Global Warming 2050-2099

Increasing atmospheric natural and human (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) result in a cataclysmic global temperature increase. The first step to a solution is to acknowledge that global warming temperature increases result in human races’ life or death epic destiny. Without a world leader who will resolve implementing effective global warming mitigation, the human races and their economies terminate 2050-2099 CE -- but more closely to 2050-2055 CE.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Increasing 0-40 Year Human Race Lifespan

Under current accelerating rates of carbon and methane gases release, human life ends 2050-2055 CE. If Arctic Region methane clathrates carbon reserves become explosively unstable by temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides -- global warming temperature quickly rises and there are no more human races. Therefore, estimates for the continuation of human-life range from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years.

If the Arctic Region water is warm enough to melt the fringes of the Arctic Ocean ice cap, the water is now warm enough to melt huge amounts of global warming methane clathrates, which releases the very powerful methane global warming gas. Further destabilization of the Arctic Region methane clathrate cap is very threatening to human life continued existence:

"Study finds warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica"

April 25, 2012

PHYS.ORG

Reporting this week in the journal Nature, an international team of scientists led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has established that warm ocean currents are the dominant cause of recent ice loss from Antarctica. New techniques have been used to differentiate, for the first time, between the two known causes of melting ice shelves - warm ocean currents attacking the underside, and warm air melting from above. This finding brings scientists a step closer to providing reliable projections of future sea-level rise.

Researchers used 4.5 million measurements made by a laser instrument mounted on NASA's ICESat satellite to map the changing thickness of almost all the floating ice shelves around Antarctica, revealing the pattern of ice-shelf melt across the continent. Of the 54 ice shelves mapped, 20 are being melted by warm ocean currents, most of which are in West Antarctica.

In every case, the inland glaciers that flow down to the coast and feed into these thinning ice shelves have accelerated, draining more ice into the sea and contributing to sea level rise and water temperature increase.

Lead author Dr Hamish Pritchard from British Antarctic Survey, which is part of the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), said: "In most places in Antarctica, we can't explain the ice-shelf thinning through melting of snow at the surface, so it has to be driven by warm ocean currents melting them from below. We've looked all around the Antarctic coast and we see a clear pattern: in all the cases where ice shelves are being melted by the ocean, the inland glaciers are speeding up. It's this glacier acceleration that's responsible for most of the increase in ice loss from the continent and this is contributing to sea-level rise.

"What's really interesting is just how sensitive these glaciers seem to be. Some ice shelves are thinning by a few metres a year and, in response, the glaciers drain billions of tons of ice into the sea. This supports the idea that ice shelves are important in slowing down the glaciers that feed them, controlling the loss of ice from the Antarctic ice sheet. It means that we can lose an awful lot of ice to the sea without ever having summers warm enough to make the snow on top of the glaciers melt - the oceans can do all the work from below.

"But this does raise the question of why this is happening now. We think that it's linked to changes in wind patterns. Studies have shown that Antarctic winds have changed because of changes in climate, and that this has affected the strength and direction of ocean currents. As a result warm water is funnelled beneath the floating ice. These studies and our new results therefore suggest that Antarctica's glaciers are responding rapidly to a changing climate."

A different picture is seen on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (the long stretch of land pointing towards South America). Here, the ice-shelf thinning found by this study can be explained by warm summer winds directly melting the snow on the ice-shelf surfaces. Both patterns, of widespread ocean-driven melting and this summer melting on the Antarctic Peninsula, can therefore be attributed to Antarctica's changing wind patterns. This research is part of international efforts to improve understanding of the interactions between ice and climate in order to improve the reliability of sea-level rise projections. Professor David Vaughan is the leader of ice2sea - a major EU-funded FP7 programme. Ice2sea will improve projections of the contribution of ice to future sea-level rise. He said, "This study shows very clearly why the Antarctic ice sheet is currently losing ice, which is a major advance. But the real significance is that it also shows the key to predicting how the ice sheet will change in the future is in understanding the oceans. Perhaps we should not only be looking to the skies above Antarctica, but also into the surrounding oceans."

The study was carried out by an international team from British Antarctic Survey, Utrecht University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Earth & Space Research in Corvallis, Oregon. NASA's ICESat – Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite – measurements were collected during the period 2003 – 2008 to detect changes in ice-shelf thickness through time.

Provided by British Antarctic Survey

Fin

Top-level Space Assessment Missions - ICESat-2 and SMAP

Unfortunately ICESat failed as predicted March 2009. The scheduled launch of ICESat replacement, ICESat-2, is about 2015, but is now in a funding delay by anti-science President Obama. NASA could be forced to delay two approved, top-tier Earth science missions by more than one year due to the poorly defined nature of President Obama's 2010 Federal Budget. Delayed top-level space assessment missions are: Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) missions. Although NASA requested $75 million and $132 million this year for ICESat-2 and SMAP, respectively, NASA could be forced to reduce planned spending on ICESat-2 by $22 million in order to stay within the $1.4 billion spending ceiling Congress appropriated for Earth science initiatives of 2011. SMAP funding would have to be reduced by $30 million.

