Human Race Lifespan: zero-years to 40-years

James Watt developed (1763–75) an improved version of Newcomen's engine, with a separate condenser. Watt's engine used 75% less coal than Newcomen's, and was hence much cheaper to run. 1750 CE is the start of the Industrial Revolution. The greenhouses gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), since the industrial period began in earnest (around the mid-1800s) concentrations of both carbon dioxide and methane have been rapidly increasing.

In fact, methane concentrations have more than doubled over the last 150 years.

Methane is a powerful global warming gas. In the early transitional period of natural methane release the molecules of methane can produce a global warming effect that is more than a hundred times greater than that of carbon dioxide molecules. Methane (or natural gas) is a very powerful global warming gas that has been underreported for political reasons of corruption.  

Ambient pre industrial times is 1750 CE. Modern Global Warming Era concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Methane plays a significant part of recent global warming temperature increase -- methane's contribution to enhanced greenhouse effect is almost half of that due to hydrocarbon carbon dioxide increases over the last 150 years.

Thirty six years ago, in 1976, methane in the atmosphere was identified as a significant greenhouse gas. By 2001 CE U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported large parts of multiple chapters are dedicated to examining the sources, sinks, chemistry, history and potential global warming future of methane. After 2001 CE, and with strong covert political encroachment upon the technical reporting of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs), untoward groups and politicians for reasons of money, power, greed, and corruption have promoted "renewable energy" and carbon trading within the European-U.S. market sectors. There was further destruction of the validity of IPCC reporting; successful blocking of hydrocarbon emission reductions; Euro-U.S. politicians increased nuclear clean energy dismantling; construction of hydrocarbon-use infrastructure increased; multinational coal production is increased; attempted disruption of U.S. domestic oil supplies; while a greater "renewable energy" distraction masks the course of human life destruction 2050-2055 CE.  

At issue is the accelerating use-rate of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) with its release of carbon dioxide and the accelerating temperature-rate release of methane within the Arctic Region. The rate of global warming temperature increase is a result of combination of methane and carbon dioxide gases increases. Mother Nature has issued her last warning: Unless natural and human global warming gases peak this decade and thereafter decline, successful mitigation of global warming is very much in doubt.             

The global warming potential (GWP) methane within decomposed methane clathrates is very greatly more than that of carbon dioxide. Some key facts about methane clathrates (aka, methane hydrates) make them particularly interesting to climatologists. First, they may make up a significant portion of total fossil carbon reserves, including coal, oil, and natural gas. Current best guesses suggest that maybe 500 to 2,000 gigatonnes of carbon may be stored as methane clathrates (5-20% of estimated total fossil carbon reserves). Some estimates are as high as 10,000 gigatonnes of methane clathrates fossil carbon reserves. Methane clathrates occur mainly on the Arctic continental shelves where surface to mid water temperature is sufficiently cold, there is increased water pressure, and there exists enough organic carbon material (ie, coal, oil, natural gas leaks) to keep the methane-producing bacteria happy and in suspension for the last 50 million plus years, until now. Now, Arctic Region and global temperatures are rapidly rising and methane is being released.

Most importantly, methane clathrates can be explosively unstable if the temperature increases or the pressure decreases — which can happen as a function of warming temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides. A rapid large release of methane from Arctic methane clathrates is called the "methane clathrate gun effect."

These Arctic Region methane clathrates reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to atmospheric and water current temperature changes as represented by sea-ice changes. As the temperatures warm their result methane greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere. In the early period of natural methane release the powerful gas has a global warming potential (GWP) of greater than 100. Increased temperatures release methane into the atmosphere which in turn serves as a positive regenerative feedback loop that continues the increase of global and regional temperatures. The below study proved that methane concentration originate from sea water, not on land or from human sources.

"Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82° north"

Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo 1452

Received 10 November 2011, Accepted 21 March 2012, Published online 22 April 2012

Uncertainty in the future atmospheric burden of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, represents an important challenge to the development of realistic climate projections. The Arctic is home to large reservoirs of methane, in the form of permafrost soils and methane hydrates, which are vulnerable to destabilization in a warming climate. Furthermore, methane is produced in the surface ocean and the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean are supersaturated with respect to methane. However, the fate of this oceanic methane is uncertain. Here, we use airborne observations of methane to assess methane efflux from the remote Arctic Ocean, up to latitudes of 82° north. We report layers of increased methane concentrations near the surface ocean, with little or no enhancement in carbon monoxide levels, indicative of a non-combustion source. We further show that high methane concentrations are restricted to areas over open leads and regions with fractional sea-ice cover. Based on the observed gradients in methane concentration, we estimate that sea–air fluxes amount to around 2 mg d−1 m−2, comparable to emissions seen on the Siberian shelf. We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea-ice cover.

Fin

Over the last 30 years, methane has gone from being a gas of no importance, to — in some researchers eyes, at least — possibly the most important greenhouse gas for understanding global warming.

"Danger from the deep: New climate threat as methane rises from cracks in Arctic ice"

Scientists shocked to find greenhouse gas 70 times more potent than CO2 bubbling from deep ocean

STEVE CONNOR

The Independent    

MONDAY 23 APRIL 2012

A new source of methane – a greenhouse gas many times more powerful than carbon dioxide – has been identified by scientists flying over areas in the Arctic where the sea ice has melted.

The researchers found significant amounts of methane being released from the ocean into the atmosphere through cracks in the melting sea ice. They said the quantities could be large enough to affect the global climate. Previous observations have pointed to large methane plumes being released from the seabed in the relatively shallow sea off the northern coast of Siberia but the latest findings were made far away from land in the deep, open ocean where the surface is usually capped by ice.

Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, said that methane levels rise so dramatically each time the research aircraft flew over cracks in the sea ice.

"When we flew over completely solid sea ice, we didn't see anything in terms of methane. But when we flew over areas where the sea ice had melted, or where there were cracks in the ice, we saw the methane levels increase." "We were surprised to see these enhanced methane levels at these high latitudes. Our observations really point to the ocean surface as the source, which was not what we had expected."

"Other scientists had seen high concentrations of methane in the sea surface but nobody had expected to see it being released into the atmosphere in this way."

Methane is about 70 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat. However, because methane is broken down more quickly in the atmosphere, scientists calculate that it is 20 times more powerful over a 100-year cycle. The latest methane measurements were made from the American HIPPO research programme where a research aircraft loaded with scientific instruments flies for long distances at varying altitudes, measuring and recording gas levels at different heights.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, covered several flights into the Arctic at different times of the year. They covered an area about 950 miles north of the coast of Alaska and about 350 miles south of the North Pole. The levels of methane coming off this region were about the same as the quantities measured by other scientists monitoring methane levels above the shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

"We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea ice cover," the researchers write. "The association with sea ice makes this methane source likely to be sensitive to changing Arctic ice cover and dynamics, providing an unrecognised feedback process in the global atmosphere-climate system," they say.

Climate scientists are concerned that rising temperatures in the Arctic could trigger climate-feedbacks, where melting ice results in the release of methane which in turn results in a further increase in temperatures.

"We should be concerned because there's so many things in the Arctic where the warming feeds further warming. There are many things in the Arctic that do respond to warming," said Euan Nisbet, a methane expert at Royal Holloway University of London.

Fin

Under current accelerating rates of carbon and methane gases release, human life ends 2050-2055 CE. If Arctic Region methane clathrates carbon reserves become explosively unstable by temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides -- global warming temperature quickly rises and there are no more human races. Therefore, estimates for the continuation of human-life range from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years.  There are no political policies to alter the lifespan of human races.

Global Warming - The Very End

Without changes to human caused greenhouse gas emission there is certainty that all of humanity parishes 2050-2099 CE, most likely 2050-2055 CE.

It is both atmospheric carbon dioxide and powerful global warming methane projected gas levels that are the major global warming temperature-increase forces. Self-serving media and politicians have suppressed and undermined identification of the causes and terminal impact of modern global warming. The global warming situation is now critical. Although nuclear energy and hydrologic water energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase; the European-U.S. communist political leadership oppose expansion of that clean energy. For these major reasons, the media and U.S. self-serving politicians are to be called to task for crimes against humanity. The majority of the European-U.S. communist political movement supports continued use of hydrocarbon energy, it is therefore difficult to identify who has the the authority to judge and correct global warming wrong and evil.   

