Since about 1998, with the rise of the German Green Party political movement and with increased joint European-American “grassroots” socialism activity, the organizations of global warming (climate change) mitigation have been taken over by a few world dominating leaders’ and their social transition political forces.
Much of news media reporting ignores the global warming event in support of promoting the politics of European-American “grassroots” economic socialism, keeping alive popular anti-nuclear sentiment to sell news, and trying to make a living in a world that lacks political morality.
Three political objectives of global warming politics emerged from 1998 to current social transitions.
First - Around 2000, the small U.N. global warming administrative offices were commandeered by social-political forces who are intent upon obscuring global warming science. Under political influences, U.N. technical global warming studies have been designed to be incomplete, misleading, and omit valuable conclusion. Social-political forces promote U.N. global warming “climate change talks” that lead to nowhere.
Scientific global warming conclusions differ often from political self-serving or social political objectives. Resulting is suppression of scientific view point, political pressure applied to academic education departments, government education grant de-funding, and ending the careers of educational personnel. Political oppression of American education and media reporting of global warming is practically acute under U.S. socialist President Obama.
Both German Chancellor Angela Merkel (collation of Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union, and Green Party) and U.S. President Obama (American left-Democrat socialism and Euro-U.S. socialism movement leader) have killed their nations’ clean nuclear energy industries to reflect prevalent political-social desires.
To increase political justification of long-term “renewable energy” government subsides, Obama has also dismantled the completion of necessary construction of the Yucca Mountain geologic nuclear repository. Political subterfuge has caused U.S. government departments’ rewriting global warming websites to more closely match Obama’s political spin on “climate change.”
If any two world leaders are typical of the political self-serving interests griping the downfall of the human races — it is German Chancellor Merkel and U.S. President Obama.
Second - In the UN COP15 meeting (Copenhagen, 2009) there was controlling political activism and political deflection of U.N. global warming funds to promote nations’ immediate social needs. In the U.S., global warming became another tool for increasing government “jobs” within developing “renewable” state industries.
U.N. global warming administrative offices are managed by the activity of “grassroots” political operatives and politically organized meetings that assure continued permitting of nations to remain economically dependent upon increasing carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economies. Global warming political operatives have sealed the fate of the 2050-2099 human races.
Many world political leaders are apathetic to greenhouse gas emissions that result in global temperature increase and ultimate human race termination. However, those apathetic politicians may follow a defined path if a responsible world leader should soon emerge.
Third - Considering the counter productive nature of many of the major world leaders, there should be felt despair when considering the growing plight that will result from global warming temperature increase.
There are only a few politicians who might be able to provide survival hope for anyone who is 30 years of age or younger. Too soon, the human races disappear.
To Save Human Races From Global Warming Temperature Increase -
U.S. State Governors’ Litigation
Human energy consumption is the major contributor of human greenhouse gases (GHGs) of 61%. Within energy consumption, 40% is electricity and heat generation, another 20% is transportation, and the remainder is heat and industry use. Other GHG factors contribute 39% of the GHGs.
The only reason to shift the United States from an existing hydrocarbon (coal, oil, natural gas) economy to a clean nuclear energy economy is an essential need to reduce U.S. and global warming greenhouse gas emissions. Without such GHG reductions, the human races terminate 2050-2099.
State litigation against NRC -- We live in an age with considerable doubt as to the ability of the human races to survive much longer. It is up to U.S. State politicians to decide now what will be the course of action that will save humanity. State litigation against the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to reduce nuclear regulatory costs, decreased regulatory processing time, reduce nuclear regulatory start-up costs, and provide geologic nuclear repository facilities is the only viable approach to restoring clean U.S. nuclear energy, for now and in the future.
Global warming mitigation -- Global warming temperature increase is at 0.8 °C above preindustrial. Global warming temperature increase is increasing faster than before. By 2030-2040, global temperature will exceed +2 °C limit above preindustrial temperature. Exasperating the global warming problem, for political reasons, major carbon polluting countries oppose changing from carbon economies to using clean nuclear energy.
