Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction?

Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099 CE, but most likely 2050-2055 CE.

The EU climate protection target - the 2 oC limit - established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 CE. Since the 1990s, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining coal economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by 260-years of using hydrocarbon energy. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4); methane has a much larger 20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 Christian Era (CE) to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide (CO2 at 450-ppm is the 2 oC limit). Global warming carbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017 CE.  

Historical Global Warming

To have any reasonable 70% chance of avoiding destruction of human races 2050-2055, global human and natural greenhouse gas emissions are to peak by 2015-2020. If not now corrected, it is almost certain human races will end around 2050-2055. What happens after 2055 end of human races is of little interest. However, some people might want to know what they are missing.

55.8 million years ago -- Caused by excessive human carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 CE and resulting methane emissions - Earth's global warming is similar to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of about 55.8 million years ago (Ma), when Pangaea was splitting into separate continents. Within PETM, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and volcanic carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. Huge amounts of carbon and methane were released into atmosphere and from carbon cycle. PETM globe warmed 5 to 9°C (9 to 16°F). A major difference between current Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase event and PETM is that current temperature increase during beginning stages is about 15 times faster (and accelerating) than PETM event. Global temperature increase is projected to be too fast for Earth or human ecosystems to adapt.

In 2010, our fossil fuel burning released 35 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. By comparison, volcanoes now release about 0.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. How fast carbon and methane enters atmosphere translates to how fast temperature increases after delays. Environmental and societal consequences of warming at such a speed will be devastating.

PETM temperature rose steadily with slow release of greenhouse gas. Today, fossil fuel burning releases carbon about fifteen times greater than PETM, driving global temperature up at an incredible rate. A corresponding rapid increase in powerful methane global warming occurs. Methane also has regional positive warming properties that makes methane an exceptional global warming gas.   

Many of the other natural climate feedbacks that we either already observe today or expect to experience probably took place during the PETM warming, as well. Severe drought would have led to increased wildfires (such as would occur within Amazon), injecting more carbon into the atmosphere. Research shows that permafrost on a then glacier-free Antarctica thawed, which would have also released carbon dioxide and methane. Another interesting source of carbon that some scientists hypothesize is burning of peat and coal seams. Peat is decayed vegetation and has a very high carbon content that also releases methane. Peat, which is found in the soil beneath the surface, can be ignited by something like a wildfire and continue to smolder for as long as centuries. Coal seams can be ignited in a similar way, and burn for decades to centuries, releasing huge amounts of carbon into atmosphere.

252.28 million years ago -- Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within End-Permian Mass Extinction Period 252.28 Ma, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates (vented from volcanic Siberian Traps). However, within Modern Global Warming, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane clathrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming Era temperature increase during the beginning stages is ALSO about 15 times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved who depend upon potable water and global environment resources.

Modern Global Warming Era is an accelerated End-Permian Mass Extinction, about which no one survives global warming temperature increase.

Interglacial Cycles -- Natural historical Earth interglacial temperature cycles result from natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) levels that are determined by changes of the sun’s relative position to earth orbit (described by Milankovitch Cycle orbital variations and occasional increased volcanic activity). A 1976 CE study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Milankovich's theory corresponded to periods of global warming and cooling.  

Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the earth was going through different stages of orbital variation. Resulting from current greenhouse gas emissions, “natural” earth temperature interglacial cooling cycle will not occur again for millions of years.  

Natural historical Earth interglacial cycles are ~100,000-year temperature cycles. Current Milankovitch Cycle is now driven by ~250 years of human hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) activity that produces human and natural greenhouse gas emissions. Today's human "climate increase" is about 100 times faster than Milankovitch Cycle "natural change."   

Modern Global Warming

Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increased ~39% and methane (CH4) concentration is increased ~164%. 1750 CE tropospheric concentration greenhouse concentrations levels were 280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels 700 ppb. Carbon dioxide concentrations levels are ~390 ppm and for methane are ~1,850 ppb.  

Very huge deposits of Arctic Region methane clathrate (or methane hydrates) results from millions of years of natural leaking oil and natural gas deposits and degradation of organic compound methane (CH4) (methane clathrate is about 85% natural gas). Methane is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20-year period, taking aerosol impacts into account. If methane clathrate gun triggers due to warming Arctic Ocean currents, Earth’s temperature could rapidly rises tens of degrees.  

