Rev 01 Jan 2012
Scientists have declared that understanding natural methane release is a major priority. Money and people devoted to the issue natural methane are minimal compared with the risk of 2050-2099 Christian Era (CE) destruction of human races.
Experts have long known that northern Polar Regions were a land storehouse of frozen carbon, locked up in the form of leaves, roots and other organic matter trapped in icy soil — a mix that, when thawed, can produce methane and carbon dioxide, global warming gases that trap heat and warm the planet. In recent years scientist have come to realize just how much land organic debris there is. Not often mentioned is Polar sea methane deposits that have vastly greater stores of methane and carbon dioxide. The source of sea methane and carbon dioxide are frozen seabed deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas. More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. Both land and sea storage of methane are temperature dependent. As temperature increases, methane and carbon dioxide are released, which produces a localized temperature increase and more release of methane (a positive feedback loop). Sea methane clathrate deposits are both temperature and pressure dependent. A increase in temperature in shallow water releases more methane than in deeper water. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because its methane clathrate deposits are so shallow. Recent analyses suggest that the permafrost thaw could turn the Arctic into a net source of carbon (methane and carbon dioxide), possibly within a decade or two. Carbon that is 30,000 years old is defrosting and emerging at numerous spots around Fairbanks, Alaska, and carbon as old as 43,000 years emerging from lakes in Siberia, Soviet Union. If these carbon releases continue or increase, the “methane clathrate gun” is released. Reference: Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented,"
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Methane at 1,850 ppb is the highest it has ever been for more than 60 million years. Methane is a much more powerful global warming gas than is carbon dioxide. This high level of methane brings into doubt the survivability of 9 to 10 billion people.
Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.
**************
Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives anthropogenic energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels. From type and amount of energy used, there originates increased natural carbon and methane atmospheric levels. The 1750 CE Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) has accumulated massive amounts of gases over time. By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and anthropogenic GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as result of human activity. Scientists suggest that left unchecked Modern Global Warming accumulated natural and anthropomorphic warming forces will exceed carbon and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions. There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm carbon dioxide, much less above 450 ppm. It is very important to note that most natural methane levels and some natural carbon levels are atmospheric and ocean-current temperature dependent. The least-cost global warming option is to now lower Earth global warming and steadily transform global human energy systems over the coming decades to lower human GHG emissions and than lower to zero emissions.
Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years with a continued rise in temperature. A major difference between current global warming temperature increase event and 252.28 Ma End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.
We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming infrastructure lock-in point of no-return comes around 2017 CE. Under existing world leadership's covert carbon energy policies and opposition to conversion from carbon economies to nuclear energy, all human races shall be destroyed 2050-2099 CE. This means, no one under the current age of 30 survives global warming temperature increase.
Begun December 1989, the UN talks held since the 1992 ‘Earth Summit’ formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind. Catastrophic, irreversible “climate change” represents the gravest threat today to human civilization. Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate. Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade. In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory (“business as usual”). If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach. The consequences of exceeding global warming tripping points are very severe.
LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING - The political responses to global warming temperature increase have been decades of planned failures. No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. Because world leaders do not acknowledge global warming, the popular news media still does not recognize global warming temperature increase.
A GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE PLAN - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.
There are only three avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit the size of the human population rate of growth
By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.
Human and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations exceed critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts are abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and most important methane clathrates venting.
The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP 3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 CE in Kyoto, Japan, stipulates that developed countries collective greenhouse emissions should be reduce by 5.2% from 1990 CE levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012 CE), primarily through meeting their self imposed national targets. Recent research showed that global emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions increased by 75% between 1970 and 2004 CE to about 45,000 megaton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). The greenhouse gas reduction mission of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol has been a complete failure caused by too many indifferent world leaders who want their nations to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.
A Window of Opportunity Closes
Within the scientific community, there remains a long felt concern that unless global warming greenhouse gas emissions do not soon decline by 2020 CE, a window of opportunity closes. If, having missed the window of opportunity, Earth’s new temperature regulation establishes a stabilizing point that is an unlivable temperature increase prior to 2099 CE.
U.S. Government politics involving global warming (aka, Climate Change) has resulted in no government agency adequately identifying deep concerns about the accelerating progress of global warming temperature increase and resulting impacts upon the human life cycle. Nor has any global leader identified pending elimination of human races.
