Showing posts with label Arctic Region. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arctic Region. Show all posts

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Climate Change 2013-2050


A single extreme-weather event cannot be linked to global warming climate change because climate change is the condition of climate changing over decades. Weather is a daily, weekly, or seasonal event. Obviously when Earth's average temperature increases (or decreases) climate conditions change over time. As global temperature increases there is more atmospheric energy and more moisture within atmosphere. Accepted is global warming climate change produces in some locations severe weather conditions more frequently.

Prior to end of 21st Century global warming temperatures will have increased global warming temperature exceeding 6.4 degrees Celsius, created by global warming gases. Because lack of response to continuing increased greenhouse gases results in human race termination by 2050-2055. Earth's average carbon dioxide and methane level at 2050 determines climate Earth's conditions for following decades. It is global warming climate change conditions from 2013 to 2050 that is most important as it directly relates to human survival.      

With non responsive President Obama and U.S. Congress, global warming climate change proceeds as follows. Earth's  2017 'carbon infrastructure' greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions exceeds 'Earth carbon cycle' ability to process carbon dioxide, producing increased global warming of 3.4 degrees Celsius around 2040. Stored Arctic Region methane hydrate becomes increasingly dissociated releasing global warming gas methane. Human race ends 2050-2055.

Only acceptable response to global warming is to get rid of non responsive self serving politicians.   

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

LAND SUBSIDENCE and GLOBAL WARMING are CASCADE FAILURE MODES

Since infrastructure buildup of 1960s and prior, U.S. political activism has combined with elected self interests blocked further development of U.S water management systems. Due to increased population, increased gross domestic products (GDPs) overdrafting groundwaters/aquifers, global warming climate change, and very active untoward political special interests -- the most chronic global water problem is water-overdraft land subsidence. Unless there are significant and rapid global energy changes, human races end 2050-2055 by 250-years of carbon and methane atmospheric accumulations.

Because of previous and ongoing neglect of care for water cycle and systems for gathering, storing, and distribution of potable water, most of the world will very-likely (ie, have greater than 90% probability) face a severe or greater water shortage.  

Anti science U.S., left Democratic and special interest movements promote social projects, corruption, paybacks, and criminal activity that has undermined public knowledge of scientific reasoning. Having undermined public acceptance of the scientific method and reporting, politicians are then free to create social and environmental problems only politicians can solve. Without a major informative scientific based solutions to systemic physical life and death issues, untoward politicians continue their corruption and disregard of human life.

By intentional benign neglect, media lack of coverage of vital human races issues is criminal.   

CASCADE FAILURE

Cascading failures usually begin when one part of the system fails resulting in complete system failure. Global life support system failures for human survival include: (1) land subsidence and saltwater inundation resulting from underground water drafts and (2) global warming temperature increase. Cascade failures case regional and national water system failures and deadly global warming runaway.

Land Subsidence/Saltwater intrusion - In the case of water source storage capacity, a cascade failure occurs when underground water drafts cause land subsidence collapse. Groundwater/aquifer availability cascade fails result in permanent decreases in stored water, groundwater water flow, and water supplies, which leads to more water overdrafting and less underground water storage and less sustainable water cycle capacity. Saltwater intrusion into groundwater and aquifers is also a cascade failure overdraft problem that destroyed much potable water capacity.  

Global Warming - Global warming temperature increase cascade failures are several, but among the important is Arctic Region warming release of global warming gas methane that leads to more regional (and global) temperature increase.  A greenhouse gas emission "hockey stick" curve identifies a cascade failure mode. Exceeding "global carbon budget" is a cascade failure. Global warming cascade failures are sometimes referred to as exceeding "tipping points."  Exceeding global carbon budget also exceeds established Earth temperature control limits.

Feedback can amplify climatic processes where changing one quantity (the amount of carbon dioxide/methane in the atmosphere) can change a second quantity (rising temperatures on Earth) which in turn changes the first quantity (even more carbon dioxide/methane released). Decrease in potability water availability feedback also occurs with decreased groundwater and aquifer storage capacity.  

Major tipping points for the Earth are greenhouse gas emissions of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, global warming leading to severe weather events, polar ice melting and widespread droughts, oceanic acidification and melting permafrost, and dying rain forests that release enormous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Very bad things happen when we pass a tipping point. Tipping points are subtle. They are reached in tiny increments each day with no way to measure the exact time or event that pushes a threat into irreversibility. Once that happens, it is cascade failure and difficult or even impossible to reverse the threat as rolling feedbacks strengthen the failure.  

A “bombshell” report by International Energy Agency in late 2011 notes that without positive action now, by 2017 global carbon dioxide emissions are “locked-in” by existing power plants, factories and vehicles that results in exceeding "global carbon cycle." Rising hydrocarbon (coal, oil, natural gas) energy use will lead to irreversible and catastrophic global warming and all human races death.

SUBSURFACE WATER

When you deplete groundwater stored and water mine aquifers -- you have run out of potable water. Regions and human races are living on borrowed time when they overdraft underground water. There are no capable central authorities authorized to correct surface and subsurface water issues.    

It is transfer of groundwater and aquifer mining that results in ground subsidence, which results in permanent compression of ground-structure and decrease in essential water storage capacity. Over time, because of population growth, increased gross domestic products (GDPs), increased global water demands, and not properly manage underground water resources, their results in essential UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE-CAPACITY that quickly diminish, becomes very critically limited, which leads to cascade water failure modes.      

