Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099 CE, but most likely 2050-2055 CE.
The EU climate protection target - the 2 oC limit - established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 CE. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by 260-years of using hydrocarbon energy. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4); methane has a much larger 20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 Christian Era (CE) to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide (CO2 at 450-ppm is the 2 oC limit). Global warming carbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017 CE.
Historical Global Warming
To have any reasonable 70% chance of avoiding destruction of human races 2050-2055, global human and natural greenhouse gas emissions are to peak by 2015-2020. If not now corrected, it is almost certain human races will end around 2050-2055. What happens after 2055 end of human races is of little interest. However, some people might want to know what they are missing.
55.8 million years ago -- Caused by excessive human carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 CE and resulting methane emissions - Earth's global warming is similar to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of about 55.8 million years ago (Ma), when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents. Within PETM, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and volcanic carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. Huge amounts of carbon and methane were released into atmosphere and from carbon cycle. PETM globe warmed 5 to 9°C (9 to 16°F). A major difference between current Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase event and PETM is that current temperature increase during beginning stages is about 15 times faster (and accelerating) than PETM event. Global temperature increase is projected to be too fast for Earth or human ecosystems to adapt.
In 2010, our fossil fuel burning released 35 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. By comparison, volcanoes now release about 0.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. How fast carbon and methane enters atmosphere translates to how fast temperature increases after delays. Environmental and societal consequences of warming at such a speed will be devastating.
PETM temperature rose steadily with slow release of greenhouse gas. Today, fossil fuel burning releases carbon about fifteen times greater than PETM, driving global temperature up at an incredible rate. A corresponding rapid increase in powerful methane global warming occurs. Methane also has regional positive warming properties that makes methane an exceptional global warming gas.
Many of the other natural climate feedbacks that we either already observe today or expect to experience probably took place during the PETM warming, as well. Severe drought would have led to increased wildfires (such as would occur within Amazon), injecting more carbon into the atmosphere. Research shows that permafrost on a then glacier-free Antarctica thawed, which would have also released carbon dioxide and methane. Another interesting source of carbon that some scientists hypothesize is burning of peat and coal seams. Peat is decayed vegetation and has a very high carbon content that also releases methane. Peat, which is found in the soil beneath the surface, can be ignited by something like a wildfire and continue to smolder for as long as centuries. Coal seams can be ignited in a similar way, and burn for decades to centuries, releasing huge amounts of carbon into atmosphere.
252.28 million years ago -- Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within End-Permian Mass Extinction Period 252.28 Ma, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates (vented from volcanic Siberian Traps). However, within Modern Global Warming, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.
A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase during the beginning stages is ALSO about 15 times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved who depend upon potable water and global environment resources.
Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated End-Permian Mass Extinction, about which no one survives global warming temperature increase.
Interglacial Cycles -- Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels that are determined by changes of the sun’s relative position to earth orbit (described by Milankovitch Cycle orbital variations and occasional increased volcanic activity). A 1976 CE study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Milankovich's theory corresponded to periods of global warming and cooling.
Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the earth was going through different stages of orbital variation. Resulting from current greenhouse gas emissions, “natural” earth temperature interglacial cooling cycle will not occur again for millions of years.
Natural historical Earth interglacial cycles are ~100,000-year temperature cycles. Current Milankovitch Cycle is now driven by ~250 years of human hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) activity that produces human and natural greenhouse gas emissions. Today's human "climate increase" is about 100 times faster than Milankovitch Cycle "natural change."
Modern Global Warming
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.
Very huge deposits of Arctic Region methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and degradation of organic compound methane (CH4) (methane clathrate is about 85% natural gas). Methane is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period, taking aerosol impacts into account. If methane clathrate gun triggers due to warming Arctic Ocean currents, Earth’s temperature could rapidly rises tens of degrees.
Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.
Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), increased natural methane release, and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Not yet proposed are changes to global warming business as usual politics.
In 1970s, U.S. nuclear energy facilities were capped to assure about 80% of electrical energy supplied would be from hydrocarbon energy. By 1980s, it was well known that global warming was a growing problem. In 1990s - 2010s, politics gamed global warming responses to increase profits from "green" alternatives to nuclear energy. Congressional responses to global warming temperature increase remain sidetracked for continued political and special interest corruption, payoffs, and political control of national and global hydrocarbon energy sectors. While reviewing global warming articles, care should be taken because there are many intentional deceptively written materials and presenters.
Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction? Not without willing politicians and a great deal of time and material spent on nuclear clean energy investments between now and 2017 CE carbon infrastructure lock in of global carbon budget. Since there is no functioning organization or system (except for U.S. military and intelligence services) that is capable of directing necessary changeover to clean nuclear energy, most likely human races end date is 2050-2055 CE.
