Human Race Lifespan: zero-years to 40-years

James Watt developed (1763–75) an improved version of Newcomen's engine, with a separate condenser. Watt's engine used 75% less coal than Newcomen's, and was hence much cheaper to run. 1750 CE is the start of the Industrial Revolution. The greenhouses gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), since the industrial period began in earnest (around the mid-1800s) concentrations of both carbon dioxide and methane have been rapidly increasing.

In fact, methane concentrations have more than doubled over the last 150 years.

Methane is a powerful global warming gas. In the early transitional period of natural methane release the molecules of methane can produce a global warming effect that is more than a hundred times greater than that of carbon dioxide molecules. Methane (or natural gas) is a very powerful global warming gas that has been underreported for political reasons of corruption.  

Ambient pre industrial times is 1750 CE. Modern Global Warming Era concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Methane plays a significant part of recent global warming temperature increase -- methane's contribution to enhanced greenhouse effect is almost half of that due to hydrocarbon carbon dioxide increases over the last 150 years.

Thirty six years ago, in 1976, methane in the atmosphere was identified as a significant greenhouse gas. By 2001 CE U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported large parts of multiple chapters are dedicated to examining the sources, sinks, chemistry, history and potential global warming future of methane. After 2001 CE, and with strong covert political encroachment upon the technical reporting of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs), untoward groups and politicians for reasons of money, power, greed, and corruption have promoted "renewable energy" and carbon trading within the European-U.S. market sectors. There was further destruction of the validity of IPCC reporting; successful blocking of hydrocarbon emission reductions; Euro-U.S. politicians increased nuclear clean energy dismantling; construction of hydrocarbon-use infrastructure increased; multinational coal production is increased; attempted disruption of U.S. domestic oil supplies; while a greater "renewable energy" distraction masks the course of human life destruction 2050-2055 CE.  

At issue is the accelerating use-rate of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) with its release of carbon dioxide and the accelerating temperature-rate release of methane within the Arctic Region. The rate of global warming temperature increase is a result of combination of methane and carbon dioxide gases increases. Mother Nature has issued her last warning: Unless natural and human global warming gases peak this decade and thereafter decline, successful mitigation of global warming is very much in doubt.             

The global warming potential (GWP) methane within decomposed methane clathrates is very greatly more than that of carbon dioxide. Some key facts about methane clathrates (aka, methane hydrates) make them particularly interesting to climatologists. First, they may make up a significant portion of total fossil carbon reserves, including coal, oil, and natural gas. Current best guesses suggest that maybe 500 to 2,000 gigatonnes of carbon may be stored as methane clathrates (5-20% of estimated total fossil carbon reserves). Some estimates are as high as 10,000 gigatonnes of methane clathrates fossil carbon reserves. Methane clathrates occur mainly on the Arctic continental shelves where surface to mid water temperature is sufficiently cold, there is increased water pressure, and there exists enough organic carbon material (ie, coal, oil, natural gas leaks) to keep the methane-producing bacteria happy and in suspension for the last 50 million plus years, until now. Now, Arctic Region and global temperatures are rapidly rising and methane is being released.

Most importantly, methane clathrates can be explosively unstable if the temperature increases or the pressure decreases — which can happen as a function of warming temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides. A rapid large release of methane from Arctic methane clathrates is called the "methane clathrate gun effect."

These Arctic Region methane clathrates reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to atmospheric and water current temperature changes as represented by sea-ice changes. As the temperatures warm their result methane greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere. In the early period of natural methane release the powerful gas has a global warming potential (GWP) of greater than 100. Increased temperatures release methane into the atmosphere which in turn serves as a positive regenerative feedback loop that continues the increase of global and regional temperatures. The below study proved that methane concentration originate from sea water, not on land or from human sources.

"Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82° north"

Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo 1452

Received 10 November 2011, Accepted 21 March 2012, Published online 22 April 2012

Uncertainty in the future atmospheric burden of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, represents an important challenge to the development of realistic climate projections. The Arctic is home to large reservoirs of methane, in the form of permafrost soils and methane hydrates, which are vulnerable to destabilization in a warming climate. Furthermore, methane is produced in the surface ocean and the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean are supersaturated with respect to methane. However, the fate of this oceanic methane is uncertain. Here, we use airborne observations of methane to assess methane efflux from the remote Arctic Ocean, up to latitudes of 82° north. We report layers of increased methane concentrations near the surface ocean, with little or no enhancement in carbon monoxide levels, indicative of a non-combustion source. We further show that high methane concentrations are restricted to areas over open leads and regions with fractional sea-ice cover. Based on the observed gradients in methane concentration, we estimate that sea–air fluxes amount to around 2 mg d−1 m−2, comparable to emissions seen on the Siberian shelf. We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea-ice cover.