Exceeding of maximum sustainable water yield -- Knowledge of underground water is paramount in sustaining water supplies for drinking, agriculture, and industry. When pumping from an aquifer extracts water faster than it can be recharged, the system is out of equilibrium, and the water table will continue to drop until recharge increases or pumping decreases. The groundwater/aquifer is said to be in overdraft. Maximum sustainable yield refers to the maximum use that a renewable resource can sustain without impairing its renewability through natural growth or replenishment. Enhanced maximum sustainable can use artificial recharge methods to increase annual water yield.  

As part of the water cycle, underground water sources produce flow of rivers, streams, and lakes. Where surface water, such as lakes and rivers, are scarce, inaccessible, or water cycle has changed. It is groundwater, aquifer supplies that provides water needs of people. Groundwater and aquifer depletion, a term often defined as long-term water-level declines caused by sustained underground water pumping, is a key issue associated with underground water use. Too many areas of the U.S. are experiencing groundwater/aquifer depletion that have exceeded maximum sustainable water limits.

Excessive pumping can overdraw the groundwater "bank account" -- Increased demands on groundwater resources have overstressed aquifers in many areas of the world, not just in arid regions. Pumping water out of the ground faster than it is replenished is exceeding maximum sustainable water yield and over years causes water supply problems.

In response to over pumping, volume of groundwater in storage is decreasing in many areas of the U.S. and global water supplies. Groundwater depletion is primarily caused by sustained groundwater over pumping. Some of the negative effects of groundwater depletion:

o  Lowering of the water table
o  Increased costs for the user
o  Reduction of water in streams, rivers, and lakes resulting from human induced water cycle changes.
o  Increased groundwater and aquifer saltwater inundation.
o  Land subsidence - Land subsidence occurs when large amounts of groundwater have been withdrawn from certain types of rocks, such as fine-grained sediments. The rock compacts because the water is partly responsible for holding the ground up. When the water is withdrawn, the rocks falls in on itself, prominently removing underground water storage capacity. You may not notice land subsidence because it can occur over large areas (thousands of square kilometers) rather than in a small spot, like a sinkhole. That does not mean that subsidence is not a big event -- states like California, Texas, and other states have suffered extensive land subsidence permanent damage.
o  Deterioration of water quality
o  Depletion of water resources
o  Permanent loss of below ground storage capacity
o  Increased need for water desalination facilities. Water desalination technology is mature and is unlikely to decrease desalination energy demands, decrease construction and operating costs, or adequately augment natural water cycle.  

Groundwater depletion, or excessive removal of subsurface water, results in land subsidence and is most often caused by human activities. Basic cause of land subsidence is a loss of support structures below ground and permanent loss of below ground storage capacity.

Social divergence of 1960s stopped many national water projects. It needs to be understood restarting water projects to match existing water conditions take at least two decades. It does take more than one decade to design, fund, and construct new water facilities to meet current needs. Add to that it can take more than one decade for collection and distribution of gathered available surface water. To meet future water needs -- increase funding and increase size of projects. By the time necessary water augmentation is in place, the water crisis has grown to a water catastrophe. U.S. Congress needs to act now.

Mining Water -- Mining is the extraction of a substance of value from the earth such as water or oil, natural gas, etc. Groundwater overdraft and aquifer water-mining are most important water problems in the world. Because land subsidences is easily measurable with satellites, satellite alterminitor recordings are to be used as a metric to evaluate global and regional water safe yield levels and identify water sustainability problem areas.   

Fossil water - Fossil water mining is now common self destructive practice. Fossil water or paleowater is groundwater that has remained sealed in an aquifer for a long period of time. Water can rest underground in "fossil aquifers" for thousands or even millions of years. Changes in the surrounding geology sealed aquifers from further replenishing from precipitation, the water becomes trapped within, and is known as fossil water. Removing water from aquifers that do not adequately replenish is called "water-mining," once mined that natural non-replenished water resource is gone forever. However, there are artificial methods to recharge some aquifers. Along with running out of water sustainable yield, water mining can result in ground subsidence.

Ground Subsidence - When groundwater and/or aquifers are overdrafted there occurs ground subsidence (ie, a lowering of ground level caused by compression resulting from, in this case, excessive below ground water withdrawal). The overdraft of such aquifer systems results in permanent subsidence. That is, permanent decrease in underground storage and in related ground failures.

Drafting Coastal Aquifers - Drafting coastal aquifer and delta water systems can result in permanent saltwater inundated from ocean water into potable underground water channels. Quality of potable underground waters are permanently destroyed by infusion of ocean saltwater and below ground water migrations. Compounding problems of coastal aquifer equilibrium is a projected 3.2-feet (1-meter) sea level rise by 2099.   

Much of the world's population is located near coastal areas. Many of the world's coasts are becoming increasingly urban. In fact, 14 of the world's 17 largest cities are located along coasts, including, Bangkok, Jakarta, and Shanghai and lesser California Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Monterey Bay area. In addition, two-fifths of cities with populations of 1 million to 10 million people are located near coastlines. The urbanization of coasts brings with it coastal development (including demands for fresh water and sewage treatment), damage to coastal ecosystems, and extensive damage to subsurface water systems.

