If humans want to regulate Earth’s temperature, it is necessary for humans to control ocean temperatures in order to regulate methane clathrates release of methane.
In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting. “Businesses as usual” lost out to promoting “renewable” energy politics and the politics of not reporting greenhouse gas methane.
Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas, methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization. Methane (CH4) (about 85% of natural gas) is 105 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period and taking aerosol impacts into account.
Why Global Warming is a Catastrophic Crisis for Human Races
Carbon dioxide global warming potential (GWP) is exactly one unit (since it is the baseline unit for all other greenhouse gases). In 2007, methane’s official GWP is 53 to 75 over 20 years (or GWP 105 taking all into consideration). Example, if there is one tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) and one tonne of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere, the tonne of methane over the next 20 years heats Earth 75 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.
Whereas both carbon dioxide and methane has historically regulated Earth’s temperature, post 1750 industrial age, atmospheric METHANE now dominates global warming temperature increase.
Based upon known historical geological events, geophysicists early noted the possibility of a sudden release of methane if Arctic ice were to disappear, as is now the case. Release of even a small percentage of total ocean methane deposits could have a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere temperature rise. The warming ocean currents and subsequent breakdown of methane clathrate (aka, methane hydrate) release of global warming gas methane is a developing catastrophic event. The release of Polar Region methane is dependent upon ocean current temperatures.
To control Earth’s methane atmospheric level and the global warming temperature increase it is necessary for humans to control methane clathrates release of methane by controlling ocean temperatures.
GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE STATEMENT
Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years.
Kyoto Protocol Response Identification - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon dioxide emissions.
Global Warming Response Identification - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE
When do we hit the point of no return for climate change? Around 2017 CE
Based on everything we know about climate science, the basic game plan is that if we want to limit global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (so as not to risk the most dangerous and unpredictable impacts), we will need to prevent the amount of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere from rising above roughly 450 parts per million (ppm). Currently, we are at about 392 ppm. However, no one geophysical measurement defines reaching the 2oC temperature increase. There are several factors at cause of global warming temperature increase: mix of several greenhouse gases, water vapor, albedo, ozone, aerosol cooling, atmospheric chemical reactions, and natural cycles are among the causes of Earth’s temperature regulation.
Defining a target figure for reduction of global warming is not straightforward. The loss of aerosol cooling from emissions reductions means we likely need huge cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to avoid 2 oC temperature increase with greater than 90% probability. Huge means something like a 50% reduction within 20-years and 90% reductions within 50-years. If you combine that with converge and contract for equity reasons (i.e., greenhouse emissions accounting standards for contracts), Europe needs 80% emission cuts by 2020, the US 90% emission cuts by 2020 and both need 95%-plus emission reductions by 2050. Greenhouse gas reductions for developing nations also need inclusion. These are fantasist reductions and require fantastic energy use changes. Work that is a great deal more technical is necessary to identify adequately global warming global goals and procedures.
According to the Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report, the key issue to curbing global warming is something known as a “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants in countries like China and India that are being rapidly constructed right now are going to last another 50 years-plus, at least. Energy-inefficient buildings we are erecting will stay up for some time. There is a large time lag to rebuild energy infrastructure while Earth’s temperature responses have time lags. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 200-year-old carbon tap of coal, oil, natural gas, and methane. As the IEA found, we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructure to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — maybe impossible — to avoid 450 ppm carbon dioxide. The point of no return comes around 2017.
What happens when we lock ourselves in? We could still avoid exceeding 2oC or more of warming, because above 2oC warming mitigation becomes much, much more costly and difficult. It is far more expensive to shut down a shiny new coal plant than it is to have never built one to begin with. It is more arduous to retrofit a bunch of homes and buildings after the fact than it would have been to set rigorous efficiency codes beforehand.
As per the IEA agency calculations, four-fifths of the total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions permitted to 2035 in the 450 ppm carbon dioxide Scenario (450 Scenario) have already been locked-in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories. The world’s existing infrastructure is already producing 80 percent of that “carbon budget” — producing around 390 ppm. And without any real action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the carbon dioxide emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035, leaving no room for maneuver at all. IEA WEO 2011 report does not consider the "methane clathrate gun effect."