Fin

Over the last 30 years, methane has gone from being a gas of no importance, to — in some researchers eyes, at least — possibly the most important greenhouse gas for understanding global warming.

"Danger from the deep: New climate threat as methane rises from cracks in Arctic ice"

Scientists shocked to find greenhouse gas 70 times more potent than CO2 bubbling from deep ocean

STEVE CONNOR

The Independent    

MONDAY 23 APRIL 2012

A new source of methane – a greenhouse gas many times more powerful than carbon dioxide – has been identified by scientists flying over areas in the Arctic where the sea ice has melted.

The researchers found significant amounts of methane being released from the ocean into the atmosphere through cracks in the melting sea ice. They said the quantities could be large enough to affect the global climate. Previous observations have pointed to large methane plumes being released from the seabed in the relatively shallow sea off the northern coast of Siberia but the latest findings were made far away from land in the deep, open ocean where the surface is usually capped by ice.

Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, said that methane levels rise so dramatically each time the research aircraft flew over cracks in the sea ice.

"When we flew over completely solid sea ice, we didn't see anything in terms of methane. But when we flew over areas where the sea ice had melted, or where there were cracks in the ice, we saw the methane levels increase." "We were surprised to see these enhanced methane levels at these high latitudes. Our observations really point to the ocean surface as the source, which was not what we had expected."

"Other scientists had seen high concentrations of methane in the sea surface but nobody had expected to see it being released into the atmosphere in this way."

Methane is about 70 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat. However, because methane is broken down more quickly in the atmosphere, scientists calculate that it is 20 times more powerful over a 100-year cycle. The latest methane measurements were made from the American HIPPO research programme where a research aircraft loaded with scientific instruments flies for long distances at varying altitudes, measuring and recording gas levels at different heights.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, covered several flights into the Arctic at different times of the year. They covered an area about 950 miles north of the coast of Alaska and about 350 miles south of the North Pole. The levels of methane coming off this region were about the same as the quantities measured by other scientists monitoring methane levels above the shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

"We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea ice cover," the researchers write. "The association with sea ice makes this methane source likely to be sensitive to changing Arctic ice cover and dynamics, providing an unrecognised feedback process in the global atmosphere-climate system," they say.

Climate scientists are concerned that rising temperatures in the Arctic could trigger climate-feedbacks, where melting ice results in the release of methane which in turn results in a further increase in temperatures.

"We should be concerned because there's so many things in the Arctic where the warming feeds further warming. There are many things in the Arctic that do respond to warming," said Euan Nisbet, a methane expert at Royal Holloway University of London.

Fin

Under current accelerating rates of carbon and methane gases release, human life ends 2050-2055 CE. If Arctic Region methane clathrates carbon reserves become explosively unstable by temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides -- global warming temperature quickly rises and there are no more human races. Therefore, estimates for the continuation of human-life range from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years.  There are no political policies to alter the lifespan of human races.

The Global Warming Future

The future of global warming is grim. Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable response projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, increased rates of energy use, critical political decisions not made, increases in national high-energy GDPs, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, limited hydrologic energy development, water resources under developed, and too often proposed by untoward politicians and surrogates are impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics.

By 1866, resulting from the accumulations of a combination of natural and human greenhouse gases, global temperature increase produced a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends too soon past 2050 CE. All theories about the Modern Global Warming Era that are to the contrary to this presentation, and are not based upon acceptable supporting evidence, are falsehoods.

Note that transitions between fundamentally different regional and global climates can occur within only decades. Politicians most significantly increased global warming gases from the 1980s forward, when powerful world leaders assured that use of nuclear energy would be reduced and coal, oil, and natural gas energy economies would increase. Later, President Obama and left progressive Democrats' nuclear energy policy is to completely discontinue nuclear energy in favor of coal energy (with some natural gas increase). Left Democrats are active in retaining the U.S. economy dependent upon coal energy, imported OPEC oil energy, Chinese economic loans, and printing U.S. money. Within U.S. and Germany, nuclear energy was politically phased out while the 1992 CE alternatives to energy diversions were developed to enable politicians and their special interests to appear responsive to "climate change." Politicians talk the talk of climate change, but their political walk is to retain huge trillion dollar investments within multinational global warming hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas).