Coastal aquifers tend to have wedge shaped zones of saltwater underlying the potable freshwater. Under natural conditions the boundary between the freshwater and saltwater tends to be relatively stable, but pumping can cause saltwater to migrate inland, resulting in permanent saltwater contamination of the water supply. Continued drafting of contaminated water sources accelerates water supply degeneration.   

Migration of natural "pollutants" due to drafting underground water occurs within some regions. Inland aquifers can experience similar saline/fresh water boundary problems when withdrawal of good-quality water from upper parts of inland aquifers can allow underlying saline water to move upward, which permanently degrades water source quality.

Because subground seawater salinity and natural contaminants migrations are easily satellite measurable, land altitude is used as a metric to help evaluate global and regional water safe yield levels and identify water sustainability problem areas.

Land Subsidence -- More than 80 percent of subsidence within U.S. is related to the withdrawal of below ground water.  

LAND SUBSIDENCE IS A PERMANENT WATER SYSTEM CASCADE FAILURE MODE.

IT IS VERY CRITICAL THAT GROUNDWATER AND AQUIFERS NO LONGER BE OVERDRAFTED. TO STOP GROUND SUBSIDENCE AND SALTWATER INUNDATION, ESTABLISH GROUNDWATER REPLENISHMENT (GWR) SYSTEMS AND PROPER WATER SUPPLY AUGMENTATION.  

Land subsidence from water drafting has documented damaged roads, sewer lines, flood-retention structures, water pipes, and many other types of infrastructure. However, little has been presented to estimate regional and global water losses. There is a need for increased satellite reporting of the growing problem of land subsidence due to belowground water pumping.  

Land subsidence and saltwater inundation play an increasing detrimental role in the management of water resources for a population prior to 2050-2055 that exceeds 9-billion people dying from global warming temperature increase.     

Alluvial Plains -- The type of sediment deposits cause some critical water resources being drafted and experiencing permanent land subsidence are in alluvial plains. An alluvial plain is a largely flat landform created by the deposition of sediment over a long period of time (millions of years) by one or more rivers coming from highland regions, from which alluvial soil forms. Examples of alluvium planes are many:  o Padan plain (Po basin or Pianura Padana), Italy, area of 17,756 mile square (46,000 kilometer square  o Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region, California, USA area 1,100 miles square (2,849 kilometer square)  o etc.

California's critical Central Valley (area of approximately 22,500 miles square (58,275 kilometers square)) is formed by loose sediment alluvial deposits that are easily subjected to land subsidence from underground water overdrafting. Once the land subsides, under soils collapses, and groundwater storage capacity is permanently reduced. Water management is completely ignored by the politics of California Department of Water Resources Board, State Legislature leadership, California Secretary for Natural Resources, Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP), and other political special interests.       

Manage Water Resources -- It can take 20-30 years to significantly change water supply resources -- if timely change is to occur, you better start now.

Lack of analyzing national water resources and water cycle as a whole has led to critical national and multinational water mismanagement. To publicly provide for current and projected water needs, it is critical to know, understand, and respond to regional/global water-cycle supply capacity, rate of water uses, projected long-term climate changes, and rate of loss of underground water storage capacity.   

U.S. water management politicians hope that there does not come a long drought. Of course politicians do not provide necessary water resource changes -- they just hope and delay responses.

A decade-long drought in the Colorado River Basin, which has lowered Lake Mead water supply to Hoover Dam by more than 120 feet from its high-water mark. Hoover Dam could stop generating electricity by 2013, if water levels in Lake Mead continue to drop 10 feet per year, and go below the level needed to supply generators. When Hoover Dam stops generating electricity, traditionally U.S. greenhouse gas emissions of hydrocarbon (coal, oil, natural gas) has replaced hydroelectric energy.  

According to United States Geological Survey, significant groundwater depletions have occurred in High Plains water basins (including Ogallala Aquifer) of the Midwest, many areas in the Southwest (AZ, CA, NM, NV, and TX), the Sparta Aquifer in the Southeast (AR, LA, and MS), and in the Chicago-Milwaukee area (where long-term pumping has lowered groundwater levels by as much as 900 feet in the sandstone aquifer underlying the Chicago area and eastern Wisconsin). Studies estimate that current groundwater overdrafts in Arizona total 2.5 million international acre foot (3,084 meter-squared) per year, approximately 50% in excess of maximum sustainable yield. A Kansas Geological Survey study projects that significant regions of that state will have exhausted their groundwater supplies by 2025. In some areas of Nebraska, groundwater levels have fallen almost 30 feet (9.1 meters) below normal.

Colorado River flow has a 50 percent chance of going dry by 2021, which has impacts upon 25 million people. Congress has yet to address issues of Colorado River flow that result in decreased Hoover Dam water output and reduced electrical generation. High Plains will dry up in as little as 25 years, leaving High Plains aquifers high-and-dry in eight states of South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas (major areas for food production and major political corn ethanol production region).

High Plains aquifers are among the world's largest aquifers, it covers an area of approximately 174,000 miles square (450,658 kilometer square) in portions of the eight states of South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. The saturated thickness of the Ogallala Aquifer has declined by over 50 percent in some areas (reported aquifer level declines of over 100 feet (30.5 meter) between 1950 and 1997). For political reasons, lack of public reporting of Ogallala Aquifer water resource problems is chronic since 2007.  