As the IEA report notes, “Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.” Right now, hitting that 450-ppm [CO2eq] target will require a clean-energy investment of about 1.1 percent of GDP per year, says the IEA (that is not a pure “cost,” since there are many efficiency savings). However, the longer we delay, the more expensive it gets. Delays can quadruple the cost.
Granted, if Europe vaporizes in the next few months and the global economy plunges into yet another depression, this could temporarily alter the rate of global warming change. Energy use will drop, emissions will sag, and we will get a little more space to act. Maybe the point of no return moves out to 2020 or 2022. However, as we saw after the last downturn, the world does not tend to take advantage of these reprieves. When the economy is bad, few countries want to bother with installing energy technologies or figuring out how to curb oil use, and when things recover, the world roars back closer and closer to the 2oC warming mark.
Despite the talk and political stress all around the world for low carbon economy, carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 jumped by 5.3 percent to a record 30.4 gigatons, which is “almost unprecedented annual growth rate.” Global demand for energy is set to increase 40 percent by 2035, the Paris-based IEA agency said in its annual WEO 2011 report. Consumption will rise 1.3 percent a year to 16.96 billion metric tons of oil equivalent in 2035, spurred by China and other emerging economies.
Investment in clean energy infrastructure of $1.5 trillion a year will meet projected demand through 2035, and even then, the cost of energy will increase. To retain their carbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas), U.S. and German politicians have made a costly shutdown of their nation's nuclear energy sector. It appears that German and U.S. politicians remain unresponsive to saving the human races from global warming destruction.
The political and physical choices of global warming are clear!
Now (PRIOR TO NOVEMBER 2012) shift global economies either to greenhouse gas emission-free nuclear power and hydroelectric power, or this century face extermination of human life. Reductions of human and natural methane/carbon dioxide emissions may depend upon limiting coal, oil, and natural gas electrical plants to 20-years, not current 50-year-plus life projections. Effective replacement for human carbon energy sources is almost exclusively limited to increasing nuclear energy and hydrologic energy. The sooner a global warming temperature reduction plan is in place and acted upon globally, the greater the probability that human races survive past 2099.
Considering all global warming causes, the point of no return is around 2017 Christian Era (CE) to peak carbon dioxide is at 450-ppm carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2eq] of human and natural greenhouse gases. Unless there is soon stopping the trigger of the methane clathrate gun, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099 CE. Until global politicians very-soon accept the fact that global warming is their responsibility, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099 CE.
Delaying global warming temperature increase response are recalcitrant politicians and a lack of identified reliable public source of dependable global warming information. Up until now the only “official” source global warming information has been the UNFCCC and UN IPCC reporting. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reporting has not changed since 1990s dropping methane reporting and adopting IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001).
Political Delays of Global Warming Response
To minimize the political importance of “climate change” and maximize funding of renewable energy while promoting transfer of wealth though carbon trades, increase government corruption and purchase special interest support, and the funding of Copenhagen 2009 COP15 wealth transfers - “climate change” became “lets build lots of renewable energy” that does not work.
IPCC First Assessment Report (1990) and Second Assessment Report (SAR 1995) reported methane activity. Later, as a cover and diversion to not properly representing the roll of global warming greenhouse gases, leading world leaders published a new set of political scenarios in 2000 reports. IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001) and IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007) hardly mention the powerful global warming methane gas. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios became global warming mitigation foundations within the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001) and within the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007).
IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, which is to be released) "will put greater emphasis on assessing the socio-economic aspects [i.e., SRES] of climate change and implications for sustainable development, risk management and the framing of a response through both adaptation and mitigation."
There is no IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of the role of methane within global temperature cycle. There is no IPCC AR5 mention of reducing global warming temperatures. The intended purpose of IPCC’s AR3, AR4, and AR5 covertly continues world leaders’ carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.
