Global Warming Science vs Politics

Rev 30 Dec 2011

Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099 Cristian Era (CE).

For more than 60 million years Earth went through many natural ~100,000 year interglacial cycles.  Around 1750 CE  the human Industrial Era started by using coal, oil, and natural gas energy resulting in a steady accumulated increase of global warming atmospheric content of human produced carbon dioxide (CO2). Temperatures now are increasingly exceeding interglacial maximums.  Increased human carbon dioxide resulted in increasing global temperature, which resulted in thawing of Arctic Region land-permafrost and increased ocean current temperature that increased sea methane-clathrate deposit releases of natural methane (CH4).  Arctic Region releases of natural ‘carbon’ gases (ie, methane and carbon dioxide) produces  a positive feedback loop that releases more ‘carbon’ gases and more increased temperatures.  A recent survey drew on the expertise of 41 permafrost scientists to offer informal global warming projections. They estimated that if human fossil-fuel burning remained high and the planet warmed sharply, the warming gases from sea and land permafrost methane and carbon could too soon equal more than 35 percent of 2011 annual human carbon emissions.   

By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases accumulations influenced global temperature increase to produce a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on “climate change.”  The 2011 CE data identifies carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now higher than a worst-case scenario predicted in 2007 CE, revealing just how ineffective or counter productive politicians have been in addressing global warming temperature increase.  Greenhouse gas increased above natural pre-1750 CE global warming concentration are ~39% for carbon dioxide and methane is ~164%.  

Global temperature has increased about 0.8 oC since pre-industrial 1750 CE.  Accumulated greenhouse gases are increasing dramatically each year.  Future temperature increase rate-of-change is accelerating with the next 50-year temperature increase to be much faster.  Expected is crossing of +2 oC limit in 2030-2040 CE.  Logical and scientific progression of increasing human carbon dioxide and increasing natural ‘carbon’ global warming of methane and carbon dioxide gases is an unlivable for humans  temperature increase that exceeds +5 oC prior to 2099 CE.  If the Arctic Region methane clathrate gun is triggered, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC much closer to 2050 CE.  Human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.  

Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE-to-date of human carbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane.  Faced with human “infrastructure lock-in” of the global “carbon budget” the point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.  We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in, which makes it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide.  Increased natural global warming methane levels add to human carbon dioxide levels.  Under existing world leadership command of national carbon economies and responses to methane and global warming temperature increase, it is most unlikely that necessary global warming mitigation will be implemented in a timely manor.  Changes will not occur in time, human races shall cease to exist 2050-2099 CE.

Modern Global Warming vs End-Permian Mass Extinction

A major difference between Modern Global Warming (1750-2099) temperature increase event vs 252.28 million years ago (Ma) End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rates of Modern Global Warming.

World Leadership Response

Stresses of increased populations, increased carbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident.  Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded NUCLEAR ENERGY, as a replacement for carbon producing coal, oil, and natural gas energy.  However, the politics of the U.S. and Germain Leadership’s only interest is in national energy gains of political power and with special interest momentary gains within common carbon and renewable energy.  Political interests are of expanding alternative renewable energy and automobile ethanol (alcohol).  Such “alternative energy” activity is politically motivated with capacity-inadequate alternative energy sources that are large-scale, unmanageable, and counterproductive.  Alternative renewable energy and ethanol remain political deceptions that make some politically connected people richer while expanding national global warming carbon economies and increasing global warming.  

World Leaders Must Establish Their Intent to Save Human Races 2050-2099 CE

The identification of political intent for Modern Global Warming response is an absolute critical need. Without assured Leadership promotion of saving all human life there is little doubt that all who are now under 30-years of age are at a increasing grave risk of perishing from global warming temperature increase.  The very young most certainly will die from global warming.  World Leaders must establish their intent and willingness to save human races. Without that 2012 CE declared intent, and Leadership action to curb global warming global warming, massive global warming suicide is assured.  The Leaders goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE global warming.

A national or global greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results occurring over time, Earth temperatures, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, temperature balance stabilization period, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of technically achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb).  

Additionally, environment changes over time, population density, human food chain loss, biodiversity loss, increased drought and famine, potable water scarcity, an upsurge in the expense and intensity of certain natural disasters and survivability status are to be identified for the most probable global warming projections.  Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited energy use changes, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics to be proposed by untoward politicians or surrogates.      

