Major global warming affects upon climate change are largely "irreversible" for more than thousands of years. Current global warming temperature increase above preindustrial is +0.8 °C with 6.7 billion people. Expected is crossing the +2 °C limit level in 2030-2040. The sum of national gross domestic products (GDPs) will increase each decade. Prior to 2050, the sums of national populations will increase to more than 9 billion people.
It is the sums of GDP and the sums of populations that are the driving force for increased energy consumption, which results in increased human (anthropomorphic) GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS emissions and increased GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURES.
Equations Relating Factors That Determine Level of HUMAN Impact on Global Warming
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for ‘‘stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . . .”
Given projections for populations’ growth and GDP growths, the global and national energy consumption can be calculated. A ‘‘stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations” can than be estimated.
The Kaya identity is an equation relating factors that determine the level of HUMAN impact on global warming, in the form of emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. NATURAL and other greenhouse gases are not considered within the identity.
The Kaya equation plays a core role in the development of future emissions scenarios. The scenarios set out a range of assumed conditions for future development of each of the four inputs. Population growth projections are available independently from demographic research; GDP per capita trends are available from economic statistics and econometrics; similarly for energy intensity and emission levels. The projected HUMAN carbon emissions drive carbon cycle and climate models to predict future HUMAN CO2 concentration, but does not combine HUMAN and NATURAL greenhouse gas levels.
Kaya identity states that total emission level can be expressed as the product of four inputs: population, GDP per capita, energy use per unit of GDP, carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. This equation is very simple and tricky, as it can be reduced to only two terms, but it is developed so that the carbon emission calculation becomes easy, as per the available data, or generally in which format the data is available.
Removing carbon intensity (C/E) from the Kaya identity produces a reduced equation that has been used by DOE’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Reference: DOE Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD)
In 2000, the global energy consumption rate (E) was 12.9 TW, which equals 385.5 QUADs (1 QUAD = 0.03346 TW-yr). Total global energy production and consumption in 1990 was 348.4 QUADs, 2001 403.9 QUADs, and 2010 is to be ~470.8 QUADs, and 2025 ~622.9 QUADs.
Given projections for populations’ growth and GDP growths, the global and national energy consumption is calculated. However, population and GDP estimate projections do vary.
Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product size. Increased energy used increases global warming CO2 emissions that are life threatening to the human race.
Overall, world energy consumption is predicated to increase faster than that of the U.S. and other industrialized countries, because between 2000 and 2025 energy demand in the developing countries nearly doubles.
To meet necessary reductions of human greenhouse gases, by 2020, developed nations need to replace coal, oil, and natural gas energy with nuclear energy. This will require both new nuclear energy and refitting of existing carbon generating energy units. Reference: Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”
As with developed nations, developing nations (including China and India) also need to install both new nuclear energy and refitting of existing carbon generating energy units. Nuclear energy is essential to global warming mitigation.
Sum of Nations Populations - Global Population Growth
Until 1800 the growth rates of human populations were glacial. Population growth between 5000 B.C. and 1800 averaged less than one-tenth of a percent per year.
Anyone who examines world population growth over the past two centuries certainly must be astounded, and quite possibly alarmed. The global population reached one billion in 1804. In 1927, some 123 years later, it passed two billion. Sixty years later, in 1987, the world population was five billion, and 12 years later, in October 1999, it is estimated to have passed six billion. Small wonder that many are concerned about what this bodes for our future. Due to the momentum represented by steeply pyramidal age distributions, population growth surely will continue for one to several generations. Most of that growth will occur in developing nations. An eventual world population of 8-12 billion is expected by the end of the century. But estimates change frequently. Reference: University of Michigan's Global Change Curriculum lecture "Population Growth over Human History" 01/04/2006
Sum of Real GDP per Worker - Economic Growth
Modern economic growth started in the West in the early nineteenth century (1800s). Connected are the Industrial Revolution, the beginnings of growth, intellectual and economic factors, and knowledge growth. There connections between science, technology and human capital and eighteenth century Enlightenment brought about modern growth.
Only after 1800 do we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of living.
The industrial core of the world economy saw its level of material productivity and standards of living explode in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Elsewhere the growth of productivity levels and standards of living and the spread of industrial technologies were slower. Reference: "The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect" Professor J. Bradford DeLong
GDP Invested In or Re-Directed Towards Global Warming Mitigation
The European Commission estimates that approximately 0.5% of annual global gross domestic product (GDP) will need to be invested in or re-directed towards mitigation measures up to 2030. The Stern Review suggests that this gross investment should be of the order of 1% of GDP by 2050. Global GDP is $58.26 Trillion US dollars at current prices (est. 2009, World Bank, World Development Indicators). Reference: The “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” is a 700-page report released for the British government on October 30, 2006
The adverse effect of humanity on the Earth’s global warming could well stimulate new global warming recovery industries, as did the end of the Second World War and the ‘cold war’ in 20th century.
