Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction?

Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099 CE, but most likely 2050-2055 CE.

The EU climate protection target - the 2 oC limit - established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 CE. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by 260-years of using hydrocarbon energy. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4); methane has a much larger 20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 Christian Era (CE) to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide (CO2 at 450-ppm is the 2 oC limit). Global warming carbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017 CE.  

Historical Global Warming

To have any reasonable 70% chance of avoiding destruction of human races 2050-2055, global human and natural greenhouse gas emissions are to peak by 2015-2020. If not now corrected, it is almost certain human races will end around 2050-2055. What happens after 2055 end of human races is of little interest. However, some people might want to know what they are missing.

55.8 million years ago -- Caused by excessive human carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 CE and resulting methane emissions - Earth's global warming is similar to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of about 55.8 million years ago (Ma), when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents. Within PETM, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and volcanic carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. Huge amounts of carbon and methane were released into atmosphere and from carbon cycle. PETM globe warmed 5 to 9°C (9 to 16°F). A major difference between current Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase event and PETM is that current temperature increase during beginning stages is about 15 times faster (and accelerating) than PETM event. Global temperature increase is projected to be too fast for Earth or human ecosystems to adapt.

In 2010, our fossil fuel burning released 35 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. By comparison, volcanoes now release about 0.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. How fast carbon and methane enters atmosphere translates to how fast temperature increases after delays. Environmental and societal consequences of warming at such a speed will be devastating.

PETM temperature rose steadily with slow release of greenhouse gas. Today, fossil fuel burning releases carbon about fifteen times greater than PETM, driving global temperature up at an incredible rate. A corresponding rapid increase in powerful methane global warming occurs. Methane also has regional positive warming properties that makes methane an exceptional global warming gas.   

Many of the other natural climate feedbacks that we either already observe today or expect to experience probably took place during the PETM warming, as well. Severe drought would have led to increased wildfires (such as would occur within Amazon), injecting more carbon into the atmosphere. Research shows that permafrost on a then glacier-free Antarctica thawed, which would have also released carbon dioxide and methane. Another interesting source of carbon that some scientists hypothesize is burning of peat and coal seams. Peat is decayed vegetation and has a very high carbon content that also releases methane. Peat, which is found in the soil beneath the surface, can be ignited by something like a wildfire and continue to smolder for as long as centuries. Coal seams can be ignited in a similar way, and burn for decades to centuries, releasing huge amounts of carbon into atmosphere.

252.28 million years ago -- Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within End-Permian Mass Extinction Period 252.28 Ma, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates (vented from volcanic Siberian Traps). However, within Modern Global Warming, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase during the beginning stages is ALSO about 15 times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved who depend upon potable water and global environment resources.

Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated End-Permian Mass Extinction, about which no one survives global warming temperature increase.

Interglacial Cycles -- Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels that are determined by changes of the sun’s relative position to earth orbit (described by Milankovitch Cycle orbital variations and occasional increased volcanic activity). A 1976 CE study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Milankovich's theory corresponded to periods of global warming and cooling.  

Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the earth was going through different stages of orbital variation. Resulting from current greenhouse gas emissions, “natural” earth temperature interglacial cooling cycle will not occur again for millions of years.  

Natural historical Earth interglacial cycles are ~100,000-year temperature cycles. Current Milankovitch Cycle is now driven by ~250 years of human hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) activity that produces human and natural greenhouse gas emissions. Today's human "climate increase" is about 100 times faster than Milankovitch Cycle "natural change."   

Modern Global Warming

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.  

Very huge deposits of Arctic Region methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and degradation of organic compound methane (CH4) (methane clathrate is about 85% natural gas). Methane is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period, taking aerosol impacts into account. If methane clathrate gun triggers due to warming Arctic Ocean currents, Earth’s temperature could rapidly rises tens of degrees.  

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), increased natural methane release, and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Not yet proposed are changes to global warming business as usual politics.  

In 1970s, U.S. nuclear energy facilities were capped to assure about 80% of electrical energy supplied would be from hydrocarbon energy. By 1980s, it was well known that global warming was a growing problem. In 1990s - 2010s, politics gamed global warming responses to increase profits from "green" alternatives to nuclear energy. Congressional responses to global warming temperature increase remain sidetracked for continued political and special interest corruption, payoffs, and political control of national and global hydrocarbon energy sectors. While reviewing global warming articles, care should be taken because there are many intentional deceptively written materials and presenters.   

Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction? Not without willing politicians and a great deal of time and material spent on nuclear clean energy investments between now and 2017 CE carbon infrastructure lock in of global carbon budget. Since there is no functioning organization or system (except for U.S. military and intelligence services) that is capable of directing necessary changeover to clean nuclear energy, most likely human races end date is 2050-2055 CE.  