Global warming is on a political "business as usual" human hydrocarbon energy path and natural methane emissions path. For politicians global warming is a political game that is no more than a finding a way to keep their well paid jobs and win next elections. For human races, global warming is a life and death cause and effect response of the laws of physics.

Although politicians may have their way, Mother Nature has the last say. Politicians control national energies and human greenhouse gas emissions, but it is the laws of Mother Nature's physics that control global warming temperature increase. Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people post 2050 CE.

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE introduction of the Industrial Age, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE pre-industrial interglacial tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels was 280 ppm and methane peak level was 700 ppb. Current carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and are for methane ~1,850 ppb.

It took 260 years of Industrial Age greenhouse gas accumulations to get where we are. The global warming course is set; changes will be difficult, costly, and need to be timely; the longer the mitigation implementations are delayed the more difficult it becomes to change; the rate-of-change of global warming temperature increase is accelerating.

For more than 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear. By the 1970s U.S. hydroelectric energy development was phased out, promoting continued use of coal energy. Construction within public water right-of-ways prevented expansion of hydroelectric power. In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP), a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE, and economic employment patterns. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm limit and +2 C Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people. The U.S. produces 20 tons carbon per person. Therefore, the U.S. is either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races survival past 2050 CE .

The Arctic Sea is warming faster resulting from warmer freshwater flow, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice. Due to the Arctic Region positive warming feedback and methane hydrate-clathrate release, powerful global warming methane is becoming a more significant global warming force.   

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and a binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems, multinational political machines, and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance. Current "official" reporting reporting of global warming temperature increase leads to the destruction of the human races.   

A NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians economically locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also creating hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Curbing global warming involves preventing 2017 CE “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” In 2030-2040 CE, unless there are changes, the 450 ppm carbon limit and +2 C Limit is exceeded.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to help curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).   

Keep in mind that to prevent excessive global warming temperature increase involves global economies shifting from hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas) to nuclear energy or the more limited hydroelectric energy, which involves trillions of dollars in economic exchanges. For that reason, implementing trillions of dollars of proper responses to global warming are politically unpopular, which introduces decades more delay to political responses. After delayed global warming responses are installed, Earth may respond decades later. Meanwhile, Mother Nature's environment and laws of physics responds with total disregard of politicians' reelection worries. Mother Nature's global warming mostly responds to global warming gas levels, and time.

Acts against humanity's survival are authorities ignoring or dismissing necessary timely implementation of corrections to global warming temperature-increase. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall soon die post 2050 CE, ending the 160 thousand year 'journey of mankind.'  

We live in a dynamic and changing world. Sometimes truth is more exciting and stranger than fiction. No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to direct global warming changes. While politicians oppose information dissemination about global warming, very few scientist have access to valid global warming modeling with projections; there is no public access to valid global warming modeling. No nation has projected the cause and effects of global warming. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many more centuries of global warming temperature increase. As it now stands, global warming temperature increase is a no win political "business as usual" scenario for human races.  

There may be solutions to the global warming temperature increase, we just have to identify and timely implement those solutions.  

"We travel together, passengers on a little spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" -Adlai Stevenson (D), U.N. Ambassador, 1965      

Global Warming - The Very End

Without changes to human caused greenhouse gas emission there is certainty that all of humanity parishes 2050-2099 CE, most likely 2050-2055 CE.

It is both atmospheric carbon dioxide and powerful global warming methane projected gas levels that are the major global warming temperature-increase forces. Self-serving media and politicians have suppressed and undermined identification of the causes and terminal impact of modern global warming. The global warming situation is now critical. Although nuclear energy and hydrologic water energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase; the European-U.S. communist political leadership oppose expansion of that clean energy. For these major reasons, the media and U.S. self-serving politicians are to be called to task for crimes against humanity. The majority of the European-U.S. communist political movement supports continued use of hydrocarbon energy, it is therefore difficult to identify who has the the authority to judge and correct global warming wrong and evil.   