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations on all time scales and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural forcing scenarios.  Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely scenario.   

Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce global warming greenhouse gases.  By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time a temperature stabilization occurs when natural and human atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations balance with matching systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback and temperature.

Unworthy News Media   

The media is not attempting to prevent global human races destruction.  On the contrary, the media has presented little interest in the most certain destruction of human races.  The media has also demonstrated little interest concerning U.S., Great Britain, and German political global warming attitudes and feasibility of national energy policies reducing greenhouse gases. There was sharp media reporting drop off drop off of global warming reporting with 2009-2011 CE U.S. left Democrats domination of national and regional politics and left Democrats attempt to join European/U.S. communists/socialists.  Specifically, UN paper shuffle of carbon cap-and-trade funds, Germany shutting down nuclear energy, U.S. left Democrats shutting down Yucca Mountain nuclear repository, President Obama's push for "4 million green jobs," and left Democrats funding of more than $90 billion "alternative renewable energy" for SPECIAL POLITICAL INTEREST groups, resulted in derailing of the recovery effort for global warming temperature increase.

Electricity prices paid by German households are to rise more than 20 percent by 2020 as Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes to remove her German nuclear energy.  In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 CE became German law.  With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or Atomic-Exit Law), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending all of Germany’s reliance on nuclear energy.  German “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for Green Party displaced nuclear energy.  Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 CE will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.  

There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. left Democrat’s phase-out of nuclear facilities or for President Obama’s “national energy plan.”  There are no estimates that identify President Obama’s long-term costs for his U.S. nuclear energy phase-out and October 1, 2010 nuclear cabal’s closure of Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository.  There is no U.S. energy planning, only limited responses to energy crises. A U.S. nuclear repository is necessary for America's nuclear fuel cycle and is an integral part of American energy needs, nuclear electrical generation, and national defense programs, which satisfies defense needs and also global greenhouse gas reductions goals.  The current blocking of U.S. nuclear power development and safe Yucca Mountain Repository long-term storage development has profound implications for U.S. nuclear base-load electricity generation availability, well into the 21st Century.  

A global ideological effort is at play to impose a radical climate social agenda on the developing world at the behest of left Democrat “green” environmentalist groups.  Obama’s White House as stated in December 12, 2011, that "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA 2009] also included over $90 billion in clean energy investments."  None of President Obama's planning or funding involves addressing global warming temperature increase.  None of Obama’s invested $90 billion has or will produce any reduction in greenhouse gases or reduction in global warming temperature or improve national security, health, or safety.  President Obama and congressional Democrats/Republicans have engaged in a massive waste of green-energy funding that accomplish no benefits to counter global warning temperature increase. All U.S. government departments are now under direct control of President Obama and are influenced by those favored by left Democrats. U.S. government department reporting is now untrustworthy.  Global warming temperature recovery effort is in a spiral of assured human life destruction.           

Because U.S. and Europe media reporting is now intertwined with politicians’ retention of power and corruption, major media reporting can no longer be trusted.  There has been a drop off in "climate change" reporting in 2009-2011 CE.  What accounts for this change?  A partial answer may be the difficulties facing the news media market over the last few years. Newspapers and periodicals are not a growth industry.  TV market share drives TV news reporting while there is about $2 billion in U.S. 2012 election campaign funding available.  The news media divide is not ideological, it is about capturing the larger market share and holding on to politically controlled media funding.  Media reporting has been politically corrupted.  Political media organizations that are reliable news-partners for political organizations are now more dependent upon politicians, lobbyists, organized labor, lawyer groups, and political action committees (PACs) for all-year and election-year support funding for media articles and advertising.  

As media organizations downsize, an ever decreasing number of journalists are required to cover an ever increasing remit of issues.  News media owners and senior staff have obvious vested self-interest in multi-billion dollar elections that place critical public interests beneath immediate news-media corporate profits.  No longer are news media interest to save human races from annihilation.  Republican and Democrat politicians do tun off the flow of $100s of billions of advertising-flow dollars if a news media organization was to report upon the elected ruling class’ global warming political follies.  There will be no embarrassing media comments about greenhouse gas emission or global warming temperature increase.  Human races are to quietly wait for 2050-2099 CE global warming destruction while the news media, politicians, and the politically connected increase their personal profits, power, and influence.

