By David G. Eselius
It is northern and southern Polar Region methane escapes into the atmosphere that determines if human races will be able to continue their existence.
Arctic research observations in 2003-2008 showed that the permafrost submerged on the Arctic shelf is perforated and leaking large amounts of carbon (CH4/CO2) into the atmosphere. Earlier Arctic studies in Siberia had focused on methane escaping from thawing permafrost on land.
Within Antarctica, southern Polar Region there is less methane research done than in northern Arctic Polar Region. However, the Palmer Deep located near the West Antarctic Peninsula, is an area experiencing ocean warming. Below 800 meter (2,625 feet) in the Palmer Deep, temperatures have been increasing at a rate of about 0.01°C (0.018°F) per year for almost 30 years.
There is no research regarding middle latitudes ocean water methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) releases. Because carbon dioxide has a lesser global heating potential than methane, there is lesser concern for increasing carbon dioxide levels from sea-bed/land permafrost.
Long-term records of near-surface permafrost temperature, obtained from different parts of the permafrost zone in northern regions, show a significant warming trend during the last 30 years.
Permafrost-ground is permanently frozen. For example, in Fairbanks, Alaska, the frozen soil is just some 30 to 40 centimeters below the surface. In fact, the frozen ground has been that way since before the start of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refers to a period between 26,500 and 19,000–20,000 years ago when ice sheets were at their maximum extension, marking the peak of the last glacial period. During this time, vast ice sheets covered much of North America, northern Europe, and Asia. These ice sheets profoundly impacted Earth's climate, causing drought, desertification, and a dramatic drop in sea levels.
● Reference: The Interglacial 1-1.5 °C zone of “Atmospheric CO2 with glaciers cycles.gif” LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atmospheric_CO2_with_glaciers_cycles.gif
● Reference: The Interglacial 1-1.5 °C zone of “650,000 year CO2, NH4, and Temperature” graph LINK: http://www.realclimate.org/epica.jpg%20%20
When the carbon dioxide (CO2) is below 230-ppm within an interglacial cycle, the cooling cycle is defined. Below CO2, 230-ppm ice sheets expand causing ocean surface levels to fall. When the CO2 level is above 230-ppm, the sea level rises. Over 60 million years of approximate 100,000-year interglacial cycles, the amount of sea level rise and fall is net zero.
Massive ice sheets covered parts of North America, northern Europe, and several other regions during the last ice age. The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age occurring during the last years of the Pleistocene, from approximately 110,000 to 10,000 before present (BP).
This huge volume of ice lowered global sea level by around 120 meters (393 feet) as compared to today. After the ice, sheets began to melt and retreat, sea level rose rapidly, with several periods of four fast spurts over the last 19,000 years. These sea level rises are termed "meltwater pulses" (MWP). The first MWP-1Ao started about 19,000 years BP. A more clearly defined accelerated phase of sea level rise occurred 14,600 to 13,500 BP (or MWP-1A), to be succeeded by another surge (MWP-1B), 11,500-11,000 BP, when sea level may have jumped by 28 meters (92 feet). A fourth interval of rapid sea level rise 8200-7600 BP was first identified by a hiatus in coral growth in the Caribbean to be about 7600 BP (MWP-1C). By the mid-Holocene period, 6000-5000 BP, glacial melting had essentially ceased, while ongoing adjustments of Earth's lithosphere due to removal of the ice sheets gradually decreased over time. Similar MWPs have occurred cyclically for more than 60 million years within an average temperature-variance zone of 1-1.5°C (1.8-2.7°F). Earth is +08°C above the more than 60 million year high temperatures. Over the last 30 years, ice sheet melting has again accelerated. Reference: “Sea Level Rise, After the Ice Melted and Today” LINK: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/
Over the last 160,000 years human civilization developed. Ice melt and meltwater pulses were part of that history. LINK: Bradshaw Foundation “Journey of Mankind” http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/
Only the upper 30 to 100 cm of permafrost soil (called the active layer) thaws every summer and then completely refreezes during the winter. Typical thickness of permafrost around Fairbanks is about 50 meters, but varies between a few meters, 150 meters, and more. Permafrost gets colder and thicker northward. On the Alaskan Arctic Plain, permafrost could be as cold as -9 to -11°C cold and up to 650 meters thick. Reference: “Arctic Change Land-Permafrost” LINK: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-permafrost.shtml
When permafrost degrades (melts), there are impacts on drainage, ground water, river runoffs, ecological systems (such as plants and ponds), and release of sequestered carbon (CO2/CH4) in the frozen soil, and infrastructure (such as houses, roads, airports, pipelines, and other facilities based on permafrost).
