By David G. Eselius
The most effective solution to global warming temperature increase is acknowledging that global warming temperature increase is a problem. Without identifying a world leader who will lead in resolving political opposition to implementing effective global warming mitigation, the human races and their economies will terminate 2050-2099.
GLOBAL WARMING MITIGATION PLANING
For more than a decade, world leaders and Euro-U.S. socialists/anti nuclear groups have been gaming official UN and national agencies to establish transfer-of-wealth from rich-nations to poor-nations and to political special interests, under the guise of being necessary for “climate change” response. Money and time has been wasted without concern for global warming results.
Resulting is that there is no global warming mitigation planning. No nation has attempted to establish a national response plan to counter global warming. Both rich nations and poor nations are going to pay dearly for the delaying of necessary mitigation responses to correct the global warming temperature increase.
Although increasing population growth and resource consumption has been well known since at least the 1960s, bad politicians and bad politician support groups have undermined possibilities of saving the human races from global warming destruction.
NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) must peak 2015-2020: global carbon emissions (CO2) will need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century.
To aid in planning global warming mitigation, a summary of some global warming forces is presented following.
RADIATIVE FORCING (RF)
Global warming (and global cooling) radiative forcing (RF) is separated into direct and indirect effects. The direct effect is the mechanism by which aerosols scatter and absorb short-wave and long-wave radiation, thereby altering the radiative balance of the Earth-atmosphere system. Sulphates, fossil fuel organic carbon, fossil fuel black carbon, biomass burning and mineral dust aerosols were all identified as having a significant anthropogenic component and exerting a significant direct RF.
The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. RF expresses the change in energy in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The RF of a gas is defined as the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation caused by the increased concentration of that gas. Radiative forcing is expressed in Watts per square meter (W/m2) or the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top part of the atmosphere.
RF is an instantaneous measure: it expresses the climate forcing of a greenhouse gas (GHG) at a particular point in time. Yet it also has a temporal component: it is a backward-looking metric because it measures the RF of a GHG that has accumulated in the atmosphere over a certain period of time (e.g. aviation emissions over approximately 60 years). Reference: "Radiative Forcing"
RF provides a limited measure of global warming as it does not attempt to represent the overall climate response. (IPCC, 2007, WGI, p 133). Reference: p 133, FAQ 2.1 - Figure 1 and FAQ 2.1 - Figure 2. LINK: AR4 WGI "Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing"
Positive and Negative RF
A positive radiative forcing (W/m2) number leads to global warming and a negative radiative forcing (W/m2) number leads to a cooling affect.
Albedo, or reflection coefficient, is the diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. Total aerosol direct effect and cloud albedo effect is a negative RF number. Surface albedo effect is negative, which includes land use (negative number) while black carbon on snow is a positive number. Total net human activates RF is a global warming positive number (0.6-1.6 W/m2).
NOTE: Aerosol particles reflect solar radiation leading to a net cooling, therefore aerosols have negative-RF values. If the problems of global warming are going to be resolved, any negative RF is a valuable global warming commodity that is worth more understanding.
The ability of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to create a global dimming (negative) effect has made them a possible candidate for use in geoengineering projects to limit the effect and impact of climate change due to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Delivery of precursor sulfide gases such as hydrogen sulfide (H2S) or sulfur dioxide (SO2) by artillery, aircraft, and balloons has been proposed.
GREENHOUSE GASES
Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. Prior to the industrial era, greenhouse gas concentrations were roughly constant. Due to human activity, global warming atmospheric greenhouse gas ratios are no longer constant and are in a state of change.
Post industrial era, human carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) has added huge amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product size. Increased energy used increases global warming CO2 emissions that are life threatening to the human race.
Human activities result in emissions of four principal greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons.
These GHG gases accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with time. Increases in all of these gases have occurred since the start of the Industrial Era. All GHG increases are attributable to human activities. Reference: (IPCC, 2007, WGI, p 135, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1) as amended LINK: AR4 WGI "Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing"
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Carbon dioxide is the most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It has contributed approximately 55 per cent of the anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect up until today. Carbon dioxide emissions have been growing at 3.5 percent per year since 2000, four times the rate of growth in the 1990s.