Contributing to the termination of the human race is a projected population expansion to 9 billion people that greatly exceeds the capacity of Earth to support at the current rate of per capita consumption increase (or GDP standard of living increase). Projected energy consumption per capita is increasing dramatically. The consequences of current 7 billion people, increased mechanized harvesting of Earth resources, and ineffective Earth resource management, adds to the concern that the human race will terminate within 2050-2099 CE.
It is astonishing (and disheartening) that world leaders and U.S. Congressional mismanagement is the fate of young adults and human races. The political understanding of the consequences of global warming temperature increase and the political understanding sciences of the Modern Global Warming Era are inadequate. Expected is that politics will continue “business as usual” increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Figure SPM.7) report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2099 CE. The amount of increased unmitigated anthropomorphic and natural greenhouse gas emissions determines the date of the temperature-threshold crossing +6.0 °C. Continuing “business as usual” human carbon energy greenhouse gas-increases result in Earth’s temperature crossing +6.0 °C temperatures 2050-2099 CE. However, if the Polar Regions’ methane clathrate gun explodes, the crossing of +6.0 °C occurs much sooner than current projections of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions.
Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic bacteria degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure. Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect. The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost. Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53 to 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization. In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.
When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees. The clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.” There is strong evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years; most notably in connection with the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma.
Runaway methane clathrate breakdown caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years. Continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead Modern Global Warming to changes that are ten times faster than End-Permian Mass Extinction.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped a massive amount of greenhouse gases (about 500 gigatons of carbon) into the atmosphere resulting in some releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in ocean marine sediments (potential 500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Polar Regions permafrost (potential 7.5 - 400 gigatons). Triggered by massive human carbon releases accumulations since 1750 and resulting massive increased methane releases, current rate of global temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of End-Permian Mass Extinction.
Earth today is experiencing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly changes from a Polar very cold and seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state. Mid-level latitude is very hot. There is no pause or slow temperature rise. Evolutionary transitions do not occur. “Adaption” does occur slowly for the 9 billion people inhabiting Earth. However, like slowly boiling a frog in a pot of water, the 9 billion people die within the 2050-2099 period.
Talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are “the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.” However, 1990s talks diverted from UNFCCC solving the global warming temperature increase crisis to that of politicians agreeing to the corruption of investors to build a large “alternative renewable energy” industry, shut down the Europe and U.S. nuclear industries, and the 2009 transfer-of-wealth of US$100 billion to “poor” nations’ leaders. Since 1992, world leaders have sold out to political special interest the ‘time necessary’ and ‘means available’ to correct global warming temperature increase.
In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting. “Businesses as usual” is the normal course of anthropomorphic and natural accelerating rate of global warming activity. In the 2000s, “business as usual” scenario reporting of greenhouse gas emissions lost out to the political opaqueness and diversions of building the “alternative renewable green energy” politics, bashing nuclear energy, and the politics of not reporting the important greenhouse gas methane. This political delay in responding to the global warming event may have placed us beyond ability to respond adequately to stopping global temperature increase. That is, we have exceeded too many critical trip points: methane/carbon greenhouse gas atmospheric considerations, aerosol density, soot density, intensity of carbon economies, public apathy, lacking capability of productive political response, to name a few trip points. Additionally, there remains a very strong campaign by those who want to continue fossil fuel economies and "business as usual." Scientific global warming story has not been powerful enough to offset political opposition to truth. Mitigation is the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something. Mitigation-funding necessary to stop global warming became global/national transfer of wealth schemes and “renewable energy” corruption. The real political purpose of “renewable energy” is to act as a public diversion and pay off the renewable energy investors while the politicians increase carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economies. The rest of the political global warming response is history. There is no global warming mitigation. The rate of global temperature increase is rapidly accelerating. The global warming path is clear - Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining climate at a livable level.
If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the +2.0°C target will slip out of reach:
Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts were abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and methane clathrates venting.