Close to a quarter of available water in the Texas Ogallala had been pumped out by 1980 and large portions of Ogallala Aquifer are overdrafted as true water mining operations. Almost all U.S. central and southern Ogallala Aquifer would be unable to run center-pivot irrigation by 2020, producing a permanent major global food source collapse. Further subsurface water storage gains are possible by Groundwater Recharge (GWR) of groundwater basins with rainfall runoff that normally flows to sea. Nevada-Utah and Rocky Mountain north to Alaska water should also be considered as a GWR water sources for the depleting High Plains aquifer.

Pacific Northwest groundwater development of the Columbia River Basalt aquifer of Washington and Oregon has caused water-level declines. Desert Southwest increased groundwater pumping to support population growth in south-central Arizona (including the Tucson and Phoenix areas) has resulted in water-level declines of between 300 and 500 feet (91-152 meter) in much of the area. Land subsidence was first noticed in the 1940s and subsequently as much as 12.5 feet (3.8 meter) of subsidence has been measured. In 1999, Las Vegas, Nevada, was the fastest growing municipal area in the United States. In places, groundwater levels have declined 300 feet (91 meter).  

Since development began on the vast Florida Everglades in the late 19th century, damage has been rampant with the draining of swamp land, the erection of dikes, dams and canals, and the intrusion of farms and development that have polluted with fertilizers, runoff, and groundwater/aquifer depletion. Plans to restore the Everglades will fail because turning back the environment clock on a large scale environment project is very expensive and close to impossible. The best that can be hoped for are projects to mitigate (or accommodate) environment change. Only time will tell how successful are attempts to curb patterns of human destruction

Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is where California's two largest rivers Sacramento River and San Joaquin River come together, carrying runoff from the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Central Valley, and on to San Francisco Bay. Since 1960s, untoward special interests control California water allocations through control of Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region and politics of California Department of Water Resources Board. California water is controlled by a covey of politically controlled convoluted water "authorities" and self appointed water/environment vigilantes.   

Pressure on water resources is important in Spain, Italy, and Turkey because of the very large acreage under irrigation. Like the U.S., large escalation in groundwater extractions has been driven by the falling costs of pumping technologies in areas with profitable irrigated crops. In contrast to large collective irrigation systems, for political self interest reasons -- private groundwater extractions are not subject to much control by water administrations.

China warned February 2011 that major agricultural regions were facing their worst drought in 60 years. In Italy, pervasive aquifer overdraft and water quality problems are located in the Po basin, Romagna and Puglia, and in the coastal plains of Campania, Calabria, Sicily, and Sardinia. These regions do not have problems of water scarcity, but rather of water quality. Water pricing will not solve scarcity or improve quality in the more degraded areas, because rising water prices would reduce consumption in large irrigation districts of inland Spain or southern Italy.   

There is little evidence that long-term droughts are not "new norms" within the Colorado River basin, Texas, California, China, Italy, and nuclear armed Pakistan/India Punjab alluvial plain water agreements, and other parts of the world. The only path to correct long-term water issues is proper management of surface and subsurface water convenience and groundwater storage.

Water Management -- Global warming climate change predicts that rainfall will become increasingly erratic, with rain coming in big storms separated by longer dry stretches. If the U.S. has a High Plains and California longer-term drought, U.S. and global food supply systems would be crippled.

To prevent the effects of long-term droughts, underground water long-term storage must be enhanced. When rain falls it must be surface short-term stored and transferred to long-term aquifer storage for later dry years.

To use water resources properly are: Conjunctive Water Management and Groundwater Recharge (GWR):  

Conjunctive Water Management -- Conjunctive water management is used to improve water supply reliability, to reduce groundwater overdraft and land subsidence, to protect water quality, and to improve environmental conditions.

Groundwater Recharge (GWR) -- Groundwater recharge is the movement of surface water from the land surface, through the topsoil and subsurface, and into de-watered aquifer space.  Recharge occurs naturally from precipitation falling on the land surface, from water stored in lakes, and from creeks and rivers carrying storm runoff. There are at least 15 methods available for groundwater replenishment (GWR) recharge of underground water saturation zones and prevent land subsidence. Water augmentation is supplying water from other sources for GWR and additional water resource uses. For political self interest reasons, GWR systems are under utilized within the U.S. and many other parts of the world.    

Recharge also occurs when water is placed into constructed recharge ponds (also called spreading basins), when water is injected into the subsurface by wells, and when water is released into creeks and rivers beyond what occurs from the natural hydrology (for example, by releases of imported water).   

Significant amounts of recharge can also occur either intentionally or incidentally from applied irrigation water and from water placed into unlined conveyance facilities.  

Groundwater banking is a subset of GWR water replenishment systems. Groundwater banking is the recharge (often of imported surface water or local floodwater) into de-watered aquifer space for later recovery and use or exchange with others.  

Use all resources available to prevent land subsidence and saltwater intrusions resulting from underground water drafting.  

Water Reporting - National, state, and regional water reporting has often been manipulated to promote corruption of political and special interests.  

Global warming will cause drought and forest fires turning regions into a large source of carbon dioxide that feeds back to create more warming. Secondly, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which increases the intensity of other extremes of the water cycle, such as heavy rains, punishing storms and flooding (as in 2011).

