Rev 20 Jan 2012
It is the accumulation of increasing atmospheric global warming greenhouse gases that result in global warming temperature increase. Major components of greenhouses are carbon dioxide (CH4) and methane (CH4).
Some scientists raised the alarm that large quantities of methane might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas methane clathrate (aka, hydrate) deposits trapped in marine and permafrost-associated sediments. Even if only a fraction of the liberated methane were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas and the persistence of its carbon dioxide oxidation product (CO2) heightens concerns that gas clathrate dissociation could represent a slow geologic tipping point for Earth's contemporary period of global warming. However, in human race terms, current global warming rate-of-increase is not slow; but it is about ten times faster than the beginning of the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma, which is the greatest recorded geologic mass extinction event. (Ma - megaannum is a unit of time equal to one million years)
The 1750 Christan Era (CE) Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) methane and carbon dioxide have accumulated within the atmosphere in massive amounts. By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as a result of human activity. Scientists suggest that left unchecked, too soon Modern Global Warming accumulated warming forces will exceed natural carbon dioxide and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.
Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook, 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. This hydrocarbon infrastructure is going to last another 50 years plus, at least. Those nations and others are “locking-in the global carbon budget.”
Following table is listing 2009 CE annual carbon dioxide emissions estimates (in thousands of CO2 metric tonnes): China 7,037,864, United States, European Union 3,623,402, India 1,629,959, Russia 1,528,568, Japan 1,092,878, Germany 755,140. Without a rapid and large expansion of nuclear energy replacing proposed and existing hydrocarbon facilities, there will be a 2017 CE “locking-in the global carbon budget.”
There is a large time lag to rebuild current hydrocarbon infrastructure into new clean energy infrastructure that results in a Earth temperature-decrease responses to emitted greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural Arctic methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.
Because of 250 years of growing human carbon dioxide emissions, Earth’s temperature increase exceeds life terminating +5 oC at 2050-2099 CE. Natural Arctic triggered “methane clathrate gun effect” will force a faster rate of temperature increase. That is, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC sooner with increased atmospheric methane content than with carbon dioxide emissions alone. Estimates to “turn off” the methane clathrate gun are to be reviewed. Human races-end depends upon the established regional and global temperature ranges.
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Greenhouse concentrations 1750 CE levels were historic carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Current concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb). The Methane concentration increase of ~164% is very disturbing; indicated is that the Arctic Ocean surface to mid-depth temperatures have increased causing weakening of the methane clathrate cap-over-sediments. Global warming is a matter of understanding projected events based upon past and current events. The Arctic methane is now entering the atmosphere; as Arctic and global temperatures increase, methane releases increases, thus increasing global temperatures to End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma levels.
Technically the current East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments are identified within the below Science abstract.
A non technical article of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane location is identified below.
It appears there are NO technical articles available that identify Arctic northern Canada and Alaskan sea shoreline methane venting into the atmosphere; which is an indication North American politicians control of funding for science education and research. To achieve covert political ends, untoward politicians control large funding and responses through selected small government funding of education and R&D institutions. Arctic northern Canada, U.S., Greenland, Norway, and Russian sea shoreline methane venting are within the continental boundaries and need to be part of national greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Antarctica is another region of methane emissions interest.
Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people 2050 CE. No national leader (excepting China government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011") has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase. U.S. political responses to global warming are chaotic and global warming is at the crisis point.
It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over time, by stopping human GHGs there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric GHGs concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit and reduce the size of the human population rate-of-growth. Implementation of some form of geoengineering is to be considered. Extremely limiting use of hydrocarbon energy is the most feasible and timely action that may reduce global warming temperature increase.
As a political ploy to remain dependent upon hydrocarbon economies, Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and are eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building 2017 CE "carbon budget infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies. Before 2020 CE, to save the human races involves significant reductions of human carbon dioxide emissions, which costs several trillions US dollars. China has introduced its nuclear construction program; but it may be too little too late.
China has built hundreds of new coal fired electrical generators to support their years of economic expansion. China's greenhouse gas emissions are likely to start falling only after 2030 CE. India needs help to reduce carbon their emissions. The U.S. politicians will not reduce global warming emissions prior to 2030 CE; well beyond 2017 CE tripping point of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in. Changing political dynamics poses the major obstacle to changing national hydrocarbon economies to that of hydrocarbon-free economies. Without actual global energy-use changes there is no hope for human races, they end 2050-2099 CE.
It is the accumulation of increasing atmospheric global warming greenhouse gases that result in global warming temperature increase. Major components of greenhouses are carbon dioxide (CH4) and methane (CH4).