Crimes Against Humanity

The Arctic Region global warming gases were once noted in the 1990s by the scientific community of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, with the European-U.S. 1990s communist takeover of UN responses to global warming, international consideration of Arctic global warming has become politically restricted. UN, European, California U.S.A., and U.S. congressional global warming responses are now strictly controlled by European-U.S. political leadership. It is this coordinated leadership that refuses to acknowledge catastrophic global warming. By their lack of global warming responses, European-U.S. political leadership are committing crimes against humanity.

The neo communist movement continues to undermine consideration of nuclear energy construction. European-U.S. communist have turned global warming into a transfer of wealth priority and a social cause for alternative renewable green energy and carbon cap-and-trade. The political correctness of global warming is now established too favor $100s of billions of short-term political and special interest energy-corruption. Keep in mind political corruption and self interests are not only deeply involved alternative renewable green energy and carbon cap and trade, the corruption and crimes against humanity are also deeply engaged in retaining and expanding the multi-national multi-trillion dollar global hydrocarbon industries of coal, oil, and natural gas. Too many politicians have too little regard for human races continued life.      

Arctic Region Global Warming Gas

First, understand the Arctic Region release of methane is a ticking time bomb. The Arctic has enough latent global warming heating capacity to destroy within a year all of human life.  

It is the unique geophysical and massive human use of hydrocarbon energy since 1750 CE that results in a very extraordinary fast moving change of global warming events.

As the global and Arctic regional temperatures rise,  Arctic Region LAND permafrost releases large amounts of hydrocarbon gases and methane. The same hydrocarbon gases are released from Arctic Region OCEAN permafrost from huge methane hydrate (aka, methane clathrate) deposits.  

The clathrate gun hypothesis suggests that a mass release of methane from methane clathrates on the ocean floor may have triggered catastrophic global warming, in turn causing mass extinction, at least once in the Earth's ancient past. Methane clathrates are not found all over the ocean floor — only on the continental shelves. The shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and shallows of the Northwest Passages linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans contain huge (or massive) amounts of methane clathrate deposits. Release of Arctic methane can be relatively slow or can be a clathrate gun release; no matter which it is, Arctic methane does have a catastrophic global warming effect.    

Unlike carbon dioxide, portions of which which can remain in the atmosphere several 1,000s of years (with a global warming potential (GWP) of 1), methane persists in the air for 20-years with a GWP of 56, 100-years GWP 21, and 500-years GWP 6.5. Therefore, aggressively reining in Arctic methane emissions now would mean that far less of the gas would be warming Earth over 20-years, or in the flowing millenniums, caused by the continuous new Arctic Region methane gas venting. Arctic Ocean methane venting in some amounts could occur daily for millenniums.

Polar Region Northwest Passage and Baffin Bay contain vast shallow methane hydrate (aka, clathrate) deposits that remain unexplored. Venting of Polar Region methane is a hugely under identified global threat to human races existence. The shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and land temperatures responded with temperature increase and more carbon and methane release; a destructive positive regenerative gas release-temperature increase is established that accelerates the rate of regional (and global) temperature increase. Said differently, the Arctic positive regenerative feedback loop produces methane release, which increases regional temperature, more methane is released, more regional temperature is increased, more methane is released, etc. This type of positive feedback is a cascade failure mode for the more than 200 million years of "normal" geophysical Earth temperature regulation for glacial and interglacial periods.   


The only way to reduce the peril of an Arctic exceeding tripping points is to reduce global warming temperature increase.

This necessary reduction of global warming temperature rise is what the 1990s European-U.S. communist takeover of UN responses has omitted from 2000-to-present WITHIN official UN global warming reporting. Increasingly disturbing is the fact that under President Obama the government does not produce any meaningfully U.S. government global warming reports. The European-U.S. governments ability to effectively report upon global warming is in considerable doubt. There is ALSO a very disturbing ongoing profound U.S. political corruption of global warming data and falsified (or very misleading) government and private global warming reporting.

Catastrophic global warming events are suffering from coordinated benign neglect and political/media misdirection. The main media continues to be active in deceiving humanity as to the peril and catastrophic events of global warming leading up to sure 2050-2099 CE demise of human races.  

Arctic Region warming is an extremely important global event:  

"Teetering on an Arctic tipping point"

We are seeing the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. This is our warning that humanity is facing a dire future.

CLIMATE SPECTATOR

7 Feb 2012

The Arctic region is fast approaching a series of ‘tipping points’ that could trigger an abrupt domino effect of large-scale climate change across the entire planet. The region contains arguably the greatest concentration of potential tipping elements.

If set in motion, these can generate profound alterations which will place the Arctic not at the periphery, but at the core of the Earth system. There is evidence that these chain reactions have begun. This has major consequences not just for nature, but for the future of humankind as the changes progress.

Research shows that the Arctic is now warming at three times the global average. The loss of Arctic summer sea-ice forecast over the next four decades – if not before – is expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York. The loss of sea ice – which melted faster in summer than predicted – is linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe.

Arctic records show unambiguously that sea ice volume has declined dramatically over the past two decades. In the next 10 years, summer sea ice could be largely confined to north of coastal Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and is likely to disappear entirely by mid-century.

Some environmental and biological elements, including weakening of the oceanic biological carbon pump and the thermohaline circulation,melting of the Greenland ice cap, thawing of Arctic permafrost and methane hydrate deposit, the decline of forest and peat fires in the boreal region, may be linked in a domino effect of tipping points that cascade rapidly once this summer sea ice is lost.

Despite this danger, semantic confusion masquerading as scientific debate – although providing excellent media fodder – had delayed an urgent need to start managing the reality of dangerous climate change in the Arctic.

And of course there are those who benefit from a warmer Arctic. A drop in Arctic ice has opened new shipping routes, expanded oil, gas, and mineral exploitation, increased military and research use, and led to new harbours, houses, roads, airports, power stations and other support facilities.

It has triggered a new gold rush to access these resources, with recent struggles by China, Brazil and India to join the Arctic Council where the split of these resources is being discussed. Not everyone is in favour of reducing the impact of warming on Arctic ice.

But all of us need to take this melting seriously. Top predators such as polar bears are declining. More methane gas is entering the atmosphere as permafrost and submarine methane hydrates thaw. Freshwater discharge has increased 30 per cent in recent years. And the Arctic Sea is warming faster as the ice cap melts, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90 per cent of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60 per cent of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice.

In the subarctic region, die back of the boreal forest and desiccation of peat deposits is leading to uncontrolled peat fires (such as those that plagued Russia in the summer of 2010) increases with warmer weather. This burning will further enhance greenhouse gas emissions.

We expect the Arctic will switch from being a carbon dioxide sink to become instead a source of greenhouse gases if seawater temperatures rise 4-5°C.

The rate of Arctic climate change is now faster than ecosystems and traditional Arctic societies can adapt to. Tipping points do not have to be points of no return. Several tipping points, such as the loss of summer sea ice and melting of permafrost, may be reversible in principle – although hard in practice.

However, should these changes involve the extinction of species – such as polar bears, walruses, ice-dependent seals and more than 1000 species of ice algae – the changes could represent a point of no return.

The Arctic crisis is a test of our capacity as scientists, and as societies, to respond to abrupt climate change. We need to stop debating the existence of tipping points in the Arctic and start managing their dangerous reality.

Fin

Methane persists in the air for 20-years with a global warming potential that is 56 time greater than carbon. Over 100-years the global warming potential is 21 greater than carbon. There are to be releases of huge reservoirs of methane clathrate (or methane hydrate) stored in marine sediments (500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in Arctic Regions permafrost (7.5 - 400 gigatons). The melt-rate of Arctic Region methane clathrates now is a increasingly major deciding factor for the rate of global warming temperature increase.     

End-Permian Mass Extinction  

The geologic model for today's global warming is End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma (million years ago).

At the end of the Permian period, life on Earth was almost completely wiped out by an environmental catastrophe of a magnitude never seen before (until the Modern Global Warming Era). All over the world complex ecosystems were destroyed. Only 5 per cent of species survived the catastrophe, and for the next 500,000 years life itself teetered on the brink of oblivion. Massive volcanic eruptions, sustained over half-a-million years or more, caused catastrophic environmental deterioration - poison gas, global warming, stripping of soils and plants from the landscape, eruption of gases from their frozen locations deep in the oceans, and mass deoxygenation. The Siberian Traps were not formed by explosive eruptions from classic cone-shaped volcanoes. More commonly, the basalt erupted through fissures, long cracks in the ground, as occurs within Iceland today. The volcanoes were accompanied by prodigious outpourings of gases, mostly carbon dioxide. The effect of these gases was devastating. It took 20 or 30 million years for coral reefs to correct for acidification, and for the forests to regrow. In some settings, it took 50 million years or more for full ecosystem complexity to recover. Geologists and palaeontologists are only just beginning to get to grips with this most profound recording of the End-Permian geophysical crises.  

