Global Warming 2050-2099

Increasing atmospheric natural and human (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) result in a cataclysmic global temperature increase. The first step to a solution is to acknowledge that global warming temperature increases result in human races’ life or death epic destiny. Without a world leader who will resolve implementing effective global warming mitigation, the human races and their economies terminate 2050-2099 CE -- but more closely to 2050-2055 CE.

Sunday, July 08, 2012

RESULTS OF 250-YEARS OF BUSINESS AS USUAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Unless there are changes to global human greenhouse gas emissions, all those who are not yet born, and those who are now children and young adults under the age of 30-years, shall die 2050-2055 of global warming, ending the 160 thousand year journey of mankind. Global warming temperature is about +0.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperature of about 250 years ago. Expected is global warming reaches carbon dioxide 450 ppm limit around 2030-2040, after that point Earth changes and temperature increase occurs rapidly and uncontrollably. By exceeding "global carbon budget" with coal, natural gas, and oil emissions, global catastrophic conditions in less than 25-years are established in 2017.

The EU global climate protection target of 450 ppm atmospheric carbon was established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, and 2007. The International Energy Agency (IEA) found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult -- if not impossible -- to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming carbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017, five-years from 2012. To save human races, nuclear energy electrical generation is to phase out coal, oil, natural gas by 2017. Saving human races task is both time and government funding critical.

Over the coming five years, the least-cost global warming option is lowering global warming by steadily transforming global human energy-systems to nuclear energy, which lower human/natural greenhouse gases, then lower to zero human emissions. Difficult to reduce are Arctic Region natural methane/carbon levels that are ocean-current temperature dependent and land surface air temperature dependent. Arctic Region natural methane/carbon emissions form a reinforced positive feedback loop that is directly temperature related.

OPPOSITION TO NUCLEAR ENERGY

The world was making progress developing nuclear energy under the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) from 1946 to 1974 -- inexpensive clear nuclear energy was becoming available to drive U.S. industries. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was formed January 1975 to date.

Under President Ford (August 9, 1974 to 1977) and President Carter (1977 to 1981) the NRC was politically positioned to oppose and increase the costs of nuclear energy development and impose restrictive nuclear regulations. The covert purpose of NRC membership was to limit nuclear reactor electrical generation and promote coal, natural gas, and oil use. Left Democratic Presidents AND supporting cabals have been and remain the largest obstacles to curbing global warming greenhouse gases and providing for the security of human races.

The current major obstacles to securing a future for human races is President Obama, silent media, and a dedicated small but politically influential coal, natural gas, oil energy group. For Congress to participate in preventing 2017 exceeding of "global carbon budget," NRC membership is to be replaced by four senior nuclear specialists and one presidential appointee. Revised scope of revised NRC membership is to include supervisions of U.S. 'Nuclear Fuel Cycle' and rapid expansion of U.S. nuclear energy. Global and U.S. plans for global warming reduction are to be produced by intelligence agencies with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). Natural and human global greenhouse gases are to peak by 2020 and decline thereafter.

The clock is ticking, end of human races comes too soon in 2050-2055.

CARBON DIOXIDE and METHANE CONCENTRATIONS

Earth's Energy IMBALANCE

A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming.

Pinpointing the magnitude of Earth's "energy imbalance" is fundamental to GLOBAL WARMING science because it offers a direct measure of the state of the climate. Energy imbalance calculations also serve as the foundation for projections of future climate change. If the imbalance is Positive then more energy enters the system -- Earth grows warmer. If the imbalance is Negative -- Earth grows cooler.

A NASA team concluded that Earth has absorbed more than half a watt more solar energy per square meter than it let off throughout the six year study period. According to calculations conducted, the 0.58 watts per square meter imbalance implies that carbon dioxide levels need to be reduced to about 350 parts per million (ppm) to restore the energy budget to equilibrium. The most recent measurements show that carbon dioxide levels are currently 392 ppm (well above balanced equilibrium state of 350 ppm carbon dioxide). Scientists expect global warming gas concentration to continue to rise in the future -- reference "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics," James Hansen, director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, December 2011.