The IPCC’s shift from global warming science to the political diversion of SRES social issues occurred during the 1990s with the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol (adopted 11 December 1997). U.S. President Clinton’s administration suppressed the world’s efforts to reduce global warming temperature increase. During the same 1990s, methane dropped from global warming consideration. The result is that the methane clathrate gun effect is rapidly accelerating due to human carbon dioxide emissions and natural methane emissions. Unless there is soon stopping the trigger of the methane clathrate gun, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099.
The 20-years and failed seventeen talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind. Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate. Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade. In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory. Emissions are to plateau by 2020 and rapidly reduce thereafter or the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach.
Coincident with the 1990s development of the Kyoto Protocol (ie, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed at the Conference of Parties III (COP3), 1997, Kyoto Japan); there is a major redirection of IPCC reporting the global warming event. Within the 1990s, IPCC reporting-shift started promoting the unmonitored “renewable alternative energy” sector and carbon-cap-and-trade. “Business as usual” is a standard scenario evaluation technique that (in the case of global warming) identifies “no response” to reduction of global warming greenhouse gases and no response to curbing global temperature increase. Within all forms of major social-planning “business as usual” scenario forms is from which other case studies are developed. Business as usual is a scenario first established to provide planning baseline comparisons. To avoid change, world leaders shifted reporting business as usual carbon economies to IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Business as usual scenario was not in IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001), and in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007). World leaders went about “business as usual” by doing nothing about global warming temperature increase. When it comes to completing important changes, world leaders suffer from Greek King Sisyphus syndrome. In the UK, Europe, and the US, there are multiple plans for new fossil-fueled power stations that would contribute significantly to global emissions over the coming decades. To the world leaders, it is still “business as usual.” The 1990s to date world leaders removing IPCC business as usual scenarios, and removing methane clathrate reporting from IPCC reporting, are political acts by world leaders against human race survival.
Methane - the NOBLE global warming gas
Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic Region averages is about 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb), the highest methane has been in 55.8 million years. This high level of methane brings into doubt the 2050-2099 survivability of Earth’s 9 to 10 billion people.
There are four methane factors associated with the methane force that need to be understood in order to help determine global warming temperature changes:
➲ Natural Methane – Natural methane has produced almost all methane global warming gas. Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure. Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect. The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost. Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53-75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization (aka, “positive-feedback”). In effect initiating a methane clathrate runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.
➲ High Latitude Land Permafrost - Soil carbon are estimated to be stored in soils and permafrost of high latitude ecosystems which is twice as much carbon as is currently contained in the atmosphere. In the warmer world, land permafrost thawing and decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is one of the more likely “positive-feedback” from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Although ground temperature increases in permafrost regions are well documented there is a knowledge gap in the response of permafrost carbon to climate change. The only control mechanism for land permafrost methane gas is regulation of Arctic air temperatures and stop producing carbon particulates deposits.
➲ High Latitude Ocean Permafrost - Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon. Experts are concerned that ocean methane clathrate release as methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric temperatures, thus creating a “positive-feedback” loop that would lead to more methane escaping from the permafrost and more global warming. Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon, and its release as methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric and water temperatures, thus creating a positive-feedback loop that would lead to more methane escaping from the ocean/land permafrost and more global warming. More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. With a normal ~100,000-year interglacial cycle, seawater-methane and atmospheric-methane concentrations are maintained by surface interactions such as chemical and regional sea/air temperature and wave motion. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it reaches the surface. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply does not have enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously non-calculated variable of methane warming to global warming models. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane clathrate-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean. More than 80 percent of the deep water and more than half of surface water have methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater. The Arctic Shelf is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands. It is unknown how much total methane Canada and Alaska land/ocean permafrost contributes to global warming temperature increase. However, patrolling the Arctic Ocean and oil drilling companies have available significant relief-map information that could aid in global warming estimates. The only control mechanism for clathrates methane gas is regulation of current Arctic Ocean temperatures. Arctic Ocean is 542,705 sq mi (14,056,000 sq km).