Europe-U.S. are locked into funding alternative fuels, renewable energy, and eliminating nuclear energy.  China-India are building carbon “infrastructure lock-in” of their greatly expand carbon based economies.  To save the human races involves this century reducing human carbon dioxide emissions to zero, which is a several trillion dollar political change.  Since President Obama is leading from behind on implementing effective global warming issues, most likely ‘change’ and ‘hope’ will not occur in time to save human races.     

Global Warming to the End

Rev 01 Jan 2012

Scientists have declared that understanding natural methane release is a major priority.  Money and people devoted to the issue natural methane are minimal compared with the risk of 2050-2099 Christian Era (CE) destruction of human races.  

Experts have long known that northern Polar Regions were a land storehouse of frozen carbon, locked up in the form of leaves, roots and other organic matter trapped in icy soil — a mix that, when thawed, can produce methane and carbon dioxide, global warming gases that trap heat and warm the planet. In recent years scientist have come to realize just how much land organic debris there is.  Not often mentioned is Polar sea methane deposits that have vastly greater stores of methane and carbon dioxide. The source of sea methane and carbon dioxide are frozen seabed deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas.  More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science.  Both land and sea storage of methane are temperature dependent.  As temperature increases, methane and carbon dioxide are released, which produces a localized temperature increase and more release of methane (a positive feedback loop).  Sea methane clathrate deposits are both temperature and pressure dependent.  A increase in temperature in shallow water releases more methane than in deeper water.  The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because its methane clathrate deposits are so shallow. Recent analyses suggest that the permafrost thaw could turn the Arctic into a net source of carbon (methane and carbon dioxide), possibly within a decade or two.  Carbon that is 30,000 years old is defrosting and emerging at numerous spots around Fairbanks, Alaska, and carbon as old as 43,000 years emerging from lakes in Siberia, Soviet Union. If these carbon releases continue or increase, the “methane clathrate gun” is released. Reference: Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented,"   

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly.  The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Methane at 1,850 ppb is the highest it has ever been for more than 60 million years. Methane is a much more powerful global warming gas than is carbon dioxide. This high level of methane brings into doubt the survivability of 9 to 10 billion people.

Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.  

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Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives anthropogenic energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels.  From type and amount of energy used, there originates increased natural carbon and methane atmospheric levels.  The 1750 CE Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) has accumulated massive amounts of gases over time.  By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and anthropogenic GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as result of human activity.  Scientists suggest that left unchecked Modern Global Warming accumulated natural and anthropomorphic warming forces will exceed carbon and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.  There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm carbon dioxide, much less above 450 ppm.  It is very important to note that most natural methane levels and some natural carbon levels are atmospheric and ocean-current temperature dependent.  The least-cost global warming option is to now lower Earth global warming and steadily transform global human energy systems over the coming decades to lower human GHG emissions and than lower to zero emissions.   

Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years with a continued rise in temperature.  A major difference between current global warming temperature increase event and 252.28 Ma End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming infrastructure lock-in point of no-return comes around 2017 CE.  Under existing world leadership's covert carbon energy policies and opposition to conversion from carbon economies to nuclear energy, all human races shall be destroyed 2050-2099 CE.  This means, no one under the current age of 30 survives global warming temperature increase.  

Begun December 1989, the UN talks held since the 1992 ‘Earth Summit’ formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.  Catastrophic, irreversible “climate change” represents the gravest threat today to human civilization.  Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate.  Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade.  In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory (“business as usual”).  If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach.  The consequences of exceeding global warming tripping points are very severe.   

LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING - The political responses to global warming temperature increase have been decades of planned failures.  No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.  Because world leaders do not acknowledge global warming, the popular news media still does not recognize global warming temperature increase.   

A GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE PLAN - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels).  Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century.  To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).  

No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.

There are only three avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit the size of the human population rate of growth

By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.

Human and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations exceed critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts are abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and most important methane clathrates venting.  

The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP 3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 CE in Kyoto, Japan, stipulates that developed countries collective greenhouse emissions should be reduce by 5.2% from 1990 CE levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012 CE), primarily through meeting their self imposed national targets. Recent research showed that global emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions increased by 75% between 1970 and 2004 CE to about 45,000 megaton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq).  The greenhouse gas reduction mission of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol has been a complete failure caused by too many indifferent world leaders who want their nations to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.

