Global Warming - Beginning, Middle, End

Rev 20 Jan 2012  

It is the accumulation of increasing atmospheric global warming greenhouse gases that result in global warming temperature increase.  Major components of greenhouses are carbon dioxide (CH4) and methane (CH4).   

Some scientists raised the alarm that large quantities of methane might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas methane clathrate (aka, hydrate) deposits trapped in marine and permafrost-associated sediments. Even if only a fraction of the liberated methane were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas and the persistence of its carbon dioxide oxidation product (CO2) heightens concerns that gas clathrate dissociation could represent a slow geologic tipping point for Earth's contemporary period of global warming. However, in human race terms, current global warming rate-of-increase is not slow; but it is about ten times faster than the beginning of the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma, which is the greatest recorded geologic mass extinction event. (Ma - megaannum is a unit of time equal to one million years)

The 1750 Christan Era (CE) Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) methane and carbon dioxide have accumulated within the atmosphere in massive amounts.  By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change.  Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as a result of human activity.  Scientists suggest that left unchecked, too soon Modern Global Warming accumulated warming forces will exceed natural carbon dioxide and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.

Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook, 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.”  Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now.  This hydrocarbon infrastructure is going to last another 50 years plus, at least.  Those nations and others are “locking-in the global carbon budget.”

Following table is listing 2009 CE annual carbon dioxide emissions estimates (in thousands of CO2 metric tonnes): China 7,037,864, United States, European Union 3,623,402, India 1,629,959, Russia 1,528,568, Japan 1,092,878, Germany 755,140. Without a rapid and large expansion of nuclear energy replacing proposed and existing hydrocarbon facilities, there will be a 2017 CE “locking-in the global carbon budget.”   

There is a large time lag to rebuild current hydrocarbon infrastructure into new clean energy infrastructure that results in a Earth temperature-decrease responses to emitted greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural Arctic methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.   

Because of 250 years of growing human carbon dioxide emissions, Earth’s temperature increase exceeds life terminating +5 oC at 2050-2099 CE. Natural Arctic triggered “methane clathrate gun effect” will force a faster rate of temperature increase. That is, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC sooner with increased atmospheric methane content than with carbon dioxide emissions alone. Estimates to “turn off” the methane clathrate gun are to be reviewed. Human races-end depends upon the established regional and global temperature ranges.   

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Greenhouse concentrations 1750 CE levels were historic carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Current concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb). The Methane concentration increase of ~164% is very disturbing; indicated is that the Arctic Ocean surface to mid-depth temperatures have increased causing weakening of the methane clathrate cap-over-sediments. Global warming is a matter of understanding projected events based upon past and current events. The Arctic methane is now entering the atmosphere; as Arctic and global temperatures increase, methane releases increases, thus increasing global temperatures to End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma levels.

Technically the current East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments are identified within the below Science abstract.

"Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf"

Science, 5 March 2010:

Vol. 327 no. 5970 pp. 1246-1250

DOI: 10.1126/science.1182221

By Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Anatoly Salyuk, Vladimir Yusupov, Denis Kosmach, and Örjan Gustafsson

ABSTRACT

Transfer to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in place. Here, we show that more than 5000 at-sea observations of dissolved methane demonstrates that greater than 80% of ESAS bottom waters and greater than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane regarding to the atmosphere. The current atmospheric venting flux, which is composed of a diffusive component and a gradual ebullition component, is on par with previous estimates of methane venting from the entire World Ocean. Leakage of methane through shallow ESAS waters needs to be considered in interactions between the bio-geosphere and a warming Arctic climate.

Received for publication 21 September 2009.

Accepted for publication 21 January 2010

Fin

A non technical article of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane location is identified below.

"Massive Methane Melt off Siberia"

—By Julia Whitty

Mother Jones, Thu Mar. 4, 2010

Arctic seabed stores of methane are now destabilizing and venting vast stores of frozen methane—a greenhouse gas more than 30 times potent than carbon dioxide. The paper, in the prestigious journal Science, reports the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf—long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane—is instead perforated and leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Melting of even a fraction of the clathrates stored in that shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming. Lead author Natalia Shakhova Shakhova of the International Arctic Research Center tells U of Alaska Fairbanks: "The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans. Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area encompassing more than three-quarter million square miles of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean—three times larger than the nearby Siberian wetlands formerly considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane.

Shakhova’s research shows the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is already emitting 7 teragrams (1 teragram = 1.1 million tons) of methane yearly, about as much as the all the oceans of the world.

"Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," says Shakhova. "If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be significantly larger."

From 2003 through 2008 the researchers took annual research cruises on the shelf, sampling seawater at various depths, and sampling the air above the ocean. Their findings:

■ More than 80 percent of the deep water and greater than half of surface water had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater.

■ In some areas, the saturation levels reached at least 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher in the winter.

■ In the air directly above the ocean surface, methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hot spots. (This, combined with results from a winter expedition, showed the methane is not only being dissolved in the water but also bubbling out into the atmosphere as well.)

■ Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10 percent higher than the global baseline, yet those registered over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf rose another 5 to 10 percent higher than that.