➲ Methane Global Warming Potential (GWP) - The effects of a critical greenhouse gas on global warming have been significantly underestimated, according to MOST RECENT research suggesting that emissions controls and climate models may need to be revised. Earth's heat exchange rate between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is generally calculated according to global warming potential (GWP), which measures the effects of one tonne of a gas on warming over 20, 100, and 500 years in comparison to one tonne of carbon dioxide. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) for methane includes indirect effects of tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric water vapor production for 20 years is 53. However, methane GWP 53 interaction with carbon monoxide, oxidants, sulphates aerosols molecules and other chemical reactions are complicated. Dependent upon chemical composition of the atmosphere, GWP of methane is 53 to 75 (or GWP 105 taking all into consideration). Recalculated GWP of methane that is 53 to 75 times that of carbon dioxide is a very significant global warming factor increase.
Methane (CH4) may account for up to a third of the global warming from greenhouse gases between 1750 and 2050. The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits (likely resulting from the “clathrate gun methane release”) is a cause of past and future geologic global warming climate changes. Events possibly linked in this way are the Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4 Ma (million years ago)) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (55.8 Ma). Resulting from 1750 to 2011 human global warming activity, current global warming rate of natural and human induced global temperature change is ten times faster than that of the PETM event with current temperature change increasingly impacting Earth’s support of more than 9 billion people.
Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rate of Modern Global Warming.
End-Permian mass extinction 252.28 Ma
At the start of the Permian, the Earth was still at the grip of an Ice Age from the Carboniferous. Glaciers receded around the mid-Permian period as the climate gradually warmed, drying the continent's interiors. In the late Permian period, the drying continued although the temperature cycled between warm and cool cycles.
The end-Permian mass extinction, which a study calls the “most severe biodiversity crisis in earth history,” wiped out 95% of marine life and 70% of life on land about 252.28 million years ago (Ma). Only 5 per cent of species survived the catastrophe. Scientists identify excessive levels of carbon dioxide and methane as the "trigger." Scientists suggest that the massive release of these two warming gases came from volcanic lava flows called Siberian traps now found in northern Russia. The flood basalts triggered carbon dioxide - and methane - induced global warming and caused ocean acidification, a drier climate, more forest fires, and soil erosion.
Near the end of the Permian period, each region of the world had its own fauna and flora. Afterwards, the survivors became cosmopolitan. It took 20 or 30 million years for coral reefs to re-establish themselves, and for the forests to re-grow. In some settings, it took 50 million years or more for full ecosystem complexity to recover. Geologists and paleontologists are only just beginning to get to grips with this most profound of crises.
The Permian period was between 290 Ma and 252 Ma. What exactly happened 252.28 million years ago? Unfortunately, the Modern Global Warming Era is emulating the End-Permian mass extinction. Since 1750 human use of global warming greenhouse gases carbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and resulted in releases of methane gas from Arctic Ocean deposits of methane clathrates (aka, methane hydrates), if left unchecked, will in 2050-2099 result in global warming temperature of 6 °C above 1750 preindustrial level.
In 1866, the Modern Global Warming Era started its temperature increase similar to the Permian crisis. Since pre industrial times, the concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. By 2010, greenhouse gas increased above interglacial concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. The 1750 CE greenhouse concentrations levels were historic interglacial carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Present concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb).
Fortunately, Meishan-Permian rock section (aka, PermianTriassic boundary section) and other sections elsewhere, contain a record of environmental changes through the end-Permian crisis, in the form of isotopes of oxygen and carbon. Both elements have two stable, naturally occurring isotopes whose ratios fluctuate depending on environmental conditions. Skeletons of organisms during their lifetimes contain locked isotope ratios. Careful recordings from the shells of bivalves or foraminiferans, for example, can give a detailed picture of atmospheric and oceanic conditions through time.
Oxygen isotopes are palaeothermometers. Oxygen occurs in two forms, oxygen-16, and oxygen-18. Oxygen isotopes incorporate into the calcite skeletons of marine creatures at different rates depending on the water temperature, more oxygen-18 at low temperatures, and more oxygen-16 at high. At the base of bed 25, the main mass extinction level, there was a sudden shift in the oxygen isotope ratios indicating a worldwide rise in temperature of 6 °C. This may not sound much, but it would have a profound effect on the world's ecology. Climatologists have been getting very excited recently about a 0.8 °C rise in global temperatures.