Crimes Against Humanity

The Arctic Region global warming gases were once noted in the 1990s by the scientific community of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, with the European-U.S. 1990s communist takeover of UN responses to global warming, international consideration of Arctic global warming has become politically restricted. UN, European, California U.S.A., and U.S. congressional global warming responses are now strictly controlled by European-U.S. political leadership. It is this coordinated leadership that refuses to acknowledge catastrophic global warming. By their lack of global warming responses, European-U.S. political leadership are committing crimes against humanity.

The neo communist movement continues to undermine consideration of nuclear energy construction. European-U.S. communist have turned global warming into a transfer of wealth priority and a social cause for alternative renewable green energy and carbon cap-and-trade. The political correctness of global warming is now established too favor $100s of billions of short-term political and special interest energy-corruption. Keep in mind political corruption and self interests are not only deeply involved alternative renewable green energy and carbon cap and trade, the corruption and crimes against humanity are also deeply engaged in retaining and expanding the multi-national multi-trillion dollar global hydrocarbon industries of coal, oil, and natural gas. Too many politicians have too little regard for human races continued life.      

Arctic Region Global Warming Gas

First, understand the Arctic Region release of methane is a ticking time bomb. The Arctic has enough latent global warming heating capacity to destroy within a year all of human life.  

It is the unique geophysical and massive human use of hydrocarbon energy since 1750 CE that results in a very extraordinary fast moving change of global warming events.

As the global and Arctic regional temperatures rise,  Arctic Region LAND permafrost releases large amounts of hydrocarbon gases and methane. The same hydrocarbon gases are released from Arctic Region OCEAN permafrost from huge methane hydrate (aka, methane clathrate) deposits.  

The clathrate gun hypothesis suggests that a mass release of methane from methane clathrates on the ocean floor may have triggered catastrophic global warming, in turn causing mass extinction, at least once in the Earth's ancient past. Methane clathrates are not found all over the ocean floor — only on the continental shelves. The shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and shallows of the Northwest Passages linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans contain huge (or massive) amounts of methane clathrate deposits. Release of Arctic methane can be relatively slow or can be a clathrate gun release; no matter which it is, Arctic methane does have a catastrophic global warming effect.    

Unlike carbon dioxide, portions of which which can remain in the atmosphere several 1,000s of years (with a global warming potential (GWP) of 1), methane persists in the air for 20-years with a GWP of 56, 100-years GWP 21, and 500-years GWP 6.5. Therefore, aggressively reining in Arctic methane emissions now would mean that far less of the gas would be warming Earth over 20-years, or in the flowing millenniums, caused by the continuous new Arctic Region methane gas venting. Arctic Ocean methane venting in some amounts could occur daily for millenniums.

Polar Region Northwest Passage and Baffin Bay contain vast shallow methane hydrate (aka, clathrate) deposits that remain unexplored. Venting of Polar Region methane is a hugely under identified global threat to human races existence. The shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and land temperatures responded with temperature increase and more carbon and methane release; a destructive positive regenerative gas release-temperature increase is established that accelerates the rate of regional (and global) temperature increase. Said differently, the Arctic positive regenerative feedback loop produces methane release, which increases regional temperature, more methane is released, more regional temperature is increased, more methane is released, etc. This type of positive feedback is a cascade failure mode for the more than 200 million years of "normal" geophysical Earth temperature regulation for glacial and interglacial periods.   


The only way to reduce the peril of an Arctic exceeding tripping points is to reduce global warming temperature increase.

This necessary reduction of global warming temperature rise is what the 1990s European-U.S. communist takeover of UN responses has omitted from 2000-to-present WITHIN official UN global warming reporting. Increasingly disturbing is the fact that under President Obama the government does not produce any meaningfully U.S. government global warming reports. The European-U.S. governments ability to effectively report upon global warming is in considerable doubt. There is ALSO a very disturbing ongoing profound U.S. political corruption of global warming data and falsified (or very misleading) government and private global warming reporting.

Catastrophic global warming events are suffering from coordinated benign neglect and political/media misdirection. The main media continues to be active in deceiving humanity as to the peril and catastrophic events of global warming leading up to sure 2050-2099 CE demise of human races.  

Arctic Region warming is an extremely important global event:  

"Teetering on an Arctic tipping point"

We are seeing the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. This is our warning that humanity is facing a dire future.

CLIMATE SPECTATOR

7 Feb 2012

The Arctic region is fast approaching a series of ‘tipping points’ that could trigger an abrupt domino effect of large-scale climate change across the entire planet. The region contains arguably the greatest concentration of potential tipping elements.

