The Global Warming Future

The future of global warming is grim. Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable response projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, increased rates of energy use, critical political decisions not made, increases in national high-energy GDPs, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, limited hydrologic energy development, water resources under developed, and too often proposed by untoward politicians and surrogates are impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics.

By 1866, resulting from the accumulations of a combination of natural and human greenhouse gases, global temperature increase produced a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends too soon past 2050 CE. All theories about the Modern Global Warming Era that are to the contrary to this presentation, and are not based upon acceptable supporting evidence, are falsehoods.

Note that transitions between fundamentally different regional and global climates can occur within only decades. Politicians most significantly increased global warming gases from the 1980s forward, when powerful world leaders assured that use of nuclear energy would be reduced and coal, oil, and natural gas energy economies would increase. Later, President Obama and left progressive Democrats' nuclear energy policy is to completely discontinue nuclear energy in favor of coal energy (with some natural gas increase). Left Democrats are active in retaining the U.S. economy dependent upon coal energy, imported OPEC oil energy, Chinese economic loans, and printing U.S. money. Within U.S. and Germany, nuclear energy was politically phased out while the 1992 CE alternatives to energy diversions were developed to enable politicians and their special interests to appear responsive to "climate change." Politicians talk the talk of climate change, but their political walk is to retain huge trillion dollar investments within multinational global warming hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas).

Global warming is on a political "business as usual" human hydrocarbon energy path and natural methane emissions path. For politicians global warming is a political game that is no more than a finding a way to keep their well paid jobs and win next elections. For human races, global warming is a life and death cause and effect response of the laws of physics.

Although politicians may have their way, Mother Nature has the last say. Politicians control national energies and human greenhouse gas emissions, but it is the laws of Mother Nature's physics that control global warming temperature increase. Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people post 2050 CE.

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE introduction of the Industrial Age, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE pre-industrial interglacial tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels was 280 ppm and methane peak level was 700 ppb. Current carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and are for methane ~1,850 ppb.

It took 260 years of Industrial Age greenhouse gas accumulations to get where we are. The global warming course is set; changes will be difficult, costly, and need to be timely; the longer the mitigation implementations are delayed the more difficult it becomes to change; the rate-of-change of global warming temperature increase is accelerating.

For more than 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear. By the 1970s U.S. hydroelectric energy development was phased out, promoting continued use of coal energy. Construction within public water right-of-ways prevented expansion of hydroelectric power. In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP), a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE, and economic employment patterns. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm limit and +2 C Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people. The U.S. produces 20 tons carbon per person. Therefore, the U.S. is either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races survival past 2050 CE .

The Arctic Sea is warming faster resulting from warmer freshwater flow, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice. Due to the Arctic Region positive warming feedback and methane hydrate-clathrate release, powerful global warming methane is becoming a more significant global warming force.   

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and a binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems, multinational political machines, and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance. Current "official" reporting reporting of global warming temperature increase leads to the destruction of the human races.   

A NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians economically locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also creating hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Curbing global warming involves preventing 2017 CE “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” In 2030-2040 CE, unless there are changes, the 450 ppm carbon limit and +2 C Limit is exceeded.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to help curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).   

Keep in mind that to prevent excessive global warming temperature increase involves global economies shifting from hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas) to nuclear energy or the more limited hydroelectric energy, which involves trillions of dollars in economic exchanges. For that reason, implementing trillions of dollars of proper responses to global warming are politically unpopular, which introduces decades more delay to political responses. After delayed global warming responses are installed, Earth may respond decades later. Meanwhile, Mother Nature's environment and laws of physics responds with total disregard of politicians' reelection worries. Mother Nature's global warming mostly responds to global warming gas levels, and time.

Acts against humanity's survival are authorities ignoring or dismissing necessary timely implementation of corrections to global warming temperature-increase. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall soon die post 2050 CE, ending the 160 thousand year 'journey of mankind.'  

We live in a dynamic and changing world. Sometimes truth is more exciting and stranger than fiction. No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to direct global warming changes. While politicians oppose information dissemination about global warming, very few scientist have access to valid global warming modeling with projections; there is no public access to valid global warming modeling. No nation has projected the cause and effects of global warming. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many more centuries of global warming temperature increase. As it now stands, global warming temperature increase is a no win political "business as usual" scenario for human races.  