CO2 is part of a complicated carbon cycle involving the atmosphere, plants and animals, land and the oceans. The intensive use of fossil fuels since industrialization is the main driver of anthropogenic global warming. Human life is carbon and water based.
In other words, using carbon fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas for energy production and industry is the primary cause of global warming.
Coal leads to the greatest emissions of CO2 per unit of energy produced, while natural gas leads to the lowest emissions (40 per cent less than coal).
Oil lies roughly halfway between coal and natural gas in relation to the end use of electricity or natural gas for heating, as oil and natural gas have a much higher efficiency.
From 1750 up until today, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by up to 33 per cent, and is at its highest level for the last 420,000 years. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere during the previous 420,000 years has been in the range 180-280ppm. You have to go back 20 million years to find CO2 concentrations of the magnitude the Earth is currently moving towards. Existing CO2 rate of change increase has no identified historical precedence.
Through out its life span, human existence has adapted — but human existence has never before experienced what is coming so quickly with such a large population and industrialization. For a human race prehistory perspective of human development and adaption, consider viewing/reading the website "Journey of Mankind - The Peopling of the World," by the Bradshaw Foundation and Stephen Oppenheimer. Reference: "Journey of Mankind - The Peopling of the World"
Except for the 74,000 BCE super-eruption of Mt. Toba (now identified as Indonesian Lake Toba) producing a massive amount of (negative-RF) aerosols, causing a 6 year nuclear winter, and a 1,000 year ice-age, with a dramatic global population crash to less than 10,000 adults—never before have human races seen such a huge change in atmospheric radiative forcing (RF) conditions within such a short time period.
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are small compared to the quantities of carbon involved in the natural carbon cycle. Yet the natural cycle is in balance, and this balance is being disturbed by anthropogenic emissions.
Some of the CO2 emissions are absorbed by forests and other ecosystems. Currently, around 30 per cent of anthropogenic emissions are absorbed, but it is very uncertain as to whether this level will remain this high.
Some CO2 is absorbed by the oceans, but approx. half remains in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in atmospheric concentration. Ocean CO2 also produces ocean acidification.
However, the ocean absorption proceeds slowly, and it will take a long time before the atmosphere reaches a new equilibrium with the CO2 dissolved in the oceans. This is because the exchange between the ocean surface and deep water is very slow, and there are limits as to how much CO2 can be dissolved in both surface water and deep water.
Approx. 50 per cent of the total anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide are not absorbed, but remain in the atmosphere. This means that it is practically impossible to return to the situation before we began CO2 emissions into the atmosphere (i.e., return to the preindustrial CO2 levels), even if we completely stop emitting CO2 into the atmosphere. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Carbon dioxide (CO2)"
• Methane (CH4) - Methane is currently the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Methane has contributed approximately 20 per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Methane occurs naturally in the atmosphere in very small concentrations. Most of it presumably derives from the anaerobic breakdown of organic material in marshes and methane clathrate. Very large quantities of methane are bound in the frozen tundra in Canada and Siberia. There are also large quantities of methane bound as methane clathrate (hydrates) which is a type of ice containing methane found in the Arctic ocean floor, coast line, and tundra and deeper in more temperate oceans. If the tundra begins to thaw, or the ocean floor/coast line temperature rises due to global warming, this stored methane may be released as a feedback mechanism, making a further contribution to global warming. Methane has a more powerful impact on the atmospheric greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. Yet methane breaks down relatively quickly (after approximately 12 years), with the result that a reduction in methane emissions would have a rapid effect. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Methane (CH4)"
• Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Nitrous oxide is only contributes approximately four per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Like methane, agriculture is the primary source of anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions. These arise when soil-borne bacteria convert nitrogen from fertilizer and manure into nitrous oxide. Combustion processes and the use of catalytic converters also contribute to nitrous oxide emissions. The total increase in the atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide due to anthropogenic emissions is 17 per cent. However, it is still important to reduce emissions, as nitrous oxide has a long lifetime in the atmosphere (120 years). As a result, the global warming potential of nitrous oxide is around 310 times greater than that of CO2. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Nitrous oxide (N2O)"
• Halocarbon - Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities. Natural processes are also a small source. The concentration of halocarbons in the atmosphere is very small. However, halocarbon gas contribute to approximately 13 per cent of the anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. The group includes CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. CFCs (previously used to produce insulating foam for refrigerators, etc.) are best known for their part in breaking down the ozone layer. International agreements were established under the UN Montreal Protocol (1987) to phase out the use of CFC gases in order to protect the ozone layer. Concentrations are therefore rising more slowly, or even falling, because emissions are being reduced. However, concentrations of the gases used to replace CFCs (HCFCs and HFCs) and other industrial gases (such as PFCs and SF6) are increasing, and these are also powerful greenhouse gases. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Halocarbons"
• Ozone (O3) - Ozone arises in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere (around 10 per cent of all atmospheric ozone is found here). The remainder is in the stratosphere – above the troposphere – at altitudes of between 10 and 50 km.