If set in motion, these can generate profound alterations which will place the Arctic not at the periphery, but at the core of the Earth system. There is evidence that these chain reactions have begun. This has major consequences not just for nature, but for the future of humankind as the changes progress.

Research shows that the Arctic is now warming at three times the global average. The loss of Arctic summer sea-ice forecast over the next four decades – if not before – is expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York. The loss of sea ice – which melted faster in summer than predicted – is linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe.

Arctic records show unambiguously that sea ice volume has declined dramatically over the past two decades. In the next 10 years, summer sea ice could be largely confined to north of coastal Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and is likely to disappear entirely by mid-century.

Some environmental and biological elements, including weakening of the oceanic biological carbon pump and the thermohaline circulation,melting of the Greenland ice cap, thawing of Arctic permafrost and methane hydrate deposit, the decline of forest and peat fires in the boreal region, may be linked in a domino effect of tipping points that cascade rapidly once this summer sea ice is lost.

Despite this danger, semantic confusion masquerading as scientific debate – although providing excellent media fodder – had delayed an urgent need to start managing the reality of dangerous climate change in the Arctic.

And of course there are those who benefit from a warmer Arctic. A drop in Arctic ice has opened new shipping routes, expanded oil, gas, and mineral exploitation, increased military and research use, and led to new harbours, houses, roads, airports, power stations and other support facilities.

It has triggered a new gold rush to access these resources, with recent struggles by China, Brazil and India to join the Arctic Council where the split of these resources is being discussed. Not everyone is in favour of reducing the impact of warming on Arctic ice.

But all of us need to take this melting seriously. Top predators such as polar bears are declining. More methane gas is entering the atmosphere as permafrost and submarine methane hydrates thaw. Freshwater discharge has increased 30 per cent in recent years. And the Arctic Sea is warming faster as the ice cap melts, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice.

In the subarctic region, die back of the boreal forest and desiccation of peat deposits is leading to uncontrolled peat fires (such as those that plagued Russia in the summer of 2010) increases with warmer weather. This burning will further enhance greenhouse gas emissions.

We expect the Arctic will switch from being a carbon dioxide sink to become instead a source of greenhouse gases if seawater temperatures rise 4-5°C.

The rate of Arctic climate change is now faster than ecosystems and traditional Arctic societies can adapt to. Tipping points do not have to be points of no return. Several tipping points, such as the loss of summer sea ice and melting of permafrost, may be reversible in principle – although hard in practice.

However, should these changes involve the extinction of species – such as polar bears, walruses, ice-dependent seals and more than 1000 species of ice algae – the changes could represent a point of no return.

The Arctic crisis is a test of our capacity as scientists, and as societies, to respond to abrupt climate change. We need to stop debating the existence of tipping points in the Arctic and start managing their dangerous reality.

Fin

Methane persists in the air for 20-years with a global warming potential that is 56 time greater than carbon. Over 100-years the global warming potential is 21 greater than carbon. There are to be releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in marine sediments (500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Arctic Regions permafrost (7.5 - 400 gigatons). The melt-rate of Arctic Region methane clathrates now is a increasingly major deciding factor for the rate of global warming temperature increase.     

End-Permian Mass Extinction  

The geologic model for today's global warming is End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma (million years ago).

At the end of the Permian period, life on Earth was almost completely wiped out by an environmental catastrophe of a magnitude never seen before (until the Modern Global Warming Era). All over the world complex ecosystems were destroyed. Only 5 per cent of species survived the catastrophe, and for the next 500,000 years life itself teetered on the brink of oblivion. Massive volcanic eruptions, sustained over half-a-million years or more, caused catastrophic environmental deterioration - poison gas, global warming, stripping of soils and plants from the landscape, eruption of gases from their frozen locations deep in the oceans, and mass deoxygenation. The Siberian Traps were not formed by explosive eruptions from classic cone-shaped volcanoes. More commonly, the basalt erupted through fissures, long cracks in the ground, as occurs within Iceland today. The volcanoes were accompanied by prodigious outpourings of gases, mostly carbon dioxide. The effect of these gases was devastating. It took 20 or 30 million years for coral reefs to correct for acidification, and for the forests to regrow. In some settings, it took 50 million years or more for full ecosystem complexity to recover. Geologists and palaeontologists are only just beginning to get to grips with this most profound recording of the End-Permian geophysical crises.  