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's paleoclimate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcings, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations and are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 CE human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), increased natural methane release, and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Most probable projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Not yet proposed are changes to global warming business as usual politics.  

In 1970s, U.S. nuclear energy facilities were capped to assure about 80% of electrical energy supplied would be from hydrocarbon energy. By 1980s, it was well known that global warming was a growing problem. In 1990s - 2010s, politics gamed global warming responses to increase profits from "green" alternatives to nuclear energy. Congressional responses to global warming temperature increase remain sidetracked for continued political and special interest corruption, payoffs, and political control of national and global hydrocarbon energy sectors. While reviewing global warming articles, care should be taken because there are many intentional deceptively written materials and presenters.   

Can human races be saved from 2050-2099 CE destruction? Not without willing politicians and a great deal of time and material spent on nuclear clean energy investments between now and 2017 CE carbon infrastructure lock in of global carbon budget. Since there is no functioning organization or system (except for U.S. military and intelligence services) that is capable of directing necessary changeover to clean nuclear energy, most likely human races end date is 2050-2055 CE.  

Global Warming - Northern Alberta oil sand carbon budget lock-in

Rev 23 Jan 2012

Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, economies, or jobs. Carbon budget is a physical geophysical event. Exceeding the carbon budget means Earth’s systems of temperature regulation are in thermal runaway; Earth shall exceed habitable temperatures 2050-2099 Christan Era (CE).

Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Carbon infrastructures last more than 50 years resulting in nation’s hydrocarbon economies locking-in the global carbon budget. An important part of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in is Canada’s proposed oil-sand extraction methods for the proposed north-south Keystone XL pipeline. Oil-sand extraction greenhouse gases emitted add significantly to the global warming carbon budget.       

A large time lag to rebuild a clean energy infrastructure results in a delayed Earth temperature responses to emitted now greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date human hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) with natural methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Natural Arctic Region methane emissions effects the temperature increase and is a greenhouse gas variable that needs close consideration.

Global warming locking-in of the global carbon budget point of no-return comes around 2017 CE.  

Canadian crude oil extraction methods adds to the global carbon budget. Crude oil extrication from bitumen results in a measurable factor of global warming temperature increase over the near term and far term.   

Keystone XL Pipeline

Canada has over 170 billion barrels of oil recoverable with today's technology, making it second only to Saudi Arabia as an oil resource country.

The U.S. $13 billion Keystone pipeline system was/is to play an important role in linking a secure and growing supply of Canadian crude oil with the largest refining markets in the United States, significantly improving North American security energy supply. Proposed ‘Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion Project’ would begin at Alberta Canada and extend southeast through Saskatchewan, Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. Keystone Pipeline (Phase II) is through Nebraska and Kansas to serve markets at Cushing, Oklahoma before continuing through Oklahoma to a delivery point near existing terminals in Nederland, Texas to serve the Port Arthur, Texas marketplace.  

Keystone XL is one of TWO PROJECTS that oil sands producers have been counting on to boost returns. Canada now exports about 2 million barrels of oil a day, almost all to the United States. Government and industry officials say a major delay in PROJECT #1 north to south Keystone XL decision would prompt increased efforts to push forward PROJECT #2 east to west Enbridge Inc's C$ 5.5 billion (US$ 5.5 billion) Northern Gateway pipeline across British Columbia to the West Coast, where more than half a million barrels of crude a day could be loaded onto tankers and shipped to Asia.   

If Alberta's oil sands, the world’s third largest oil reserve were combined with U.S. oil reserves they would be more than adequate for American oil independence from outside North America oil importation.

Oil Sand Bitumen Emissions

Synthetic crude is an intermediate product produced when an extra-heavy or unconventional oil source is upgraded into a transportable form. Synthetic crude is then shipped to oil refineries where it is further upgraded into finished products. Alberta crude oil production is expected to grow strongly, but could be limited by the “global greenhouse gas emissions budget.” Oil sand extraction uses hydrocarbon heat (oil/natural gas) extraction, which emits much greenhouse gases. Global warming gases are vented when synthetic oil is extracted from bitumen and also from standing open pit mining.