Positive atmospheric energy imbalance increase global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people by 2050-2055. There is NO SAFE carbon dioxide level above 350 ppm.

LEAST COST GLOBAL WARMING OPTION

Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives human energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels. Increase population and/or GDP and energy use increases.

Human hydrocarbon energy use increases natural carbon dioxide, which increases natural methane atmospheric levels. Combination of natural and human greenhouse gas accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change.

A perplexing issue with global warming is communicating the seriousness of global temperature increase. At current rate of hydrocarbon (coal, oil, natural gas) infrastructure installation, Earth's global carbon budget is exceeded about 2017. Critical 450 ppm carbon dioxide level is exceeded about 2030. Resulting human races termination from global warming is most likely 2050-2055.

Over the coming few years, the least-cost global warming option is lowering global warming by steadily transforming global human energy systems to nuclear energy, which lower human/natural greenhouse gas emissions, then lower to zero human greenhouse gas emissions. Difficult to reduce are Arctic Region natural methane/carbon levels that are ocean-current temperature dependent and land surface air temperature dependent. Arctic Region natural methane/carbon emissions form a reinforced positive feedback loop that is directly temperature related.

Many world leaders and U.S. politicians remain committed to continuing hydrocarbon energy dependence. Therefore, necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase.

2017 POINT OF NO RETURN

Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099, but most likely 2050-2055.

Global warming protection target established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 need to be met. Since 1990's, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining hydrocarbon economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by ~250-years of hydrocarbon energy use. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide and methane; methane has a much larger 0-20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes extremely difficult to turn off the global warming effects of hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. International Energy Agency (IEA) found we are building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it very difficult to avoid greatly exceeding limit of 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017.

END-PERMIAN MASS EXTINCTION

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's climate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcing, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase. "Worst case" (most probable) projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely global warming scenario.

Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within the End-Permian Mass Extinction Period, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane hydrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. However, within Modern Global Warming Era, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane hydrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is hundreds of times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING

Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase.

It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas emissions. Over time, by stopping human greenhouse gas there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Reduce and stop (extremely limit) use of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify long-term land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit or reduce long-term size of the human population rate of growth. Only implementing stopping use of (extremely limit) hydrocarbon energy is most feasible and timely action.

Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies.

METHANE (CH4)

Increased ocean temperatures increase natural methane releases from Arctic Region methane hydrates deposits. Methane is becoming the driving force for global warming temperature increase. The only realistic way to slow the ocean/land permafrost thaw, and stop methane release, is for humankind to limit global warming by reducing human carbon dioxide emissions of coal, oil, and natural gas.

Arctic sea ice plays a key role in help keep polar regions cool and helps control the global warming system. Ice has a bright surface, it reflects about 80% of the sunlight that hits it back into space. When sea ice melts, it exposes more of the dark ocean surface, resulting in 90% of the sunlight being absorbed, which warms the Arctic tundra and ocean containing large stores of methane hydrate -- methane gas is then released.

Of particular interests, releases of huge reservoirs of methane hydrate stored in marine sediments and stored in Arctic Region's permafrost. The melt-rate of Arctic methane hydrates now is the deciding factor of global warming temperature increase.

POPULATION and LIVING STANDARDS GROWTH

"As the world's population reaches 7 billion in 2011, we should reflect on the many ways in which population dynamics matter to the planet's future. Population growth patterns are linked to nearly every challenge confronting humanity, including poverty reduction, urban pollution, energy production, food and water scarcity, and health. With world population projected to surpass 9 billion by 2050, these issues, and the desire to raise living standards [GDP/population units] at the same time will create a huge challenge. What immediate actions can be taken to deal with growth while ensuring a sustainable future for all of the world's inhabitants?” -Executive Director of the UN Population Fund

Energy consumed relates to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population changes.

GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE

Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Kyoto Protocol Response Identification - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon dioxide emissions need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon dioxide emissions.

Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified measurable results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. Modern Global Warming Reference Level for greenhouse natural and human gases is prior Industrial Age 1750 historic carbon dioxide level of ~280 ppm and methane level ~0.7 ppm. Goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100.