Carbon dioxide geologically cycles in and out of oceans over time (ie, carbon cycle). A scientific team has found for only one period in the last 180 million years when the oceans changed even remotely as fast as today: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 53.6 Ma. It is suspected that PETM global warming occurred when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents; huge amounts of carbon were released into the atmosphere and oceans in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. Most ocean sediments older than 180 million years have been recycled back into the deep earth, scientists have fewer older records to work with prior to 180 million years ago. Because of ocean sediment recycle, End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma (million years ago) period needs additional paleoclimate analysis. The effects of ocean acidification today are overshadowed for now by other problems, ranging from sewage pollution and hotter summer temperatures that threaten corals with disease and bleaching. It may take until 2030-2050 CE before ocean acidification's effect on marine life increasingly shows itself.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages at 1750 CE is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian Period. Now there are more than 9 billion people involved with the global temperature increase.  

End-Permian Mass Extinction of 252.28 Ma is an interesting factor. However, if humans no longer exists past 2099 CE, what happens latter within the Modern Global Warming Era is of little interest.

Modern Global Warming Era  

The simplest and most plausible explanation for the Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated mimic of End-Permian Mass Extinction that involves 9-billion people.  

Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives post 1750 CE human (anthropogenic) energy consumption and resulting carbon dioxide level increase.

Current human life support systems now absorb 42 percent of the planet’s entire terrestrial net primary productivity. We have transformed 50 percent of all land. We have changed the chemical composition of the whole biosphere and all the world’s seas, bringing on global warming and ocean acidification. Most importantly, we raised the extinction rate from a natural level of one extinction per million species per year up to 30,000 per year; three per hour, with a build up to the current population of 6.8 billion people. Expected before 2050 CE are more than 9 billion people. Expected by 2017 CE humans exceed the global carbon budget with hydrocarbon infrastructure-lock-in. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends 2050-2099 CE. All theories about global warming that are to the contrary to this presentation do not have acceptable supporting evidence.

Since 1750 CE, humans have produced an accumulation of a prodigious outpourings of global powerful warming gases, mostly carbon dioxide. Resulting from increased human carbon dioxide emissions, there are Arctic Region methane gas released from huge stores of methane hydrate (aka, methane clathrate).

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.

Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people, 2050-2099 CE. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE of global warming, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.   

The Modern Global Warming Path is Clear

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems and multinational political machines and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance.   

Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE of global warming, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.

In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) and a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm goal/+2 oC Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people, much less than the U.S. 20 tons figure. Therefore, we are either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races 2050-2099 CE survival.

International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a global physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. National leaders are now “locking-in the global carbon budget.”  

Energy Safety

Nuclear Safety - Since the THREE MILE ISLAND 28 March 1979 incident, the political U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have withheld new nuclear design and construction permits. U.S. politicians (through their NRC political members) claimed "nuclear safety" as justification not to permit new nuclear facilities for more than 30-years. The 30-years of U.S. congressional energy activity was designed not to expand clean nuclear energy but to expand special interest global coal, oil, and gas industries. All "safety" claims against current nuclear technology are political lies.    

While nuclear power plants are designed to be safe in their operation and safe in the event of any malfunction or accident, no industrial activity can be represented as entirely risk-free. Incidents and accidents may happen, and as in other industries, will lead to progressive improvement in safety. The three significant accidents in the 50-year history of civil nuclear power generation are:

⇨ Three Mile Island (USA 1979) where the reactor was severely damaged but radiation was contained and there were no adverse health or environmental consequences. Failures in the non-nuclear secondary system, followed by a stuck-open pilot-operated relief valve (PORV) in the primary system allowed large amounts of nuclear reactor coolant to escape.

⇨ Chernobyl (Ukraine 1986) where the destruction of the reactor by steam explosion and fire killed 31 people and had significant health and environmental consequences. The death toll has since increased to about five.   

⇨ Fukushima (Japan 2011) where three older reactors (together with a fourth) were written off as the effects of loss of cooling due to a huge tsunami were inadequately contained.