There may be solutions to the global warming temperature increase, we just have to identify and timely implement those solutions.  

"We travel together, passengers on a little spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" -Adlai Stevenson (D), U.N. Ambassador, 1965      

Methane is Primary Greenhouse-gas and Carbon Dioxide Is Secondary Forcing Agent

By David G. Eselius

The sun’s orbit establishes Earth’s historic heating and less heating cycles while Methane (CH4) gas is the primary global warming gas forcing agent and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a secondary gas forcing agent.

Resulting from inadequate incorporation of the historic and current importance of Methane global warming gas, sun’s orbit, energy use, and Earth’s population growth—the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to revise global warming projections in preparation for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 17/MOP 7 meeting in Durban, South Africa‎, 28 November - 9 December 2011.

The Role of Interglacial Cycles

Earth’s 100,000 year interglacial natural temperature cycle (before there were more than 6.7 billion people on earth) was first determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun.  That is, the sun’s orbit, as identified in the equations of the Milankovitch Cycle identifies the sun’s position for Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling with an average temperature range excursion of about 1C-1.5°C. Reference: “Milankovitch Cycle Tutorial”

The sun’s orbit and resulting historic greenhouse-gas emissions are still in play. However, since the 1750 start of the Industrial Age and the adding the greenhouse-gases of more than 6.7 billion people, Earth’s Temperature Cycle has received an additional huge amount of global warming Methane and some Carbon Dioxide.  Resulting are Earth’s increased global warming temperatures above historic temperatures.  

Carbon cycle Methane gas was/is released by oceans during an interglacial warming period.  Carbon cycle Methane is returned to oceans during the cooling period, all within a historic temperature excursion of about 1-1.5°C.  Earth’s average temperature is now about 0.8 °C above interglacial high temperature warming 1-1.5°C zone.

Earth’s oceans and humans have produced 0.8 °C more global-warming-Methane-gas than during the normal warming of Earth Temperature Cycle.  Increased human CH4/CO2 resulted from the post 1750 warming cycle that is above the more than 60 million year Earth Temperature Cycle.  Now CH4 feedback seems to have a life of its own, and it is growing very rapidly and is dominating Earth’s Temperature Cycle.

To restore Earth’s temperature to the “normal” temperature range, greenhouse-gases Methane and Carbon Dioxide must be returned to interglacial greenhouse-gas range.  Not to return to Earth’s “normal average” warming and cooling zone means Earth’s biological life and a population of more than 9 billion people in 2050 are to exist while temperatures are increasing well above anything experienced for more than 60 million years.  At best, under expected extreme temperature conditions, the long-term quality of life for more than 9 billion people will be externally poor and temperature is expected to continue to rise past 2050.  

In 2050-2099, how far above “normal temperature” is unknown as well as the resulting affects upon biological life is also unknown, but has been postulated. Reference: EU’s "The 2°C target"  

Although much is unknown of the human races’ future fate, most likely, human races are terminated 2050-2099 due to global warming temperature increase.   

Methane greenhouse-gas has a newly calculated global warming potential (GWP) about 72 times greater than Carbon Dioxide.  The Methane-clathrate energy stored within oceans is more than twice of all Earth’s stores of coal, oil, and natural gas. Methane is a much greater global warming force than Carbon Dioxide. To understand current global warming, understand first the current and historic interactions that Methane has with temperature regulation.   

There are very important scientific and political misunderstandings concerning the part that Methane plays in global warming.  It time to start correcting those misunderstandings.

NOTE: Interesting to know is by how much Methane/Carbon Dioxide leads/lags Earth’s orbit perturbations around the sun (re: Milankovitch Cycle).  Analyzing Earth’s orbit (a orbital mechanics problem), temperature proxies, Methane/Carbon Dioxide supply sources, and global warming atmospheric densities will help resolve questions about cycles of interglacial and current temperature forcing.