California 1970 population was 20.0 million and in 2010 was increased by 86.5% to 37.3 million. Little if any water planning to accommodate future demands has occurred since 1960s, after conservatives were removed from election cycles. Since 1960s-1970s, untoward politicians and special interests have dismantled science and central authority functions, diverted funding, while authority of special interest groups subdivided among themselves water responsibility and accountability to enhance untoward political control of critical water resources. Politicians use "divide and conquer" state and regional water authorities for untoward special interest control of water.

It is easier to corrupt a regional politically divided authority than corrupt a central scientific authority that has real authority and knows what it is doing. Divide and conquers is mostly imposed by legislation and political funding strategies. Since 2007 left Democrats took control of U.S. House, Senate, and government functions, public access to water information has been rewritten or withdrawn from internet access. Water and water information is ignored by media and is extensively controlled by political special interests.     

Unless changed, land subsidence and saltwater inundation from drafting regional water DOES destroy global central water storage and distribution systems and all other water cycle supply systems. Science can support informed decisions on global warming, water, environmental issues, and sustainable life issues. However, it is politicians who make decisions (or not). To date, politicians base their decisions upon self political interests.   

GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURE INCREASE

All species, including humans, have their own tipping point for survival and are threatened by seasonal changes, severe weather, and loss of habitat and global warming temperature increase.

For more than a decade the scope and goals of global warming mitigations have been sidetracked by political process of deceit, misrepresentation, and corruption. Nuclear energy is the only clean energy with capacity to curb global warming. Since 1970s and formation of U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Congress has limited nuclear to 20% national energy. The 1990s produced misdirection of official global warming mitigation goals. In 2009, NRC shut down Yucca Mountain Nuclear Geologic Repository, which is a vital part of U.S. Nuclear Fuel Cycle. Additional disruption of very critical U.S. Nuclear Fuel Cycle systems were produced and has established that the U.S. is to continue its hydrocarbon energy use past 2017 point of 'global carbon cycle carbon budget' abilities. By 2030-2040, the +2 degree Centigrade limit is exceeded. Uncontrollable temperature increase follows with a undeniable 2050-2055 end of all human races.

About one-third of global warming greenhouse warming results from electrical generation gases emitted by hydrocarbon (coal, oil, and natural gas) energy. NRC members have always been representatives for antinuclear and pro hydrocarbon corrupt political self interests movements. It is through Congressional left Democrat member activity that global clean nuclear energy was sidetracked to make room for "renewable energy" waste, fraud, and corruption promotion of wind, solar, ethanol, and carbon cap-and-trade. Congress first legislated U.S. "green energy" push with Energy Policy Act (EPAct 1992) and with later Acts.

By late 1990s, special interest politics took over structure of global warming technological reporting. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports of post 2001 improperly ignored natural methane as a important global warming gas and sliced-diced reports to add confusion and non viable options that obfuscated understanding global warming. IPCC documents now need revisions to present projected reality. In reality, there are only two viable global warming case studies: (1) greenhouse gas emissions "business as usual" and (2) case study that attempts to save human races.           

By 2003, increased political promotion of energy waste, fraud, corruption (while promoting wind, solar, green energy, ethanol, and carbon cap-and-trade) became the priority global warming response of left Democratic systems. Also around 2003 was another push for political social transformation of public housing. Because it was popular with his political base, President Obama spearheaded alternatives to energy and has made several efforts to shutdown global and U.S. Nuclear Fuel Cycle. Under current political conditions, it could take up to a decade to restart significant U.S. nuclear electrical generation.

U.S. and global anti nuclear sentiment and stalling of nuclear industry development is a direct result of U.S. political self interests of hydrocarbon energy sector. To save all humanity, there is little time left to inform public of vital needs to rapidly expand nuclear energy. It is combined natural methane and human carbon levels that produces global warming. Nuclear energy is the only energy source that might reduce human carbon emissions. Natural methane emissions can only be reduced by reducing global temperatures.        

Colleges and universities who for decades have promoted failed Communism and failed alternatives to energy have lost many years of student instructions. Education is now not helping resolving global warming issues. Those educational institutions are more interested in the politics of keeping flow of government grants and funds than they are concerned about saving doomed lives of their students.  

Once the carbon parts per million (ppm) concentration within the atmosphere tips over a magic number that no one so far exactly knows (but some say is carbon content between 350-450 ppm), then positive regenerative feedback assures there will be no global warming relief. If global warming greenhouse gas level exceed "the trip point," a thermo cascade failure occurs, even if all human carbon release activities would just stop, such as shutting down transportation, power plants, and industry.  

GLOBAL WARMING IS A CORRECTABLE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE SYSTEM CASCADE FAILURE MODE. IF NOT NOW QUICKLY CORRECTED, GLOBAL WARMING IS FATAL TO ALL HUMAN RACES 2050-2055.  

At historical trends of natural and human global warming greenhouse gas increase, human races termination from global warming is 2050-2099, but most likely termination is 2050-2055. Resulting from natural Arctic Region methane release and 250-years of human hydrocarbon emissions. Without rapid natural and human global warming greenhouse gas emission changes, and considering methane increases, expected is zero-years to forty-years remaining for human races existence.    