Carbon dioxide geologically cycles in and out of oceans over time (ie, carbon cycle). A scientific team has found for only one period in the last 180 million years when the oceans changed even remotely as fast as today: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 53.6 Ma. It is suspected that PETM global warming occurred when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents; huge amounts of carbon were released into the atmosphere and oceans in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. Most ocean sediments older than 180 million years have been recycled back into the deep earth, scientists have fewer older records to work with prior to 180 million years ago. Because of ocean sediment recycle, End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma (million years ago) period needs additional paleoclimate analysis. The effects of ocean acidification today are overshadowed for now by other problems, ranging from sewage pollution and hotter summer temperatures that threaten corals with disease and bleaching. It may take until 2030-2050 CE before ocean acidification's effect on marine life increasingly shows itself.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages at 1750 CE is about 10 times faster than the End-Permian Period. Now there are more than 9 billion people involved with the global temperature increase.  

End-Permian Mass Extinction of 252.28 Ma is an interesting factor. However, if humans no longer exists past 2099 CE, what happens latter within the Modern Global Warming Era is of little interest.

Modern Global Warming Era  

The simplest and most plausible explanation for the Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated mimic of End-Permian Mass Extinction that involves 9-billion people.  

Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives post 1750 CE human (anthropogenic) energy consumption and resulting carbon dioxide level increase.

Current human life support systems now absorb 42 percent of the planet’s entire terrestrial net primary productivity. We have transformed 50 percent of all land. We have changed the chemical composition of the whole biosphere and all the world’s seas, bringing on global warming and ocean acidification. Most importantly, we raised the extinction rate from a natural level of one extinction per million species per year up to 30,000 per year; three per hour, with a build up to the current population of 6.8 billion people. Expected before 2050 CE are more than 9 billion people. Expected by 2017 CE humans exceed the global carbon budget with hydrocarbon infrastructure-lock-in. Spaceship Earth control systems for continued human life is exceeded, human life ends 2050-2099 CE. All theories about global warming that are to the contrary to this presentation do not have acceptable supporting evidence.

Since 1750 CE, humans have produced an accumulation of a prodigious outpourings of global powerful warming gases, mostly carbon dioxide. Resulting from increased human carbon dioxide emissions, there are Arctic Region methane gas released from huge stores of methane hydrate (aka, methane clathrate).

If all human hydrocarbon emissions were to stop now, Earth's temperature will continue to rise from existing atmospheric excesses of global warming gases for more than 50-years. Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.

Positive atmospheric energy imbalance (measured in W/m2) increases global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people, 2050-2099 CE. Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE of global warming, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.   

The Modern Global Warming Path is Clear

Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 20-years and 17 rounds of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver any fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal for maintaining "climate" at a livable level. The fate of humanity is in the hands of political systems and multinational political machines and Earth’s unyielding geophysical balance.   

Unless there are changes to human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2099 CE of global warming, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind.

In the U.S. we produce, close to 20 tons carbon per person primarily resulting from having a high GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) and a energy inefficient LIFESTYLE. A French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual carbon emissions at 4-billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm goal/+2 oC Limit) or 0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people, much less than the U.S. 20 tons figure. Therefore, we are either producing 10x too much carbon  (according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much carbon (based on the French report). Either way the U.S. carbon footprint is causing a serious threat to continued human races 2050-2099 CE survival.

International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a global physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. National leaders are now “locking-in the global carbon budget.”  

Energy Safety

Nuclear Safety - Since the THREE MILE ISLAND 28 March 1979 incident, the political U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) members have withheld new nuclear design and construction permits. U.S. politicians (through their NRC political members) claimed "nuclear safety" as justification not to permit new nuclear facilities for more than 30-years. The 30-years of U.S. congressional energy activity was designed not to expand clean nuclear energy but to expand special interest global coal, oil, and gas industries. All "safety" claims against current nuclear technology are political lies.    

While nuclear power plants are designed to be safe in their operation and safe in the event of any malfunction or accident, no industrial activity can be represented as entirely risk-free. Incidents and accidents may happen, and as in other industries, will lead to progressive improvement in safety. The three significant accidents in the 50-year history of civil nuclear power generation are:

⇨ Three Mile Island (USA 1979) where the reactor was severely damaged but radiation was contained and there were no adverse health or environmental consequences. Failures in the non-nuclear secondary system, followed by a stuck-open pilot-operated relief valve (PORV) in the primary system allowed large amounts of nuclear reactor coolant to escape.

⇨ Chernobyl (Ukraine 1986) where the destruction of the reactor by steam explosion and fire killed 31 people and had significant health and environmental consequences. The death toll has since increased to about five.   

⇨ Fukushima (Japan 2011) where three older reactors (together with a fourth) were written off as the effects of loss of cooling due to a huge tsunami were inadequately contained.

To achieve optimum safety, nuclear plants in the western world operate using a 'defence-in-depth' approach, with multiple safety systems supplementing the natural features of the reactor core. These can be summed up as: Prevention, Monitoring, and Action (to mitigate consequences of failures). Key aspects of the approach are:

⇨ high-quality design & construction,

⇨ equipment which prevents operational disturbances or human failures and errors developing into problems,

⇨ comprehensive monitoring and regular testing to detect equipment or operator failures,

⇨ redundant and diverse systems to control damage to the fuel and prevent significant radioactive releases,

⇨ provision to confine the effects of severe fuel damage (or any other problem) to the plant itself.

Globally, there are clocked about 14,000 reactor years for nuclear plant for nuclear plant operations.

Coal Safety - Total global brown coal/lignite production in 2010 est is 1042 million tonnes, down from 1184 million tonnes in 1990 CE. In 2010, world hard coal production increased by 6.8%, compared to 1.8% in 2009. It continued to be driven by growth in production from the non-OECD countries with 8.4% growth.

In the 1950s the annual death toll in world coal mines was 70,000. A World Bank study finds that the health costs of air and water pollution in China amount to about 4.3 percent of its GDP. Within China, coal is the primary source of electrical energy.

Coal mining deaths range from 0.009 per million tonnes of coal mined in Australia through 0.034 in U.S. to more than 1 per million tonnes in China and in Ukraine.

China's total death toll from coal mining to 2008 averaged well over 4000 per year - official figures give 5300 in 2000 CE, 5670 in 2001 CE and 6995 in 2003 CE, 6027 in 2004 CE, about 6000 in 2005 CE, 4746 in 2006 CE, 3786 in 2007 CE, 3210 in 2008 CE and 2631 in 2009 CE.  This data omits small Chinese illegal collieries. A report by the World Bank in cooperation with the Chinese government found that about 750,000 people die prematurely in China each year from air pollution.  

From 1880 to 1910, U.S. mine explosions and other accidents claimed thousands of victims. The deadliest year in U.S. coal mining history was 1907, when 3,242 deaths occurred. That year, America's worst mine explosion ever killed 358 people near Monongah, WV. The rate of coal mining deaths decreased from about .20 fatalities per 200,000 hours worked by miners (or one death per million production hours) in 1970 to about .07 fatalities in 1977 and an average of .03 fatalities for the 2001-2005 period. U.S. average mining fatalities and injuries in 2006-2007 was 69 and average annual injuries was 11,800.

In Australia (claimed to have the safest mines in the world) 281 coal miners have been killed in 18 major disasters since 1902, and there have been 112 deaths in NSW mines since 1979.  

Anti-Nuclear False Political Safety Claims - For 40-years U.S. politicians have severely impeded the growth of clean nuclear and hydroelectric energy to promote continued use of coal energy. The political claim against nuclear energy was/is that nuclear is not "safe." Politicians and NRC members increased the cost of nuclear facilities by staggering amounts with many political justifications claiming “safety.” Resulting from the 1970s politics, U.S. nuclear plant construction costs skyrocketed from a reactor estimated at 1980 CE $660 million ballooned to 2010 CE $8.87 billion. The political purpose of increasing nuclear energy costs for "safety" reasons was/is to render nuclear energy non-economically competitive to coal, oil, and natural gas. The U.S. Congress appears to has no interest in saving human races from global warming temperature increase.