Methane (CH4) vs. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations and global warming heating potentials determine the 1-1.5°C excursions zone.  As part of the carbon cycle, within the colder glacial periods there is ocean carbon sinking (absorbing) of the atmospheric Methane. During warmer interglacial period there is more oceans carbon sourcing (venting) of Methane.  If there were not now a large numbers of humans, the 100,000 year warm-cold-warm 1-1.5°C zone would be determined by Earth’s orbit around the sun.  Now, it is human greenhouse-gases that have “tipped” global temperature regulation to new higher levels.

Analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-cores provides an accurate recording of relative temperature changes and CH4/CO2 atmospheric concentrations.

"Antarctic Ice Bubbles Show CO2, Methane, at 800,000-Year Highs"

By Alex Morales - MAY 14, 2008

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctica's ice have revealed that levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the Earth's atmosphere are at their highest in 800,000 years, two studies in the journal Nature said.

Analysis of a 3.3-kilometer (2.1-mile) ice core extended the existing record of atmospheric greenhouse-gases by 150,000 years and showed that concentrations of CO2 and methane fluctuated within bands well below today's levels.

“That range highlights the fact that man, through burning fossil fuels and land-use change, has changed the concentration of greenhouse-gases in the atmosphere in a substantial way.”

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last year (2007) blamed global warming on emissions of such gases and warned of increased flooding and drought as temperatures continue to rise. The team found that greenhouse-gas concentrations tracked temperature changes throughout the 800,000 years.

The amount of CO2 and methane now in the atmosphere are 28 percent and 124 percent, respectively, above their highest levels before industrialization.

The scientists uncovered the lowest measured concentration of carbon dioxide -- a value of 172 parts per million -- 667,000 years ago. The minimum value in the 650,000-year time series documented prior to today's [May 4, 2008] papers was about 180 ppm.

[NOTE: Ice-core concentration of CO2 and CH4 is determined by a direct chemical analysis of the bubbles. Temperature proxies are reconstructed from deuterium (D) readings that are within the same bubbles containing CO2 and CH4.

Deuterium is a stable, naturally occurring hydrogen isotope. Deuterium kinetic isotope effect is temperature sensitive and is used as a proxy for temperature.  The correlation between the ice-core temperature and NH4/CO2 is nearly perfect. See Reference: “650,000 year CO2, NH4, and Temperature”  

Clearly, if ocean temperatures go up, less carbon dioxide and methane can be bound to the ocean waters, which are why CH4/CO2 concentration in the atmosphere goes up. The release of global warming-gases is known as out gassing. Additionally, there are very vast amounts of stored methane (methane-clathrates) in polar ocean and land regions.  As ocean and surface temperatures and ocean surface current temperatures increase, methane is out gassed, added to polar regional warming, and increased regional temperature (i.e. polar regional temperature feedback loop). The carbon cycle also absorbs Methane and Carbon Dioxide in the cooling cycle. –DGE]

The [greenhouse-gas concentrations] data came from analysis by scientists working on the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA). They studied a 3,270-meter tube of ice extracted from the surrounding ice sheet from the southern continent. Bloomberg reported in February last year that the trends in the 650,000-year series had been found to stretch further back in history.

Pre-industrialization

The findings widen the CO2 range prior to industrialization to between 172 and 300 ppm. Man-made emissions have raised the atmospheric concentration of the gas to about 385 parts per million in 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said April 23.

Methane prior to industrialization fluctuated between 350 and 800 parts per billion, according to the researchers. Present-day levels are about 1,770 ppb, they said.

“The fundamental conclusion that today's concentrations of these greenhouse-gases have no past analogue in the ice-core record remains firm,” Ed Brook, a scientist at Oregon State University, wrote in an accompanying article in Nature. “The remarkably strong correlations of methane and carbon dioxide with temperature reconstructions also stand.”

In the so-called paleo-climate archive, temperature increases typically came before gains in atmospheric carbon dioxide. That doesn't mean that CO2 doesn't act as a trigger for warming, he said.

[NOTE: Sun’s positions determine the limits of Earth’s warming and cooling. Over time, it is the warming greenhouse-gas Methane that does the “more warming” or “less warming,” depending upon the sun’s positions (re: Milankovitch Cycle). Carbon Dioxide does not have the out gas capacity of Methane.  Therefore Carbon Dioxide plays a lesser roll in temperature change.  Until after 1750, there were minimum forest clearing and burning, and human emissions for the Earth Temperature Cycle to deal with.  –DGE]

Ocean Currents

“We know that if the greenhouse-gases had not responded to the physical changes within the climate system at the end of ice ages, the planet would actually not have made the transition to warm phases.” “The warming was simply not enough without the increase of greenhouse-gases.”