Starting from 2012, over the coming next five years, least-cost global warming option is lowering global warming by steadily transforming global human hydrocarbon energy systems to clean nuclear energy; lower human/natural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and then over time lower to zero human GHG emissions. Difficult to reduce are increasing Arctic Region natural methane levels that are ocean current temperature dependent and land surface-air temperature dependent. Arctic Region natural vast methane emissions form a reinforced positive feedback loop that is directly proportional to temperature (ie, huge stores of Arctic methane release form a positive regenerative cascade failure mode).

Core global warming task is to reduce global energy share of coal, natural gas, and petroleum, to be replaced nationally and globally with hydrocarbon free nuclear and hydroelectric energy. Molecule to molecule -- nuclear energy is the most intense carbon-free energy source available -- no other available energy source has the capacity to effect decrease in global warming temperature increase. How quickly nuclear energy is expanded to replace hydrocarbon energy determines if the human races can be saved over time.

Expansion of nuclear electrical generation is the only realistic global warming temperature reduction method available within the time frame necessary to make a difference. Additional uses of nuclear energy are to be further explored.

Carbon-free hydroelectric energy expansion is limited by available dam site locations. Dam sites and dam locations need expansion to accommodate both expansion of hydroelectricity to counter human greenhouse gas emissions and provide expanded surface water storage for water augmentation of groundwater replenishment (GWR) recharge for underground water saturation zones.  

U.S. national energy policies and global energy policies are in long-term political disarray and unable to meet needs of curbing global warming temperature increase. Other than U.S. military and intelligence agencies, there is no political leadership or empowered organization existing who are capable of planning what it takes to timely alter the rate of global warming. As soon as possible, existing U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) membership is to be replaced by four senior nuclear specialists and one presidential appointee. Revised scope of revised NRC membership is to include supervisions of U.S. 'Nuclear Fuel Cycle' and rapid expansion of U.S. nuclear energy. Global and U.S. plans for global warming reduction are to be produced by U.S. intelligence agencies and U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). Natural and human greenhouse gases are to peak by 2020 and decline thereafter.  

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Increasing 0-40 Year Human Race Lifespan

Under current accelerating rates of carbon and methane gases release, human life ends 2050-2055 CE. If Arctic Region methane clathrates carbon reserves become explosively unstable by temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides -- global warming temperature quickly rises and there are no more human races. Therefore, estimates for the continuation of human-life range from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years.  

If the Arctic Region water is warm enough to melt the fringes of the Arctic Ocean ice cap, the water is now warm enough to melt huge amounts of global warming methane clathrates, which releases the very powerful methane global warming gas. Further destabilization of the Arctic Region methane clathrate cap is very threatening to human life continued existence:

"Study finds warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica"

April 25, 2012
PHYS.ORG

Reporting this week in the journal Nature, an international team of scientists led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has established that warm ocean currents are the dominant cause of recent ice loss from Antarctica. New techniques have been used to differentiate, for the first time, between the two known causes of melting ice shelves - warm ocean currents attacking the underside, and warm air melting from above. This finding brings scientists a step closer to providing reliable projections of future sea-level rise.

Researchers used 4.5 million measurements made by a laser instrument mounted on NASA's ICESat satellite to map the changing thickness of almost all the floating ice shelves around Antarctica, revealing the pattern of ice-shelf melt across the continent. Of the 54 ice shelves mapped, 20 are being melted by warm ocean currents, most of which are in West Antarctica.

In every case, the inland glaciers that flow down to the coast and feed into these thinning ice shelves have accelerated, draining more ice into the sea and contributing to sea level rise and water temperature increase.

Lead author Dr Hamish Pritchard from British Antarctic Survey, which is part of the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), said: "In most places in Antarctica, we can't explain the ice-shelf thinning through melting of snow at the surface, so it has to be driven by warm ocean currents melting them from below. We've looked all around the Antarctic coast and we see a clear pattern: in all the cases where ice shelves are being melted by the ocean, the inland glaciers are speeding up. It's this glacier acceleration that's responsible for most of the increase in ice loss from the continent and this is contributing to sea-level rise.

"What's really interesting is just how sensitive these glaciers seem to be. Some ice shelves are thinning by a few metres a year and, in response, the glaciers drain billions of tons of ice into the sea. This supports the idea that ice shelves are important in slowing down the glaciers that feed them, controlling the loss of ice from the Antarctic ice sheet. It means that we can lose an awful lot of ice to the sea without ever having summers warm enough to make the snow on top of the glaciers melt - the oceans can do all the work from below.

"But this does raise the question of why this is happening now. We think that it's linked to changes in wind patterns. Studies have shown that Antarctic winds have changed because of changes in climate, and that this has affected the strength and direction of ocean currents. As a result warm water is funnelled beneath the floating ice. These studies and our new results therefore suggest that Antarctica's glaciers are responding rapidly to a changing climate."

A different picture is seen on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (the long stretch of land pointing towards South America). Here, the ice-shelf thinning found by this study can be explained by warm summer winds directly melting the snow on the ice-shelf surfaces. Both patterns, of widespread ocean-driven melting and this summer melting on the Antarctic Peninsula, can therefore be attributed to Antarctica's changing wind patterns. This research is part of international efforts to improve understanding of the interactions between ice and climate in order to improve the reliability of sea-level rise projections. Professor David Vaughan is the leader of ice2sea - a major EU-funded FP7 programme. Ice2sea will improve projections of the contribution of ice to future sea-level rise. He said, "This study shows very clearly why the Antarctic ice sheet is currently losing ice, which is a major advance. But the real significance is that it also shows the key to predicting how the ice sheet will change in the future is in understanding the oceans. Perhaps we should not only be looking to the skies above Antarctica, but also into the surrounding oceans."