Average temperature during the year is the most important factor for permafrost existence. Permafrost temperatures at 1 meter (3.2 feet) below ground in central Alaska have been warming since the 1960s. Alaska permafrost reaching near to the melting point occurred in the mid-1990s. The rate of release of sequestered carbon (CO2/CH4) has increased.
Some 2009 estimates indicate that by 2100 thawing sea-bed/land permafrost could boost emissions of the potent greenhouse gases 20 to 40+ percent beyond all natural and human sources.
The only realistic way to slow the ocean/land permafrost thaw is for humankind to limit global warming by reducing human carbon dioxide emissions. The only timely way to reduce human carbon dioxide emissions is expand rapidly global nuclear energy facilities, thus reducing human use of carbon coal, oil, and natural gas.
Previously Northern Hemisphere wetlands considered as large carbon (CO2/CH4) sources were Siberian, Canada, and Alaska. It is unknown how much methane Arctic Polar Region land/ocean permafrost contributes to global warming temperature increase, but it is significant.
The Arctic Ocean is 14,056,000 sq-km (542,705 sq-miles). Arctic Polar Region of land permafrost area is huge, but it is contracting due to global warming. As a reference, the area of contiguous United States 48 U.S. states is 8,080,464 sq-km (3,119,885 sq-miles).
The Arctic Ocean East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean. It is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands.
Positive-Feedback Loop - Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon (CO2/CH4), and experts are concerned that its release as clathrates methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric and water temperatures, thus creating a positive-feedback loop that leads to more methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) escaping from the ocean/land permafrost and more global warming. Reference: National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) “Feedback Loops” LINK: http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/feedback_loops.html
In 2008, more than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. Warmer atmospheric and water temperatures create greater methane releases.
Global Warming Models - The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is a greater concern because the shelf is so shallow. In deep water, methane (CH4) gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide (CO2) before it reaches the surface and the atmosphere. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the greater warming potential methane (CH4) simply does not have enough time to oxidize into lesser warming potential carbon dioxide (CO2), which means more methane (CH4) escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane clathrate in the region, would add a previously non-calculated variable of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) warming to existing global warming models.
Increased ocean methane releases result in methane becoming the driving force for global warming temperature increase.
Geological interglacial records of more than 60 million years indicate that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about 300 to 400 parts per BILLION (ppb) during cold periods, and varied to 600 to 700 ppb during warm periods. Existing global methane average of 1,850 ppb is unprecedented. In fact, methane levels this high never before have occurred during the history of multi-cell organic life on Earth.
GWP - The global warming potential (GWP) is a standard statement that considers the global warming effects over defined times. Carbon GWP is one. Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon) for Methane (CH4): For 20 years, GWP is 56, for 100 years GWP is 21, and for 500 years GWP is 6.5. However, recent evidence identifies methane GWP for 20 years as 72 (i.e. methane has a greater Earth warming potential than previously thought). Stated GWP Data Source: IPCC Climate Change 1995, “The Science of Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers” and “Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report,” page 22.
Currently, GWP for methane includes indirect effects of tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric water vapor production for 1995. New stratosphere greenhouse data indicates a need for recalculation of methane GWP properties.
Methane clathrate stability-state decrease is primarily a function of temperature-increase and/or pressure-decrease. Within the Arctic Ocean (and all oceans), methane clathrate stability is mostly temperature sensitive. In order to alter clathrate stability-state, it is necessary to reduce ocean and atmosphere temperatures.
Researchers warn that the release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the Arctic shelf could trigger abrupt and rapid global warming. When methane clathrate further destabilizes, the methane emissions would be significantly larger, resulting in increased significant north-south polar positive feedback loop warming and significant increased global warming temperature increase.
The frozen methane clathrate cap trapping billions of tonnes of methane under the cold waters of the Arctic Ocean is leaking and venting the powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, 2003-2008 researchers Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov identified.
This report states, “Global feedbacks already arising from arctic climate change suggest that anything but the most ambitious constraints on greenhouse gas concentrations may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system."