[NOTE: Because Earth's climate base has yet to increase enough to balance with warming forces (and Arctic methane clathrate gas release is temperature and pressure associated), even if all human hydrocarbon emissions were now ceased, there is to be a considerable amount of Arctic methane yet to be released over centuries, which results in more global warming.  --DGE]

In the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane doesn’t have enough time to oxidize, and more of it rises to the surface and escapes into the atmosphere. That fact, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, adds an extreme volatility [positive regenerative feedback] to this calculated variable in the climate models.

"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow clathrate [aka, hydrate] deposits will alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times," says Shakhova. [Resulting from continued human hydrocarbon greenhouse gas release, it appears there shall be too soon considerably more than one percent of the Arctic methane clathrate release. --DGE]

Fin

It appears there are NO technical articles available that identify Arctic northern Canada and Alaskan sea shoreline methane venting into the atmosphere; which is an indication North American politicians control of funding for science education and research. To achieve covert political ends, untoward politicians control large funding and responses through selected small government funding of education and R&D institutions. Arctic northern Canada, U.S., Greenland, Norway, and Russian sea shoreline methane venting are within the continental boundaries and need to be part of national greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Antarctica is another region of methane emissions interest.    

Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people 2050 CE.  No national leader (excepting China government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011") has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase. U.S. political responses to global warming are chaotic and global warming is at the crisis point.  

It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over time, by stopping human GHGs there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric GHGs concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit and reduce the size of the human population rate-of-growth. Implementation of some form of geoengineering is to be considered. Extremely limiting use of hydrocarbon energy is the most feasible and timely action that may reduce global warming temperature increase.   

As a political ploy to remain dependent upon hydrocarbon economies, Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and are eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building 2017 CE "carbon budget infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies. Before 2020 CE, to save the human races involves significant reductions of human carbon dioxide emissions, which costs several trillions US dollars. China has introduced its nuclear construction program; but it may be too little too late.  

China has built hundreds of new coal fired electrical generators to support their years of economic expansion. China's greenhouse gas emissions are likely to start falling only after 2030 CE. India needs help to reduce carbon their emissions. The U.S. politicians will not reduce global warming emissions prior to 2030 CE; well beyond 2017 CE tripping point of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in. Changing political dynamics poses the major obstacle to changing national hydrocarbon economies to that of hydrocarbon-free economies. Without actual global energy-use changes there is no hope for human races, they end 2050-2099 CE.

Global Warming to the End

Rev 01 Jan 2012

Scientists have declared that understanding natural methane release is a major priority.  Money and people devoted to the issue natural methane are minimal compared with the risk of 2050-2099 Christian Era (CE) destruction of human races.  

Experts have long known that northern Polar Regions were a land storehouse of frozen carbon, locked up in the form of leaves, roots and other organic matter trapped in icy soil — a mix that, when thawed, can produce methane and carbon dioxide, global warming gases that trap heat and warm the planet. In recent years scientist have come to realize just how much land organic debris there is.  Not often mentioned is Polar sea methane deposits that have vastly greater stores of methane and carbon dioxide. The source of sea methane and carbon dioxide are frozen seabed deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas.  More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science.  Both land and sea storage of methane are temperature dependent.  As temperature increases, methane and carbon dioxide are released, which produces a localized temperature increase and more release of methane (a positive feedback loop).  Sea methane clathrate deposits are both temperature and pressure dependent.  A increase in temperature in shallow water releases more methane than in deeper water.  The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because its methane clathrate deposits are so shallow. Recent analyses suggest that the permafrost thaw could turn the Arctic into a net source of carbon (methane and carbon dioxide), possibly within a decade or two.  Carbon that is 30,000 years old is defrosting and emerging at numerous spots around Fairbanks, Alaska, and carbon as old as 43,000 years emerging from lakes in Siberia, Soviet Union. If these carbon releases continue or increase, the “methane clathrate gun” is released. Reference: Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented,"   

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly.  The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Methane at 1,850 ppb is the highest it has ever been for more than 60 million years. Methane is a much more powerful global warming gas than is carbon dioxide. This high level of methane brings into doubt the survivability of 9 to 10 billion people.

Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.  

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Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives anthropogenic energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels.  From type and amount of energy used, there originates increased natural carbon and methane atmospheric levels.  The 1750 CE Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) has accumulated massive amounts of gases over time.  By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and anthropogenic GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as result of human activity.  Scientists suggest that left unchecked Modern Global Warming accumulated natural and anthropomorphic warming forces will exceed carbon and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.  There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm carbon dioxide, much less above 450 ppm.  It is very important to note that most natural methane levels and some natural carbon levels are atmospheric and ocean-current temperature dependent.  The least-cost global warming option is to now lower Earth global warming and steadily transform global human energy systems over the coming decades to lower human GHG emissions and than lower to zero emissions.   

Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years with a continued rise in temperature.  A major difference between current global warming temperature increase event and 252.28 Ma End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming infrastructure lock-in point of no-return comes around 2017 CE.  Under existing world leadership's covert carbon energy policies and opposition to conversion from carbon economies to nuclear energy, all human races shall be destroyed 2050-2099 CE.  This means, no one under the current age of 30 survives global warming temperature increase.  