The study was carried out by an international team from British Antarctic Survey, Utrecht University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Earth & Space Research in Corvallis, Oregon. NASA's ICESat – Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite – measurements were collected during the period 2003 – 2008 to detect changes in ice-shelf thickness through time.

Provided by British Antarctic Survey

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Top-level Space Assessment Missions - ICESat-2 and SMAP

Unfortunately ICESat failed as predicted March 2009. The scheduled launch of ICESat replacement, ICESat-2, is about 2015, but is now in a funding delay by anti-science President Obama. NASA could be forced to delay two approved, top-tier Earth science missions by more than one year due to the poorly defined nature of President Obama's 2010 Federal Budget. Delayed top-level space assessment missions are: Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) missions.  Although NASA requested $75 million and $132 million this year for ICESat-2 and SMAP, respectively, NASA could be forced to reduce planned spending on ICESat-2 by $22 million in order to stay within the $1.4 billion spending ceiling Congress appropriated for Earth science initiatives of 2011. SMAP funding would have to be reduced by $30 million.

Both missions topped the National Research Council’s list of large-scale climate-monitoring priorities in its 2007 Earth science decadal survey. ICESat-2 is designed to continue measurements of changes in polar ice-sheet mass to anticipate changes to global sea levels. SMAP, is designed to improve weather forecasts and flood and drought predictions.

Maintaining the launch schedule of ICESat-2 and SMAP data collection is essential to measure direction and progress of the effectiveness of global warming mitigations.  

Global Warming Response

"Obama vows to fight for climate action, make global warming a key 2012 issue" Fox Nation, 26 April 2012. The combination of greenhouse gases Arctic Region methane (from warming deposits of methane clathrates) and increasing hydrocarbon energy gases releases, define human-life range of existence as from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years. If President Obama is to influence human lifespan, he must quickly implement an effective energy plan that reduces natural and human greenhouse gas emissions.

To prevent the destruction of all human life from global warming temperature increase by 2050-2055 CE, human and natural greenhouse gases must peak by 2020 CE and decline thereafter. After 250-years of using global warming hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas), the only clean energy source with the energy capacity to displace carbon producing hydrocarbon energy is NUCLEAR ENERGY. ONLY by rapidly replacing hydrocarbon energy with clean nuclear energy can the lifespan of human life be extended. Human life expectancy depends upon how quickly and how much global nuclear energy capacity is expanded and how well nuclear fuel cycle is expanded.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Human Race Lifespan: zero-years to 40-years

James Watt developed (1763–75) an improved version of Newcomen's engine, with a separate condenser. Watt's engine used 75% less coal than Newcomen's, and was hence much cheaper to run. 1750 CE is the start of the Industrial Revolution. The greenhouses gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), since the industrial period began in earnest (around the mid-1800s) concentrations of both carbon dioxide and methane have been rapidly increasing.

In fact, methane concentrations have more than doubled over the last 150 years.

Methane is a powerful global warming gas. In the early transitional period of natural methane release the molecules of methane can produce a global warming effect that is more than a hundred times greater than that of carbon dioxide molecules. Methane (or natural gas) is a very powerful global warming gas that has been underreported for political reasons of corruption.  

Ambient pre industrial times is 1750 CE. Modern Global Warming Era concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Methane plays a significant part of recent global warming temperature increase -- methane's contribution to enhanced greenhouse effect is almost half of that due to hydrocarbon carbon dioxide increases over the last 150 years.

Thirty six years ago, in 1976, methane in the atmosphere was identified as a significant greenhouse gas. By 2001 CE U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported large parts of multiple chapters are dedicated to examining the sources, sinks, chemistry, history and potential global warming future of methane. After 2001 CE, and with strong covert political encroachment upon the technical reporting of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs), untoward groups and politicians for reasons of money, power, greed, and corruption have promoted "renewable energy" and carbon trading within the European-U.S. market sectors. There was further destruction of the validity of IPCC reporting; successful blocking of hydrocarbon emission reductions; Euro-U.S. politicians increased nuclear clean energy dismantling; construction of hydrocarbon-use infrastructure increased; multinational coal production is increased; attempted disruption of U.S. domestic oil supplies; while a greater "renewable energy" distraction masks the course of human life destruction 2050-2055 CE.  

At issue is the accelerating use-rate of hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) with its release of carbon dioxide and the accelerating temperature-rate release of methane within the Arctic Region. The rate of global warming temperature increase is a result of combination of methane and carbon dioxide gases increases. Mother Nature has issued her last warning: Unless natural and human global warming gases peak this decade and thereafter decline, successful mitigation of global warming is very much in doubt.             