Subsea methane emissions are not new but have been underway for some time. Shakhova's estimate of eight million tonnes of methane emissions needs verification because it is a very important set of data. Arctic subsea methane studies are in the March 5, 2010 edition of the journal Science.
Methane concentrations measured over the oceans are currently about 0.6 to 0.7 parts per MILLION (ppm), but they are now 1.85 in the Arctic Ocean generally, and between 2.6 and 8.2 ppm in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, an area roughly two million square kilometers in size. (Remember, "Geological interglacial records of more than 60 million years indicate that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about 300 to 400 parts per BILLION (ppb) during cold periods, and varied to 600 to 700 ppb during warm periods.")
In the last few years, researchers have been shocked to see Arctic Ocean in places "methane boil" as gases from deep below come bubbling to the surface. Large parts of the Arctic Ocean floor along coastal areas is actually permafrost that was flooded thousands of years ago after the big melt from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice age have begun to warm above the interglacial 1-1.5°C zone. For the past 30 years, methane not previously released for millions of years, is now "methane boiling."
Surface temperatures over much of the Arctic landscape and the Siberian landscape, particularly in summer; have jumped 6°C to 10°C above normal in recent years. That has lead to a massive increase in the flows of the many rivers that terminate in the Arctic Ocean. Antarctica surface temperatures are also many degrees C above normal in recent years.
Natalia Shakhova and colleagues believe this substantial increase of warmer water into the shallow East Siberian Shelf has accelerated the melting of the subsea permafrost, in effect fracturing the frozen cap and allowing methane to escape into the atmosphere. "Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," she said in a release.
"If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrammes, it would be significantly larger," she said. (A teragramme is a trillion grams, or one million tonnes.)
Methane (CH4) as frozen in permafrost or under the sea are commonly called methane clathrates (hydrates), which is approximately 25 times more potent than greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2). Total ocean methane clathrate volumes are unknown.
"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to three to four times," Shakhova said in a release.
"The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict," she said.
Natalia Shakhova's study is just one of at least a dozen others that clearly show the Arctic region is not only melting but also emitting more carbon and methane.
Other than a perceived political need of remaining dependent upon carbon economies, it is difficult to understand why the dammed world leaders intentionally ignore the world peril of increased greenhouse gases and global temperature increase. Without their cooperation, there is no hope of stopping global warming temperature increase.
Average temperature increase above preindustrial times (pre-1750 AD) is currently only +0.8°C (1.4°F) above high interglacial zone temperature of 1-1.5°C (1.8-2.7°F). Additional increased temperature change of a few tenths of a degree will increase enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide.
Resulting from political delays, the speed of the rapid increased methane and carbon dioxide concentration increase within the atmosphere brings the conclusion that global warming goals such as the +2°C goal (or +1.5°C goal) have now become a very, very ambitious goal to achieve, but are not impossible.
For +2°C goal considerations see EU’s "The 2°C target" LINK: NOTE: Due to ongoing untoward world leader suppression of critical global warming information, the link to EU’s paper on "The 2°C target" is no longer available.
Falsifying UN and government department global warming public information by untoward world leaders and political Czars remain standard practice since the 1990s. With U.S. President Obama in office, control of media reporting of global warming is mandatory. The problem of information manipulation has gotten bigger with the internet. Many with an ax to grind do internet hacking of websites. Before, within the 1990s, untoward world leaders settled for manipulation official UN IPCC reporting.
In 1996, EU Governments established the +2°C limit. The Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007, reaffirmed the limit since then. The paper also identifies how through global action this +2°C limit target is achievable. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and many nations have often endorsed the 2°C limit.
Subsequent to the rise of world leaders support of the Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement, world leaders have been able to internet suppress much important global warming information. Such politicians and supporters are evil.
For now, Docs Google still provides a quick view of EU Climate Change Expert Group 'EG Science' international reference document "The 2°C target."
CONCLUSION
Polar Regions are warming. Scientists are concerned that land and undersea Polar Region permafrost "has been showing signs of destabilization already.” A 2008 East Siberian Arctic Shelf discovery report reveals large but overlooked sources of methane gas escaping from permafrost underwater.
The warming of air and ocean has a positive-feedback effect on atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in that the ocean's extensive methane clathrates (hydrate) ice in the sediments amplify global warming temperature increase. The methane ice melts, methane boil off occurs, resulting in a positive feedback and a global temperature increase. This places considerable additional upward pressure on the sudden temperature rise. Present day methane deposits contain more energy than all other global fossil fuels of wood, oil, coal, and natural gas combined. Release of methane gases above interglacial “normal” can be very catastrophic.