A Window of Opportunity Closes
 
Within the scientific community, there remains a long felt concern that unless global warming greenhouse gas emissions do not soon decline by 2020 CE, a window of opportunity closes.  If, having missed the window of opportunity, Earth’s new temperature regulation establishes a stabilizing point that is an unlivable temperature increase prior to 2099 CE.  

U.S. Government politics involving global warming (aka, Climate Change) has resulted in no government agency adequately identifying deep concerns about the accelerating progress of global warming temperature increase and resulting impacts upon the human life cycle.  Nor has any global leader identified pending elimination of human races.  

Contributing to the termination of the human race is a projected population expansion to 9 billion people that greatly exceeds the capacity of Earth to support at the current rate of per capita consumption increase (or GDP standard of living increase).  Projected energy consumption per capita is increasing dramatically.  The consequences of current 7 billion people, increased mechanized harvesting of Earth resources, and ineffective Earth resource management, adds to the concern that the human race will terminate within 2050-2099 CE.  

It is astonishing (and disheartening) that world leaders and U.S. Congressional mismanagement is the fate of young adults and human races.  The political understanding of the consequences of global warming temperature increase and the political understanding sciences of the Modern Global Warming Era are inadequate.  Expected is that politics will continue “business as usual” increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions.  

According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Figure SPM.7) report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2099 CE.  The amount of increased unmitigated anthropomorphic and natural greenhouse gas emissions determines the date of the temperature-threshold crossing +6.0 °C.  Continuing “business as usual” human carbon energy greenhouse gas-increases result in Earth’s temperature crossing +6.0 °C temperatures 2050-2099 CE.  However, if the Polar Regions’ methane clathrate gun explodes, the crossing of +6.0 °C occurs much sooner than current projections of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions.  

Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic bacteria degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure.  Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect.  The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost.  Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53 to 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization.  In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.  

When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees.  The clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.”  There is strong evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years; most notably in connection with the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma.   

Runaway methane clathrate breakdown caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years.  Continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead Modern Global Warming to changes that are ten times faster than End-Permian Mass Extinction.  

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped a massive amount of greenhouse gases (about 500 gigatons of carbon) into the atmosphere resulting in some releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in ocean marine sediments (potential 500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Polar Regions permafrost (potential 7.5 - 400 gigatons). Triggered by massive human carbon releases accumulations since 1750 and resulting massive increased methane releases, current rate of global temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of End-Permian Mass Extinction.  

Earth today is experiencing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly changes from a Polar very cold and seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state.  Mid-level latitude is very hot.  There is no pause or slow temperature rise.  Evolutionary transitions do not occur.  “Adaption” does occur slowly for the 9 billion people inhabiting Earth.  However, like slowly boiling a frog in a pot of water, the 9 billion people die within the 2050-2099 period.  

Talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are “the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.”  However, 1990s talks diverted from UNFCCC solving the global warming temperature increase crisis to that of politicians agreeing to the corruption of investors to build a large “alternative renewable energy” industry, shut down the Europe and U.S. nuclear industries, and the 2009 transfer-of-wealth of US$100 billion to “poor” nations’ leaders.  Since 1992, world leaders have sold out to political special interest the ‘time necessary’ and ‘means available’ to correct global warming temperature increase.  

In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting.  “Businesses as usual” is the normal course of anthropomorphic and natural accelerating rate of global warming activity.  In the 2000s,  “business as usual” scenario reporting of greenhouse gas emissions lost out to the political opaqueness and diversions of building the “alternative renewable green energy” politics, bashing nuclear energy, and the politics of not reporting the important greenhouse gas methane.  This political delay in responding to the global warming event may have placed us beyond ability to respond adequately to stopping global temperature increase.  That is, we have exceeded too many critical trip points: methane/carbon greenhouse gas atmospheric considerations, aerosol density, soot density, intensity of carbon economies, public apathy, lacking capability of productive political response, to name a few trip points.  Additionally, there remains a very strong campaign by those who want to continue fossil fuel economies and "business as usual."  Scientific global warming story has not been powerful enough to offset political opposition to truth.  Mitigation is the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something.  Mitigation-funding necessary to stop global warming became global/national transfer of wealth schemes and “renewable energy” corruption.  The real political purpose of “renewable energy” is to act as a public diversion and pay off the renewable energy investors while the politicians increase carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economies.  The rest of the political global warming response is history.  There is no global warming mitigation.  The rate of global temperature increase is rapidly accelerating. The global warming path is clear - Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining climate at a livable level.  