Carbon dioxide has unique long-term effects on climate change that are largely "irreversible" for thousands of years after emissions stop (zero further emissions). Even if carbon and methane emissions were to cease completely, current atmospheric temperatures increase will not decrease significantly. Warming seas release of methane trapped in sub-oceanic sediments and methane clathrates. Earth’s human races are long gone before methane fireballs tear across the Polar Region sky, causing further warming. If human and natural greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the model of global warming is similar to End-Permian Mass Extinction. Major differences between current global warming temperature increase event and End-Permian is that current temperature increase was caused by massive human energy use carbon emissions resulting from population growth from 1750 CE (that had ~900 million people) to a Modern Global Warming population of ~7 billion people. Additionally, beginning stages of current temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of the End-Permian Mass Extinction. Oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer. Deserts extend almost to the Arctic. "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which strip the land of soil. Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges. Life on Earth snuffed out as temperatures rise higher and than stabilizes for more than a hundred million years. Benign neglect of Earth’s Carbon/Methane Carbon Cycle produces stress on Earth of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures, which is evident. Human factors do not change to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reductions. The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy. “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity and is unmanageable on the larger scale. “Renewable” energy projects have a history of significant large amounts of corruption.
The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is continuation of persistent European-U.S. communist interests, carbon economy interests, “alternative renewable energy” interests, and anti-nuclear interest. Most certainly other global warming problems, but these listed interests are the largest manageable obstacle.
Commentary letters identifying some additional issues of global warming found at ‘Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”’:
This letter is the only public document that presents an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THESE BLOGGER ADDRESSES ALONG. Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase. The liberal media has stakes in maintaining the proper image of U.S. left Democrat and European leadership while the conservative media is too concerned about their ratings to discuss Modern Global Warming. Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming. Lacking a variety of reliable peer-reviewed scientific reporting of the Modern Global Warming era, too soon the global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable. It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming. If there is no U.S., German, and Global Energy Policy of 2012 CE that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099 CE.
Go to Blogger NUCLEAR 1/4
Scientists have declared that understanding natural methane release is a major priority. Money and people devoted to the issue natural methane are minimal compared with the risk of 2050-2099 Christian Era (CE) destruction of human races.
Experts have long known that northern Polar Regions were a land storehouse of frozen carbon, locked up in the form of leaves, roots and other organic matter trapped in icy soil — a mix that, when thawed, can produce methane and carbon dioxide, global warming gases that trap heat and warm the planet. In recent years scientist have come to realize just how much land organic debris there is. Not often mentioned is Polar sea methane deposits that have vastly greater stores of methane and carbon dioxide. The source of sea methane and carbon dioxide are frozen seabed deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas. More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. Both land and sea storage of methane are temperature dependent. As temperature increases, methane and carbon dioxide are released, which produces a localized temperature increase and more release of methane (a positive feedback loop). Sea methane clathrate deposits are both temperature and pressure dependent. A increase in temperature in shallow water releases more methane than in deeper water. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because its methane clathrate deposits are so shallow. Recent analyses suggest that the permafrost thaw could turn the Arctic into a net source of carbon (methane and carbon dioxide), possibly within a decade or two. Carbon that is 30,000 years old is defrosting and emerging at numerous spots around Fairbanks, Alaska, and carbon as old as 43,000 years emerging from lakes in Siberia, Soviet Union. If these carbon releases continue or increase, the “methane clathrate gun” is released. Reference: Blogger "Methane average of 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb) is unprecedented,"
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. Methane at 1,850 ppb is the highest it has ever been for more than 60 million years. Methane is a much more powerful global warming gas than is carbon dioxide. This high level of methane brings into doubt the survivability of 9 to 10 billion people.
Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.
**************
Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives anthropogenic energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels. From type and amount of energy used, there originates increased natural carbon and methane atmospheric levels. The 1750 CE Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) has accumulated massive amounts of gases over time. By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and anthropogenic GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as result of human activity. Scientists suggest that left unchecked Modern Global Warming accumulated natural and anthropomorphic warming forces will exceed carbon and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions. There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm carbon dioxide, much less above 450 ppm. It is very important to note that most natural methane levels and some natural carbon levels are atmospheric and ocean-current temperature dependent. The least-cost global warming option is to now lower Earth global warming and steadily transform global human energy systems over the coming decades to lower human GHG emissions and than lower to zero emissions.
Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years with a continued rise in temperature. A major difference between current global warming temperature increase event and 252.28 Ma End-Permian Mass Extinction is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian event and there are more than 9 billion people involved.