Without the help of world leaders who rapidly provide adequate global warming mitigation response, global temperature exceeds +2°C in 2030 AD - 2040 AD. Prior to 2099 AD global temperatures, exceeds life terminated +6°C.
When the Vietnam Era neo communists joined with environmental green movement, overt and covert political pressure developed opposing enacting global warming mitigation. The 1990s to current management of global warming responses was under the control of world leaders who want to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas. Untoward political forces of immediate needs replaced the 1990’s human races right to continued existence.
Neo communists and anti nuclear politics joined to oppose nuclear energy. Increased was UN and national transfer of wealth frauds involving “green energy,” “renewable energy,” carbon tax corruption, and dividing the world into countries of wealth vs. countries of need. Support from world leaders and socialists who desire to retain carbon economies allowed the neo communist green political movement growth.
During Senator Obama’s 2007-2008 election campaign tours of Europe, the U.S. and European Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement unified and organized. Pro carbon economies world leaders and Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement now control the fate of human races.
The 2009 primary mission of UN global warming mitigation transformed and became “renewable energy,” carbon credit corruption, and projects for transfer of wealth from countries of wealth to countries of need. Open politicalization (i.e., to influence by politicians and use of governmental agencies) of national and UN global warming wealth-transfer schemes signaled the start of ongoing suppression of objective global warming media reporting.
Political movements to terminate human races 2050-2099 are now established, and unlikely to change in time to prevent foreseeable catastrophic events.
There is much to learn about global warming, and so little time and few resources devoted by politicians to saving human races. There is a growing problem of global warming temperature increase and resulting massive environmental devastation. Global warming is real and politicians are killing our planet a little more every day.
The world is a very small place and we have not been good stewards. Global warming is a symptom of this poor stewardship. Consequently, unless there are changes soon and if you are under thirty years of age, global warming temperature increase 2050-2099 will terminate you. Mother Nature has been telling us for more than 100 years, "You make a serious effort to stop global warming or you will all die. There really isn't much else to say."
It is northern and southern Polar Region methane escapes into the atmosphere that determines if human races will be able to continue their existence.
Arctic research observations in 2003-2008 showed that the permafrost submerged on the Arctic shelf is perforated and leaking large amounts of carbon (CH4/CO2) into the atmosphere. Earlier Arctic studies in Siberia had focused on methane escaping from thawing permafrost on land.
Within Antarctica, southern Polar Region there is less methane research done than in northern Arctic Polar Region. However, the Palmer Deep located near the West Antarctic Peninsula, is an area experiencing ocean warming. Below 800 meter (2,625 feet) in the Palmer Deep, temperatures have been increasing at a rate of about 0.01°C (0.018°F) per year for almost 30 years.
There is no research regarding middle latitudes ocean water methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) releases. Because carbon dioxide has a lesser global heating potential than methane, there is lesser concern for increasing carbon dioxide levels from sea-bed/land permafrost.
Long-term records of near-surface permafrost temperature, obtained from different parts of the permafrost zone in northern regions, show a significant warming trend during the last 30 years.
Permafrost-ground is permanently frozen. For example, in Fairbanks, Alaska, the frozen soil is just some 30 to 40 centimeters below the surface. In fact, the frozen ground has been that way since before the start of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refers to a period between 26,500 and 19,000–20,000 years ago when ice sheets were at their maximum extension, marking the peak of the last glacial period. During this time, vast ice sheets covered much of North America, northern Europe, and Asia. These ice sheets profoundly impacted Earth's climate, causing drought, desertification, and a dramatic drop in sea levels.
● Reference: The Interglacial 1-1.5 °C zone of “Atmospheric CO2 with glaciers cycles.gif” LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atmospheric_CO2_with_glaciers_cycles.gif
● Reference: The Interglacial 1-1.5 °C zone of “650,000 year CO2, NH4, and Temperature” graph LINK: http://www.realclimate.org/epica.jpg%20%20
When the carbon dioxide (CO2) is below 230-ppm within an interglacial cycle, the cooling cycle is defined. Below CO2, 230-ppm ice sheets expand causing ocean surface levels to fall. When the CO2 level is above 230-ppm, the sea level rises. Over 60 million years of approximate 100,000-year interglacial cycles, the amount of sea level rise and fall is net zero.