Begun December 1989, the UN talks held since the 1992 ‘Earth Summit’ formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.  Catastrophic, irreversible “climate change” represents the gravest threat today to human civilization.  Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate.  Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade.  In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory (“business as usual”).  If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach.  The consequences of exceeding global warming tripping points are very severe.   

LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING - The political responses to global warming temperature increase have been decades of planned failures.  No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.  Because world leaders do not acknowledge global warming, the popular news media still does not recognize global warming temperature increase.   

A GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE PLAN - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels).  Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century.  To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).  

No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.

There are only three avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit the size of the human population rate of growth

By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.

Human and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations exceed critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts are abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and most important methane clathrates venting.  

The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP 3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 CE in Kyoto, Japan, stipulates that developed countries collective greenhouse emissions should be reduce by 5.2% from 1990 CE levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012 CE), primarily through meeting their self imposed national targets. Recent research showed that global emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions increased by 75% between 1970 and 2004 CE to about 45,000 megaton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq).  The greenhouse gas reduction mission of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol has been a complete failure caused by too many indifferent world leaders who want their nations to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.

A Window of Opportunity Closes
 
Within the scientific community, there remains a long felt concern that unless global warming greenhouse gas emissions do not soon decline by 2020 CE, a window of opportunity closes.  If, having missed the window of opportunity, Earth’s new temperature regulation establishes a stabilizing point that is an unlivable temperature increase prior to 2099 CE.  

U.S. Government politics involving global warming (aka, Climate Change) has resulted in no government agency adequately identifying deep concerns about the accelerating progress of global warming temperature increase and resulting impacts upon the human life cycle.  Nor has any global leader identified pending elimination of human races.  

Contributing to the termination of the human race is a projected population expansion to 9 billion people that greatly exceeds the capacity of Earth to support at the current rate of per capita consumption increase (or GDP standard of living increase).  Projected energy consumption per capita is increasing dramatically.  The consequences of current 7 billion people, increased mechanized harvesting of Earth resources, and ineffective Earth resource management, adds to the concern that the human race will terminate within 2050-2099 CE.  

It is astonishing (and disheartening) that world leaders and U.S. Congressional mismanagement is the fate of young adults and human races.  The political understanding of the consequences of global warming temperature increase and the political understanding sciences of the Modern Global Warming Era are inadequate.  Expected is that politics will continue “business as usual” increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions.  

According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Figure SPM.7) report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2099 CE.  The amount of increased unmitigated anthropomorphic and natural greenhouse gas emissions determines the date of the temperature-threshold crossing +6.0 °C.  Continuing “business as usual” human carbon energy greenhouse gas-increases result in Earth’s temperature crossing +6.0 °C temperatures 2050-2099 CE.  However, if the Polar Regions’ methane clathrate gun explodes, the crossing of +6.0 °C occurs much sooner than current projections of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions.  

Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic bacteria degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure.  Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect.  The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost.  Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53 to 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization.  In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.  

When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees.  The clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.”  There is strong evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years; most notably in connection with the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma.   

Runaway methane clathrate breakdown caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years.  Continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead Modern Global Warming to changes that are ten times faster than End-Permian Mass Extinction.  

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped a massive amount of greenhouse gases (about 500 gigatons of carbon) into the atmosphere resulting in some releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in ocean marine sediments (potential 500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Polar Regions permafrost (potential 7.5 - 400 gigatons). Triggered by massive human carbon releases accumulations since 1750 and resulting massive increased methane releases, current rate of global temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of End-Permian Mass Extinction.  

Earth today is experiencing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly changes from a Polar very cold and seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state.  Mid-level latitude is very hot.  There is no pause or slow temperature rise.  Evolutionary transitions do not occur.  “Adaption” does occur slowly for the 9 billion people inhabiting Earth.  However, like slowly boiling a frog in a pot of water, the 9 billion people die within the 2050-2099 period.  

Talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are “the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.”  However, 1990s talks diverted from UNFCCC solving the global warming temperature increase crisis to that of politicians agreeing to the corruption of investors to build a large “alternative renewable energy” industry, shut down the Europe and U.S. nuclear industries, and the 2009 transfer-of-wealth of US$100 billion to “poor” nations’ leaders.  Since 1992, world leaders have sold out to political special interest the ‘time necessary’ and ‘means available’ to correct global warming temperature increase.  

In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting.  “Businesses as usual” is the normal course of anthropomorphic and natural accelerating rate of global warming activity.  In the 2000s,  “business as usual” scenario reporting of greenhouse gas emissions lost out to the political opaqueness and diversions of building the “alternative renewable green energy” politics, bashing nuclear energy, and the politics of not reporting the important greenhouse gas methane.  This political delay in responding to the global warming event may have placed us beyond ability to respond adequately to stopping global temperature increase.  That is, we have exceeded too many critical trip points: methane/carbon greenhouse gas atmospheric considerations, aerosol density, soot density, intensity of carbon economies, public apathy, lacking capability of productive political response, to name a few trip points.  Additionally, there remains a very strong campaign by those who want to continue fossil fuel economies and "business as usual."  Scientific global warming story has not been powerful enough to offset political opposition to truth.  Mitigation is the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something.  Mitigation-funding necessary to stop global warming became global/national transfer of wealth schemes and “renewable energy” corruption.  The real political purpose of “renewable energy” is to act as a public diversion and pay off the renewable energy investors while the politicians increase carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economies.  The rest of the political global warming response is history.  There is no global warming mitigation.  The rate of global temperature increase is rapidly accelerating. The global warming path is clear - Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining climate at a livable level.  