Germany, claimed nuclear "safety" reasons to justify its 2011 closure of seven reactors and legislatively ban by 2022 CE all nuclear reactor energy. The European-U.S. anti-nuclear drive was boosted by Germany's Green party, which took control in late March 2011 of the Christian Democrat stronghold of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Germany politicians, like U.S. politicians, shut down the nuclear industry to favor expanding established hydrocarbon based economies.    

President Obama, his administration, and U.S. Senate have compounded global warming problems with their continued political anti-nuclear policies. European-U.S. neo communism will destroy human races in order to retain control over national hydrocarbon economies.

The axis of evil is politically correct responses to global warming while the same untoward politicians undermine honest efforts to correct a situation that leads to the destruction of human races.   

Pending Global Warming Events  

Humans are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.  

Global temperatures are on a path to rise by an average to an unlivable 6 oC by the end of the century. Carbon dioxide emissions have risen by 29% in the past decade alone.

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and decline thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase events occurs:
 

  +2.0°C: Unless natural and human greenhouse gases peak by 2020 CE, in 2030-2040 CE Earth global warming temperature increase shall exceed +2.0°C limit above preindustrial average temperature. Atmospheric carbon dioxide content exceeds 450 ppm.  

 Groundwater - There has been very little research on the impact of global warming on groundwater, including the question of how climate change will affect the relationship between surface waters and aquifers that are hydraulically connected. Postulated is wipe out of agriculture and cattle ranching occurs as sand dunes and dust bowls appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north. Major to massive dust storms sweep the U.S. Midwest. Saltwater inundation of coastal groundwater stores will expand. Groundwater/aquifer pollution such as saltwater encroachment associated with over drafting of aquifers or natural leaching from natural occurring deposits are natural sources of pollution.

 Rising sea levels - Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas. In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages. Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics. Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction. In the 20th century, sea level rise has been accelerating and over the last decades.  Remedial global warming action has become ineffectual to prevent catastrophic temperature increase.

  Rain forest turns to desert - The Amazonian rain forest burns in a firestorm of catastrophic ferocity, covering South America with ash and smoke. Once the smoke clears, the interior of Brazil has become desert, and huge amounts of extra carbon have entered the atmosphere, further boosting global warming. The entire Arctic ice cap disappears in the summer months, leaving the North Pole ice-free for the first time in 3 million years. Water supplies run short in California as the Sierra Nevada snow pack melts away. Tens of millions displaced as the Kalahari Desert expands across southern Africa.

  +4.0°C to +4.4°C: Post 2050-2055 CE, scientists warn only one-tenth of the world’s people might survive to 2099 CE. Students now enrolled in schools and universities face this future.

   WATER - Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic Region (like Siberia) sea and land permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) producing a temperature rise. Melting ice caps and sea level rises have displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta, and Shanghai. Heat waves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy, and Greece. More than half of wild species wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia. Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes result in the Amazon drying up. With temperature increase, more moisture is present in the air, more surface water evaporation, and more aquifer over drafting occurs. There is a resulting large transfer of potable aquifer water (and surface water) to oceans and atmosphere.

  ECOSYSTEMS – There are major extinctions around the globe. Coral mortality is spreading due to ocean acidification and surface/mid-depth ocean warming. Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as ~40% of ecosystems affected.  

  FOOD - All production of cereals decrease. There is increased ocean acidification, increased water hypoxia, and a devastating decreases in fish biomass. Food chain disruptions occur.

  COAST – There is increased damage from floods and storms, with about 30% loss of coastal wetlands. Additional 2 to 15 million people are at risk of coastal flooding each year. There is increased loss of groundwater storage capacity from saltwater inundation into coastal aquifers. “500-year floods” and storm surges occur once every 25 to 240 years while "100-year" flood/storm surge events occur every 3-20 years.  

  HEALTH – There are increased health burdens from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts.  Substantial increased burden on health services.

  ECONOMIC INVESTMENTS - Investment in the world economy is like being a frog in a pot of slowly heated water. The point at which the frog dies is understood. The question is how much will the the investment advisers and media keep turning up the heat under uninformed investors.

  SOCIAL STABILITY – Society’s social structure will increasingly breakdown as life support systems break down under the demands of increased population, increased climate change, increased regional temperatures, decreased food supplies, and increased life support distribution issues.  

  SINGLE EVENTS - Long-term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss, leading to reconfiguration of coastlines worldwide and inundation of low-lying areas. It is to be noted that the (<10%) likelihood in the 21st century Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) shutdown may still be significant given the high consequences of an abrupt shutdown. MOC shutdown includes adverse effects on food production and terrestrial vegetation, changes in fisheries and effects on oceanic carbon dioxide uptake and oceanic oxygen concentrations, an increased warming of southern hemisphere high latitudes and tropical drying.  Weather change patterns are also associated with MOC and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) activity.

  +5.4°C: This global temperature increase is reached prior to 2099 1.1-meter (3.6 feet) rise of sea level by 2099. Only a very small fraction of the 9-10 billion population could continue to exist at the Polar Regions.     

  +6.0°C: Long-term effects on global warming “climate change” are largely "irreversible" for more than millions of years. Anthropogenic and natural global warming greenhouse gas concentrations previously exceeded critical temperature stabilization “trip points.” Human races have been extinguished. Before this point no one is around to care about what happens next.  

Human "Adaptive" Planning - No nation maintains a viable organization or life support planning necessary to respond global warming changes. No nation has proposed a plan or a process that is necessary to prevent many centuries of global warming temperature increase.  

In order of importance U.S. response to global warming results from: increased left European-U.S. communist activity, the calcified U.S. left Democrat Senate, President Obama leadership (or lack thereof), a calculating self-serving oblivious media, U.S. political action committees (PACs), paid internet hackers, "progressive grassroots" supporters of current administrations, and established hydrocarbon industries protecting their own interests. The media handling of global warming is terrible and without regard to the harm caused by benign neglect of proper identification of causes and effects of global warming. U.S. global warming misinformation is sourced from The White House, radical neo communist political appointees, and political Czars, causing non-responsiveness of U.S Senate and government agencies now under neo communist directions. It is evil media and evil politicians who are destroying human races.   

Continuing current human and natural greenhouse gas emissions, the atmospheric carbon level exceeds 450 ppm at 2030-2040 CE. There is no "official" planning or organization in place that is authorized to require global warming corrections. Politicians have until 2017 CE to prevent exceeding the global carbon budget with hydrocarbon infrastructure-lock-in.  

Nuclear energy and hydrologic energies are the only energies with sufficient clean energy capacity to curb global warming temperature increase. If greenhouse gas emissions do not plateau by 2020 CE and declines thereafter, a sequence of global temperature increase natural and human events occurs. These events must be reasonably identified and reported to formulate an effective global warming response plan.

It is necessary for the U.S. Congress to task U.S. military and U.S. intelligence agency resources to provide timely global warming assessments and projections and necessary global warming reduction planning to sustain and support human races existence past 2050-2099 CE (but more closely to 2050-2055 CE).

Global Warming PHYSICS (Part 3) Catastrophic Crisis

If humans want to regulate Earth’s temperature, it is necessary for humans to control ocean temperatures in order to regulate methane clathrates release of methane.

In the 1990s, there was UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “business as usual” scenario reporting.  “Businesses as usual” lost out to promoting “renewable” energy politics and the politics of not reporting greenhouse gas methane.  

Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas, methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization.  Methane (CH4) (about 85% of natural gas) is 105 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period and taking aerosol impacts into account.  

Why Global Warming is a Catastrophic Crisis for Human Races

Carbon dioxide global warming potential (GWP) is exactly one unit (since it is the baseline unit for all other greenhouse gases).  In 2007, methane’s official GWP is 53 to 75 over 20 years (or GWP 105 taking all into consideration). Example, if there is one tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) and one tonne of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere, the tonne of methane over the next 20 years heats Earth 75 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.

Whereas both carbon dioxide and methane has historically regulated Earth’s temperature, post 1750 industrial age, atmospheric METHANE now dominates global warming temperature increase.    

Based upon known historical geological events, geophysicists early noted the possibility of a sudden release of methane if Arctic ice were to disappear, as is now the case.  Release of even a small percentage of total ocean methane deposits could have a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere temperature rise. The warming ocean currents and subsequent breakdown of methane clathrate (aka, methane hydrate) release of global warming gas methane is a developing catastrophic event.  The release of Polar Region methane is dependent upon ocean current temperatures.