The carbon isotopes suggest what might have caused the temperature increase. They show a massive shift towards the light isotope, carbon-12, exactly at the time of the big extinction. Pulses of carbon-12 in the geological record are usually indicative of a volcanic eruption or a large die-off (plants, animals and bacteria concentrate carbon-12 in their bodies and release it when they die). Both certainly happened at the end of the Permian. However, the carbon-12 pulse is far too big for the organic large die off mechanisms alone. Calculations of global carbon budgets have suggested that, even if every plant, animal, and microbe died, altogether they would only account for about one-fifth of the observed carbon shift. The Siberian Traps would have added another fifth. Where did the remaining three-fifths of global carbon budget come from?
The extra carbon-12 came from frozen deep under the oceans in the form of methane clathrates (aka, gas hydrates), extraordinary accumulations of carbon-12-rich methane locked up in cages of methane clathrates. Ocean methane clathrates occur at lower temperatures and higher pressure. If the atmosphere and oceans warm up sufficiently, these gas reserves, can suddenly melt and release their contents in a catastrophic way (i.e., “clathrate gun effect”). The explosion of gas through the surface of the oceans has been termed a "methane burp.” A very large methane burp at the end of the Permian could have produced enough carbon-12 to make up the deficit.
The cause of the burp was probably global warming triggered by huge releases of natural carbon dioxide from the Siberian Traps. In the Modern Global Warming, human use of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) is the “trigger” for the Arctic natural "methane burp." Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas too, so a big burp raises global temperatures even further. Normally, long-term natural interglacial global processes act to bring greenhouse gas levels down. This kind of normal interglacial negative feedback keeps the Earth in equilibrium. However, what happens if the release of methane is so huge and fast that normal feedback processes are overwhelmed? Then you have a positive feedback "runaway greenhouse" cascade failure event. That is, a positive feedback system creates excess carbon in the atmosphere causes warming, the warming triggers the release of more methane from gas clathrates, this in turn causes yet more warming, which leads to the release of more methane and so on. As temperatures rise, species start to go extinct. Plants and plankton die off and oxygen levels plummet. This is what seems to have happened 252 million years ago and is starting to happen now. rate of modern Earth’s temperature change is at least 10 times greater that of End-Permian mass extinction temperature rate of change.
Modern Global Warming
Due to the positive feedback effect of melting ice-reducing albedo, End-Permian temperature increases would have been greatest at the poles, which reached an average annual temperature of at least 10 to 20 °C (50 to 68 °F). The surface waters of the northernmost Arctic Ocean warmed, seasonally at least, enough to support tropical life forms requiring surface temperatures of over 22°C (71.6 °F). Under such conditions, there would have been great venting over time of potent global warming methane from Arctic Ocean methane clathrate dissociation. Warming accompanying a south-to-north switch in deep water would produce sufficient warming to destabilize seafloor gas hydrates over most of the world ocean to a water depth of at least 1,900 meter. Modern Global Warming destabilization could result in the release of more than 2,000 gigatons of methane carbon from clathrate zone of the ocean floor. Temperature increase greatly exceeds 6 oC.
Modern Global Warming global average temperatures is to rise at least 5°C (9°F) prior to 2099. The temperature will continue to rise. The resulting impact on Earth's climate will be so severe that a new geological era is born. Because the warming was gradual, Earth's ecosystems were able to adapt to the End-Permian. However, Modern Global warming is about 10 times faster the End-Permian. This time around, Mother Nature will not be able to keep up with the global warming climate change.
Major reasons for the Arctic Ocean temperature increase include the level of Sun’s radiative forcing, ocean current temperature, ocean saline levels, and atmospheric levels of methane/carbon dioxide, aerosol levels, ice level, and a other factors. However, the current primary Polar Region heating forcing results from regional atmospheric methane content, temperatures, and positive feedback loops. Ocean temperatures and currents control the release of methane from large deposits of sea methane clathrates.