If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the +2.0°C target will slip out of reach:    

● +2.0°C: Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020, in 2030-2040 Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature.  World population reaches 8.7 billion by 2040 and exceeds 9 billion prior to 2050. Coral reefs almost extinct - In North America, a new dust bowl bring deserts to life in the high plains states, centered on Nebraska.  In addition, wipes out agriculture and cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north.  Major to massive dust storms sweep the Midwest.

 Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas.  In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages.  Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics.  Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction.

 In the 20th century, sea has risen by an average of 2mm per year, but it is accelerating and over the last decades, the rise in sea level has gone approximately 70% faster.  Even in the most optimistic scenario, which requires extremely dramatic climate change goals, major technological advances and strong international cooperation to stop emitting greenhouse gases and polluting the atmosphere, the sea would continue to rise.  After now stop emitting greenhouse gases, by the year 2100 AD the sea will have raised by 60 cm (1.9 feet) and by the year 2500 AD the rise in sea level will be 1.8 meters (5.9 feet).  For the two more realistic scenarios, calculated based on the emissions and pollution stabilizing, the results show that there will be a sea level rise of about 75 cm (2.5 feet) and that by the year 2500 AD the sea will have risen by 2 meters (6.6 feet).  IPCC stated in AR4 that global warming should cause sea levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by 2100.

 Warming Weather - Temperature, humidity, altitude, ocean currents, and pressure differences fuels the mid-latitude storms affect Earth’s most populated regions.  Warmer temperatures increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere.  The result is a hotter, more humid environment.  At mid latitudes, conditions are hot and humid.  At the poles the air is cold and dry; a little extra heat, water vapor, and regional methane clathrate breakdown raises temperatures greatly, remedial action becomes ineffectual.  

 Rain forest turns to desert - The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke.  Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming.  The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years.  Polar bears, walruses and ringed seals all go extinct.  Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away.  Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa.  

+4.0°C to +4.4°C: Scientists warn only one-tenth of the 2050 world’s people will survive.  Of 9 billion people only 900 million survive this point, which is a number near that of the 1785 global population.  

Melting ice caps displace millions - Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic put Siberian and Canada permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2).  Global temperatures keep on rising rapidly in consequence.  Melting ice caps and sea level rises displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai.  Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece.  More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs.  Agriculture collapses in Australia. Students now enrolled in schools and universities face this future:

WATER - Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes.  Groundwater is increasingly over drafted and surface water is in very short supply.

ECOSYSTEMS – There are major extinctions around the globe.  Food chain disruptions are widespread.  Coral mortality is spreading.  Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as ~40% of ecosystems affected.  Surface and groundwater reserves are critically short of water.

FOOD - All production of cereals decrease.  There is increased ocean acidification, increased water hypoxia, and decreased fish biomass.

COAST – There is increased damage from floods and storms, with about 30% loss of coastal wetlands.  Additional 2 to 15 million people are at risk of coastal flooding each year.  There is increased loss of groundwater storage capacity from saltwater inundation into coastal aquifers.

HEALTH – There are increased health burdens from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts.  Substantial increased burden on health services.

SINGLE EVENTS - Long-term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss, leading to reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and inundation of low-lying areas.  It is to be noted that the (<10%) likelihood in the 21st century Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) shutdown may still be significant given the high consequences of an abrupt shutdown.  MOC shutdown includes adverse effects on food production and terrestrial vegetation, changes in fisheries and effects on oceanic carbon dioxide uptake and oceanic oxygen concentrations, an increased warming of southern hemisphere high latitudes and tropical drying.  Weather change patterns are also associated with MOC and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) activity.

SOCIAL STABILITY – Society’s social structure will increasingly breakdown as life support systems break down under the demands of increased population, increased climate change, increased regional temperatures, decreased food supplies, and increased life support distribution issues.

+5.4°C: Rising sea levels in the coming centuries is perhaps one of the most catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures.  Left unchanged, the sea levels rise by 5 meters (16.4 feet).  “Business as usual” emissions produce a 1.1-meter (3.6 FEET) rise of sea level by 2099.  Only a very small fraction of the 9-10 billion could continue to exist at the Polar Regions.     

+6.0°C: Long-term effects on global warming “climate change” are largely "irreversible" for more than a million years.  

Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.”  Some resulting impacts were abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and methane clathrates venting.  