There are only three mitigation avenues available that might alter the course global warming, environmental changes, and human events:
● Modify land, groundwater, and sea use practices. Not a viable option.
● Limit the size of the human population rate of growth that is now about 6.7 billion people and limit gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Not a viable option.
● Stop (extremely limit) using hydrocarbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas). Viable option only if clean energy is rapidly and significantly expanded globally. “Renewable” energy is not a viable large scale energy option. Nuclear energy and hydro-elect are the only available clean energies that have the energy capacity to meet U.S. and global clean energy needs for reducing global warming.
Nuclear Regulation -- In the United States, state/federal environmental laws, state nuclear laws, NRC regulatory approvals, state regulatory approvals, and private party litigation lengthen the time from initiation of the nuclear project until its beginning operation, which increases costs and financing costs that makes capital more difficult to obtain.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates overnight capital cost for an advanced nuclear reactor at an excessive $5,335 per kilowatt, which excludes financing charges and project contingencies. Construction costs of nuclear units undergoing the permit process that include these other charges are estimated at an excessive cost around $8,000 to $10,000 per kilowatt.
This means that the fully-loaded capital costs for nuclear plants in the United States could potentially be 200 to 250 percent more expensive than the new Chinese nuclear plants. The U.S. is throwing $100s billions and decades of development down the drain to maintain state and federal Green anti nuclear policies. Resulting is 2050-2099 destruction of the human races.
State Governor’s litigation must reduce unnecessary nuclear cost and time delays to the reality level of deciding global life and death.
Geologic Nuclear Repository -- With President Obama’s October 1, 2010 closure of Yucca Mountain geologic nuclear repository, there is no American long-term nuclear waste material storage for current and future use of nuclear energy. Without long-term nuclear waste storage facilities, state nuclear electrical generating facilities become increasingly financially risky to build.
Lack of a working national nuclear repository and denial of timely cost effective construction of new nuclear facilities are State litigation issues and definite multinational security concerns.
State Nuclear Leadership - There is an advantage to being a leading nuclear energy State. Prior to 2020, to save the human races by reducing GHGs, it is necessary that the U.S. Congress phase out ALL non nuclear generating facilities (i.e., coal, oil, or natural gas). States that have nuclear facilities in place will meet 2020 requirements of energy and reduced GHG emission demands. Non-nuclear energy States are at an economic disadvantage.
Global Warming 2050-2099 --
For political response reasons, human race (Homo sapiens) growth has exceeded several global warming “trip thresholds.”
Resulting from Earth’s increased populations and population increased standards of living, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions shall increase global temperatures to the ultimate termination of the human races 2050-2099.
Over the past two decades, there has been too much counter productive global warming political activity. There is great doubt that a political response can be generated that will successfully implement necessary global warming mitigation for restraining global warming temperature increase to a “safe” global temperature.
Combined natural and human (anthropogenic) GHGs form a carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq), which produces global warming temperature increase. Some major gases that make up carbon dioxide heating equivalent are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Aerosols (stuff suspended in a gas) are global cooling agents. Atmospheric moisture (clouds) contributes to increase global warming.
Of particular global warming concern are natural Arctic Ocean and Tundra methane-clathrate releases of GHG methane gas that also accumulate within the atmosphere. As the Arctic and Oceans’ 0-300 meter depth warm significantly, a huge amount of stored powerful global warming methane is released, which accelerates the rate of global warming temperature increase, and “feeds back” to increase additional GHG releases (i.e., an open positive-regenerative feedback loop can lead to a global warming cascade temperature failure event).
A very ominous sign - Present carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) concentration for all GHGs is higher and growing exponentially faster than in the last 800,000 years, and potentially greater than the last 3 to 20 million years. With the rapid increased carbon dioxide heating equivalent level significantly above Earth’s preindustrial temperature, the human races will exceed their terminal point.