Carbon and methane flows between reservoirs in an exchange called the Carbon Cycle, which has slow and fast components. Any change in the cycle shifts carbon out of one reservoir puts more carbon and methane in the other reservoirs. Changes that put carbon and methane gases into the atmosphere result in warmer temperatures on Earth. The fast carbon-methane cycle moves carbon-methane between land, atmosphere, and oceans.
Sudden Polar Methane Release
Once Polar Arctic land glacial-ice becomes unstable, it begins releasing methane from underlying land and lake permafrost. In addition and more importantly, with warming the Polar arctic methane clathrates degas methane. Releases of reservoirs of methane clathrate that is stored in permafrost are huge (7.5 - 400 gigatons). Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution around 1750, humans have pumped about 500 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere.
By some estimates, the global warming potential (GWP) of methane locked up in methane hydrate deposits in the sea and land permafrost is more than 70 times the potential global reserves of all conventional gas, oil, and coal deposits combined. NOTE: When comparing tonnage of global warming gases remember to factor in GWP. One methane tonne of can equal 75 tonnes or more of carbon dioxide.
Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels are determined by changes of the sun’s global warming strength (described by the Milankovitch Cycle). Milutin Milankovitch (1879-1958) Earth Orbital Variation “...orbital variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of climatic change of tens of thousands of years and are by far the clearest case of a direct effect of changing insulation on the lower atmosphere of Earth” --National Research Council, 1982
Recent “natural” Milankovitch Cycle earth temperature ~100,000-year interglacial periods are no longer occurring. Resulting from human activity since 1750, global warming greenhouse gases have increased very-dramatically. The curve of global warming gas increase is a “hockey stick curve.” Current ice-core methane content is well above the normal Milankovitch Earth orbital variation interglacial temperature cycle. Since pre industrial times, the concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. The 1750 CE greenhouse concentrations levels were historic interglacial carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Present concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb).
Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and aerobic degradation of organic compounds in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure. Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect. The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost. Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with a 20-year GWP 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization. In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun. When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees. The Arctic/Antarctic methane clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.”
Earth today is undergoing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly from a Polar very cold, seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state. There is no pause or slow temperature rise. Evolutionary transition does not occur for more than 9 million people. If humans want to regulate Earth’s temperature, it is necessary for humans to control methane clathrates release of methane by controlling ocean temperatures.
A nearly 20-year study reveals that in 2006 the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a combined mass of 475 gigatonnes a year on average. That is enough to raise global sea level by an average of 1.3 millimeters (.05 inches) a year. The pace at which the polar ice sheets are losing mass is accelerating rapidly.
The Polar Arctic has been losing about 10% of its permanent ice layer every ten years since 1980. Melting of Arctic sea ice has also reached record heights: in mid-September 2007, at the point when sea ice reaches its annual minimum extent, perennial ice covered an area of 4.14 million km² (1.60 million mile²). This record low level reached again in September 2011 with 4.34 million km² (1.68 million mile²). The rate of Arctic sea ice loss is accelerating due to regional heating and accelerating global temperature increase. There are vast (or huge) stores of methane in the oceans and North/South Polar Regions that are part of global interglacial carbon-cycle sinks and sources.
With decrease in sea- and land-ice, there comes increased regional Polar Arctic and Arctic Ocean warming, increased release of methane, and resulting global warming temperature increase. Loss of Polar permafrost and ice is an example of a temperature feedback loop. It takes 1,000,000s of years for this modern global temperature increases to return to “normal” interglacial cycles.
It is a major concern that only a little global warming over a short period of 100 years can unleash trapped methane. A large degassing of the methane reservoir could potentially warm the Earth tens of degrees, and the mechanism could be geologically very rapid. Such a violent PETM zipper-like opening of the clathrates would have triggered a catastrophic climate and biogeochemical reorganization of the ocean and atmosphere around 55.8 million years ago. A new PETM methane zipper-like opening would create a modern catastrophic climate change.