Carbon dioxide has unique long-term effects on climate change that are largely "irreversible" for thousands of years after emissions stop (zero further emissions).  Even if carbon and methane emissions were to cease completely, current atmospheric temperatures increase will not decrease significantly.  Warming seas release of methane trapped in sub-oceanic sediments and methane clathrates.  Earth’s human races are long gone before methane fireballs tear across the Polar Region sky, causing further warming.  If human and natural greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the model of global warming is similar to End-Permian Mass Extinction. Major differences between current global warming temperature increase event and End-Permian is that current temperature increase was caused by massive human energy use carbon emissions resulting from population growth from 1750 CE (that had ~900 million people) to a Modern Global Warming population of ~7 billion people.  Additionally, beginning stages of current temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of the End-Permian Mass Extinction.  Oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer.  Deserts extend almost to the Arctic.  "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which strip the land of soil.  Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges.  Life on Earth snuffed out as temperatures rise higher and than stabilizes for more than a hundred million years. Benign neglect of Earth’s Carbon/Methane Carbon Cycle produces stress on Earth of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures, which is evident.  Human factors do not change to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reductions.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy.  “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity and is unmanageable on the larger scale. “Renewable” energy projects have a history of significant large amounts of corruption.

The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is continuation of persistent European-U.S. communist interests, carbon economy interests, “alternative renewable energy” interests, and anti-nuclear interest.  Most certainly other global warming problems, but these listed interests are the largest manageable obstacle.

Commentary letters identifying some additional issues of global warming found at ‘Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”’:

(1) Blogger “Global Warming NUCLEAR 1990 to 2011 Decline of Global Clean Nuclear Energy”

(2) Blogger “Global Warming POLITICS U.S. Renewable Energy”

(3) Blogger “Global Warming PHYSICS Catastrophic Crisis”

(4) Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented"   

This letter is the only public document that presents an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THESE BLOGGER ADDRESSES ALONG.  Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase.  The liberal media has stakes in maintaining the proper image of U.S. left Democrat and European leadership while the conservative media is too concerned about their ratings to discuss Modern Global Warming.  Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming.  Lacking a variety of reliable peer-reviewed scientific reporting of the Modern Global Warming era, too soon the global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable.  It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming.  If there is no U.S., German, and Global Energy Policy of 2012 CE that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099 CE.  

Go to Blogger NUCLEAR 1/4

Global Warming Decline of Human Races

By David G Eselius

Natural gas is a gas consisting primarily of methane.  Natural gas/methane is carbon energy sources.  Most natural gas is created by two mechanisms: biogenic and thermogenic. Biogenic gas is created by methanogenic organisms in marshes, bogs, landfills, and shallow sediments. Deeper in the earth, at greater temperature and pressure, thermogenic gas is created from buried organic material.  Coal, oil, natural gas, and methane (aka, coal bed methane) were formed as part of the thermogenic process.  

For many tens of millions of years, leaking of oil and gas into oceans under pressure and low temperature has formed very vast stores of methane clathrates (hydrates) that are now out gassing into the atmosphere due to increased global warming temperate.  Increased atmospheric methane levels are very serious problems that will lead to the destruction of the human races 2050-2099.      

Methane Formation - When temperatures of the organic-rich sedimentary rocks exceed 120oC (250oF) the organic remains within the rocks begin to be "cooked" and methane, oil, and natural gas are formed from the organic remains and expelled from the source rock. It takes millions of years for these source rocks to be buried deeply enough to attain these maturation temperatures and additional millions of years to cook (or generate).  

Methane (CH4) prior to industrialization fluctuated between 350 and 800 parts per billion (ppb).  Present-day methane levels are about ~1,770 ppb.  Methane has a global warming potential that is 72 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2).  To a large extent, ocean/atmosphere properties govern methane and carbon dioxide gas sink and source activity.  Wave action and temperatures significantly govern ocean/atmosphere gas exchanges.   

Combined methane and carbon dioxide produce a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) that results in significant global warming/cooling activities.

Methane and Carbon Dioxide – pre- and post-1750 AD

It is necessary to understand Earth’s “normal” interglacial temperature regulation to understand existing and future global warming.  If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that methane and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) will need to be reduced from its current levels to pre-1750 AD radiative forcing (Wm-2) levels, but likely less than that.  

The largest uncertainty in the global warming target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings such as methane.  An initial ~450-ppm CO2-eq target may be achievable by phasing out coal use, except where carbon dioxide is captured and contained and adaption of agricultural/forestry practices sequester carbon.  If the present overshoot of this target CO2-eq is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.

The increase in numbers of human beings and the Industrial Age’s (post-1750 AD) staggering amount of use of carbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) has resulted in increased global warming greenhouse gas emissions far and above historical “normal” interglacial high temperature levels.

Existing combined greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) form a carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2-eq) that is the largest uncertainty in the target for possible changes of non-CO2 forcings.   

Long ice core records show a strong correlation between local temperature in Arctic and Antarctica and the globally mixed gases carbon dioxide and methane, but the causal connections between greenhouse gas variables is not yet clear.

Relationships of methane and carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) of the preindustrial interglacial periods vs. industrial period (post-1750 AD) appear not established.  To understand better paleoclimate temperature cycles vs. future global warming temperature increase, it is necessary to establish the over time comparative CO2-eq levels, or comparative values of radiative forcing (Wm-2).