If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the +2.0°C target will slip out of reach:    

● +2.0°C: Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020, in 2030-2040 Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature.  World population reaches 8.7 billion by 2040 and exceeds 9 billion prior to 2050. Coral reefs almost extinct - In North America, a new dust bowl bring deserts to life in the high plains states, centered on Nebraska.  In addition, wipes out agriculture and cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north.  Major to massive dust storms sweep the Midwest.

 Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas.  In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages.  Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics.  Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction.

 In the 20th century, sea has risen by an average of 2mm per year, but it is accelerating and over the last decades, the rise in sea level has gone approximately 70% faster.  Even in the most optimistic scenario, which requires extremely dramatic climate change goals, major technological advances and strong international cooperation to stop emitting greenhouse gases and polluting the atmosphere, the sea would continue to rise.  After now stop emitting greenhouse gases, by the year 2100 AD the sea will have raised by 60 cm (1.9 feet) and by the year 2500 AD the rise in sea level will be 1.8 meters (5.9 feet).  For the two more realistic scenarios, calculated based on the emissions and pollution stabilizing, the results show that there will be a sea level rise of about 75 cm (2.5 feet) and that by the year 2500 AD the sea will have risen by 2 meters (6.6 feet).  IPCC stated in AR4 that global warming should cause sea levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by 2100.

 Warming Weather - Temperature, humidity, altitude, ocean currents, and pressure differences fuels the mid-latitude storms affect Earth’s most populated regions.  Warmer temperatures increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere.  The result is a hotter, more humid environment.  At mid latitudes, conditions are hot and humid.  At the poles the air is cold and dry; a little extra heat, water vapor, and regional methane clathrate breakdown raises temperatures greatly, remedial action becomes ineffectual.  

 Rain forest turns to desert - The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke.  Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming.  The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years.  Polar bears, walruses and ringed seals all go extinct.  Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away.  Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa.  

+4.0°C to +4.4°C: Scientists warn only one-tenth of the 2050 world’s people will survive.  Of 9 billion people only 900 million survive this point, which is a number near that of the 1785 global population.  

Melting ice caps displace millions - Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic put Siberian and Canada permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2).  Global temperatures keep on rising rapidly in consequence.  Melting ice caps and sea level rises displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai.  Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece.  More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs.  Agriculture collapses in Australia. Students now enrolled in schools and universities face this future:

WATER - Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes.  Groundwater is increasingly over drafted and surface water is in very short supply.

ECOSYSTEMS – There are major extinctions around the globe.  Food chain disruptions are widespread.  Coral mortality is spreading.  Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as ~40% of ecosystems affected.  Surface and groundwater reserves are critically short of water.

FOOD - All production of cereals decrease.  There is increased ocean acidification, increased water hypoxia, and decreased fish biomass.

COAST – There is increased damage from floods and storms, with about 30% loss of coastal wetlands.  Additional 2 to 15 million people are at risk of coastal flooding each year.  There is increased loss of groundwater storage capacity from saltwater inundation into coastal aquifers.

HEALTH – There are increased health burdens from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts.  Substantial increased burden on health services.

SINGLE EVENTS - Long-term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss, leading to reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and inundation of low-lying areas.  It is to be noted that the (<10%) likelihood in the 21st century Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) shutdown may still be significant given the high consequences of an abrupt shutdown.  MOC shutdown includes adverse effects on food production and terrestrial vegetation, changes in fisheries and effects on oceanic carbon dioxide uptake and oceanic oxygen concentrations, an increased warming of southern hemisphere high latitudes and tropical drying.  Weather change patterns are also associated with MOC and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) activity.

SOCIAL STABILITY – Society’s social structure will increasingly breakdown as life support systems break down under the demands of increased population, increased climate change, increased regional temperatures, decreased food supplies, and increased life support distribution issues.

+5.4°C: Rising sea levels in the coming centuries is perhaps one of the most catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures.  Left unchanged, the sea levels rise by 5 meters (16.4 feet).  “Business as usual” emissions produce a 1.1-meter (3.6 FEET) rise of sea level by 2099.  Only a very small fraction of the 9-10 billion could continue to exist at the Polar Regions.     