Massive ice sheets covered parts of North America, northern Europe, and several other regions during the last ice age. The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age occurring during the last years of the Pleistocene, from approximately 110,000 to 10,000 before present (BP).
This huge volume of ice lowered global sea level by around 120 meters (393 feet) as compared to today. After the ice, sheets began to melt and retreat, sea level rose rapidly, with several periods of four fast spurts over the last 19,000 years. These sea level rises are termed "meltwater pulses" (MWP). The first MWP-1Ao started about 19,000 years BP. A more clearly defined accelerated phase of sea level rise occurred 14,600 to 13,500 BP (or MWP-1A), to be succeeded by another surge (MWP-1B), 11,500-11,000 BP, when sea level may have jumped by 28 meters (92 feet). A fourth interval of rapid sea level rise 8200-7600 BP was first identified by a hiatus in coral growth in the Caribbean to be about 7600 BP (MWP-1C). By the mid-Holocene period, 6000-5000 BP, glacial melting had essentially ceased, while ongoing adjustments of Earth's lithosphere due to removal of the ice sheets gradually decreased over time. Similar MWPs have occurred cyclically for more than 60 million years within an average temperature-variance zone of 1-1.5°C (1.8-2.7°F). Earth is +08°C above the more than 60 million year high temperatures. Over the last 30 years, ice sheet melting has again accelerated. Reference: “Sea Level Rise, After the Ice Melted and Today” LINK: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/
Over the last 160,000 years human civilization developed. Ice melt and meltwater pulses were part of that history. LINK: Bradshaw Foundation “Journey of Mankind” http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/
Only the upper 30 to 100 cm of permafrost soil (called the active layer) thaws every summer and then completely refreezes during the winter. Typical thickness of permafrost around Fairbanks is about 50 meters, but varies between a few meters, 150 meters, and more. Permafrost gets colder and thicker northward. On the Alaskan Arctic Plain, permafrost could be as cold as -9 to -11°C cold and up to 650 meters thick. Reference: “Arctic Change Land-Permafrost” LINK: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-permafrost.shtml
When permafrost degrades (melts), there are impacts on drainage, ground water, river runoffs, ecological systems (such as plants and ponds), and release of sequestered carbon (CO2/CH4) in the frozen soil, and infrastructure (such as houses, roads, airports, pipelines, and other facilities based on permafrost).
Average temperature during the year is the most important factor for permafrost existence. Permafrost temperatures at 1 meter (3.2 feet) below ground in central Alaska have been warming since the 1960s. Alaska permafrost reaching near to the melting point occurred in the mid-1990s. The rate of release of sequestered carbon (CO2/CH4) has increased.
Some 2009 estimates indicate that by 2100 thawing sea-bed/land permafrost could boost emissions of the potent greenhouse gases 20 to 40+ percent beyond all natural and human sources.
The only realistic way to slow the ocean/land permafrost thaw is for humankind to limit global warming by reducing human carbon dioxide emissions. The only timely way to reduce human carbon dioxide emissions is expand rapidly global nuclear energy facilities, thus reducing human use of carbon coal, oil, and natural gas.
Previously Northern Hemisphere wetlands considered as large carbon (CO2/CH4) sources were Siberian, Canada, and Alaska. It is unknown how much methane Arctic Polar Region land/ocean permafrost contributes to global warming temperature increase, but it is significant.
The Arctic Ocean is 14,056,000 sq-km (542,705 sq-miles). Arctic Polar Region of land permafrost area is huge, but it is contracting due to global warming. As a reference, the area of contiguous United States 48 U.S. states is 8,080,464 sq-km (3,119,885 sq-miles).
The Arctic Ocean East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean. It is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands.
Positive-Feedback Loop - Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon (CO2/CH4), and experts are concerned that its release as clathrates methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric and water temperatures, thus creating a positive-feedback loop that leads to more methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) escaping from the ocean/land permafrost and more global warming. Reference: National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) “Feedback Loops” LINK: http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/feedback_loops.html
In 2008, more than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. Warmer atmospheric and water temperatures create greater methane releases.
Global Warming Models - The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is a greater concern because the shelf is so shallow. In deep water, methane (CH4) gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide (CO2) before it reaches the surface and the atmosphere. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the greater warming potential methane (CH4) simply does not have enough time to oxidize into lesser warming potential carbon dioxide (CO2), which means more methane (CH4) escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane clathrate in the region, would add a previously non-calculated variable of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) warming to existing global warming models.