Due to existing global warming trends, it is very unlikely that the Earth will naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years.  Considering trends of population growth, increased carbon energy use (coal, oil, and natural gas), increases of methane level, and increased carbon dioxide level, Earth’s average temperature before 2099 will be a life terminating +6°C higher than interglacial high warming period.

Increases in atmospheric carbon “tripped” Earth’s “normal” temperature regulation into existing global warming temperature increase while methane increase rapidly followed. For more than 60 million years, carbon dioxide and methane levels has never been this high before.

Variations of Sun/Earth orbit and greenhouse gas concentration and human activity are clearly consistent.  However, it is not always clear as to what drives what changes.

METHANE

The historic rate of methane intake/out gassing between ocean and atmosphere appears to correlate with resultant Sun/Earth orbit mechanics, as identified in Sun’s angle of incidence equations of the Milankovitch Earth/Sun Cycle.  That is, an air-water solute appears to move smoothly and systematically from high-concentration areas to low-concentration areas.

The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth’s global warming climate system.  Without the Sun’s warmth, Earth gets very cold very quickly.  

For more than 60 million years, the warming period of the ~100,000 year interglacial cycle, resulted in greenhouse gas peaks of methane ~300 ppm to ~800 ppb.  Due to human activity, at existing ~1,770 ppb, Earth’s global warming methane is now ~970 ppb greater than “normal” interglacial peaks of methane.

Some scientist are concerned about abrupt greenhouse gas changes while positive feed back temperature changes produces the potential for the additional release of methane stored in soils, wetlands, and oceans of Earth’s temperature regulation system.

Of particular concern are large quantities of methane stored as methane clathrate (hydrates) (water ice crystals with methane molecules trapped within them) in the sea floor and in Arctic permafrost.

The quantities of methane that could enter the atmosphere through temperature increase pathways are staggering: estimates range from 500 Gigaton of Carbon (GtC) to 10,000 GtC for methane stored in sea-floor clathrates, and from 7.5 GtC to 400 GtC for methane stored in permafrost. This may be compared with the total amount of methane currently in the atmosphere of only about 4 GtC.  Releasing even only small amounts of the methane from clathrate to the atmosphere could clearly have major consequences for the Earth’s warming.

Recent research carried out in 2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tonnes of methane being released with concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times above normal. Such regional positive feed back of methane releases produce increased Polar regional temperature increases, which can quickly increase the global warming temperatures.  

The magnitude of these additional methane emissions is very difficult to estimate based on existing data. Sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits is a cause of past and future geologic global warming climate changes.  Possibly linked in this way are the Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4 Ma (million years ago)) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (55 Ma).
 
Controlling methane out gassing and re-uptake depends upon global and regional ocean/atmosphere conditions and Polar land/sea temperatures that result in methane and methane clathrate out gassing.  The only control mechanism for methane gas atmospheric concentration-reduction is to reduce the global temperature to preindustrial level.  

CARBON DIOXIDE

The carbon dioxide atmospheric content excursion range prior to industrialization was between 172 and 300 parts per million (ppm).  Human emissions have raised existing atmospheric concentration of the carbon dioxide gas to about ~390 ppm.

Due to human activity, carbon, with a global warming potential of one, is ~90 ppm greater than “normal” interglacial peaks of carbon.

METHANE and CARBON DIOXIDE

Global warming is now 0.8°C greater than the more than 60 million year high-warming interglacial periods.  Interglacial warming temperature high to low temperature excursion range is 1-1.5°C.

Methane and carbon dioxide are integral components of the global carbon cycle and its links to global warming.
 
The CO2-equivalent emission (CO2-eq) of a greenhouse gas is the amount of carbon dioxide the emissions from which would cause the same warming effect, over a given time frame, as the emissions of a given amount of this greenhouse gas. The CO2-eq is calculated by multiplying the amount of this gas with its so-called ‘global warming potential’ (GWP).  There are additional factors to consider when calculating Earth temperature stabilization points.  

It takes at least several decades for Earth’s temperature to rise to the current methane and carbon dioxide heating potential.  Methane and carbon dioxide are why Earth’s global warming greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-eq) must peak 2015-2020, and than decline thereafter.

As defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), radiative forcing is a measure of how the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when factors that affect climate are altered. The word "radiative" signifies that the factors affect the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation within the Earth’s atmosphere. Positive forcing tends to warm the surface while negative forcing tends to cool. Radiative forcing values are expressed in Watts per square meter (Wm-2) (Watt (power) = 1 joule per second).

Existing concentrations and radiative forcing (Wm-2) for (a) carbon dioxide (CO2), (b) methane (CH4) and (c) nitrous oxide (N2O): ● carbon dioxide at ~370 ppm is ~1.6 Wm-2, ● methane at ~1,750 ppb is 0.45 Wm-2, and ● nitrous oxide at 320 ppb is 0.14 Wm-2.  

Identifying pre-1750 AD levels of radiative forcing (Wm-2) involves conditional assessments that are beyond the scope of this letter. Reference: IPCC AR4, 6.4.1.1 - “How Do Glacial-Interglacial Variations in the Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide Compare with the Industrial Era Greenhouse Gas Increase?”      