We are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming infrastructure lock-in point of no-return comes around 2017 CE. Under existing world leadership's covert carbon energy policies and opposition to conversion from carbon economies to nuclear energy, all human races shall be destroyed 2050-2099 CE. This means, no one under the current age of 30 survives global warming temperature increase.
Begun December 1989, the UN talks held since the 1992 ‘Earth Summit’ formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind. Catastrophic, irreversible “climate change” represents the gravest threat today to human civilization. Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate. Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade. In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory (“business as usual”). If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach. The consequences of exceeding global warming tripping points are very severe.
LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING - The political responses to global warming temperature increase have been decades of planned failures. No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. Because world leaders do not acknowledge global warming, the popular news media still does not recognize global warming temperature increase.
A GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE PLAN - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
No national leader has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to global warming temperature increase. Necessary planned responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people.
There are only three avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit the size of the human population rate of growth
By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.
Human and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations exceed critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts are abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and most important methane clathrates venting.
The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP 3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 CE in Kyoto, Japan, stipulates that developed countries collective greenhouse emissions should be reduce by 5.2% from 1990 CE levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012 CE), primarily through meeting their self imposed national targets. Recent research showed that global emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions increased by 75% between 1970 and 2004 CE to about 45,000 megaton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). The greenhouse gas reduction mission of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol has been a complete failure caused by too many indifferent world leaders who want their nations to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.
A Window of Opportunity Closes
Within the scientific community, there remains a long felt concern that unless global warming greenhouse gas emissions do not soon decline by 2020 CE, a window of opportunity closes. If, having missed the window of opportunity, Earth’s new temperature regulation establishes a stabilizing point that is an unlivable temperature increase prior to 2099 CE.
U.S. Government politics involving global warming (aka, Climate Change) has resulted in no government agency adequately identifying deep concerns about the accelerating progress of global warming temperature increase and resulting impacts upon the human life cycle. Nor has any global leader identified pending elimination of human races.
Contributing to the termination of the human race is a projected population expansion to 9 billion people that greatly exceeds the capacity of Earth to support at the current rate of per capita consumption increase (or GDP standard of living increase). Projected energy consumption per capita is increasing dramatically. The consequences of current 7 billion people, increased mechanized harvesting of Earth resources, and ineffective Earth resource management, adds to the concern that the human race will terminate within 2050-2099 CE.
It is astonishing (and disheartening) that world leaders and U.S. Congressional mismanagement is the fate of young adults and human races. The political understanding of the consequences of global warming temperature increase and the political understanding sciences of the Modern Global Warming Era are inadequate. Expected is that politics will continue “business as usual” increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Figure SPM.7) report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2099 CE. The amount of increased unmitigated anthropomorphic and natural greenhouse gas emissions determines the date of the temperature-threshold crossing +6.0 °C. Continuing “business as usual” human carbon energy greenhouse gas-increases result in Earth’s temperature crossing +6.0 °C temperatures 2050-2099 CE. However, if the Polar Regions’ methane clathrate gun explodes, the crossing of +6.0 °C occurs much sooner than current projections of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions.
Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic bacteria degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure. Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect. The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost. Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53 to 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization. In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.
When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees. The clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.” There is strong evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years; most notably in connection with the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma.
Runaway methane clathrate breakdown caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years. Continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead Modern Global Warming to changes that are ten times faster than End-Permian Mass Extinction.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped a massive amount of greenhouse gases (about 500 gigatons of carbon) into the atmosphere resulting in some releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in ocean marine sediments (potential 500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Polar Regions permafrost (potential 7.5 - 400 gigatons). Triggered by massive human carbon releases accumulations since 1750 and resulting massive increased methane releases, current rate of global temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of End-Permian Mass Extinction.
Earth today is experiencing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly changes from a Polar very cold and seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state. Mid-level latitude is very hot. There is no pause or slow temperature rise. Evolutionary transitions do not occur. “Adaption” does occur slowly for the 9 billion people inhabiting Earth. However, like slowly boiling a frog in a pot of water, the 9 billion people die within the 2050-2099 period.
Talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are “the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.” However, 1990s talks diverted from UNFCCC solving the global warming temperature increase crisis to that of politicians agreeing to the corruption of investors to build a large “alternative renewable energy” industry, shut down the Europe and U.S. nuclear industries, and the 2009 transfer-of-wealth of US$100 billion to “poor” nations’ leaders. Since 1992, world leaders have sold out to political special interest the ‘time necessary’ and ‘means available’ to correct global warming temperature increase.
In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting. “Businesses as usual” is the normal course of anthropomorphic and natural accelerating rate of global warming activity. In the 2000s, “business as usual” scenario reporting of greenhouse gas emissions lost out to the political opaqueness and diversions of building the “alternative renewable green energy” politics, bashing nuclear energy, and the politics of not reporting the important greenhouse gas methane. This political delay in responding to the global warming event may have placed us beyond ability to respond adequately to stopping global temperature increase. That is, we have exceeded too many critical trip points: methane/carbon greenhouse gas atmospheric considerations, aerosol density, soot density, intensity of carbon economies, public apathy, lacking capability of productive political response, to name a few trip points. Additionally, there remains a very strong campaign by those who want to continue fossil fuel economies and "business as usual." Scientific global warming story has not been powerful enough to offset political opposition to truth. Mitigation is the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or painfulness of something. Mitigation-funding necessary to stop global warming became global/national transfer of wealth schemes and “renewable energy” corruption. The real political purpose of “renewable energy” is to act as a public diversion and pay off the renewable energy investors while the politicians increase carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economies. The rest of the political global warming response is history. There is no global warming mitigation. The rate of global temperature increase is rapidly accelerating. The global warming path is clear - Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UNFCCC "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining climate at a livable level.
If emissions do not plateau by 2020 and rapidly decline thereafter, the +2.0°C target will slip out of reach:
● +2.0°C: Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020, in 2030-2040 Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature. World population reaches 8.7 billion by 2040 and exceeds 9 billion prior to 2050. Coral reefs almost extinct - In North America, a new dust bowl bring deserts to life in the high plains states, centered on Nebraska. In addition, wipes out agriculture and cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north. Major to massive dust storms sweep the Midwest.
Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas. In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages. Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics. Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction.
In the 20th century, sea has risen by an average of 2mm per year, but it is accelerating and over the last decades, the rise in sea level has gone approximately 70% faster. Even in the most optimistic scenario, which requires extremely dramatic climate change goals, major technological advances and strong international cooperation to stop emitting greenhouse gases and polluting the atmosphere, the sea would continue to rise. After now stop emitting greenhouse gases, by the year 2100 AD the sea will have raised by 60 cm (1.9 feet) and by the year 2500 AD the rise in sea level will be 1.8 meters (5.9 feet). For the two more realistic scenarios, calculated based on the emissions and pollution stabilizing, the results show that there will be a sea level rise of about 75 cm (2.5 feet) and that by the year 2500 AD the sea will have risen by 2 meters (6.6 feet). IPCC stated in AR4 that global warming should cause sea levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by 2100.
Warming Weather - Temperature, humidity, altitude, ocean currents, and pressure differences fuels the mid-latitude storms affect Earth’s most populated regions. Warmer temperatures increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere. The result is a hotter, more humid environment. At mid latitudes, conditions are hot and humid. At the poles the air is cold and dry; a little extra heat, water vapor, and regional methane clathrate breakdown raises temperatures greatly, remedial action becomes ineffectual.
Rain forest turns to desert - The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke. Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming. The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Polar bears, walruses and ringed seals all go extinct. Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away. Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa.
+4.0°C to +4.4°C: Scientists warn only one-tenth of the 2050 world’s people will survive. Of 9 billion people only 900 million survive this point, which is a number near that of the 1785 global population.
Melting ice caps displace millions - Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic put Siberian and Canada permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Global temperatures keep on rising rapidly in consequence. Melting ice caps and sea level rises displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece. More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia. Students now enrolled in schools and universities face this future:
WATER - Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes. Groundwater is increasingly over drafted and surface water is in very short supply.
ECOSYSTEMS – There are major extinctions around the globe. Food chain disruptions are widespread. Coral mortality is spreading. Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as ~40% of ecosystems affected. Surface and groundwater reserves are critically short of water.