Increased ocean methane releases result in methane becoming the driving force for global warming temperature increase.
Geological interglacial records of more than 60 million years indicate that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about 300 to 400 parts per BILLION (ppb) during cold periods, and varied to 600 to 700 ppb during warm periods. Existing global methane average of 1,850 ppb is unprecedented. In fact, methane levels this high never before have occurred during the history of multi-cell organic life on Earth.
GWP - The global warming potential (GWP) is a standard statement that considers the global warming effects over defined times. Carbon GWP is one. Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon) for Methane (CH4): For 20 years, GWP is 56, for 100 years GWP is 21, and for 500 years GWP is 6.5. However, recent evidence identifies methane GWP for 20 years as 72 (i.e. methane has a greater Earth warming potential than previously thought). Stated GWP Data Source: IPCC Climate Change 1995, “The Science of Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers” and “Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report,” page 22.
Currently, GWP for methane includes indirect effects of tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric water vapor production for 1995. New stratosphere greenhouse data indicates a need for recalculation of methane GWP properties.
Methane clathrate stability-state decrease is primarily a function of temperature-increase and/or pressure-decrease. Within the Arctic Ocean (and all oceans), methane clathrate stability is mostly temperature sensitive. In order to alter clathrate stability-state, it is necessary to reduce ocean and atmosphere temperatures.
Researchers warn that the release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the Arctic shelf could trigger abrupt and rapid global warming. When methane clathrate further destabilizes, the methane emissions would be significantly larger, resulting in increased significant north-south polar positive feedback loop warming and significant increased global warming temperature increase.
The frozen methane clathrate cap trapping billions of tonnes of methane under the cold waters of the Arctic Ocean is leaking and venting the powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, 2003-2008 researchers Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov identified.
This report states, “Global feedbacks already arising from arctic climate change suggest that anything but the most ambitious constraints on greenhouse gas concentrations may not be sufficient to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system."
Subsea methane emissions are not new but have been underway for some time. Shakhova's estimate of eight million tonnes of methane emissions needs verification because it is a very important set of data. Arctic subsea methane studies are in the March 5, 2010 edition of the journal Science.
Methane concentrations measured over the oceans are currently about 0.6 to 0.7 parts per MILLION (ppm), but they are now 1.85 in the Arctic Ocean generally, and between 2.6 and 8.2 ppm in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, an area roughly two million square kilometers in size. (Remember, "Geological interglacial records of more than 60 million years indicate that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about 300 to 400 parts per BILLION (ppb) during cold periods, and varied to 600 to 700 ppb during warm periods.")
In the last few years, researchers have been shocked to see Arctic Ocean in places "methane boil" as gases from deep below come bubbling to the surface. Large parts of the Arctic Ocean floor along coastal areas is actually permafrost that was flooded thousands of years ago after the big melt from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice age have begun to warm above the interglacial 1-1.5°C zone. For the past 30 years, methane not previously released for millions of years, is now "methane boiling."
Surface temperatures over much of the Arctic landscape and the Siberian landscape, particularly in summer; have jumped 6°C to 10°C above normal in recent years. That has lead to a massive increase in the flows of the many rivers that terminate in the Arctic Ocean. Antarctica surface temperatures are also many degrees C above normal in recent years.
Natalia Shakhova and colleagues believe this substantial increase of warmer water into the shallow East Siberian Shelf has accelerated the melting of the subsea permafrost, in effect fracturing the frozen cap and allowing methane to escape into the atmosphere. "Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," she said in a release.
"If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrammes, it would be significantly larger," she said. (A teragramme is a trillion grams, or one million tonnes.)
Methane (CH4) as frozen in permafrost or under the sea are commonly called methane clathrates (hydrates), which is approximately 25 times more potent than greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2). Total ocean methane clathrate volumes are unknown.
"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to three to four times," Shakhova said in a release.
"The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict," she said.
Natalia Shakhova's study is just one of at least a dozen others that clearly show the Arctic region is not only melting but also emitting more carbon and methane.
Other than a perceived political need of remaining dependent upon carbon economies, it is difficult to understand why the dammed world leaders intentionally ignore the world peril of increased greenhouse gases and global temperature increase. Without their cooperation, there is no hope of stopping global warming temperature increase.