Existing radiative forcing (Wm-2) ratios identify: carbon dioxide as 1, methane as 0.28 and nitrous oxide as 0.09.  Methane and carbon dioxide are primary forcing agents for global warming temperature increase.  

Opposition to recognizing atmospheric methane AND global warming temperature increase are derived from politicians!  

Many methane sources are sighted.  However, the oceans’ surface conditions are the primary source for increase and decrease of atmospheric methane.  Global and regional temperatures and surface ocean currents mostly affect oceans’ out gassing and re-uptake cycles.  The higher the atmospheric temperature and the greater the wave action the more ocean methane is released.

Historical ~100,000 interglacial changes in green house gas levels can be attributed to alterations in ocean currents, tropical wetlands, vegetation, and the advance and retreat of polar ice sheets, changes to global warming heating patterns, and the locking/release of methane/carbon dioxide within soil/oceans, and the Milankovitch Earth/Sun Cycle.

Most new carbon dioxide comes from fossil fuel reservoirs of coal, oil, and natural gas (i.e., natural gas is methane gas).  Most new methane derives from oceans.  

Today, the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide add to historical interglacial changes.  More than 90 percent of these new methane and new carbon dioxide increases have not been in the climate system for more than 60 million years, which makes existing global warming a significant geophysical anomaly.   

IPCC Assessment Reports

1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report (AR2) summary report section has 28 entries concerning methane, sinks chemistry, history, and potential future of the methane molecule.

For political reasons, to minimize the political importance of global warming temperature increase and maximize renewable energy funding, promote transfer of wealth (and increase government corruption and purchase special interest support) though carbon trades, and the funding of Copenhagen 2009 COP15 wealth transfers—the importance of methane gas was dropped from IPCC reporting and Assessment Reports.

IPCC First and Second Assessment Reports (AR1 and AR2) reported methane activity.  Later, as a cover and diversion to not properly representing the roll of global warming greenhouse gases, leading world leaders published a new set of political scenarios in 2000 (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios - SRES).  Scenarios became global warming mitigation foundations within the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001) and within the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007).
 
IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (AR3) in 2001 and IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 hardly mention the powerful global warming methane gas.

IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, to be released) "will put greater emphasis on assessing the socio-economic aspects [i.e., SRES] of climate change and implications for sustainable development, risk management and the framing of a response through both adaptation and mitigation."

There is no IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of the role of methane within global temperature cycle.  There is no IPCC AR5 mention of reducing global warming temperatures. The intended purpose of IPCC’s AR3, AR4, and AR5 is to covertly continue world leaders’ carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.  

The IPCC’s shift from global warming science to the political diversion of SRES social issues occurred during the 1990s with the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol (adopted 11 December 1997).  Anti nuclear U.S. President Clinton’s administration suppressed the world’s efforts to reduce global warming temperature increase.  During the same time, methane was dropped from global warming consideration.

NUCLEAR ENERGY

A significant portion of total global carbon emissions are from electricity generation - coal, specifically, accounts for up to one-third of global carbon emissions.  Coal is the largest reservoir of conventional fossil fuels, exceeding combined reserves of oil and gas. Therefore, to decrease carbon emissions and thus possibly help stop extreme global warming temperature increase from occurring, phasing out coal, oil, and natural gas is required.  

A 2011 federally-funded research underscores the conflicting ways in which fossil fuel burning affects the Earth's climate. It says that while coal use causes global warming via emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, it also releases relatively large amounts of sulfates and other particles that, although bad for the environment, cool the planet by blocking sunlight. Complicating matters is uncertainty over the amount of methane that leaks from natural gas operations and distribution.  Methane is an especially potent greenhouse gas.  It would be many decades before natural gas use would slow down global warming at all, and even then it would be making a small difference.  
 
This report indicates that reducing "emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide" and releasing "relatively large amounts of sulfates and other particles" may help in global warming mitigation. Although important global warming mitigation information is known, there is no UN or national government agency that is authorized to do global warming mitigation planning and implementation. Global warming responses remain dominated by the Euro-U.S. Green Neo-Communist movement.    

The only realistic way to curtail carbon dioxide emissions is to phase out coal, oil, and natural gas use except where carbon dioxide is captured and carbon sequester is functional.

The coal industry has staked its future on a new process known as coal carbon-sequestration gasification.  Water and oxygen mixed with the coal to create carbon monoxide and hydrogen.  Hydrogen is the fuel source, while the carbon monoxide converts to a concentrated stream of carbon dioxide.  There is no approved storage container for long-term storage of sequestrated carbon dioxide.

These gasification plants are not cheap to run: around one-quarter of the energy produced keeps the operation running.  All indications suggest that building them on a commercial scale will be expensive and that it will take decades to make a significant contribution to power production.  Electrical energy from coal carbon-sequestration gasification is much more expensive than energy derived from nuclear energy.  

For technical reasons “renewable” solar and wind does not work and never did work.  Renewable alternative energy is now considered an unreliable and counter productive energy source.
 
Only nuclear energy has adequate energy capacity to reduce human carbon emissions.  