FOOD - All production of cereals decrease. There is increased ocean acidification, increased water hypoxia, and decreased fish biomass.
COAST – There is increased damage from floods and storms, with about 30% loss of coastal wetlands. Additional 2 to 15 million people are at risk of coastal flooding each year. There is increased loss of groundwater storage capacity from saltwater inundation into coastal aquifers.
HEALTH – There are increased health burdens from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts. Substantial increased burden on health services.
SINGLE EVENTS - Long-term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss, leading to reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and inundation of low-lying areas. It is to be noted that the (<10%) likelihood in the 21st century Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) shutdown may still be significant given the high consequences of an abrupt shutdown. MOC shutdown includes adverse effects on food production and terrestrial vegetation, changes in fisheries and effects on oceanic carbon dioxide uptake and oceanic oxygen concentrations, an increased warming of southern hemisphere high latitudes and tropical drying. Weather change patterns are also associated with MOC and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) activity.
SOCIAL STABILITY – Society’s social structure will increasingly breakdown as life support systems break down under the demands of increased population, increased climate change, increased regional temperatures, decreased food supplies, and increased life support distribution issues.
+5.4°C: Rising sea levels in the coming centuries is perhaps one of the most catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures. Left unchanged, the sea levels rise by 5 meters (16.4 feet). “Business as usual” emissions produce a 1.1-meter (3.6 FEET) rise of sea level by 2099. Only a very small fraction of the 9-10 billion could continue to exist at the Polar Regions.
+6.0°C: Long-term effects on global warming “climate change” are largely "irreversible" for more than a million years.
Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Some resulting impacts were abrupt and irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the global warming temperature increase, climate change, human population impacts, energy use, and methane clathrates venting.
Carbon dioxide has unique long-term effects on climate change that are largely "irreversible" for thousands of years after emissions stop (zero further emissions). Even if carbon and methane emissions were to cease completely, current atmospheric temperatures increase will not decrease significantly. Warming seas release of methane trapped in sub-oceanic sediments and methane clathrates. Earth’s human races are long gone before methane fireballs tear across the Polar Region sky, causing further warming. If human and natural greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the model of global warming is similar to End-Permian Mass Extinction. Major differences between current global warming temperature increase event and End-Permian is that current temperature increase was caused by massive human energy use carbon emissions resulting from population growth from 1750 CE (that had ~900 million people) to a Modern Global Warming population of ~7 billion people. Additionally, beginning stages of current temperature increase is about 10 times faster than that of the End-Permian Mass Extinction. Oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer. Deserts extend almost to the Arctic. "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which strip the land of soil. Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges. Life on Earth snuffed out as temperatures rise higher and than stabilizes for more than a hundred million years. Benign neglect of Earth’s Carbon/Methane Carbon Cycle produces stress on Earth of increased populations, increased energy use, and resulting increased temperatures, which is evident. Human factors do not change to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reductions. The only temperature forcing effect that could make a difference is to expanded nuclear energy, as a replacement for coal, oil, and natural gas energy. “Renewable” energy has inadequate capacity and is unmanageable on the larger scale. “Renewable” energy projects have a history of significant large amounts of corruption.
The greatest obstacles to maintaining an Earth temperature level that can sustain human life is continuation of persistent European-U.S. communist interests, carbon economy interests, “alternative renewable energy” interests, and anti-nuclear interest. Most certainly other global warming problems, but these listed interests are the largest manageable obstacle.
Commentary letters identifying some additional issues of global warming found at ‘Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”’:
(3) Blogger “Global Warming PHYSICS Catastrophic Crisis”
This letter is the only public document that presents an overall true image of global warming temperature increase and the politics that is obstructing solutions, PASS THESE BLOGGER ADDRESSES ALONG. Please discuss with others and the news media as to their views on global warming temperature increase. The liberal media has stakes in maintaining the proper image of U.S. left Democrat and European leadership while the conservative media is too concerned about their ratings to discuss Modern Global Warming. Ask your local politicians as to their opinions concerning global warming. Lacking a variety of reliable peer-reviewed scientific reporting of the Modern Global Warming era, too soon the global warming temperature becomes committed to being unlivable. It is only through increased public awareness that politicians will change the course of global warming. If there is no U.S., German, and Global Energy Policy of 2012 CE that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099 CE.
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