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is more than 105 parts per million (ppm) above its natural preindustrial level. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than 1990. Emissions experienced a 2.5-fold acceleration over the past 20 years. Projected carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions are even higher than before. In May 2011 the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was 392.01 ppm.
Any atmospheric carbon dioxide increase above 350 ppm dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) poses a risk to humanity. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years of 180 to 300 ppm (as determined from ice cores).
--NOTE: The greater the amount of carbon dioxide heating equivalent (CO2eq) above 350 ppm, the greater the risk is to humanity. There is no “safe” carbon dioxide heating equivalent level above 350 ppm.
Major global warming affects upon climate change are largely "irreversible" for more than thousands of years. Current global warming temperature increase above preindustrial is +0.8 °C with 6.7 billion people. Expected is crossing the +2 °C limit level in 2030-2040. By 2050, the sum of national gross domestic products (GDPs) will increase and the sum of national populations will increase to more than 9 billion people. It is the sums of GDP and populations that are the driving force for increased energy consumption. Only a significant converting to clean nuclear energy will result in the necessary decrease of atmospheric GHGs and stable Earth temperatures.
Because natural global GHG increase as a response to measured increased human GHG emissions, under the current political mindset there is little likelihood that humans will be able to timely reduce human greenhouse gas emissions that may result in a “safe” elevated global temperature.
Global Warming Mitigation Options --
There have been three proposals made to help reduce global warming temperature increase. Only two mitigation options (nuclear energy and hydro-electric energy) appear to be viable enough to be implemented now.
There has been no “official” “business as usual” global warming temperature projection to 2050. A projected business as usual global temperature increase considers the sums of increased populations and population increased standard of living (i.e., GDP per capita), which result in increased emission of human GHGs. Also considered are increased natural GHG emissions. The “business as usual” global warming trend line is the projected standard from which proposed global warming mitigation effectiveness is measured.
Countries contribute different amounts of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. In general, developed countries and major emerging carbon economy nations lead in total carbon dioxide emissions. Top 10 countries in 2008 total 66.52% of global warming carbon dioxide emissions: China (excluding Taiwan, Macau and Hong Kong), United States, (European Union 14.04%,) India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Canada, Iran, United Kingdom, and South Korea.
If global warming is limited, many impacts of global warming climate change can be addressed through effective adaptation. With increasing levels of global warming, however, there are fewer options for successful adaptation. There is very limited knowledge on the limits and costs of adaptation. Preferred are significant reductions in emissions to meet long-term mitigation goals substantially to decrease the level of required adaptation.
The costs of global warming impacts are directly related to their magnitude, which increases with global temperature and may be between 5 and 20% of GDP or even higher in the long-term. GDP does not take into consideration the cost of human life.
Science provides information and global warming data. It is the global leaders who have to adequately provide global warming mitigation necessary to prevent destruction of the human race. The rapidly changing global warming conditions now require U.S. State Governors to act as global leaders defending the human races.
If left unchanged, resulting from many decades of accumulated natural and human global warming greenhouse gases, human races terminate 2050-2099.
Global Warming Temperature Increase +6.4C Prior To 2099 --
Earth’s temperature at 2090-2099 is a very important topic for Earth’s population.
In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that global methane clathrate contains more organic carbon than the combined world's coal, oil, and non-methane clathrate natural gas. By 2099, with a global temperature of +6.4C temperature increase above preindustrial times, the magnitude of the warmed oceans’ global release of methane clathrate storehouses of methane (CH4) is truly staggering: methane fireballs tear across the sky, causing further global warming.
Methane clathrate release from the Arctic’s not-so-permafrost is the most dangerous amplifying feedback in the entire carbon cycle. Research has found methane bubbling out of the ocean and melting permafrost (frozen soil and waters) and in Arctic/Tundra wetlands and lakes. Permafrost lining the deep and shallow cold Arctic seas is holding in untold amounts of trapped methane within methane clathrate. Under pressure and low temperature, methane (which normally boils at –161 degrees Celsius) forms a thermodynamically stable association with water. These solids are called methane clathrate (or hydrates). As the seas and lands warm, massive amounts of global warming greenhouse gas methane and carbon is released.