+6.0°C: Long-term effects on global warming “climate change” are largely "irreversible" for more than a million years.  

Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.”  Some resulting impacts were abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and methane clathrates venting.  

Carbon dioxide has unique long-term effects on climate change that are largely "irreversible" for thousands of years after emissions stop (zero further emissions).  Even if carbon and methane emissions were to cease completely, current atmospheric temperatures increase will not decrease significantly.  Warming seas release of methane trapped in sub-oceanic sediments and methane clathrates.  Earth’s human races are long gone before methane fireballs tear across the Polar Region sky, causing further warming.  If human and natural greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the model of global warming is similar to End-Permian Mass Extinction. Major differences between current global warming temperature increase event and End-Permian is that current temperature increase was caused by massive human energy use carbon emissions resulting from population growth from 1750 CE (that had ~900 million people) to a Modern Global Warming population of ~7 billion people.  Additionally, beginning stages of current temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of the End-Permian Mass Extinction.  Oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer.  Deserts extend almost to the Arctic.  "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which strip the land of soil.  Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges.  Life on Earth snuffed out as temperatures rise higher and than stabilizes for more than a hundred million years. Benign neglect of Earth’s Carbon/Methane Carbon Cycle produces stress on Earth of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures, which is evident.  Human factors do not change to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reductions.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy.  “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity and is unmanageable on the larger scale. “Renewable” energy projects have a history of significant large amounts of corruption.

The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is continuation of persistent European-U.S. communist interests, carbon economy interests, “alternative renewable energy” interests, and anti-nuclear interest.  Most certainly other global warming problems, but these listed interests are the largest manageable obstacle.

Commentary letters identifying some additional issues of global warming found at ‘Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”’:

(1) Blogger “Global Warming NUCLEAR 1990 to 2011 Decline of Global Clean Nuclear Energy”

(2) Blogger “Global Warming POLITICS U.S. Renewable Energy”

(3) Blogger “Global Warming PHYSICS Catastrophic Crisis”

(4) Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented"   

This letter is the only public document that presents an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THESE BLOGGER ADDRESSES ALONG.  Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase.  The liberal media has stakes in maintaining the proper image of U.S. left Democrat and European leadership while the conservative media is too concerned about their ratings to discuss Modern Global Warming.  Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming.  Lacking a variety of reliable peer-reviewed scientific reporting of the Modern Global Warming era, too soon the global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable.  It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming.  If there is no U.S., German, and Global Energy Policy of 2012 CE that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099 CE.  

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Global Warming NUCLEAR (Part 1) 1990 to 2011 Decline of Global Clean Nuclear Energy

Rev 01 Jan 2012

Without now reducing natural and human greenhouse emissions Earth’s average temperature shall exceed a level that is capable of sustaining human races. Without political change, the one hundred and sixty thousand year journey of modern man ends 2050-2099.

The stress of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures is evident.  Human factors can not change to accommodate necessary global warming temperature increase.  The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy. “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity, is unmanageable and is ineffective on the larger scale.   

The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is the continuation of persistent anti-Vietnam-War and anti-nuclear politics.  There are most certainly other global warming problems, but anti-nuclear politics is among the largest manageable obstacle.

This Blogger website provides the only documents that present an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THIS WEBSITE ALONG.  Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase.  The liberal media has stake in maintaining the proper image of left liberal Democrats while the conservative media is only starting to explore global warming.  Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming.  Without help from news media, politicians, and public, too soon global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable.  

It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming.  If there is no U.S. and German Energy Policy of 2012 that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099.  

There is no public plan to reduce global warming greenhouse gas that causes global warming temperature increase. Large industrialized nations within the EU and U.S. have removed more than 20% of their clean nuclear energies from national inventories in order to promote “renewable” energy and shut down of nuclear industries.  That act shall destroy human races prior to 2099.  