Understanding of Methane Clathrate as a Major Positive Global Warming Temperature Feedback - 1989 to President Obama
Discovered were methane clathrates (or hydrates) in 1810. In the 1930s, clathrate formation turned out to be a major problem, clogging pipelines during transportation of gas under cold conditions. Gas clathrates, also called hydrates, are crystalline solids, which look like ice, and occur when water molecules form a cage-like structure around smaller 'guest molecules'. The most common guest molecules are methane, ethane, propane, isobutene, normal butane, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide, of which methane occurs most abundantly in natural clathrates.
Ocean current and changes to ocean current temperatures are important heat exchanges within Earth’s temperature regulation cycle. Oceans play a very important part in the Carbon Cycle. An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of ocean water generated by the forces acting upon this mean flow, such as breaking waves, wind, Coriolis Effect, temperature, and salinity differences. Ocean forces create depth contours; shoreline configurations and interaction with other currents influence direction and strength.
Begun December 1989, the talks held since the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (aka, ‘Earth Summit’) of 1992 formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.
One geologist wrote in a 1989 paper identified that "any slight warming of the Arctic water will release hydrate from the sea floor almost immediately. A temperature change of a few degrees will liberate methane from the uppermost sea-floor sediments at this depth within a few years.” The worst-case analysis is grim indeed: "the danger of a thermal runaway caused by methane release from [sea and land] permafrost is minor, but real ...even if there is only a 1 per cent chance that such events will occur, the social implications are profound."
Millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits form the sea methane clathrates and deposits of organic matter produce methane. Over millenniums, aerobic degradation of organic compounds in low oxygen environments produces global warming methane gas clathrates and other carbon gas forms. The greenhouse gases escape from the sediments into the water column. Sulfides produce a global dimming effect for use in Geoengineering projects to limit the impact of global warming due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
There are huge deposits of methane clathrates whose stability is cold temperature and increased pressure sensitive. As the water temperature increases (or pressure decreases), methane is released to the water column. Clathrates occur wherever the conditions within the sediments are in the methane-clathrate stability field, and where methane and water are available. Methane clathrates degas as determined by temperature and pressure of the clathrate. Gas clathrates are more stable at low temperatures and/or under pressures.
A positive global warming heating results from clathrate releases of methane. The methane release will lead to a catastrophic global warming heating event prior to 2099 where Earth’s average temperature exceeds tens of degrees above preindustrial 1750 temperatures.
Unfortunately, "the danger of a thermal runaway caused by methane release from [sea and land] permafrost” is now a real ongoing event that the EU-US Neo-Communist political movement has been vigorously attempting to conceal.
If the public became better informed about decades of global warming neo-communist politics, the neo-communists would lose control over the energy sector that U.S. left Democrats have been cultivating since President Clinton, Vice President Gore, and left Democrat Congress passage of the U.S. Energy Policy Act of 1992.
Since the late 1990s, anti nuclear neo communists have been undermining the knowledge of the importance of methane in global warming temperature increase. Many of President Obama’s government department websites present false and misleading information. The political intent has been to obscure the structure of global warming temperature increase in order to promote transfer of wealth and transfer of income schemes while promoting “renewable” energy. IPCC documents contain fraudulent assessments created by untoward political committee members (and not by any of the 10 IPCC staff members). U.S. government websites and some university websites contain levels of false information. Identifying reliable sources of global warming information and data can be tricky.
Global Warming
At this stage of the new global warming cycle, and considering Polar Region sea and land permafrost melt, it is approaching certainty that a global warming event is likely to occur. Because we have 7 billion people on earth who lack adult leadership, the new global warming event is a new geologic event. With more than 9 billion people resident before 2050 and the global temperature exceeding +2oC, conditions are becoming worse.
More than 60 million years of interglacial cycle periods (now at 100,000-year intervals), the Sun’s positions determined limits of Earth warming and cooling. Over time, Sun warming of greenhouse-gas methane and carbon dioxide resulted in “more warming” or “less warming.”