If even a fraction of the methane stored in the Eastern Siberia Arctic Ocean shelf is released it could trigger abrupt climate warming. The Siberian Arctic Shelf is a 20-30 year frontier in methane studies. There are additional area of methane interest near the Arctic Ocean coast. The Arctic Ocean shelf is shallow, 50 meters (164 feet) or less in depth, which means the Arctic Shelf has been collecting methane alternately submerged or terrestrial, depending on sea levels and temperatures throughout Earth’s history. It is described as a methane ticking time bomb. Reference: National Science Foundation Press Release 10-036, March 4, 2010 - "Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated"
There are few published government or private studies of the Arctic Ocean shelf, an indication of the political sensitivity of methane hydrate research.
It is the combined accumulation of natural and human (anthropomorphic) global warming greenhouse gases and atmospheric moisture less the cooling aerosols, which determine Earth’s temperature. Because of the inertia of the global warming system, Earth’s equilibrium temperature associated with the accumulation of higher GHG concentrations vs. temperate-change experiences a hysteresis time-delay.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent) atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
--NOTE: The complexity of the climate system does not allow the temperature response to GHG emissions to be estimated with absolute certainty. When you take into account GHGs, aerosols, and etc., the current atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons, are equivalent to about 450ppm CO2eq. However in addition to the warming effect of these GHGs, man made aerosols have a cooling effect and black carbon a further warming effect. Although these vary considerably by region, their net global effect, together with the GHGs, gives a warming effect equivalent to a best-estimate of about 375ppm CO2eq (IPCC AR4 WGI, Tab.2.12). Note that future aerosol emissions, and their regional net cooling effects on the climate, are assumed to decrease with increased effectiveness of air pollution control policies around the world. Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" 2008, see Figure 3.2
--NOTE: No climate model currently incorporates the amplifying feedback from methane clathrates’ methane released by defrosting tundra and Arctic Ocean, which is a very dangerous and irresponsible political position for the U.S. government and other governments to take. Not considering methane clathrate release of methane and continued increases of human carbon energy does lead to the termination of human races 2050-2099.
Prior to 2099, the oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, release poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas, and a destroy the ozone layer. Deserts extend almost to the Arctic. "Hypercanes" (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods, which striped the land of soil. Groundwater reserves are depleted. Humanity is reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges.
Within 2011, without a timely “change” of global warming political leadership, the direction of global warming temperature is to increase. Earth’s temperature before 2099 exceeds +6.4C, which exceeds Earth’s human race terminating average temperature.
Natural and Human GHG Emission Reductions --
In order to ensure a high degree of probability of staying below 2 °C, urgent action is required to reduce global GHG emissions so that atmospheric concentrations will peak in the near future and return to a lower stabilisation level (see IPCC AR4 WGI, Frequently Asked Question 10.3 "If Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are Reduced, How Quickly do Their Concentrations in the Atmosphere Decrease). Reference: EU's "The 2°C target" see Fig 3.3
Real Need - With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of avoiding greater dangerous climate change by keeping the global warming temperature rise relative to preindustrial temperatures below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) will need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
False Pretence - Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
GHG reductions amounted to a slim average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. There is no current UNFCCC reduction of GHG goal statement. Nor is there any identified national GHG reduction accountability. The only known GHG statement that can be made is that if politicians keep doing what they have been doing, they are going to get the same results -- termination of the human races 2050-2099.
The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol overt intent was to commit nations to GHG reduction. However, neither Kyoto Protocol mechanisms or Convention did anything to reduce GHGs.
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001, and are called the “Marrakesh Accords.”