Nuclear Energy is the Only Energy Source That Has Necessary Clean Energy Capacity Capable of Reducing Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nuclear energy has TENS OF THOUSANDS of person-years of very safe services with a proven capacity and sufficient base-load electricity.  As of October 2011, there are 14,640 reactor-years of worldwide experience in producing civil nuclear power.  There have been three major reactor accidents in the history of civil nuclear power - Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima.  One was contained without harm to anyone (Three Mile Island), the next involved an intense fire without provision for containment (Chernobyl), and the third severely tested the containment, allowing some release of radioactivity (Fukushima).  These are the only major accidents to have occurred in over 14,640 cumulative reactor-years of commercial nuclear power operation in 32 countries.  The risks from western nuclear power plants, in terms of the consequences of an accident or terrorist attack, are minimal compared with other commonly accepted risks.  Nuclear power plants are very robust.  When compared to the damages done by coal, oil, and natural gas, nuclear energy is very safe and a superior energy source.  
 
Nuclear energy is low cost clean energy competition to “green, alternative, and renewable” energy.  Therefore, to maintain their political monopoly over energy sectors and ongoing global warming corruption, EU-US anti-nuclear neo-communists eliminated and delayed construction of national nuclear energy sectors.  U.S. anti nuclear protests seeks leadership power and acknowledgment.  Government anti nuclear obstacles has resulted in few new constructed nuclear facilities for more than three decades.  President Obama de-funded the Yucca Mountain nuclear geologic repository to continue the forced shutdown of the U.S. nuclear energy sector.  U.S. nuclear energy sector provides more than 20% of U.S. firm energy.  Obama also controls the politics of the powerful U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members’ regulations and rulings.

U.S. President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel elimination of national nuclear energy was to remove the nuclear competitor to their nation’s “green energy” renewables and permit continued corruption.  Without nuclear energy, global warming greenhouse gas emission-thresholds greatly exceed interglacial “norms,” resulting in 2050-2099 human races destruction.   

Dream the impossible.  German environmentalists cheered at Germany's shutdown of its nuclear energy sector, apparently satisfied that the government will be able to scale up renewable energy sources and scale back electricity demand enough to compensate for the loss of the power plants, which produce a quarter of the nation’s electricity.  Reference: IEA "Prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2ºC is getting bleaker" 30 May 2011 LINK: http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959   

The Washington Post (June 2011) describes Germany's announcement to close all nuclear reactors by 2022 as a “panicked overreaction,” noting that “Germany’s overreaching greens are showing the rest of the world just how difficult it is to contemplate big cuts in carbon emissions without keeping nuclear power on the table.”  Germany until March 2011 obtained more than one quarter (28%) of its electricity from nuclear energy, using 17 reactors.  The country's operating nuclear power reactors, comprising 15% of installed capacity, 133 billion kWh net in 2010.

The German Green Party traces its origins to the student protest movement of the 1960s, the environmentalist movement of the 1970s, and the peace movement of the early 1980s.  The focus of the environmentalist protests are anti nuclear power.   The green Party movement is at German labor, businesses, and politicians, all of whom have enthusiastically endorsed nuclear use, particularly after the sharp rise in oil prices in 1973.  Green Party of Germany in 1998 to 2005 formed a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD).  In 2009 Christian Democratic Union party shares power with the pro-business Free Democrats.  The new SPD-Free Democrats government in 2009 cancelled German nuclear phase-out, nuclear phase-in was on the table again.  Troubles at nuclear plants in Japan triggered by an earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 buoyed Green Party numbers at the polls in German state elections later that month.  Greens claimed their first state government as the senior partners in a coalition with the SPD.  In 2011, the SPD-Green Party again implemented nuclear phase-out.  In June 2011, a nuclear exit by 2022 became German law.  With the ‘Nuclear Exit Law’ (or ‘Atomic-Exit Law’), Chancellor Merkel and her SPD-Green Party put into place the ending of all German reliance on nuclear energy. Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels.  There are no carbon dioxide emission estimates for the U.S. phase-out of nuclear facilities.    

German think tank ‘Breakthrough Institute’ points out that “renewables” would have to generate an incredible/impossible 42.4% of German’s electricity in 2020 to compensate for displace nuclear.  Large German costs have occurred due to phase-out of nuclear energy and introduction of “renewable” energy.  Public opinion in Germany remains ambivalent and at present does not support building new nuclear plants.   