Direct chemical analysis of the bubbles trapped within ice-cores identifies levels of concentration of methane, carbon dioxide, and temperatures. Deuterium (Greek symbol D) readings are temperature proxies from the same bubbles containing methane and carbon dioxide. The correlation between the ice-core deuterium kinetic isotope (i.e., temperature proxy) at formation and methane/carbon dioxide and is nearly perfect. Deuterium is a stable, naturally occurring hydrogen isotope. Deuterium (D) kinetic isotope effect is temperature sensitive and is an excellent temperature proxy.
Ice-core samples contain several interglacial cycles. Each interglacial cycle is about 100,000-years. Although the third and fourth climate cycles are of shorter duration than the first two cycles in the Antarctic research Vostok Station record, the four previous climate cycles show a similar sequence of a warm interglacial, followed by colder glacial events, and ending with a rapid return to a long stable interglacial period. Minimum temperatures are within 1°C for the four climate cycles. The overall amplitude of the glacial-interglacial temperature change is ~8°C for the temperature above the inversion level and ~12°C for surface temperatures. Climate cycles deduced from the Vostok ice core appear to have greater uniformity than those records of deep-sea cores. In meteorology, an inversion is a deviation from the normal change of an atmospheric property.
Current Earth life forms have evolved over the last 650,000 years of interglacial cycles. A graph of the current atmospheric global warming gas levels are well above 650,000 years of interglacial cycles highs. Carbon dioxide is now 390 parts per million (ppm) with a preindustrial level of 280 ppm. Methane is now about 1870 parts per billion (ppb) when previously the pre-1750 AD tropospheric concentration was 700 ppb.
For more than 60 million years the most important warming and cooling force has been the warming of the Sun relative to the position of earth. Calculating Sun Radiative Forcing energy at any given time is an orbital mechanics problem. Astronomer Milutin Milankovitch developed the mathematical formulas upon which orbital variations identify climate changes. He hypothesized that when some parts of the cyclic variations combine and occur at the same time, they are responsible for major changes to the Earth's interglacial climate (even ice ages). Milankovitch estimated climatic fluctuations over the last 450,000 years and described cold and warm periods. He did his work in the first half of the 20th century. A 1976 study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Earth orbit variations corresponded to periods of climate change.
Current anthropogenic, geologically very sudden increase in greenhouse gases is primarily caused by burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), which yearly inject a massive bolus tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Post 1750 release of human carbon dioxide initiated a slight temperature increase that released a large amount of natural methane clathrate gases and increased positive global warming feedbacks.
“Normal” interglacial global warming is self-rectifying by slow chemical weathering processes responsible for mineral sequestration of carbon or by gradual return of Earth’s orbital parameters to a cooling cycle, thereby significantly reducing the amount of solar radiant heating reaching the Earth’s surface. After 500 to 1,000 years, atmospheric methane no longer is a global warming gas. It takes many 1,000s of years for atmospheric carbon to reduce its global warming potential. The result is cooling oceans are able to gradually absorb and lower atmospheric methane/carbon dioxide, enabling restoration of albedo at higher latitude/altitude, producing further slow global cooling.
This explains why global warming is fast to rise and post-maximum temperatures are slow to fall.
As part of the Carbon Cycle, during the base 60 million years, surface wave action of oceans absorbs and expels large quantities of methane and carbon dioxide. Methane and carbon dioxide are principal effects in Earth’s temperature change. After 1750, anthropocentric (human) carbon dioxide from burning forest, coal, oil, and natural gas increased atmospheric and ocean current temperatures. Natural ocean methane releases increased. Increased temperatures produced positive temperature feedback loops of ocean methane clathrate deposits degassed.
Earth’s temperature “rapidly” increases until there is a stabilization point reached between Sun relative position to earth and the atmospheric methane/carbon dioxide levels. A realistic temperature limit for human race survival would be +1.5 oC.
Unless there is a radical energy policy change that now reduces global warming greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide, 2050 to 2099 Earth’s excessive temperatures are too high for human races continued existence. New energy policies must peak human and natural global warming gases 2015-2020 and the global warming gases are to decline thereafter.
Globally we put about 90 million tons of human and natural global warming pollution into the atmosphere every 24 hours. If there is no U.S. Energy Policy and German in 2012 that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099.
Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce warming. By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.
World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.
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