The Global Warming Future

The future of global warming is grim. Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable response projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, increased rates of energy use, critical political decisions not made, increases in national high-energy GDPs, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, limited hydrologic energy development, water resources under developed, and too often proposed by untoward politicians and surrogates are impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics.

By 1866, resulting from the accumulations of a combination of natural and human greenhouse gases, global temperature increase produced a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends too soon past 2050 CE. All theories about the Modern Global Warming Era that are to the contrary to this presentation, and are not based upon acceptable supporting evidence, are falsehoods.

Note that transitions between fundamentally different regional and global climates can occur within only decades. Politicians most significantly increased global warming gases from the 1980s forward, when powerful world leaders assured that use of nuclear energy would be reduced and coal, oil, and natural gas energy economies would increase. Later, President Obama and left progressive Democrats' nuclear energy policy is to completely discontinue nuclear energy in favor of coal energy (with some natural gas increase). Left Democrats are active in retaining the U.S. economy dependent upon coal energy, imported OPEC oil energy, Chinese economic loans, and printing U.S. money. Within U.S. and Germany, nuclear energy was politically phased out while the 1992 CE alternatives to energy diversions were developed to enable politicians and their special interests to appear responsive to "climate change." Politicians talk the talk of climate change, but their political walk is to retain huge trillion dollar investments within multinational global warming hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas).

Global warming is on a political "business as usual" human hydrocarbon energy path and natural methane emissions path. For politicians global warming is a political game that is no more than a finding a way to keep their well paid jobs and win next elections. For human races, global warming is a life and death cause and effect response of the laws of physics.

Although politicians may have their way, Mother Nature has the last say. Politicians control national energies and human greenhouse gas emissions, but it is the laws of Mother Nature's physics that control global warming temperature increase. Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people post 2050 CE.

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE introduction of the Industrial Age, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE pre-industrial interglacial tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels was 280 ppm and methane peak level was 700 ppb. Current carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and are for methane ~1,850 ppb.

It took 260 years of Industrial Age greenhouse gas accumulations to get where we are. The global warming course is set; changes will be difficult, costly, and need to be timely; the longer the mitigation implementations are delayed the more difficult it becomes to change; the rate-of-change of global warming temperature increase is accelerating.

For more than 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear. By the 1970s U.S. hydroelectric energy development was phased out, promoting continued use of coal energy. Construction within public water right-of-ways prevented expansion of hydroelectric power. In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP), a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE, and economic employment patterns. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm limit and +2 C Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people. The U.S. produces 20 tons carbon per person. Therefore, the U.S. is either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races survival past 2050 CE .

The Arctic Sea is warming faster resulting from warmer freshwater flow, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice. Due to the Arctic Region positive warming feedback and methane hydrate-clathrate release, powerful global warming methane is becoming a more significant global warming force.   

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and a binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems, multinational political machines, and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance. Current "official" reporting reporting of global warming temperature increase leads to the destruction of the human races.   

A NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians economically locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also creating hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Curbing global warming involves preventing 2017 CE “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” In 2030-2040 CE, unless there are changes, the 450 ppm carbon limit and +2 C Limit is exceeded.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to help curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).   

Keep in mind that to prevent excessive global warming temperature increase involves global economies shifting from hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas) to nuclear energy or the more limited hydroelectric energy, which involves trillions of dollars in economic exchanges. For that reason, implementing trillions of dollars of proper responses to global warming are politically unpopular, which introduces decades more delay to political responses. After delayed global warming responses are installed, Earth may respond decades later. Meanwhile, Mother Nature's environment and laws of physics responds with total disregard of politicians' reelection worries. Mother Nature's global warming mostly responds to global warming gas levels, and time.

Acts against humanity's survival are authorities ignoring or dismissing necessary timely implementation of corrections to global warming temperature-increase. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall soon die post 2050 CE, ending the 160 thousand year 'journey of mankind.'  

We live in a dynamic and changing world. Sometimes truth is more exciting and stranger than fiction. No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to direct global warming changes. While politicians oppose information dissemination about global warming, very few scientist have access to valid global warming modeling with projections; there is no public access to valid global warming modeling. No nation has projected the cause and effects of global warming. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many more centuries of global warming temperature increase. As it now stands, global warming temperature increase is a no win political "business as usual" scenario for human races.  