Switzerland has five nuclear reactors generating 40% of its electricity.  A national vote had confirmed nuclear energy as part of Switzerland's electricity mix.  However, in June 2011 parliament resolved not to replace any reactors, and hence to phase out nuclear power by 2034.  In the 1960s, it was evident that Swiss power demand would exceed the potential for supply from hydro sources, so utilities proposed building coal- and oil-fired plants.  However, environmental groups and others strenuously opposed coal- and oil-fired plants based on compromising the hitherto clean power generation, so the government encouraged the utilities to plan for nuclear power.  A ten-year moratorium on new nuclear plant construction occurred during a national referendum in 1990.  Then in a unique 2003, Swiss voters firmly rejected two anti-nuclear proposals.  November 2010, the Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate drew up definitive appraisals for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy saying that three sites are suitable for building new reactors.  Following a decision by cabinet not to replace the country's nuclear power plants, the national Council on 7 June 2011 voted to endorse nuclear energy until 2034.  The team of international nuclear safety experts 02 Dec 2011 completed a two-week International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) review of the regulatory framework for nuclear safety in Switzerland. The Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) mission noted good practices in the Swiss system and also made recommendations for the nation's nuclear regulatory authority, the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI).  A new government taking office December 2011 is to produce a new energy policy on nuclear power by 2013 and submit it to parliament.  Until then the future of nuclear power remains uncertain.

If China wants to reach the heights of US gross domestic product (GDP), it must generate much more electricity than is currently produced.  This is a massive challenge for everyone working in China’s electricity-generation sector.  China's electric energy increase needs to come from nuclear energy.  A one-gigawatt nuclear-power plant needs only 20 to 30 tonnes of fuel a year.  However, a coal plant of the same generating capacity (one-GW) burns two to three million tonnes of coal annually – about 100 train-car loads worth a day.  That coal plant produces 200,000 tonnes of coal ash waste a year, as well as releasing into the atmosphere large quantities of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and particulates, causing increased global warming and acid rain and ocean acidification.  The contribution of nuclear power to greenhouse-gas emissions, meanwhile, is very small: UN Environment Programme figures from 2000 estimate total emissions of carbon-dioxide equivalent for nuclear power are around 39 grams per kilowatt-hour.  China will never meet its economic goals by using renewable energy.  As a real need vs. benefits, renewable energy is insignificant and counter productive.  

By claiming that nuclear “waste” disposal remains a problem, the anti nuclear neo communists continue justifying their self-generated nuclear waste problem. There have been no verifiable nuclear “waste” problems identified. The U.S. nuclear energy sector needs more long-term nuclear repositories.  Only anti-nuclear, communists, and self-serving politicians have problems with geologic nuclear repositories.  President Obama refuses to release the funds and authorizations necessary to complete opening the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Repository.  German’s Green Party also has a geologic repository that they refuse to permit completion.

Without Germany and U.S. participation the human races no longer continues to exist this century.  International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on May 2011 that global energy-related carbon emissions last year were the highest ever, and that the world is far off track if it wants to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius, after which the results could be very dangerous.  

Autocratic U.S. White House has control over news media reporting and controls liberal media maintains stakes in left Democrat points of view.  When discussing energy or global warming, U.S. and European news media no longer identify the topics.  More than 20% of U.S. and German energy sector no longer exists within Obama’s nation and within Germany. Resulting from news media complacency, Obama-Merkel anti-nuclear political partnership has assured that surviving the coming global warming catastrophe has moved from “slim chance” to “no chance” of survival.

The first four Chinese AP1000 reactors build are from modules fabricated adjacent to each site.  The timeline is 50 months (4.2 years) from first concrete to fuel loading, and then six months to grid connection, with first costs expected to reduce significantly for the following units.  The cost of the first four built is expected to be less than $2000/kW of rated capacity and reducing to $1600/kW for further units.  Contrasting Chinese construction cost examples of U.S. nuclear units undergoing the permit process that include other charges are estimated at around $8,000 to $10,000/kW of rated capacity and an additional financing charges and project contingencies, at $5,335/kW.  American huge costs in the nuclear industry result from political overhead.  

To lift people from poverty, the energy supply problem must provide renewable nuclear power or hydroelectric power.  Hydroelectric power is site limited and expensive to build. Nuclear power is still unnecessarily expensive.  Wind and solar power (both with batteries) and solar cookers are good alternative energy sources for rural poor locations. If Obama and Merkel carry on with “green energy” renewables, there will be completely catastrophic increases in energy prices while global warming temperature continues to increase.  

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