⇛ bitumen - A black viscous mixture of hydrocarbons obtained naturally or as a residue from petroleum distillation

⇛ oil sands - Sand, clay or other minerals saturated with bitumen

⇛ synthetic crude oil - Similar to natural crude oil, created by upgrading bitumen from oil sands.

⇛ greenhouse gas - Any of the atmospheric gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect by absorbing infrared radiation produced by solar warming of the Earth's surface. They include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (NO2), and water vapor. Although greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, the elevated levels especially of carbon dioxide and methane that have been observed in recent decades are directly related, at least in part, to human activities such as the burning of hydrocarbon (fossil) fuels and the deforestation of tropical forests.

Some synthetic oil adverse greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by using nuclear energy to heat bitumen and incorporation of a capture process for vented bitumen greenhouse gases.  

Oil sands synthetic oil extraction incorporates both mining ("conventional" methods) and in-situ (“non-conventional”) production methods. Mining excavation of the bitumen-rich sand uses open pit mining methods which is the most efficient method of extraction (ie, least costly) when there are large deposits of bitumen with little overburden. In-situ methods involve processing the oil sand deposit so that the bitumen is removed while the sand remains in place. Oil heat extraction from bitumen can be used for both mining and in-situ. In-situ methods are used for oil sands that are too deep to support surface mining operations to an economical degree. 80% of the resource in Northern Alberta oil sands lies deep below surface overburden.  

Open pit strip mining remains is least costly main extraction method, but two in situ techniques are likely to be used more in the future: cyclic steam stimulation and steam-assisted gravity drainage. Injected steam into the formation heats bitumen, allowing it to flow and be pumped to the surface or extracted from Canadian Athabasca Oil Sands. Oil sand processing can produce significant (massive) amounts of global warming gases.   

Nuclear power could make steam and electricity for extracting sand oil. A proposal suggests that a single Candu 6 reactor configured to produce 75% steam and 25% electricity would replace 6 million cubic metres (220  terajoule (TJ)) per day of natural gas and support production of 175-200,000 barrels per day of oil. Nuclear heating would save the emission of 3.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. (European Union CO2 emissions in 2008 was 4.2 million metric tonnes, U.S. emission 7.1 million metric tonnes.) Canadian oil output from tar sands is forecast to reach three million barrels per day.

Given the limitations of supplying steam over more than 25 km (15.5 miles), small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) with capacities of some around 100 MWe could be more suitable for individual oil extraction and heating projects. U.S. experience of small light water reactors (LWRs) has been of very small military power plants, such as the reactor which operated at McMurdo Sound in Antarctica 1962-72, generating a total of 78 million kWh. There was also an Army program for small reactor development, and some successful small reactors from the main national program commenced in the 1950s. One was the Big Rock Point operated for 35 years to 1997. Anti nuclear politics has for decades increased costs of nuclear power and has opposed U.S. nuclear energy development and small light water reactor development.    

Problem with any proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the bitumen steam extraction process is that the process increases the oil cost per barrel. Decades of selling “alternative renewable energy” was left Democrats’ stated U.S. national energy policy. U.S. left Democrats, President Obama, anti-nuclear groups, and “environmentalist” opposed both completing the Keystone XL pipeline and also opposed developing clean nuclear energy as part of U.S. energy planning. It will take at least two years of planning, R&D, and development to devise an effective alternative to decades of alternative-energy promotion; that leaves only three years of clean infrastructure implementation to correct for global 2017 CE carbon-budget lock-in. An increasing relevant problem is that all government department data and reporting on global warming is suspect of containing significant errors and omissions. Internet hacking is an increasing problem to public and private information integrity. Until information errors and omissions are corrected, there can be no reliable global warming energy planning. Due to decades of delays and abuses, correcting global warming temperature increase is going to be very expensive.    

With left Democrat neo communists locked into conflicting unreasonable energy policies and are anti science oreniated, there will be no timely U.S. political responses to U.S. need for energy self sufficiency or to curbing global warming temperature increase. U.S. energy prices and global warming greenhouse gas emissions are to continue to increase. There is to be a 2017 CE lock-in of the global carbon budget with continued global temperature increase past 2050-2099 CE.