To achieve optimum safety, nuclear plants in the western world operate using a 'defence-in-depth' approach, with multiple safety systems supplementing the natural features of the reactor core. These can be summed up as: Prevention, Monitoring, and Action (to mitigate consequences of failures). Key aspects of the approach are:

⇨ high-quality design & construction,

⇨ equipment which prevents operational disturbances or human failures and errors developing into problems,

⇨ comprehensive monitoring and regular testing to detect equipment or operator failures,

⇨ redundant and diverse systems to control damage to the fuel and prevent significant radioactive releases,

⇨ provision to confine the effects of severe fuel damage (or any other problem) to the plant itself.

Globally, there are clocked about 14,000 reactor years for nuclear plant for nuclear plant operations.

Coal Safety - Total global brown coal/lignite production in 2010 est is 1042 million tonnes, down from 1184 million tonnes in 1990 CE. In 2010, world hard coal production increased by 6.8%, compared to 1.8% in 2009. It continued to be driven by growth in production from the non-OECD countries with 8.4% growth.

In the 1950s the annual death toll in world coal mines was 70,000. A World Bank study finds that the health costs of air and water pollution in China amount to about 4.3 percent of its GDP. Within China, coal is the primary source of electrical energy.

Coal mining deaths range from 0.009 per million tonnes of coal mined in Australia through 0.034 in U.S. to more than 1 per million tonnes in China and in Ukraine.

China's total death toll from coal mining to 2008 averaged well over 4000 per year - official figures give 5300 in 2000 CE, 5670 in 2001 CE and 6995 in 2003 CE, 6027 in 2004 CE, about 6000 in 2005 CE, 4746 in 2006 CE, 3786 in 2007 CE, 3210 in 2008 CE and 2631 in 2009 CE.  This data omits small Chinese illegal collieries. A report by the World Bank in cooperation with the Chinese government found that about 750,000 people die prematurely in China each year from air pollution.  

From 1880 to 1910, U.S. mine explosions and other accidents claimed thousands of victims. The deadliest year in U.S. coal mining history was 1907, when 3,242 deaths occurred. That year, America's worst mine explosion ever killed 358 people near Monongah, WV. The rate of coal mining deaths decreased from about .20 fatalities per 200,000 hours worked by miners (or one death per million production hours) in 1970 to about .07 fatalities in 1977 and an average of .03 fatalities for the 2001-2005 period. U.S. average mining fatalities and injuries in 2006-2007 was 69 and average annual injuries was 11,800.

In Australia (claimed to have the safest mines in the world) 281 coal miners have been killed in 18 major disasters since 1902, and there have been 112 deaths in NSW mines since 1979.  

Anti-Nuclear False Political Safety Claims - For 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear and hydroelectric energy to promote continued use of coal energy. The political claim against nuclear energy was/is that nuclear is not "safe." Politicians and NRC members increased the cost of nuclear facilities by staggering amounts with many political justifications claiming “safety.” Resulting from the 1970s politics, U.S. nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from a reactor estimated at 1980 CE $660 million ballooned to 2010 CE $8.87 billion. The political purpose of increasing nuclear energy costs for "safety" reasons was/is to render nuclear energy non-economically competitive to coal, oil, and natural gas. The U.S. Congress appears to has no interest in saving human races from global warming temperature increase.

Germany, claimed nuclear "safety" reasons to justify its 2011 closure of seven reactors and legislatively ban by 2022 CE all nuclear reactor energy. The European-U.S. anti-nuclear drive was boosted by Germany's Green party, which took control in late March 2011 of the Christian Democrat stronghold of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Germany politicians, like U.S. politicians, shut down the nuclear industry to favor expanding established hydrocarbon based economies.    

President Obama, his administration, and U.S. Senate have compounded global warming problems with their continued political anti-nuclear policies. European-U.S. neo communism will destroy human races in order to retain control over national hydrocarbon economies.

The axis of evil is politically correct responses to global warming while the same untoward politicians undermine honest efforts to correct a situation that leads to the destruction of human races.   

Pending Global Warming Events  

Humans are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.  

Global temperatures are on a path to rise by an average to an unlivable 6 oC by the end of the century. Carbon dioxide emissions have risen by 29% in the past decade alone.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and decline thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase events occurs:
 

  +2.0°C: Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020 CE, in 2030-2040 CE Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature. Atmospheric carbon dioxide content exceeds 450 ppm.  