Some scientists raised the alarm that large quantities of methane might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas methane clathrate (aka, hydrate) deposits trapped in marine and permafrost-associated sediments. Even if only a fraction of the liberated methane were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas and the persistence of its carbon dioxide oxidation product (CO2) heightens concerns that gas clathrate dissociation could represent a slow geologic tipping point for Earth's contemporary period of global warming. However, in human race terms, current global warming rate-of-increase is not slow; but it is about ten times faster than the beginning of the End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma, which is the greatest recorded geologic mass extinction event. (Ma - megaannum is a unit of time equal to one million years)
The 1750 Christan Era (CE) Industrial Age start of global warming gases (GHGs) methane and carbon dioxide have accumulated within the atmosphere in massive amounts. By 1866 CE, the combination of natural and human GHG accumulations influences global temperature increase produces a clear “thumbprint” of human impacts on climate change. Concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and their radiative forcing and other factors have continued to increase as a result of human activity. Scientists suggest that left unchecked, too soon Modern Global Warming accumulated warming forces will exceed natural carbon dioxide and methane heating effects produced by the 252.28 Ma Siberian Traps volcanic eruptions.
Paris based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new “World Energy Outlook, 2011” (WEO 2011) report states key issues to curbing global warming “infrastructure lock-in” of the “carbon budget.” Carbon budget refers to the contribution of various sources of carbon dioxide on the planet. Infrastructure coal plants and oil extraction methods in countries of China, India, Europe, Canada, the U.S., and other nations are rapidly being constructed right now. This hydrocarbon infrastructure is going to last another 50 years plus, at least. Those nations and others are “locking-in the global carbon budget.”
Following table is listing 2009 CE annual carbon dioxide emissions estimates (in thousands of CO2 metric tonnes): China 7,037,864, United States, European Union 3,623,402, India 1,629,959, Russia 1,528,568, Japan 1,092,878, Germany 755,140. Without a rapid and large expansion of nuclear energy replacing proposed and existing hydrocarbon facilities, there will be a 2017 CE “locking-in the global carbon budget.”
There is a large time lag to rebuild current hydrocarbon infrastructure into new clean energy infrastructure that results in a Earth temperature-decrease responses to emitted greenhouse gases. Once we edge near carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm it becomes imposable to turn off the global warming effects of the 1750 CE to date hydrocarbon energy used (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural Arctic methane/carbon dioxide release. The IEA found we are about five years away from building enough carbon-spewing infrastructures to lock-in a hydrocarbon infrastructure and make it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to avoid greatly exceeding 450-ppm carbon dioxide. The point of global warming no-return comes around 2017 CE.
Because of 250 years of growing human carbon dioxide emissions, Earth’s temperature increase exceeds life terminating +5 oC at 2050-2099 CE. Natural Arctic triggered “methane clathrate gun effect” will force a faster rate of temperature increase. That is, Earth’s temperature exceeds +5 oC sooner with increased atmospheric methane content than with carbon dioxide emissions alone. Estimates to “turn off” the methane clathrate gun are to be reviewed. Human races-end depends upon the established regional and global temperature ranges.
Since ambient 1750 CE pre industrial times, Modern Global Warming concentrations of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. Greenhouse gas increased above natural global warming concentration of carbon dioxide is increased ~39% and methane concentration is increased ~164%. Greenhouse concentrations 1750 CE levels were historic carbon dioxide peak levels of ~280 ppm and interglacial methane peak levels of ~700 ppb. Current concentrations levels are carbon dioxide (~390 ppm) and methane (~1,850 ppb). The Methane concentration increase of ~164% is very disturbing; indicated is that the Arctic Ocean surface to mid-depth temperatures have increased causing weakening of the methane clathrate cap-over-sediments. Global warming is a matter of understanding projected events based upon past and current events. The Arctic methane is now entering the atmosphere; as Arctic and global temperatures increase, methane releases increases, thus increasing global temperatures to End-Permian Mass Extinction 252.28 Ma levels.
Technically the current East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments are identified within the below Science abstract.
"Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf"
Science, 5 March 2010:
Vol. 327 no. 5970 pp. 1246-1250
DOI: 10.1126/science.1182221
By Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Anatoly Salyuk, Vladimir Yusupov, Denis Kosmach, and Örjan Gustafsson
ABSTRACT
Transfer to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in place. Here, we show that more than 5000 at-sea observations of dissolved methane demonstrates that greater than 80% of ESAS bottom waters and greater than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane regarding to the atmosphere. The current atmospheric venting flux, which is composed of a diffusive component and a gradual ebullition component, is on par with previous estimates of methane venting from the entire World Ocean. Leakage of methane through shallow ESAS waters needs to be considered in interactions between the bio-geosphere and a warming Arctic climate.