Average temperature increase above preindustrial times (pre-1750 AD) is currently only +0.8°C (1.4°F) above high interglacial zone temperature of 1-1.5°C (1.8-2.7°F). Additional increased temperature change of a few tenths of a degree will increase enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide.
Resulting from political delays, the speed of the rapid increased methane and carbon dioxide concentration increase within the atmosphere brings the conclusion that global warming goals such as the +2°C goal (or +1.5°C goal) have now become a very, very ambitious goal to achieve, but are not impossible.
For +2°C goal considerations see EU’s "The 2°C target" LINK: NOTE: Due to ongoing untoward world leader suppression of critical global warming information, the link to EU’s paper on "The 2°C target" is no longer available.
Falsifying UN and government department global warming public information by untoward world leaders and political Czars remain standard practice since the 1990s. With U.S. President Obama in office, control of media reporting of global warming is mandatory. The problem of information manipulation has gotten bigger with the internet. Many with an ax to grind do internet hacking of websites. Before, within the 1990s, untoward world leaders settled for manipulation official UN IPCC reporting.
In 1996, EU Governments established the +2°C limit. The Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007, reaffirmed the limit since then. The paper also identifies how through global action this +2°C limit target is achievable. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and many nations have often endorsed the 2°C limit.
Subsequent to the rise of world leaders support of the Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement, world leaders have been able to internet suppress much important global warming information. Such politicians and supporters are evil.
For now, Docs Google still provides a quick view of EU Climate Change Expert Group 'EG Science' international reference document "The 2°C target."
CONCLUSION
Polar Regions are warming. Scientists are concerned that land and undersea Polar Region permafrost "has been showing signs of destabilization already.” A 2008 East Siberian Arctic Shelf discovery report reveals large but overlooked sources of methane gas escaping from permafrost underwater.
The warming of air and ocean has a positive-feedback effect on atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in that the ocean's extensive methane clathrates (hydrate) ice in the sediments amplify global warming temperature increase. The methane ice melts, methane boil off occurs, resulting in a positive feedback and a global temperature increase. This places considerable additional upward pressure on the sudden temperature rise. Present day methane deposits contain more energy than all other global fossil fuels of wood, oil, coal, and natural gas combined. Release of methane gases above interglacial “normal” can be very catastrophic.
Without the help of world leaders who rapidly provide adequate global warming mitigation response, global temperature exceeds +2°C in 2030 AD - 2040 AD. Prior to 2099 AD global temperatures, exceeds life terminated +6°C.
When the Vietnam Era neo communists joined with environmental green movement, overt and covert political pressure developed opposing enacting global warming mitigation. The 1990s to current management of global warming responses was under the control of world leaders who want to remain dependent upon carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas. Untoward political forces of immediate needs replaced the 1990’s human races right to continued existence.
Neo communists and anti nuclear politics joined to oppose nuclear energy. Increased was UN and national transfer of wealth frauds involving “green energy,” “renewable energy,” carbon tax corruption, and dividing the world into countries of wealth vs. countries of need. Support from world leaders and socialists who desire to retain carbon economies allowed the neo communist green political movement growth.
During Senator Obama’s 2007-2008 election campaign tours of Europe, the U.S. and European Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement unified and organized. Pro carbon economies world leaders and Euro-U.S. Green Neo Communist movement now control the fate of human races.
The 2009 primary mission of UN global warming mitigation transformed and became “renewable energy,” carbon credit corruption, and projects for transfer of wealth from countries of wealth to countries of need. Open politicalization (i.e., to influence by politicians and use of governmental agencies) of national and UN global warming wealth-transfer schemes signaled the start of ongoing suppression of objective global warming media reporting.
Political movements to terminate human races 2050-2099 are now established, and unlikely to change in time to prevent foreseeable catastrophic events.
There is much to learn about global warming, and so little time and few resources devoted by politicians to saving human races. There is a growing problem of global warming temperature increase and resulting massive environmental devastation. Global warming is real and politicians are killing our planet a little more every day.
The world is a very small place and we have not been good stewards. Global warming is a symptom of this poor stewardship. Consequently, unless there are changes soon and if you are under thirty years of age, global warming temperature increase 2050-2099 will terminate you. Mother Nature has been telling us for more than 100 years, "You make a serious effort to stop global warming or you will all die. There really isn't much else to say."