To control Earth’s methane atmospheric level and the global warming temperature increase it is necessary for humans to control methane clathrates release of methane by controlling ocean temperatures.  

GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE STATEMENT

Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Kyoto Protocol Response Identification - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon dioxide emissions.

Global Warming Response Identification - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. The Modern Global Warming starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb). The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE

When do we hit the point of no return for climate change?  Around 2017 CE

Based on everything we know about climate science, the basic game plan is that if we want to limit global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (so as not to risk the most dangerous and unpredictable impacts), we will need to prevent the amount of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere from rising above roughly 450 parts per million (ppm).  Currently, we are at about 392 ppm.  However, no one geophysical measurement defines reaching the 2oC temperature increase.  There are several factors at cause of global warming temperature increase: mix of several greenhouse gases, water vapor, albedo, ozone, aerosol cooling, atmospheric chemical reactions, and natural cycles are among the causes of Earth’s temperature regulation.  

Defining a target figure for reduction of global warming is not straightforward.  The loss of aerosol cooling from emissions reductions means we likely need huge cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to avoid 2 oC temperature increase with greater than 90% probability.  Huge means something like a 50% reduction within 20-years and 90% reductions within 50-years.  If you combine that with converge and contract for equity reasons (i.e., greenhouse emissions accounting standards for contracts), Europe needs 80% emission cuts by 2020, the US 90% emission cuts by 2020 and both need 95%-plus emission reductions by 2050.  Greenhouse gas reductions for developing nations also need inclusion.  These are fantasist reductions and require fantastic energy use changes.  Work that is a great deal more technical is necessary to identify adequately global warming global goals and procedures.  

According to the Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report, the key issue to curbing global warming is something known as a “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.”  Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, or geopolitical carbon footprint.  Carbon budget is a physical event.  Infrastructure coal plants in countries like China and India that are being rapidly constructed right now are going to last another 50 years-plus, at least.  Energy-inefficient buildings we are erecting will stay up for some time.  There is a large time lag to rebuild energy infrastructure while Earth’s temperature responses have time lags.  Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 200-year-old carbon tap of coal, oil, natural gas, and methane.  As the IEA found, we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructure to lock us in and make it extremely difficult — maybe impossible — to avoid 450 ppm carbon dioxide.  The point of no return comes around 2017.  

What happens when we lock ourselves in?  We could still avoid exceeding 2oC or more of warming, because above 2oC warming mitigation becomes much, much more costly and difficult.  It is far more expensive to shut down a shiny new coal plant than it is to have never built one to begin with.  It is more arduous to retrofit a bunch of homes and buildings after the fact than it would have been to set rigorous efficiency codes beforehand.

As per the IEA agency calculations, four-fifths of the total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions permitted to 2035 in the 450 ppm carbon dioxide Scenario (450 Scenario) have already been locked-in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories. The world’s existing infrastructure is already producing 80 percent of that “carbon budget” — producing around 390 ppm. And without any real action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the carbon dioxide emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035, leaving no room for maneuver at all. IEA WEO 2011 report does not consider the "methane clathrate gun effect."  

As the IEA report notes, “Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.”  Right now, hitting that 450-ppm [CO2eq] target will require a clean-energy investment of about 1.1 percent of GDP per year, says the IEA (that is not a pure “cost,” since there are many efficiency savings).  However, the longer we delay, the more expensive it gets.  Delays can quadruple the cost.

Granted, if Europe vaporizes in the next few months and the global economy plunges into yet another depression, this could temporarily alter the rate of global warming change.  Energy use will drop, emissions will sag, and we will get a little more space to act.  Maybe the point of no return moves out to 2020 or 2022.  However, as we saw after the last downturn, the world does not tend to take advantage of these reprieves.  When the economy is bad, few countries want to bother with installing energy technologies or figuring out how to curb oil use, and when things recover, the world roars back closer and closer to the 2oC warming mark.

Despite the talk and political stress all around the world for low carbon economy, carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 jumped by 5.3 percent to a record 30.4 gigatons, which is “almost unprecedented annual growth rate.” Global demand for energy is set to increase 40 percent by 2035, the Paris-based IEA agency said in its annual WEO 2011 report.  Consumption will rise 1.3 percent a year to 16.96 billion metric tons of oil equivalent in 2035, spurred by China and other emerging economies.  

Investment in clean energy infrastructure of $1.5 trillion a year will meet projected demand through 2035, and even then, the cost of energy will increase.  To retain their carbon economies (coal, oil, natural gas), U.S. and German politicians have made a costly shutdown of their nation's nuclear energy sector.  It appears that German and U.S. politicians remain unresponsive to saving the human races from global warming destruction.

The political and physical choices of global warming are clear!  

Now (PRIOR TO NOVEMBER 2012) shift global economies either to greenhouse gas emission-free nuclear power and hydroelectric power, or this century face extermination of human life.  Reductions of human and natural methane/carbon dioxide emissions may depend upon limiting coal, oil, and natural gas electrical plants to 20-years, not current 50-year-plus life projections.  Effective replacement for human carbon energy sources is almost exclusively limited to increasing nuclear energy and hydrologic energy.  The sooner a global warming temperature reduction plan is in place and acted upon globally, the greater the probability that human races survive past 2099.   

Considering all global warming causes, the point of no return is around 2017 Christian Era (CE) to peak carbon dioxide is at 450-ppm carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2eq] of human and natural greenhouse gases.  Unless there is soon stopping the trigger of the methane clathrate gun, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099 CE.  Until global politicians very-soon accept the fact that global warming is their responsibility, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099 CE.   

Delaying global warming temperature increase response are recalcitrant politicians and a lack of identified reliable public source of dependable global warming information.  Up until now the only “official” source global warming information has been the UNFCCC and UN IPCC reporting.  UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reporting has not changed since 1990s dropping methane reporting and adopting IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001).       
  
Political Delays of Global Warming Response  

To minimize the political importance of “climate change” and maximize funding of renewable energy while promoting transfer of wealth  though carbon trades, increase government corruption and purchase special interest support, and the funding of Copenhagen 2009 COP15 wealth transfers - “climate change” became “lets build lots of renewable energy” that does not work.

IPCC First Assessment Report (1990) and Second Assessment Report (SAR 1995) reported methane activity.  Later, as a cover and diversion to not properly representing the roll of global warming greenhouse gases, leading world leaders published a new set of political scenarios in 2000 reports.  IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001) and IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007) hardly mention the powerful global warming methane gas.  Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios became global warming mitigation foundations within the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001) and within the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007).
  
IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, which is to be released) "will put greater emphasis on assessing the socio-economic aspects [i.e., SRES] of climate change and implications for sustainable development, risk management and the framing of a response through both adaptation and mitigation."

There is no IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of the role of methane within global temperature cycle.  There is no IPCC AR5 mention of reducing global warming temperatures.  The intended purpose of IPCC’s AR3, AR4, and AR5 covertly continues world leaders’ carbon economies of coal, oil, and natural gas.

The IPCC’s shift from global warming science to the political diversion of SRES social issues occurred during the 1990s with the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol (adopted 11 December 1997).  U.S. President Clinton’s administration suppressed the world’s efforts to reduce global warming temperature increase.  During the same 1990s, methane dropped from global warming consideration.  The result is that the methane clathrate gun effect is rapidly accelerating due to human carbon dioxide emissions and natural methane emissions.  Unless there is soon stopping the trigger of the methane clathrate gun, there is no saving of human races 2050-2099.

The 20-years and failed seventeen talks held since the ‘Earth Summit of 1992’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind. Thanks to the abysmal and unforgivable failure of the world’s leadership, 17 rounds of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "climate change" negotiations have failed to give full effect and deliver a fair, ambitious, and binding GLOBAL WARMING deal that stabilizes the climate.  Climate science is unequivocal that the opportunity to limit warming to safe levels will close in this very 2010-2020 decade.  In fact, carbon-intensive infrastructure, including power stations, buildings, and factories, planned over the next five years will lock the world into a high-emissions trajectory.  Emissions are to plateau by 2020 and rapidly reduce thereafter or the 2 degree C target will slip out of reach.