Both missions topped the National Research Council’s list of large-scale climate-monitoring priorities in its 2007 Earth science decadal survey. ICESat-2 is designed to continue measurements of changes in polar ice-sheet mass to anticipate changes to global sea levels. SMAP, is designed to improve weather forecasts and flood and drought predictions.

Maintaining the launch schedule of ICESat-2 and SMAP data collection is essential to measure direction and progress of the effectiveness of global warming mitigations.

Global Warming Response

"Obama vows to fight for climate action, make global warming a key 2012 issue" Fox Nation, 26 April 2012. The combination of greenhouse gases Arctic Region methane (from warming deposits of methane clathrates) and increasing hydrocarbon energy gases releases, define human-life range of existence as from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years. If President Obama is to influence human lifespan, he must quickly implement an effective energy plan that reduces natural and human greenhouse gas emissions.

To prevent the destruction of all human life from global warming temperature increase by 2050-2055 CE, human and natural greenhouse gases must peak by 2020 CE and decline thereafter. After 250-years of using global warming hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas), the only clean energy source with the energy capacity to displace carbon producing hydrocarbon energy is NUCLEAR ENERGY. ONLY by rapidly replacing hydrocarbon energy with clean nuclear energy can the lifespan of human life be extended. Human life expectancy depends upon how quickly and how much global nuclear energy capacity is expanded and how well nuclear fuel cycle is expanded.

CARBON DIOXIDE and METHANE CONCENTRATIONS

Earth's Energy IMBALANCE

A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are the primary force driving global warming.

Pinpointing the magnitude of Earth's "energy imbalance" is fundamental to GLOBAL WARMING science because it offers a direct measure of the state of the climate. Energy imbalance calculations also serve as the foundation for projections of future climate change. If the imbalance is Positive then more energy enters the system -- Earth grows warmer. If the imbalance is Negative -- Earth grows cooler.

A NASA team concluded that Earth has absorbed more than half a watt more solar energy per square meter than it let off throughout the six year study period. According to calculations conducted, the 0.58 watts per square meter imbalance implies that carbon dioxide levels need to be reduced to about 350 parts per million (ppm) to restore the energy budget to equilibrium. The most recent measurements show that carbon dioxide levels are currently 392 ppm (well above balanced equilibrium state of 350 ppm carbon dioxide). Scientists expect global warming gas concentration to continue to rise in the future -- reference "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics," James Hansen, director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, December 2011.

Positive atmospheric energy imbalance increase global warming temperature that exceeds Earth’s capacity to sustain any of the lives of 9 billion people by 2050-2055. There is NO SAFE carbon dioxide level above 350 ppm.

LEAST COST GLOBAL WARMING OPTION

Population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size drives human energy consumption and carbon dioxide levels. Increase population and/or GDP and energy use increases.

Human hydrocarbon energy use increases natural carbon dioxide, which increases natural methane atmospheric levels. Combination of natural and human greenhouse gas accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change.

A perplexing issue with global warming is communicating the seriousness of global temperature increase. At current rate of hydrocarbon (coal, oil, natural gas) infrastructure installation, Earth's global carbon budget is exceeded about 2017. Critical 450 ppm carbon dioxide level is exceeded about 2030. Resulting human races termination from global warming is most likely 2050-2055.

Over the coming few years, the least-cost global warming option is lowering global warming by steadily transforming global human energy systems to nuclear energy, which lower human/natural greenhouse gas emissions, then lower to zero human greenhouse gas emissions. Difficult to reduce are Arctic Region natural methane/carbon levels that are ocean-current temperature dependent and land surface air temperature dependent. Arctic Region natural methane/carbon emissions form a reinforced positive feedback loop that is directly temperature related.

Many world leaders and U.S. politicians remain committed to continuing hydrocarbon energy dependence. Therefore, necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase.

2017 POINT OF NO RETURN

Existing global warming temperature increase projections identifies end of human races 2050-2099, but most likely 2050-2055.

Global warming protection target established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 need to be met. Since 1990's, Europe-U.S. politicians locked-in funding “alternative fuels renewable green energy,” eliminating nuclear energy, and retaining hydrocarbon economies. China-India governments are also facing hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in.” Key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget” is to reverse damage done by ~250-years of hydrocarbon energy use. Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Carbon budget has nothing to do with political agendas, climate change legislation, carbon controls, carbon storage, the economy, or geopolitical carbon footprint. Carbon budget is a physical event. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Russia, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. Note that the term "carbon (C)" is inclusive of carbon dioxide and methane; methane has a much larger 0-20-year, 100-year, and 500-year global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes extremely difficult to turn off the global warming effects of hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural methane/carbon dioxide release. International Energy Agency (IEA) found we are building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it very difficult to avoid greatly exceeding limit of 450-ppm carbon dioxide. Global warming hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in” is around 2017.