The global warming potential (GWP) methane within decomposed methane clathrates is very greatly more than that of carbon dioxide. Some key facts about methane clathrates (aka, methane hydrates) make them particularly interesting to climatologists. First, they may make up a significant portion of total fossil carbon reserves, including coal, oil, and natural gas. Current best guesses suggest that maybe 500 to 2,000 gigatonnes of carbon may be stored as methane clathrates (5-20% of estimated total fossil carbon reserves). Some estimates are as high as 10,000 gigatonnes of methane clathrates fossil carbon reserves. Methane clathrates occur mainly on the Arctic continental shelves where surface to mid water temperature is sufficiently cold, there is increased water pressure, and there exists enough organic carbon material (ie, coal, oil, natural gas leaks) to keep the methane-producing bacteria happy and in suspension for the last 50 million plus years, until now. Now, Arctic Region and global temperatures are rapidly rising and methane is being released.

Most importantly, methane clathrates can be explosively unstable if the temperature increases or the pressure decreases — which can happen as a function of warming temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides. A rapid large release of methane from Arctic methane clathrates is called the "methane clathrate gun effect."

These Arctic Region methane clathrates reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to atmospheric and water current temperature changes as represented by sea-ice changes. As the temperatures warm their result methane greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere. In the early period of natural methane release the powerful gas has a global warming potential (GWP) of greater than 100. Increased temperatures release methane into the atmosphere which in turn serves as a positive regenerative feedback loop that continues the increase of global and regional temperatures. The below study proved that methane concentration originate from sea water, not on land or from human sources.

"Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82° north"

Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo 1452
Received 10 November 2011, Accepted 21 March 2012, Published online 22 April 2012

Uncertainty in the future atmospheric burden of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, represents an important challenge to the development of realistic climate projections. The Arctic is home to large reservoirs of methane, in the form of permafrost soils and methane hydrates, which are vulnerable to destabilization in a warming climate. Furthermore, methane is produced in the surface ocean and the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean are supersaturated with respect to methane. However, the fate of this oceanic methane is uncertain. Here, we use airborne observations of methane to assess methane efflux from the remote Arctic Ocean, up to latitudes of 82° north. We report layers of increased methane concentrations near the surface ocean, with little or no enhancement in carbon monoxide levels, indicative of a non-combustion source. We further show that high methane concentrations are restricted to areas over open leads and regions with fractional sea-ice cover. Based on the observed gradients in methane concentration, we estimate that sea–air fluxes amount to around 2 mg d−1 m−2, comparable to emissions seen on the Siberian shelf. We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea-ice cover.
Fin

Over the last 30 years, methane has gone from being a gas of no importance, to — in some researchers eyes, at least — possibly the most important greenhouse gas for understanding global warming.

"Danger from the deep: New climate threat as methane rises from cracks in Arctic ice"
Scientists shocked to find greenhouse gas 70 times more potent than CO2 bubbling from deep ocean

STEVE CONNOR
The Independent    
MONDAY 23 APRIL 2012

A new source of methane – a greenhouse gas many times more powerful than carbon dioxide – has been identified by scientists flying over areas in the Arctic where the sea ice has melted.

The researchers found significant amounts of methane being released from the ocean into the atmosphere through cracks in the melting sea ice. They said the quantities could be large enough to affect the global climate. Previous observations have pointed to large methane plumes being released from the seabed in the relatively shallow sea off the northern coast of Siberia but the latest findings were made far away from land in the deep, open ocean where the surface is usually capped by ice.

Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, said that methane levels rise so dramatically each time the research aircraft flew over cracks in the sea ice.

"When we flew over completely solid sea ice, we didn't see anything in terms of methane. But when we flew over areas where the sea ice had melted, or where there were cracks in the ice, we saw the methane levels increase." "We were surprised to see these enhanced methane levels at these high latitudes. Our observations really point to the ocean surface as the source, which was not what we had expected."

"Other scientists had seen high concentrations of methane in the sea surface but nobody had expected to see it being released into the atmosphere in this way."

Methane is about 70 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat. However, because methane is broken down more quickly in the atmosphere, scientists calculate that it is 20 times more powerful over a 100-year cycle. The latest methane measurements were made from the American HIPPO research programme where a research aircraft loaded with scientific instruments flies for long distances at varying altitudes, measuring and recording gas levels at different heights.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, covered several flights into the Arctic at different times of the year. They covered an area about 950 miles north of the coast of Alaska and about 350 miles south of the North Pole. The levels of methane coming off this region were about the same as the quantities measured by other scientists monitoring methane levels above the shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

"We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea ice cover," the researchers write. "The association with sea ice makes this methane source likely to be sensitive to changing Arctic ice cover and dynamics, providing an unrecognised feedback process in the global atmosphere-climate system," they say.

Climate scientists are concerned that rising temperatures in the Arctic could trigger climate-feedbacks, where melting ice results in the release of methane which in turn results in a further increase in temperatures.

"We should be concerned because there's so many things in the Arctic where the warming feeds further warming. There are many things in the Arctic that do respond to warming," said Euan Nisbet, a methane expert at Royal Holloway University of London.

Fin

Under current accelerating rates of carbon and methane gases release, human life ends 2050-2055 CE. If Arctic Region methane clathrates carbon reserves become explosively unstable by temperature increase, tectonic uplift, or undersea landslides -- global warming temperature quickly rises and there are no more human races. Therefore, estimates for the continuation of human-life range from a minimum of zero-years to a maximum of 40-years.  There are no political policies to alter the lifespan of human races.