Coincident with the 1990s development of the Kyoto Protocol (ie, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed at the Conference of Parties III (COP3), 1997, Kyoto Japan); there is a major redirection of IPCC reporting the global warming event.  Within the 1990s, IPCC reporting-shift started promoting the unmonitored “renewable alternative energy” sector and carbon-cap-and-trade.  “Business as usual” is a standard scenario evaluation technique that (in the case of global warming) identifies “no response” to reduction of global warming greenhouse gases and no response to curbing global temperature increase.  Within all forms of major social-planning “business as usual” scenario forms is from which other case studies are developed.  Business as usual is a scenario first established to provide planning baseline comparisons.  To avoid change, world leaders shifted reporting business as usual carbon economies to IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).  Business as usual scenario was not in IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001), and in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007).  World leaders went about “business as usual” by doing nothing about global warming temperature increase.  When it comes to completing important changes, world leaders suffer from Greek King Sisyphus syndrome.  In the UK, Europe, and the US, there are multiple plans for new fossil-fueled power stations that would contribute significantly to global emissions over the coming decades.  To the world leaders, it is still “business as usual.”  The 1990s to date world leaders removing IPCC business as usual scenarios, and removing methane clathrate reporting from IPCC reporting, are political acts by world leaders against human race survival.  

Methane - the NOBLE global warming gas

Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic Region averages is about 1,850 parts per BILLION (ppb), the highest methane has been in 55.8 million years.  This high level of methane brings into doubt the 2050-2099 survivability of Earth’s 9 to 10 billion people.

There are four methane factors associated with the methane force that need to be understood in order to help determine global warming temperature changes:  

➲  Natural Methane – Natural methane has produced almost all methane global warming gas. Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of methane deposits aided by aerobic degradation of organic compounds (mainly deposits of coal, oil, natural gas, and surface organics) in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure.  Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect.  The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost.  Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with an official 20-year GWP of 53-75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization (aka, “positive-feedback”).  In effect initiating a methane clathrate runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.  

➲  High Latitude Land Permafrost - Soil carbon are estimated to be stored in soils and permafrost of high latitude ecosystems which is twice as much carbon as is currently contained in the atmosphere.  In the warmer world, land permafrost thawing and decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is one of the more likely “positive-feedback” from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.  Although ground temperature increases in permafrost regions are well documented there is a knowledge gap in the response of permafrost carbon to climate change. The only control mechanism for land permafrost methane gas is regulation of Arctic air temperatures and stop producing carbon particulates deposits.

➲  High Latitude Ocean Permafrost - Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon. Experts are concerned that ocean methane clathrate release as methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric temperatures, thus creating a “positive-feedback” loop that would lead to more methane escaping from the permafrost and more global warming. Ocean-bottom permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon, and its release as methane gas would lead to warmer atmospheric and water temperatures, thus creating a positive-feedback loop that would lead to more methane escaping from the ocean/land permafrost and more global warming.  More than 80 percent of Arctic deep water and more than half of surface water had methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater, according to the study published in the journal Science. With a normal ~100,000-year interglacial cycle, seawater-methane and atmospheric-methane concentrations are maintained by surface interactions such as chemical and regional sea/air temperature and wave motion. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it reaches the surface. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply does not have enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously non-calculated variable of methane warming to global warming models.  The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane clathrate-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean.  More than 80 percent of the deep water and more than half of surface water have methane levels around eight times higher than found in normal seawater. The Arctic Shelf is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands. It is unknown how much total methane Canada and Alaska land/ocean permafrost contributes to global warming temperature increase.  However, patrolling the Arctic Ocean and oil drilling companies have available significant relief-map information that could aid in global warming estimates.  The only control mechanism for clathrates methane gas is regulation of current Arctic Ocean temperatures.  Arctic Ocean is 542,705 sq mi (14,056,000 sq km).

➲  Methane Global Warming Potential (GWP) - The effects of a critical greenhouse gas on global warming have been significantly underestimated, according to MOST RECENT research suggesting that emissions controls and climate models may need to be revised.  Earth's heat exchange rate between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is generally calculated according to global warming potential (GWP), which measures the effects of one tonne of a gas on warming over 20, 100, and 500 years in comparison to one tonne of carbon dioxide.  Global Warming Potentials (GWP) for methane includes indirect effects of tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric water vapor production for 20 years is 53.  However, methane GWP 53 interaction with carbon monoxide, oxidants, sulphates aerosols molecules and other chemical reactions are complicated.  Dependent upon chemical composition of the atmosphere, GWP of methane is 53 to 75 (or GWP 105 taking all into consideration). Recalculated GWP of methane that is 53 to 75 times that of carbon dioxide is a very significant global warming factor increase.  

Methane (CH4) may account for up to a third of the global warming from greenhouse gases between 1750 and 2050.  The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits (likely resulting from the “clathrate gun methane release”) is a cause of past and future geologic global warming climate changes.  Events possibly linked in this way are the Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4 Ma (million years ago)) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (55.8 Ma).  Resulting from 1750 to 2011 human global warming activity, current global warming rate of natural and human induced global temperature change is ten times faster than that of the PETM event with current temperature change increasingly impacting Earth’s support of more than 9 billion people.  

Gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties.  Natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate End-Permian Period while human carbon energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural ocean methane clathrates release dominate change rate of Modern Global Warming.

End-Permian mass extinction 252.28 Ma

At the start of the Permian, the Earth was still at the grip of an Ice Age from the Carboniferous. Glaciers receded around the mid-Permian period as the climate gradually warmed, drying the continent's interiors. In the late Permian period, the drying continued although the temperature cycled between warm and cool cycles.

The end-Permian mass extinction, which a study calls the “most severe biodiversity crisis in earth history,” wiped out 95% of marine life and 70% of life on land about 252.28 million years ago (Ma).  Only 5 per cent of species survived the catastrophe.  Scientists identify excessive levels of carbon dioxide and methane as the "trigger."  Scientists suggest that the massive release of these two warming gases came from volcanic lava flows called Siberian traps now found in northern Russia.  The flood basalts triggered carbon dioxide - and methane - induced global warming and caused ocean acidification, a drier climate, more forest fires, and soil erosion.

Near the end of the Permian period, each region of the world had its own fauna and flora.  Afterwards, the survivors became cosmopolitan.  It took 20 or 30 million years for coral reefs to re-establish themselves, and for the forests to re-grow.  In some settings, it took 50 million years or more for full ecosystem complexity to recover.  Geologists and paleontologists are only just beginning to get to grips with this most profound of crises.

The Permian period was between 290 Ma and 252 Ma.  What exactly happened 252.28 million years ago?  Unfortunately, the Modern Global Warming Era is emulating the End-Permian mass extinction.  Since 1750 human use of global warming greenhouse gases carbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and resulted in releases of methane gas from Arctic Ocean deposits of methane clathrates (aka, methane hydrates), if left unchecked, will in 2050-2099 result in global warming temperature of 6 °C above 1750 preindustrial level.  

In 1866, the Modern Global Warming Era started its temperature increase similar to the Permian crisis.  Since pre industrial times, the concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly.  By 2010, greenhouse gas increased above interglacial concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%.  The 1750 CE greenhouse concentrations levels were historic interglacial carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb.  Present concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb).

Fortunately, Meishan-Permian rock section (aka, PermianTriassic boundary section) and other sections elsewhere, contain a record of environmental changes through the end-Permian crisis, in the form of isotopes of oxygen and carbon.  Both elements have two stable, naturally occurring isotopes whose ratios fluctuate depending on environmental conditions.  Skeletons of organisms during their lifetimes contain locked isotope ratios.  Careful recordings from the shells of bivalves or foraminiferans, for example, can give a detailed picture of atmospheric and oceanic conditions through time.

Oxygen isotopes are palaeothermometers.  Oxygen occurs in two forms, oxygen-16, and oxygen-18.  Oxygen isotopes incorporate into the calcite skeletons of marine creatures at different rates depending on the water temperature, more oxygen-18 at low temperatures, and more oxygen-16 at high.  At the base of bed 25, the main mass extinction level, there was a sudden shift in the oxygen isotope ratios indicating a worldwide rise in temperature of 6 °C.  This may not sound much, but it would have a profound effect on the world's ecology.  Climatologists have been getting very excited recently about a 0.8 °C rise in global temperatures.  

The carbon isotopes suggest what might have caused the temperature increase.  They show a massive shift towards the light isotope, carbon-12, exactly at the time of the big extinction.  Pulses of carbon-12 in the geological record are usually indicative of a volcanic eruption or a large die-off (plants, animals and bacteria concentrate carbon-12 in their bodies and release it when they die).  Both certainly happened at the end of the Permian.  However, the carbon-12 pulse is far too big for the organic large die off mechanisms alone.  Calculations of global carbon budgets have suggested that, even if every plant, animal, and microbe died, altogether they would only account for about one-fifth of the observed carbon shift.  The Siberian Traps would have added another fifth.  Where did the remaining three-fifths of global carbon budget come from?