There may be solutions to the global warming temperature increase, we just have to identify and timely implement those solutions.  

"We travel together, passengers on a little spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" -Adlai Stevenson (D), U.N. Ambassador, 1965      

Global Warming - Financial Investment to 2050

Rev 16 Jan 2012


How do financial institutions invest when it is known that human races are to end 2050-2099 Cristian Era (CE)?

Since European and U.S. world leaders and neo communist politicians are determined to retain national dependence upon hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas), while ignoring the obvious ending of human races, the wisdom of any long-term investment is in considerable doubt. Over time, political global warming responses are unpredictable. There is no capable world leadership representing the need of continuing human races.  U.S. politicians and news media are locked into the 2012 CE election campaign. Since the 1990s CE, UN responses to global warming were undermined by the corruption of carbon reduction sounding schemes . There is no economic precedence for end human races institutional investments.

Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall soon exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political changes, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099 CE.  Global warming is the world’s greatest growing security threat.

The science of global warming is clear. Global warming greenhouse gas human hydrocarbon emissions since preindustrial 1750s (or since the 1712 Newcomen engine) have increased and accumulated.  In turn, these human hydrocarbons have resulted in increased global temperature (about 0.8 oC) and Arctic subsea permafrost destabilization.  Huge Arctic methane clathrate deposits have increased release of natural methane, which is accelerating the global warming process.  Prior to 2099 CE, even without increased natural methane emissions, human hydrocarbon emissions are projected to exceed life terminating +5 oC temperature increase.  The only thing that is certain about current financial institution investments is that the human races terminate 2050-2099 CE.                

Centres of political and financial gravity for current financial investments should guide strategic investments. Due to global warming, over time these gravity centers will fail individually or in combination until the end is complete:

- Increased negative consequences of regulation (economic)

- Major systemic financial failure (economic)

- Natural and Human Greenhouse gas emissions (environmental) increase temperature

- Global governance failure (geopolitical)

- Water supply and food resources crisis are eminent (environmental)

- Unsustainable population growth (societal) outstrip redistribution of Earth’s resources

- Critical systems failure (technological)

- Persistent extreme weather (environment)

- Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture pricing (economic)

- Increased post 2017 CE costs to reduce global warming temperature increase (economic)  

Since the 1990s CE, alternative renewable energy has been promoted as a political scheme for corruption.  None of the US$100s billions spent on renewable energy projects have REDUCED any amount of global temperature increase. Real responses to global warming have been delayed for decades. The only energy source that has the capability to save human races is nuclear energy.  However, nuclear energy has been renounced by European and U.S. neo communists and too many world leaders. In place of nuclear energy there is carbon-cap-and-trade.  

Carbon markets are part of multinational political corruption and siphoning off funding directed to environmentally friendly sounding projects. Carbon markets across the world were valued at 96 billion euros (US$122.63 billion) last year, up 4 percent on 2010. The value of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the world's biggest carbon market, grew by 6 percent to an estimated 76 billion euros (US$97.08 billion).  Overall traded volume in so-called EU Allowances (EUAs), including options and auctions, reached around 6 billion euros (US$7.66 billion) last year, a 17-percent increase on 2010. The EU carbon market is also the biggest buyer of carbon credits issued under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which awards rich country investments in emissions-reduction claimed projects in the developing world. U.N.-issued Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) at 17.8 billion euros (US$ 22.74 billions) in 2011. The Kyoto Protocol's Joint Implementation market, which issues carbon credits to emissions-reduction projects in developed countries, saw its value grow by 40 percent to 716 million euros (US$ 914.62 million). The North American carbon market's value also declined, falling to 221 million euros (US$ 282.31 million) in 2011. The carbon markets’ shuffle of carbon credits results in huge politically connected special interest profits.  Carbon markets are the “smoking gun” of government sponsored global warming corruption.  Although the markets are huge, none of the carbon trading has resulted in any REDUCTION of global warming temperature increase.