END-PERMIAN MASS EXTINCTION

Tools for assessing the expected climate effects of actual levels of human-made and natural changes of atmospheric composition include (1) Earth's climate history, showing how climate responded in the past to changes of boundary conditions including atmospheric composition, (2) modern climate change, especially global satellite observations, coincident with rapidly changing human-made and natural climate forcing, and (3) climate models and theory, which aid interpretation of observations are useful for projecting future climate/temperature under realistic most probable to 2099 human and natural temperature forcing scenarios.

Stresses of increased populations, increased hydrocarbon energy use, increased gross domestic product (GDP), and resulting increased global temperatures is evident. Human factors have not changed to accommodate necessary greenhouse gas reduction and resulting global warming temperature increase. "Worst case" (most probable) projections over time include uncontrolled population growth, limited technology changes, limited changes to energy use, critical political decisions not made, limited funding for effective clean nuclear energy, and several proposed impossible legislated changes to fundamental laws of physics by untoward politicians and surrogates. Note that the worst case temperature forcing scenario is the most likely global warming scenario.

Atmospheric gas composition, physical properties, and quantities determine rate of Earth’s global warming properties. Within the End-Permian Mass Extinction Period, natural volcanic gases and natural ocean methane hydrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates. However, within Modern Global Warming Era, human hydrocarbon economy energy use (coal, oil, natural gas) and responding natural ocean methane hydrates and carbon dioxide release dominate temperature change rates.

A major difference between Modern Global Warming temperature increase event and End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma is that Modern Global Warming temperature increase during the beginning stages is hundreds of times faster than the End-Permian Period and there are more than 9 billion people involved.

LACK OF GLOBAL WARMING PLANNING

Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase.

It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas emissions. Over time, by stopping human greenhouse gas there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Reduce and stop (extremely limit) use of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify long-term land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit or reduce long-term size of the human population rate of growth. Only implementing stopping use of (extremely limit) hydrocarbon energy is most feasible and timely action.

Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building hydrocarbon “infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies.

METHANE (CH4)

Increased ocean temperatures increase natural methane releases from Arctic Region methane hydrates deposits. Methane is becoming the driving force for global warming temperature increase. The only realistic way to slow the ocean/land permafrost thaw, and stop methane release, is for humankind to limit global warming by reducing human carbon dioxide emissions of coal, oil, and natural gas.

Arctic sea ice plays a key role in help keep polar regions cool and helps control the global warming system. Ice has a bright surface, it reflects about 80% of the sunlight that hits it back into space. When sea ice melts, it exposes more of the dark ocean surface, resulting in 90% of the sunlight being absorbed, which warms the Arctic tundra and ocean containing large stores of methane hydrate -- methane gas is then released.

Of particular interests, releases of huge reservoirs of methane hydrate stored in marine sediments and stored in Arctic Region's permafrost. The melt-rate of Arctic methane hydrates now is the deciding factor of global warming temperature increase.

POPULATION and LIVING STANDARDS GROWTH

"As the world's population reaches 7 billion in 2011, we should reflect on the many ways in which population dynamics matter to the planet's future. Population growth patterns are linked to nearly every challenge confronting humanity, including poverty reduction, urban pollution, energy production, food and water scarcity, and health. With world population projected to surpass 9 billion by 2050, these issues, and the desire to raise living standards [GDP/population units] at the same time will create a huge challenge. What immediate actions can be taken to deal with growth while ensuring a sustainable future for all of the world's inhabitants?” -Executive Director of the UN Population Fund

Energy consumed relates to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population changes.

GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE

Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, climatically important amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other compounds emitted today continue to influence the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Kyoto Protocol Response Identification - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, while not fully considering increasing atmospheric methane considerations, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon dioxide emissions need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater earlier reductions of human global carbon dioxide emissions.

Global Warming Response - World Leaders must establish the intent to save human races. This identification of intent is a Modern Global Warming temperature reduction goal. A greenhouse gas-reduction statement must contain identified measurable results over time, carbon dioxide and methane atmospheric levels, units of measurements, Earth temperatures, consider all global warming forces, probabilities of achieving events, stated starting levels, and goals. Modern Global Warming Reference Level for greenhouse natural and human gases is prior Industrial Age 1750 historic carbon dioxide level of ~280 ppm and methane level ~0.7 ppm. Goal is to achieve human survival well past 2100.