The extra carbon-12 came from frozen deep under the oceans in the form of methane clathrates (aka, gas hydrates), extraordinary accumulations of carbon-12-rich methane locked up in cages of methane clathrates.  Ocean methane clathrates occur at lower temperatures and higher pressure.  If the atmosphere and oceans warm up sufficiently, these gas reserves, can suddenly melt and release their contents in a catastrophic way (i.e., “clathrate gun effect”).  The explosion of gas through the surface of the oceans has been termed a "methane burp.”  A very large methane burp at the end of the Permian could have produced enough carbon-12 to make up the deficit.  

The cause of the burp was probably global warming triggered by huge releases of natural carbon dioxide from the Siberian Traps.  In the Modern Global Warming, human use of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) is the “trigger” for the Arctic natural "methane burp."  Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas too, so a big burp raises global temperatures even further.  Normally, long-term natural interglacial global processes act to bring greenhouse gas levels down.  This kind of normal interglacial negative feedback keeps the Earth in equilibrium.  However, what happens if the release of methane is so huge and fast that normal feedback processes are overwhelmed?  Then you have a positive feedback "runaway greenhouse" cascade failure event.  That is, a positive feedback system creates excess carbon in the atmosphere causes warming, the warming triggers the release of more methane from gas clathrates, this in turn causes yet more warming, which leads to the release of more methane and so on.  As temperatures rise, species start to go extinct.  Plants and plankton die off and oxygen levels plummet.  This is what seems to have happened 252 million years ago and is starting to happen now. rate of modern Earth’s temperature change is at least 10 times greater that of End-Permian mass extinction temperature rate of change.
  
Modern Global Warming   

Due to the positive feedback effect of melting ice-reducing albedo, End-Permian temperature increases would have been greatest at the poles, which reached an average annual temperature of at least 10 to 20 °C (50 to 68 °F).  The surface waters of the northernmost Arctic Ocean warmed, seasonally at least, enough to support tropical life forms requiring surface temperatures of over 22°C (71.6 °F).  Under such conditions, there would have been great venting over time of potent global warming methane from Arctic Ocean methane clathrate dissociation.  Warming accompanying a south-to-north switch in deep water would produce sufficient warming to destabilize seafloor gas hydrates over most of the world ocean to a water depth of at least 1,900 meter.  Modern Global Warming destabilization could result in the release of more than 2,000 gigatons of methane carbon from clathrate zone of the ocean floor.  Temperature increase greatly exceeds 6 oC.         
 
Modern Global Warming global average temperatures is to rise at least 5°C (9°F) prior to 2099. The temperature will continue to rise.  The resulting impact on Earth's climate will be so severe that a new geological era is born.  Because the warming was gradual, Earth's ecosystems were able to adapt to the End-Permian.  However, Modern Global warming is about 10 times faster the End-Permian.  This time around, Mother Nature will not be able to keep up with the global warming climate change.  

Major reasons for the Arctic Ocean temperature increase include the level of Sun’s radiative forcing, ocean current temperature, ocean saline levels, and atmospheric levels of methane/carbon dioxide, aerosol levels, ice level, and a other factors.  However, the current primary Polar Region heating forcing results from regional atmospheric methane content, temperatures, and positive feedback loops.  Ocean temperatures and currents control the release of methane from large deposits of sea methane clathrates.

Carbon and methane flows between reservoirs in an exchange called the Carbon Cycle, which has slow and fast components.  Any change in the cycle shifts carbon out of one reservoir puts more carbon and methane in the other reservoirs.  Changes that put carbon and methane gases into the atmosphere result in warmer temperatures on Earth.  The fast carbon-methane cycle moves carbon-methane between land, atmosphere, and oceans.

Sudden Polar Methane Release

Once Polar Arctic land glacial-ice becomes unstable, it begins releasing methane from underlying land and lake permafrost.  In addition and more importantly, with warming the Polar arctic methane clathrates degas methane.  Releases of reservoirs of methane clathrate that is stored in permafrost are huge (7.5 - 400 gigatons).  Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution around 1750, humans have pumped about 500 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere.  

By some estimates, the global warming potential (GWP) of methane locked up in methane hydrate deposits in the sea and land permafrost is more than 70 times the potential global reserves of all conventional gas, oil, and coal deposits combined.  NOTE: When comparing tonnage of global warming gases remember to factor in GWP.  One methane tonne of can equal 75 tonnes or more of carbon dioxide.  

Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels are determined by changes of the sun’s global warming strength (described by the Milankovitch Cycle).  Milutin Milankovitch (1879-1958) Earth Orbital Variation “...orbital variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of climatic change of tens of thousands of years and are by far the clearest case of a direct effect of changing insulation on the lower atmosphere of Earth”  --National Research Council, 1982  

Recent “natural” Milankovitch Cycle earth temperature ~100,000-year interglacial periods are no longer occurring.  Resulting from human activity since 1750, global warming greenhouse gases have increased very-dramatically.  The curve of global warming gas increase is a “hockey stick curve.”  Current ice-core methane content is well above the normal Milankovitch Earth orbital variation interglacial temperature cycle.  Since pre industrial times, the concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly.  The greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%.  The 1750 CE greenhouse concentrations levels were historic interglacial carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb.  Present concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb).  

Methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and aerobic degradation of organic compounds in low oxygen environments under reduced temperature and increased pressure.  Methane clathrate can initiate a positive carbon/methane feedback cycle and resulting methane clathrate gun effect.  The clathrate gun is the popular name given to the hypothesis that rises in sea temperatures can trigger the sudden release of methane from methane clathrate compounds buried in seabed and permafrost.  Because methane itself is a powerful greenhouse gas (with a 20-year GWP 75), methane leads to further regional and global temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization.  In effect initiating a runaway process is irreversible once started, as is the firing of a gun.  When the methane clathrate gun triggers, Earth’s temperature quickly rises tens of degrees.  The Arctic/Antarctic methane clathrate gun is one of several MAJOR global warming “trip points.”  

Earth today is undergoing a catastrophic global change, warming rapidly from a Polar very cold, seemingly stable climate state to a very warm stable climate state.  There is no pause or slow temperature rise.  Evolutionary transition does not occur for more than 9 million people.  If humans want to regulate Earth’s temperature, it is necessary for humans to control methane clathrates release of methane by controlling ocean temperatures.  

A nearly 20-year study reveals that in 2006 the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a combined mass of 475 gigatonnes a year on average.  That is enough to raise global sea level by an average of 1.3 millimeters (.05 inches) a year.  The pace at which the polar ice sheets are losing mass is accelerating rapidly.

The Polar Arctic has been losing about 10% of its permanent ice layer every ten years since 1980.  Melting of Arctic sea ice has also reached record heights: in mid-September 2007, at the point when sea ice reaches its annual minimum extent, perennial ice covered an area of 4.14 million km² (1.60 million mile²).  This record low level reached again in September 2011 with 4.34 million km² (1.68 million mile²).  The rate of Arctic sea ice loss is accelerating due to regional heating and accelerating global temperature increase.  There are vast (or huge) stores of methane in the oceans and North/South Polar Regions that are part of global interglacial carbon-cycle sinks and sources.  

With decrease in sea- and land-ice, there comes increased regional Polar Arctic and Arctic Ocean warming, increased release of methane, and resulting global warming temperature increase.  Loss of Polar permafrost and ice is an example of a temperature feedback loop.  It takes 1,000,000s of years for this modern global temperature increases to return to “normal” interglacial cycles.

It is a major concern that only a little global warming over a short period of 100 years can unleash trapped methane.  A large degassing of the methane reservoir could potentially warm the Earth tens of degrees, and the mechanism could be geologically very rapid.  Such a violent PETM zipper-like opening of the clathrates would have triggered a catastrophic climate and biogeochemical reorganization of the ocean and atmosphere around 55.8 million years ago.  A new PETM methane zipper-like opening would create a modern catastrophic climate change.   

Understanding of Methane Clathrate as a Major Positive Global Warming Temperature Feedback - 1989 to President Obama

Discovered were methane clathrates (or hydrates) in 1810.  In the 1930s, clathrate formation turned out to be a major problem, clogging pipelines during transportation of gas under cold conditions.  Gas clathrates, also called hydrates, are crystalline solids, which look like ice, and occur when water molecules form a cage-like structure around smaller 'guest molecules'.  The most common guest molecules are methane, ethane, propane, isobutene, normal butane, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide, of which methane occurs most abundantly in natural clathrates.