The Kyoto mechanisms are identified as a socially acceptable approaches to redistribution of economic wealth though the guise of "climate change." Kyoto mechanisms’ real political purpose is to retain in place the national carbon economies:
● Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
● Clean development mechanism (CDM)
● Joint implementation (JI)
Global warming politics has never resulted in a reduction of human GHGs. The only GHG reduction is caused by the current economic recession.
States Proposed New Nuclear Reactors --
Current global warming temperature increase is a grave situation. Because of long-term sitting political positions, the only government entity that has authority to change the course of global warming are U.S. State Governors, through the process of litigation against federal and state entities.
Despite a near halt in new U.S. construction for more than 30 years, U.S. reliance on nuclear power has continued to slowly grow. Following a 30-year period in which few new reactors were built, it is expected that only 4-6 new units may come on line by 2020, the first of those resulting from 16 license applications to build 24 new nuclear reactors made since mid-2007. To save the world, the U.S. completing 4-6 new nuclear power units is grossly inadequate and is evidence of political negligence.
Adding in application time with licensing certification period for the NRC review of a new reactor certification is 7 to 20+ years and -- of the more than one dozen different reactors that have been up to NRC application -- only 4 reactors are now certified and three of those are variations of the same reactor. So after 7 to 20+ years, the odds of successfully getting through NRC member certification are about 20% or less.
Obviously, since the NRC was installed by Congress in 1974 to aid prevalent self-serving political reasons, the "grassroots” environmentalists and anti nuclear political support groups have undermined U.S. and multinational nuclear energy for more than three decades.
Involved Nuclear Development States --
The following states have proposed construction of 28 new nuclear reactors. NRC members’ final approval of the sites is held up by U.S. state and federal nuclear politics – Reference: NRC Location of Projected 28 New Nuclear facilities
● Bellefonte Nuclear Station, Units 3 and 4 - Alabama (AL)
● Levy County, Units 1 and 2 - Florida (FL)
● Turkey Point, Units 6 and 7 - Florida (FL)
● Vogtle, Units 3 and 4 - Georgia (GA)
● River Bend Station, Unit 3 - Louisiana (LA)
● Calvert Cliffs, Unit 3 - Maryland (MD)
● Fermi, Unit 3 - Michigan (MI)
● Callaway Plant, Unit 2 - Missouri (MO)
● Grand Gulf, Unit 3 - Mississippi (MS)
● Shearon Harris, Units 2 and 3 - North Carolina (NC)
● Nine Mile Point, Unit 3 - New York (NY)
● Bell Bend Nuclear Power Plant - Pennsylvania (PA)
● Virgil C. Summer, Units 2 and 3 - South Carolina (SC)
● William States Lee III, Units 1 and 2 - South Carolina (SC)
● Comanche Peak, Units 3 and 4 - Texas (TX)
● South Texas Project, Units 3 and 4 - Texas (TX)
● Victoria County Station, Units 1 and 2 - Texas (TX)
● North Anna, Unit 3 - Virginia (VA)
China - Mainland China has 14 nuclear power reactors in operation, more than 25 under construction, and more about to start construction soon. While coal is the main energy source, most reserves are in the north or northwest and present an enormous logistical problem – nearly half the country's rail capacity is used in transporting coal. Because of the heavy reliance on old coal-fired plant, electricity generation accounts for much of the country's air pollution, which is a strong reason to increase nuclear share share. China recently overtook the USA as the world's largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions.
China’s expansion of nuclear power and phase out of coal utilities is the correct path for global warming mitigation. The U.S. expected 4-6 new units that may come on line by 2020 identifies U.S. political negligence. How much each nation needs to reduce GHG is unknown because the Kyoto Protocol and Convention do not identify necessary GHG reductions to keep global warming temperature increase within a "safe" level.
Without State Governors’ ligation against the current Federal administration’s repression of the U.S. nuclear industry, and State regulators, there is no hope for global warming human race survival past 2050-2099. U.S. State Governors’ actions are the last survival hope for anyone who is 30 years of age or younger.
THE END