Received for publication 21 September 2009.
Accepted for publication 21 January 2010
Fin
A non technical article of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane location is identified below.
"Massive Methane Melt off Siberia"
—By Julia Whitty
Mother Jones, Thu Mar. 4, 2010
Arctic seabed stores of methane are now destabilizing and venting vast stores of frozen methane—a greenhouse gas more than 30 times potent than carbon dioxide. The paper, in the prestigious journal Science, reports the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf—long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane—is instead perforated and leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Melting of even a fraction of the clathrates stored in that shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming. Lead author Natalia Shakhova Shakhova of the International Arctic Research Center tells U of Alaska Fairbanks: "The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world’s oceans. Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area encompassing more than three-quarter million square miles of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean—three times larger than the nearby Siberian wetlands formerly considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane.
Shakhova’s research shows the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is already emitting 7 teragrams (1 teragram = 1.1 million tons) of methane yearly, about as much as the all the oceans of the world.
"Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," says Shakhova. "If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be significantly larger."
From 2003 through 2008 the researchers took annual research cruises on the shelf, sampling seawater at various depths, and sampling the air above the ocean. Their findings:
■ More than 80 percent of the deep water and greater than half of surface water had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater.
■ In some areas, the saturation levels reached at least 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher in the winter.
■ In the air directly above the ocean surface, methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hot spots. (This, combined with results from a winter expedition, showed the methane is not only being dissolved in the water but also bubbling out into the atmosphere as well.)
■ Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10 percent higher than the global baseline, yet those registered over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf rose another 5 to 10 percent higher than that.
[NOTE: Because Earth's climate base has yet to increase enough to balance with warming forces (and Arctic methane clathrate gas release is temperature and pressure associated), even if all human hydrocarbon emissions were now ceased, there is to be a considerable amount of Arctic methane yet to be released over centuries, which results in more global warming. --DGE]
In the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane doesn’t have enough time to oxidize, and more of it rises to the surface and escapes into the atmosphere. That fact, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, adds an extreme volatility [positive regenerative feedback] to this calculated variable in the climate models.
"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow clathrate [aka, hydrate] deposits will alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times," says Shakhova. [Resulting from continued human hydrocarbon greenhouse gas release, it appears there shall be too soon considerably more than one percent of the Arctic methane clathrate release. --DGE]
Fin
It appears there are NO technical articles available that identify Arctic northern Canada and Alaskan sea shoreline methane venting into the atmosphere; which is an indication North American politicians control of funding for science education and research. To achieve covert political ends, untoward politicians control large funding and responses through selected small government funding of education and R&D institutions. Arctic northern Canada, U.S., Greenland, Norway, and Russian sea shoreline methane venting are within the continental boundaries and need to be part of national greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Antarctica is another region of methane emissions interest.
Necessary planned successful responses to global warming temperature increase are essential, many, and varied and involve lives of more than 9 billion people 2050 CE. No national leader (excepting China government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011") has established a viable national or multinational response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. No nation maintains a viable organization to respond to countering global warming temperature increase. U.S. political responses to global warming are chaotic and global warming is at the crisis point.
It is necessary to stop human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over time, by stopping human GHGs there occurs temperature stabilization (i.e., atmospheric GHGs concentrations match systems of natural methane/carbon dioxide feedback). There are only three anthropological avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental, and human events: ● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) ● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices ● Limit and reduce the size of the human population rate-of-growth. Implementation of some form of geoengineering is to be considered. Extremely limiting use of hydrocarbon energy is the most feasible and timely action that may reduce global warming temperature increase.
As a political ploy to remain dependent upon hydrocarbon economies, Europe-U.S. politicians are locked into funding “alternative fuels renewable energy” and are eliminating nuclear energy. China-India governments are building 2017 CE "carbon budget infrastructure lock-in” with their greatly expand hydrocarbon based economies. Before 2020 CE, to save the human races involves significant reductions of human carbon dioxide emissions, which costs several trillions US dollars. China has introduced its nuclear construction program; but it may be too little too late.
China has built hundreds of new coal fired electrical generators to support their years of economic expansion. China's greenhouse gas emissions are likely to start falling only after 2030 CE. India needs help to reduce carbon their emissions. The U.S. politicians will not reduce global warming emissions prior to 2030 CE; well beyond 2017 CE tripping point of carbon budget infrastructure lock-in. Changing political dynamics poses the major obstacle to changing national hydrocarbon economies to that of hydrocarbon-free economies. Without actual global energy-use changes there is no hope for human races, they end 2050-2099 CE.