No Safe Level Above 350 ppm CO2eq
Present carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) concentration for all GHGs is higher and growing exponentially faster than in the last 800,000 years, and potentially greater than the last 3 to 20 million years. Combined NATURAL and HUMAN greenhouse gases (and additional factors) make up CO2eq. With the rapid increased carbon dioxide heating equivalent level significantly above Earth’s preindustrial temperature, the human races will exceed their terminal heating point.
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is more than 105 parts per million (ppm) above its natural preindustrial level. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than 1990. Emissions experienced a 2.5-fold acceleration over the past 20 years. Projected carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions are even higher than before. In May 2011 the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was 392.01 ppm.
Any atmospheric carbon dioxide increase above 350 ppm dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) poses a risk to humanity. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years of 180 to 300 ppm (as determined from ice cores).
Increasingly important in the makeup of CO2eq is methane gas derived form methane-clathrate. Reference: National Science Foundation Press Release 10-036, March 4, 2010 - "Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated"
The greater the amount of carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) above 350 ppm, the greater the risk is to humanity. There is no “safe” carbon dioxide heating equivalent level above 350 ppm.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent) atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
The complexity of the global warming system does not allow the temperature response to GHG emissions to be estimated with absolute certainty. When you take into account GHGs, aerosols, and etc., the current atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons, are equivalent to about 450ppm CO2eq. However in addition to the warming effect of these GHGs, man made aerosols have a cooling effect and black carbon a further warming effect. [NOTE: Perhaps we should be driving our cars with “made aerosols” instead of gasoline.]
The best guess is that doubling of concentrations will cause a global temperature increase of +3 °C. This analysis also implies that, at a concentration of 550ppm, CO2eq the probability of keeping the temperature increase below 2°C is an unacceptable 5-17%. Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" 2008 Figure 3.2
It is projected that global warming temperature +2 °C limit is crossed 2030-2040. The human races terminating temperature +6.4 °C is crossed prior to 2099.
Some global warming temperature increase damage is identified by the EU. Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" 2008, see Figures 2.1 and 2.2
Space Ship Earth Limits
"We travel together, passengers on a little space ship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" –Adlai Stevenson, 1965
Spaceship Earth promotes the idea of the earth as a mechanical vehicle that requires maintenance and has operational limits. If the human races do not keep Spaceship Earth in good order it will cease to function. Expected is that Spaceship Earth will cease to function for the human races 2050-2099.
It is the sums of GDP and the sums of populations that are the driving force for increased energy consumption, which results in increased human (anthropomorphic) GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS emissions and increased GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURES.
Equations Relating Factors That Determine Level of HUMAN Impact on Global Warming
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for ‘‘stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . . .”
Given projections for populations’ growth and GDP growths, the global and national energy consumption can be calculated. A ‘‘stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations” can than be estimated.
The Kaya identity is an equation relating factors that determine the level of HUMAN impact on global warming, in the form of emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. NATURAL and other greenhouse gases are not considered within the identity.
The Kaya equation plays a core role in the development of future emissions scenarios. The scenarios set out a range of assumed conditions for future development of each of the four inputs. Population growth projections are available independently from demographic research; GDP per capita trends are available from economic statistics and econometrics; similarly for energy intensity and emission levels. The projected HUMAN carbon emissions drive carbon cycle and climate models to predict future HUMAN CO2 concentration, but does not combine HUMAN and NATURAL greenhouse gas levels.
Kaya identity states that total emission level can be expressed as the product of four inputs: population, GDP per capita, energy use per unit of GDP, carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. This equation is very simple and tricky, as it can be reduced to only two terms, but it is developed so that the carbon emission calculation becomes easy, as per the available data, or generally in which format the data is available.
Mc = N(GDP/N)(E/GDP)(C/E) The rate at which carbon is emitted (as CO2) by energy production (Mc) = expressing emissions as the product of population (N), per capita gross domestic product (GDP/N), primary energy intensity (E/GDP) and carbon intensity (C/E). The rate of primary energy consumption from all fuel sources (the ‘‘burn rate’’) is in watts (W). Energy intensity (Mc), has units of Wyr $-1 (reflecting quantity of Watts consumed and GDP). Carbon intensity, the weighted average of the carbon to-energy emission factors of all energy sources, has units kgCW−1 y−1
Removing carbon intensity (C/E) from the Kaya identity produces a reduced equation that has been used by DOE’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Reference: DOE Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD)
E = N(GDP/N)(E/GDP)
EXAMPLE – 2000 global energy consumption rate (E) in Terra Watts TW
N is Population (billion persons) is 6.1
GDP is Gross Domestic Product (T$/yr) is 28
GDP/N is per capita GDP (or standard of living) ($/person-yr) is 4,440
E/GDP is Energy Consumption Intensity (W/($/yr)) is 0.46
E is Energy Consumption Rate (TW) is 12.9 (slightly lower than Energy Information Administration statement)
C/E is Carbon Emission Intensity (kgC/(W x yr)
C is Carbon Emission Rate (GtC/yr) is 8.0
C is Equivalent CO2 Emission Rate (GtCO2/yr) is 29.3
Given projections for populations’ growth and GDP growths, the global and national energy consumption is calculated. However, population and GDP estimate projections do vary.
Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product size. Increased energy used increases global warming CO2 emissions that are life threatening to the human race.
Overall, world energy consumption is predicated to increase faster than that of the U.S. and other industrialized countries, because between 2000 and 2025 energy demand in the developing countries nearly doubles.
To meet necessary reductions of human greenhouse gases, by 2020, developed nations need to replace coal, oil, and natural gas energy with nuclear energy. This will require both new nuclear energy and refitting of existing carbon generating energy units. Reference: Blogger “Global Warming 2050-2099”
As with developed nations, developing nations (including China and India) also need to install both new nuclear energy and refitting of existing carbon generating energy units. Nuclear energy is essential to global warming mitigation.
Sum of Nations Populations - Global Population Growth
Until 1800 the growth rates of human populations were glacial. Population growth between 5000 B.C. and 1800 averaged less than one-tenth of a percent per year.
Anyone who examines world population growth over the past two centuries certainly must be astounded, and quite possibly alarmed. The global population reached one billion in 1804. In 1927, some 123 years later, it passed two billion. Sixty years later, in 1987, the world population was five billion, and 12 years later, in October 1999, it is estimated to have passed six billion. Small wonder that many are concerned about what this bodes for our future. Due to the momentum represented by steeply pyramidal age distributions, population growth surely will continue for one to several generations. Most of that growth will occur in developing nations. An eventual world population of 8-12 billion is expected by the end of the century. But estimates change frequently. Reference: University of Michigan's Global Change Curriculum lecture "Population Growth over Human History" 01/04/2006
Sum of Real GDP per Worker - Economic Growth
Modern economic growth started in the West in the early nineteenth century (1800s). Connected are the Industrial Revolution, the beginnings of growth, intellectual and economic factors, and knowledge growth. There connections between science, technology and human capital and eighteenth century Enlightenment brought about modern growth.
Only after 1800 do we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of living.
The industrial core of the world economy saw its level of material productivity and standards of living explode in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Elsewhere the growth of productivity levels and standards of living and the spread of industrial technologies were slower. Reference: "The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect" Professor J. Bradford DeLong
GDP Invested In or Re-Directed Towards Global Warming Mitigation
The European Commission estimates that approximately 0.5% of annual global gross domestic product (GDP) will need to be invested in or re-directed towards mitigation measures up to 2030. The Stern Review suggests that this gross investment should be of the order of 1% of GDP by 2050. Global GDP is $58.26 Trillion US dollars at current prices (est. 2009, World Bank, World Development Indicators). Reference: The “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” is a 700-page report released for the British government on October 30, 2006
The adverse effect of humanity on the Earth’s global warming could well stimulate new global warming recovery industries, as did the end of the Second World War and the ‘cold war’ in 20th century.
No Safe Level Above 350 ppm CO2eq
Present carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) concentration for all GHGs is higher and growing exponentially faster than in the last 800,000 years, and potentially greater than the last 3 to 20 million years. Combined NATURAL and HUMAN greenhouse gases (and additional factors) make up CO2eq. With the rapid increased carbon dioxide heating equivalent level significantly above Earth’s preindustrial temperature, the human races will exceed their terminal heating point.
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is more than 105 parts per million (ppm) above its natural preindustrial level. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than 1990. Emissions experienced a 2.5-fold acceleration over the past 20 years. Projected carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions are even higher than before. In May 2011 the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was 392.01 ppm.
Any atmospheric carbon dioxide increase above 350 ppm dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) poses a risk to humanity. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years of 180 to 300 ppm (as determined from ice cores).
Increasingly important in the makeup of CO2eq is methane gas derived form methane-clathrate. Reference: National Science Foundation Press Release 10-036, March 4, 2010 - "Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated"
The greater the amount of carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) above 350 ppm, the greater the risk is to humanity. There is no “safe” carbon dioxide heating equivalent level above 350 ppm.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent) atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
The complexity of the global warming system does not allow the temperature response to GHG emissions to be estimated with absolute certainty. When you take into account GHGs, aerosols, and etc., the current atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons, are equivalent to about 450ppm CO2eq. However in addition to the warming effect of these GHGs, man made aerosols have a cooling effect and black carbon a further warming effect. [NOTE: Perhaps we should be driving our cars with “made aerosols” instead of gasoline.]
The best guess is that doubling of concentrations will cause a global temperature increase of +3 °C. This analysis also implies that, at a concentration of 550ppm, CO2eq the probability of keeping the temperature increase below 2°C is an unacceptable 5-17%. Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" 2008 Figure 3.2
It is projected that global warming temperature +2 °C limit is crossed 2030-2040. The human races terminating temperature +6.4 °C is crossed prior to 2099.
Some global warming temperature increase damage is identified by the EU. Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" 2008, see Figures 2.1 and 2.2
Space Ship Earth Limits
"We travel together, passengers on a little space ship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil" –Adlai Stevenson, 1965
Spaceship Earth promotes the idea of the earth as a mechanical vehicle that requires maintenance and has operational limits. If the human races do not keep Spaceship Earth in good order it will cease to function. Expected is that Spaceship Earth will cease to function for the human races 2050-2099.