The Global Warming Future

The future of global warming is grim. Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable response projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, increased rates of energy use, critical political decisions not made, increases in national high-energy GDPs, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, limited hydrologic energy development, water resources under developed, and too often proposed by untoward politicians and surrogates are impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics.

By 1866, resulting from the accumulations of a combination of natural and human greenhouse gases, global temperature increase produced a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends too soon past 2050 CE. All theories about the Modern Global Warming Era that are to the contrary to this presentation, and are not based upon acceptable supporting evidence, are falsehoods.

Note that transitions between fundamentally different regional and global climates can occur within only decades. Politicians most significantly increased global warming gases from the 1980s forward, when powerful world leaders assured that use of nuclear energy would be reduced and coal, oil, and natural gas energy economies would increase. Later, President Obama and left progressive Democrats' nuclear energy policy is to completely discontinue nuclear energy in favor of coal energy (with some natural gas increase). Left Democrats are active in retaining the U.S. economy dependent upon coal energy, imported OPEC oil energy, Chinese economic loans, and printing U.S. money. Within U.S. and Germany, nuclear energy was politically phased out while the 1992 CE alternatives to energy diversions were developed to enable politicians and their special interests to appear responsive to "climate change." Politicians talk the talk of climate change, but their political walk is to retain huge trillion dollar investments within multinational global warming hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas).

Global warming is on a political "business as usual" human hydrocarbon energy path and natural methane emissions path. For politicians global warming is a political game that is no more than a finding a way to keep their well paid jobs and win next elections. For human races, global warming is a life and death cause and effect response of the laws of physics.

Although politicians may have their way, Mother Nature has the last say. Politicians control national energies and human greenhouse gas emissions, but it is the laws of Mother Nature's physics that control global warming temperature increase. Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people post 2050 CE.

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE introduction of the Industrial Age, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE pre-industrial interglacial tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels was 280 ppm and methane peak level was 700 ppb. Current carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and are for methane ~1,850 ppb.

It took 260 years of Industrial Age greenhouse gas accumulations to get where we are. The global warming course is set; changes will be difficult, costly, and need to be timely; the longer the mitigation implementations are delayed the more difficult it becomes to change; the rate-of-change of global warming temperature increase is accelerating.

For more than 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear. By the 1970s U.S. hydroelectric energy development was phased out, promoting continued use of coal energy. Construction within public water right-of-ways prevented expansion of hydroelectric power. In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP), a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE, and economic employment patterns. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm limit and +2 C Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people. The U.S. produces 20 tons carbon per person. Therefore, the U.S. is either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races survival past 2050 CE .

The Arctic Sea is warming faster resulting from warmer freshwater flow, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice. Due to the Arctic Region positive warming feedback and methane hydrate-clathrate release, powerful global warming methane is becoming a more significant global warming force.   

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and a binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems, multinational political machines, and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance. Current "official" reporting reporting of global warming temperature increase leads to the destruction of the human races.   

A NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians economically locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also creating hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Curbing global warming involves preventing 2017 CE “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” In 2030-2040 CE, unless there are changes, the 450 ppm carbon limit and +2 C Limit is exceeded.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to help curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).   

Keep in mind that to prevent excessive global warming temperature increase involves global economies shifting from hydrocarbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas) to nuclear energy or the more limited hydroelectric energy, which involves trillions of dollars in economic exchanges. For that reason, implementing trillions of dollars of proper responses to global warming are politically unpopular, which introduces decades more delay to political responses. After delayed global warming responses are installed, Earth may respond decades later. Meanwhile, Mother Nature's environment and laws of physics responds with total disregard of politicians' reelection worries. Mother Nature's global warming mostly responds to global warming gas levels, and time.

Acts against humanity's survival are authorities ignoring or dismissing necessary timely implementation of corrections to global warming temperature-increase. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall soon die post 2050 CE, ending the 160 thousand year 'journey of mankind.'  

We live in a dynamic and changing world. Sometimes truth is more exciting and stranger than fiction. No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to direct global warming changes. While politicians oppose information dissemination about global warming, very few scientist have access to valid global warming modeling with projections; there is no public access to valid global warming modeling. No nation has projected the cause and effects of global warming. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many more centuries of global warming temperature increase. As it now stands, global warming temperature increase is a no win political "business as usual" scenario for human races.  

There may be solutions to the global warming temperature increase, we just have to identify and timely implement those solutions.  

"We travel together, passengers on a little spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" -Adlai Stevenson (D), U.N. Ambassador, 1965