Nuclear energy not expanding is due to more than four decades of anti nuclear social protest pressures and political desires to retain carbon economies.  Had more than 40 years of anti nuclear protests not occurred, the global warming problem would be reduced and increased response time available.  Now there is little chance that political positions about nuclear energy will change in time to effect a change to critical global warming gas emissions.

Resulting from political delays, the speed of the rapid increased methane and carbon dioxide concentration increase within the atmosphere brings the conclusion that global warming goals such as the +2-degree Celsius goal (or +1.5-degree Celsius goal) have now become a very, very ambitious goal to achieve, but are not impossible.  For +2-degree Celsius goal considerations see EU’s "The 2°C target" LINK: NOTE: Due to ongoing untoward world leader suppression of critical global warming information, the link to EU’s paper on "The 2°C target" is no longer available. Falsifying UN and government department global warming public information by untoward world leaders remain standard practice since the 1990s. With U.S. President Obama in office, control of media reporting of global warming is mandatory. The problem of information manipulation has gotten bigger with the internet.  Now internet hacking of websites can, and is, done by almost anyone with an ax to grind. Before, in the 1990s, untoward world leaders just manipulated official UN IPCC reporting.   

There is no official government agency or UN agency addressing issues of global warming temperature increase.  As far as the current crop of untoward world leaders are concerned, global warming does not exist.  Continuing as has been done for the past two decades, politicians will never act to end global warming temperature increase.  

Global warming temperature is to exceed life terminating +6°C prior to 2099.

WAR-GAME

A postulated military "war-game" provides insight into an extensive methane energy-battle and global warming scenario analysis.  

WAR-GAME CONDITIONS - The 2035 war-game global conditions encountered is a +2°C global warming temperature rise above pre industrial (i.e., pre 1750 AD greenhouse gas levels).  Global warming greenhouse gas emissions are to continue rising past year 2050 AD.

Global environmental and living conditions are deteriorating due to global warming temperature increase.  Increasingly disrupted are critical global marine and land food chains.  Populations are approaching 9 billion people while potable surface water and groundwater reserves are rapidly decreasing.  Global warming temperature continues to increase rapidly. Energy reserves remain adequate for now. Polar regional temperatures are at record highs, which enable increased access to polar resources.   

From the perspective of all eight Arctic nations, there is no established North/South Polar Regions’ “defense policy” and no “Polar military security policy.”  No international structure of legal-agreements exists as to the governing North/South Polar Regions’ methane clathrate mining and increasing Arctic methane atmospheric releases.

The Arctic’s east-west marine shipping passageway is now ice free for 9 months a year and open for shipping, mining, well drilling, and military sea-access.

As to whether to continue mining of Arctic methane-clathrates energy, or to stop the mining, eight Arctic nations and national partners are dividing into opposing forces.

To continue their “needed” methane mining, "Block A" established an Arctic Ocean blockade to their Arctic east-west commercial shipping routes, military access, oil/gas wells, and methane mining sites.

"Block B" threatens to go to war over Block A continued methane mining and blocked commercial access to the Arctic sea route.

Blocks A and B established military defensive and offensive positions.  Block B land forces are made ready to take over Block A’s land natural resources of oil and natural gas wells.

Arctic diplomatic relations are in a neutral country (Australia).

Politicians established spin mills to gather public support for what is a natural resource war.  (Think of Dustin Hoffman’s spin in the movie Wag the Dog (1997))

WAR-GAME ENDING – Unpredicted modern natural undersea landslide events produced catastrophic releases of under water clathrates methane gas.  A sea surface explosion of methane wiped out a third of Block B’s fleet of Arctic surface war ships.

Diplomats arranged agreements for a lifting of Block A’s blockade:

● Arctic sea routes are now too dangerous for commercial shipping.  Commercial shipping routes will remain closed, but Arctic sea routes are to remain open for oil and gas exploration.

● Land and sea forces would return to pre blockade positions.  

● Methane-clathrates mining would continue.

● The eight Arctic member nations are to adopt North/South Polar Regions’ defense and Polar military security policies.  

Secretly behind closed doors, world leaders acknowledged that there must be some problem with stopping global warming temperature increase.  However, important elections are to occur in 2038.  Thus, any action concerning global warming temperature increase would not be addressed until after the 2039 budget and stimulus hearings.  

CONCLUSIONS

The only available solution to global warming temperature increase is to act in haste and reduce human greenhouse gas emissions.  Releases of relatively large amounts of sulfates and other particles may aid in global cooling.  However, existing political structures are incapable of responding to needs of human races.

Long established Euro-U.S. political movements are undermining the public concepts of global warming.  Political special interest groups such as the Euro-U.S. Green-Neo Communist movement remain important as an anti nuclear influence.  Since the 1990s, the Clinton administration established the failings of global warming analysis within the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports and Work Groups.  Now the Euro-U.S. Green Neo-Communist movement is President Obama and left-Democrat’s political life force.  Undermining of UN and Euro-US global warming mitigation efforts continues.  

Scientists can only propose solutions.  The politicians must produce the global warming mitigation. However, there is no effective method to quickly and in a timely way alter an established path of political systems.  So far, the world leaders have pushed human races further down the path of 2050-2099 total human race elimination.