Left Democrats “stimulated” the U.S. economy with an expensive ‘American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’ (ARRA 2009) that included over $90 billion in unproductive “climate change” alternative renewable energy investments.  However, all Congresses have funded nothing that would reduce global warming TEMPERATURE INCREASE.  Additionally in 2009 CE, although compete the Yucca Mountain project that is necessary for the U.S. clean nuclear fuel cycle was stopped by congressional left Democrat neo communists. It appears that most of ARRA stimulus funding was arranged to feed government funds to left Democrat supporters and voter districts with very little stimulus of U.S. capitalism or reduction of global warming. Congress has ignored global warming to provide for political special interests, which supports a charge of congressional gross political negligence.

The President of the United Sates must task the U.S. Secretary of Defense to provide timely global warming solutions within 2012 CE.

World leaders continue to build hydrocarbon energy plants that results in 2017 CE “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget.” Unless there is quick identification of the emerging and future global warming threat, there is now certainty that human races survival ends 2050-2099 CE.  But there is no certainty that the global warming threat is to be soon identified with recommendations. It has been suggested that the U.S. Department of Defence identify and make global warming response recommendations.  However, this is a U.S. election year and little interest in global warming demonstrated by President Obama, or the U.S. Congress, or the media.  Perhaps in 2013 CE or later there might be some political guidance for financial institution investments in 2050-2099 CE end human life.   

After decades of dismantling nuclear energy and increasing nuclear facility costs, the time to complete significant nuclear global nuclear output-increase would exceed 10 years, which is beyond the hydrocarbon energy plants 2017 CE  “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget.” Institutional investment in nuclear energy continues to be a risky political investment, which increases certainty of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in.
 
However, hydrocarbon investments due remain supported by many world leaders and politicians.  Investment futures within hydrocarbon energy facilities are supported with favorable regulations and a large union labor force. The investment draw back of hydrocarbon industry is that hydrocarbon investments increase global warming emissions with resultant pulling-in of human life termination-point.  With everyone dead sooner, investors in the hydrocarbon industry receive lower returns on investment.                  

When coal emissions (as it is burned 2000 CE) are considered to be 100, greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear, would be 4. Wind and hydro would also be 4-emissions. Solar is 8 and natural gas is 10-emissions. However, wind, solar, and hydro energy are significantly limited energy sources.  There are substantial releases of carbon dioxide and methane emitted during coal, oil, and natural gas production, distribution, and use. Note that methane's 20-year global warming potential is an interaction with carbon monoxide, oxidants, sulphates aerosols molecules and other chemical actions.  Dependent upon chemical composition of the atmosphere, GWP of methane is 53 to 75 and can be as high as 120 times greater than carbon dioxide (which has a GWP equal one). Methane from natural sources, coal, oil, and natural gas are significant contributors to end human races global warming. All human uses of hydrocarbon coal, oil, natural gas result in increased global warming temperature.    

"We should use nuclear power to reduce global warming"

Letter to Ed SunHerald.com

Friday, Jan. 13, 2012

Congress should move immediately to reduce or eliminate the combustion of all fossil fuels and facilitate procedures to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants to reduce global warming.

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of earth’s atmosphere and oceans which is predicted to increase coastal flooding. In the last 100 years, earth’s average surface temperature increased by about 0.8° C (1.4° F).

Studies show that greenhouse gases (and carbon dioxide in particular) are at the top of the list of the energy sector’s environmental impacts, and the source of human-made climate change. The largest source of greenhouse gases is the coal-burning power generation industry. To address the global warming problem, it is clearly necessary to stop burning coal to generate electric power and convert to a process with less carbon dioxide emissions.

A study published in 2000 by the International Energy Agency compared emissions per kilowatt-hour for each of the major sources of energy. If coal emissions (as it is burned 2000) are considered to be 100, emissions from nuclear, wind and hydro would be 4, solar 8 and natural gas 10.  

When considering installing power generating facilities, the “footprint” or actual space or land required must be considered. For example, a 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant or coal burning plant takes up about a third of a square mile, a solar panel array over 50 square miles, and a 1,000-megawatt wind farm requires over 200 square miles.

Another factor to be considered is the amount of waste material produced by each type of power generation. A 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant converts 20 tons of fuel a year into 20 tons of waste. The same size coal plant burns 3 million tons of fuel a year and produces 7 million tons of carbon dioxide, which goes into the earth’s atmosphere.

By RICHARD WALDSMITH

Bay St. Louis

There is not much guidance for financial institution’s global warming investment. Global financial institutions and markets will just have hold back on investments until politicians decide upon the date and regulations for human life termination.