Historical changes in gas levels can be attributed to alterations in ocean currents, tropical wetlands and vegetation, and the advance and retreat of polar ice sheets, locking methane up in the soil/oceans and then releasing it.

“Today, the concentration of CO2 is only marginally driven by these historical changes.” “More than 90 percent of these CO2 changes are driven directly through the emission of so-called new carbon dioxide that has not been in the climate system for the last 60 million years, because that carbon dioxide comes from fossil fuel reservoirs” that are burned for energy.

Ambitious Goals

Over the last 150 years, the concentration of CO2 has risen more than 100 times faster than any recorded change derived from the ice cores. That raises concern about whether global warming can be contained to within the +2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) that the European Union is targeting, he said.

[NOTE: Over the last 150 years the concentration of CH4 has risen much faster than CO2.  –DGE]

“The speed of the increase of carbon dioxide [and methane] concentration in the atmosphere makes us conclude that climate goals such as the 2-degree Celsius goal have become now very, very ambitious goals to achieve: not impossible, but by now very ambitious.”

Fin

With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse-gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).

With ignorance or malice, no national leader or IPCC or UNFCCC has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.  Correcting global warming is going to be hard and costly, but must be accomplished quickly.  The politicians have yet to understand global warming temperature increase and its consequences, which make starting global warming mitigation very difficult.  Tempus Fugit  

Methane - The Driving Force of Global Warming

By David G. Eselius

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), in accordance with the Global Change Research Act of 1990, is conducting the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that evaluates, integrates and interprets the findings of the $2.6 billion USGCRP assessments every four years.

The Act requires a report to the President and the Congress. Previous assessments were completed in 2000 and 2009.  Final reports are available on the USGCRP website. Reference: USGCRP website LINK: http://www.globalchange.gov/  

In reviewing Assessment "Global Climate Change Impacts in the US" (2009) it appears that there is inadequate reporting of the 650,000 years of interglacial period that is the foundation of Earth's existing climate system, and post 1750 Industrial Age global warming temperature change.  Reference: USGCRP "Global Climate Change Impacts in the US” (2009) LINK: http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-assessments/global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-us-2009  

Interglacial and global temperature-regulation reference information is available at Blogger Global Warming 2050-2099:

● Blogger "Obama’s Global Warming Briefing - Preindustrial Age," AUGUST 29, 2011

● Blogger "Obama’s Global Warming Briefing 1750-2099," AUGUST 31, 2011

A key finding within USGCRP assessment is that global climate change has increased over the past 50 years. Reported is that this observed change is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.  

In fact, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are a significant forcing gas that exceeded a temperature “tripping” point for emissions of methane (CH4).  Nether the less, regulating post 1750 Industrial Age human-induced greenhouse gas emissions is the only global temperature regulation technique that can help reduce global warming temperature increase.   

Methane (CH4), and to a lesser extent carbon dioxide (CO2), is the gas that regulates global warming.  

Natural Temperature Regulation - Natural release of stored methane is the driving force of interglacial temperature periods.  Earth’s cycle of temperatures occur about every 100,000 years for more than 20 million years.  Reference: “650,000 year CO2, NH4, and Temperature” graph LINK: http://www.realclimate.org/epica.jpg%20%20

Current ice-core methane content is well above the normal temperature cycle.  Methane (CH4) is now at ~1,790 ppb and is 156% greater than 650,000 years of historic interglacial CH4 peak levels of 700 ppb and with 350 ppb at interglacial low periods.  Current ice-core carbon dioxide (CO2) level is only 40% greater than 650,000 years of historic high CO2 peak levels of 280 ppm. Methane has a global warming potential (GWP) that is 72 times grater than that of carbon dioxide.

There are vast (or huge) stores of methane in the oceans and North/South Polar Regions that are part of global interglacial carbon-cycle sinks and sources.   

This change of methane’s global warming roll to that of primary global warming temperature-regulation gas identifies methane as a major component of global warming (aka, climate change).