 Groundwater - There has been very little research on the impact of global warming on groundwater, including the question of how climate change will affect the relationship between surface waters and aquifers that are hydraulically connected. Postulated is wipe out of agriculture and cattle ranching occurs as sand dunes and dust bowls appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north. Major to massive dust storms sweep the U.S. Midwest. Saltwater inundation of coastal groundwater stores will expand. Groundwater/aquifer pollution such as saltwater encroachment associated with over drafting of aquifers or natural leaching from natural occurring deposits are natural sources of pollution.

 Rising sea levels - Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas. In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages. Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics. Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction. In the 20th century, sea level rise has been accelerating and over the last decades.  Remedial global warming action has become ineffectual to prevent catastrophic temperature increase.

  Rain forest turns to desert - The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke. Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming. The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away. Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa.

  +4.0°C to +4.4°C: Post 2050-2055 CE, scientists warn only one-tenth of the world’s people might survive to 2099 CE. Students now enrolled in schools and universities face this future.

   WATER - Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic Region (like Siberia) sea and land permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) producing a temperature rise. Melting ice caps and sea level rises have displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece. More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia. Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes result in the Amazon drying up. With temperature increase, more moisture is present in the air, more surface water evaporation, and more aquifer over drafting occurs. There is a resulting large transfer of potable aquifer water (and surface water) to oceans and atmosphere.

  ECOSYSTEMS – There are major extinctions around the globe. Coral mortality is spreading due to ocean acidification and surface/mid-depth ocean warming. Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as ~40% of ecosystems affected.  

  FOOD - All production of cereals decrease. There is increased ocean acidification, increased water hypoxia, and a devastating decreases in fish biomass. Food chain disruptions occur.

  COAST – There is increased damage from floods and storms, with about 30% loss of coastal wetlands. Additional 2 to 15 million people are at risk of coastal flooding each year. There is increased loss of groundwater storage capacity from saltwater inundation into coastal aquifers. “500-year floods” and storm surges occur once every 25 to 240 years while "100-year" flood/storm surge events occur every 3-20 years.  

  HEALTH – There are increased health burdens from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts.  Substantial increased burden on health services.

  ECONOMIC INVESTMENTS - Investment in the world economy is like being a frog in a pot of slowly heated water. The point at which the frog dies is understood. The question is how much will the the investment advisers and media keep turning up the heat under uninformed investors.

  SOCIAL STABILITY – Society’s social structure will increasingly breakdown as life support systems break down under the demands of increased population, increased climate change, increased regional temperatures, decreased food supplies, and increased life support distribution issues.  

  SINGLE EVENTS - Long-term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss, leading to reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and inundation of low-lying areas. It is to be noted that the (<10%) likelihood in the 21st century Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) shutdown may still be significant given the high consequences of an abrupt shutdown. MOC shutdown includes adverse effects on food production and terrestrial vegetation, changes in fisheries and effects on oceanic carbon dioxide uptake and oceanic oxygen concentrations, an increased warming of southern hemisphere high latitudes and tropical drying.  Weather change patterns are also associated with MOC and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) activity.

  +5.4°C: This global temperature increase is reached prior to 2099 1.1-meter (3.6 feet) rise of sea level by 2099. Only a very small fraction of the 9-10 billion population could continue to exist at the Polar Regions.     

  +6.0°C: Long-term effects on global warming “climate change” are largely "irreversible" for more than millions of years. Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Human races have been extinguished. Before this point no one is around to care about what happens next.  

Human "Adaptive" Planning - No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to respond global warming changes. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many centuries of global warming temperature increase.  

In order of importance U.S. response to global warming results from: increased left European-U.S. communist activity, the calcified U.S. left Democrat Senate, President Obama leadership (or lack thereof), a calculating self-serving oblivious media, U.S. political action committees (PACs), paid internet hackers, "progressive grassroots" supporters of current administrations, and established hydrocarbon industries protecting their own interests. The media handling of global warming is terrible and without regard to the harm caused by benign neglect of proper identification of causes and effects of global warming. U.S. global warming misinformation is sourced from The White House, radical neo communist political appointees, and political Czars, causing non-responsiveness of U.S Senate and government agencies now under neo communist directions. It is evil media and evil politicians who are destroying human races.   

Continuing current human and natural greenhouse gas emissions, the atmospheric carbon level exceeds 450 ppm at 2030-2040 CE. There is no "official" planning or organization in place that is authorized to require global warming corrections. Politicians have until 2017 CE to prevent exceeding the global carbon budget with hydrocarbon infrastructure-lock-in.  

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).