renewable energy” was left Democrats’ stated U.S. national energy policy. U.S. left Democrats, President Obama, anti-nuclear groups, and “environmentalist” opposed both completing the Keystone XL pipeline and also opposed developing clean nuclear energy as part of U.S. energy planning. It will take at least two years of planning, R&D, and development to devise an effective alternative to decades of alternative-energy promotion; that leaves only three years of clean infrastructure implementation to correct for global 2017 CE carbon-budget lock-in. An increasing relevant problem is that all government department data and reporting on global warming is suspect of containing significant errors and omissions. Internet hacking is an increasing problem to public and private information integrity. Until information errors and omissions are corrected, there can be no reliable global warming energy planning. Due to decades of delays and abuses, correcting global warming temperature increase is going to be very expensive.    

With left Democrat neo communists locked into conflicting unreasonable energy policies and are anti science oreniated, there will be no timely U.S. political responses to U.S. need for energy self sufficiency or to curbing global warming temperature increase. U.S. energy prices and global warming greenhouse gas emissions are to continue to increase. There is to be a 2017 CE lock-in of the global carbon budget with continued global temperature increase past 2050-2099 CE.