Ocean current and changes to ocean current temperatures are important heat exchanges within Earth’s temperature regulation cycle.  Oceans play a very important part in the Carbon Cycle.  An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of ocean water generated by the forces acting upon this mean flow, such as breaking waves, wind, Coriolis Effect, temperature, and salinity differences.  Ocean forces create depth contours; shoreline configurations and interaction with other currents influence direction and strength.

Begun December 1989, the talks held since the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (aka, ‘Earth Summit’) of 1992 formed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), global warming talks are the most important negotiations ever undertaken in the history of humankind.
 
One geologist wrote in a 1989 paper identified that "any slight warming of the Arctic water will release hydrate from the sea floor almost immediately.  A temperature change of a few degrees will liberate methane from the uppermost sea-floor sediments at this depth within a few years.”  The worst-case analysis is grim indeed: "the danger of a thermal runaway caused by methane release from [sea and land] permafrost is minor, but real ...even if there is only a 1 per cent chance that such events will occur, the social implications are profound."

Millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits form the sea methane clathrates and deposits of organic matter produce methane.  Over millenniums, aerobic degradation of organic compounds in low oxygen environments produces global warming methane gas clathrates and other carbon gas forms.  The greenhouse gases escape from the sediments into the water column. Sulfides produce a global dimming effect for use in Geoengineering projects to limit the impact of global warming due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

There are huge deposits of methane clathrates whose stability is cold temperature and increased pressure sensitive.  As the water temperature increases (or pressure decreases), methane is released to the water column.  Clathrates occur wherever the conditions within the sediments are in the methane-clathrate stability field, and where methane and water are available.  Methane clathrates degas as determined by temperature and pressure of the clathrate.  Gas clathrates are more stable at low temperatures and/or under pressures.  
 
A positive global warming heating results from clathrate releases of methane.  The methane release will lead to a catastrophic global warming heating event prior to 2099 where Earth’s average temperature exceeds tens of degrees above preindustrial 1750 temperatures.   

Unfortunately, "the danger of a thermal runaway caused by methane release from [sea and land] permafrost” is now a real ongoing event that the EU-US Neo-Communist political movement has been vigorously attempting to conceal.

If the public became better informed about decades of global warming neo-communist politics, the neo-communists would lose control over the energy sector that U.S. left Democrats have been cultivating since President Clinton, Vice President Gore, and left Democrat Congress passage of the U.S. Energy Policy Act of 1992.

Since the late 1990s, anti nuclear neo communists have been undermining the knowledge of the importance of methane in global warming temperature increase.  Many of President Obama’s government department websites present false and misleading information. The political intent has been to obscure the structure of global warming temperature increase in order to promote transfer of wealth and transfer of income schemes while promoting “renewable” energy.  IPCC documents contain fraudulent assessments created by untoward political committee members (and not by any of the 10 IPCC staff members).  U.S. government websites and some university websites contain levels of false information.  Identifying reliable sources of global warming information and data can be tricky.        

Global Warming

At this stage of the new global warming cycle, and considering Polar Region sea and land permafrost melt, it is approaching certainty that a global warming event is likely to occur.  Because we have 7 billion people on earth who lack adult leadership, the new global warming event is a new geologic event.  With more than 9 billion people resident before 2050 and the global temperature exceeding +2oC, conditions are becoming worse.   

More than 60 million years of interglacial cycle periods (now at 100,000-year intervals), the Sun’s positions determined limits of Earth warming and cooling.  Over time, Sun warming of greenhouse-gas methane and carbon dioxide resulted in “more warming” or “less warming.”  

Direct chemical analysis of the bubbles trapped within ice-cores identifies levels of concentration of methane, carbon dioxide, and temperatures.  Deuterium (Greek symbol D) readings are temperature proxies from the same bubbles containing methane and carbon dioxide.  The correlation between the ice-core deuterium kinetic isotope (i.e., temperature proxy) at formation and methane/carbon dioxide and is nearly perfect.  Deuterium is a stable, naturally occurring hydrogen isotope.  Deuterium (D) kinetic isotope effect is temperature sensitive and is an excellent temperature proxy.

Ice-core samples contain several interglacial cycles.  Each interglacial cycle is about 100,000-years.  Although the third and fourth climate cycles are of shorter duration than the first two cycles in the Antarctic research Vostok Station record, the four previous climate cycles show a similar sequence of a warm interglacial, followed by colder glacial events, and ending with a rapid return to a long stable interglacial period. Minimum temperatures are within 1°C for the four climate cycles. The overall amplitude of the glacial-interglacial temperature change is ~8°C for the temperature above the inversion level and ~12°C for surface temperatures. Climate cycles deduced from the Vostok ice core appear to have greater uniformity than those records of deep-sea cores. In meteorology, an inversion is a deviation from the normal change of an atmospheric property.  

Current Earth life forms have evolved over the last 650,000 years of interglacial cycles.  A graph of the current atmospheric global warming gas levels are well above 650,000 years of interglacial cycles highs.  Carbon dioxide is now 390 parts per million (ppm) with a preindustrial level of 280 ppm.  Methane is now about 1870 parts per billion (ppb) when previously the pre-1750 AD tropospheric concentration was 700 ppb.  

For more than 60 million years the most important warming and cooling force has been the warming of the Sun relative to the position of earth.  Calculating Sun Radiative Forcing energy at any given time is an orbital mechanics problem.  Astronomer Milutin Milankovitch developed the mathematical formulas upon which orbital variations identify climate changes. He hypothesized that when some parts of the cyclic variations combine and occur at the same time, they are responsible for major changes to the Earth's interglacial climate (even ice ages). Milankovitch estimated climatic fluctuations over the last 450,000 years and described cold and warm periods.  He did his work in the first half of the 20th century.  A 1976 study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Earth orbit variations corresponded to periods of climate change.  

Current anthropogenic, geologically very sudden increase in greenhouse gases is primarily caused by burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), which yearly inject a massive bolus tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  Post 1750 release of human carbon dioxide initiated a slight temperature increase that released a large amount of natural methane clathrate gases and increased positive global warming feedbacks.

“Normal” interglacial global warming is self-rectifying by slow chemical weathering processes responsible for mineral sequestration of carbon or by gradual return of Earth’s orbital parameters to a cooling cycle, thereby significantly reducing the amount of solar radiant heating reaching the Earth’s surface.  After 500 to 1,000 years, atmospheric methane no longer is a global warming gas.  It takes many 1,000s of years for atmospheric carbon to reduce its global warming potential.  The result is cooling oceans are able to gradually absorb and lower atmospheric methane/carbon dioxide, enabling restoration of albedo at higher latitude/altitude, producing further slow global cooling.

This explains why global warming is fast to rise and post-maximum temperatures are slow to fall.

As part of the Carbon Cycle, during the base 60 million years, surface wave action of oceans absorbs and expels large quantities of methane and carbon dioxide.  Methane and carbon dioxide are principal effects in Earth’s temperature change.  After 1750, anthropocentric (human) carbon dioxide from burning forest, coal, oil, and natural gas increased atmospheric and ocean current temperatures.  Natural ocean methane releases increased.  Increased temperatures produced positive temperature feedback loops of ocean methane clathrate deposits degassed.  

Earth’s temperature “rapidly” increases until there is a stabilization point reached between Sun relative position to earth and the atmospheric methane/carbon dioxide levels.  A realistic temperature limit for human race survival would be +1.5 oC.     

Unless there is a radical energy policy change that now reduces global warming greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide, 2050 to 2099 Earth’s excessive temperatures are too high for human races continued existence.  New energy policies must peak human and natural global warming gases 2015-2020 and the global warming gases are to decline thereafter.  

Globally we put about 90 million tons of human and natural global warming pollution into the atmosphere every 24 hours.  If there is no U.S. Energy Policy and German in 2012 that supports global warming temperature reduction, than Earth’s humans no longer exist 2050-2099.

Reduction of Modern Global Warming temperature increase requires reduction of human energy use of coal, oil, and natural gas necessary to reduce warming.  By stopping human greenhouse gas emissions, over time temperature stabilization occurs when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback.

World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races 2050-2099.  This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal.  A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals.  The goal’s starting level for greenhouse natural and human gas reduction is 1750 CE historic carbon dioxide peak levels (~280 ppm) and methane peak levels (~700 ppb).  The goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100 CE.  

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