Ozone forms in the lower atmosphere due to air pollution (smog). Above the troposphere, ozone is formed naturally and protects life on Earth against ultraviolet radiation from the sun.
The anthropogenic increase in ozone levels in the troposphere has contributed to approximately eight per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Anthropogenic ozone derives from sources such as vehicle exhaust gases.
However, ozone levels vary over time and in terms of altitude and geographic location, making it far more difficult to determine how much ozone levels in the troposphere have increased due to anthropogenic impacts and their effects.
The UN climate panel estimates that the increase in ozone levels in the troposphere has contributed to an increase in the greenhouse effect of roughly twice the magnitude of the negative-RF contribution due to the breakdown of the ozone layer in the stratosphere. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Ozone O3"
• Water vapor - Water vapor is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is considered within Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations.
• Aerosols - Aerosols are small particles present in the atmosphere with widely varying size, concentration and chemical composition. Some aerosols are emitted directly into the atmosphere while others are formed from emitted compounds. Aerosols contain both naturally occurring compounds and those emitted as a result of human activities. Fossil fuel and biomass burning have increased aerosols containing sulphur compounds, organic compounds and black carbon (soot). Human activities such as surface mining and industrial processes have increased dust in the atmosphere. Natural aerosols include mineral dust released from the surface, sea salt aerosols, biogenic emissions from the land and oceans and sulphates and dust aerosols produced by volcanic eruptions.
COSTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
The costs of limiting climate change are still at a manageable level, but costs will increase the longer action is delayed. It still may be possible to limit anthropogenic climate change to a warming constrained to around +2 °C above the preindustrial level, but this will require fast and resolute political action.
Total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.
There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm CO2eq, much less above 400 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent). Required is spending as much money as necessary to reduce NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) necessary to stabilize Earth’s temperature increase to a “safe” level.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
When you take into account GHGs, and etc., the current atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases (i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons) are equivalent to about 450ppm CO2eq. However in addition to the warming effect of these GHGs, man made aerosols have a cooling effect and black carbon a further warming effect.
NOTE: There is no authoritative statement as to a "safe" temperature increase level. Nor is there a statement as to a "safe" CO2eq level. To properly identify temperature stabilization levels, both CO2eq level and Radiative Forcing (RF) figures must be identified. Additionally, for a complete “safe” temperature statement it is necessary to identify the time it takes Earth’s temperature to stabilize at a given CO2eq level with a given RF.
As to global warming mitigation costs - Just spend as much money as possible to effectively reduce natural and human GHGs. Start with quickly phasing out coal based electrical energy and quickly build new nuclear energy electrical stations.
Costs of responses to global warming have been covertly and overtly manipulated by world leaders and Euro-U.S. socialists/anti nuclear groups. There are no true costs of global warming mitigation because there has been no effective global warming mitigation planning. It is in the interests of self-serving groups to transfer schemes to global warming rip-offs. To identify costs of global warming—start with a valid verified plan that will identify natural and human carbon emissions (CO2) to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels).
World leaders and politicians are deaf, dumb, and blind when it comes to acknowledging the hazards and costs of global warming. It is up to the business community and news media to forcefully inform politicians that it is the politicians’ responsibility to save human races.
UNTOWARD TAMPERING WITH GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE
Too much of the global warming information available from the internet is false and misleading. U.N., U.S., U.K., and German government agency’s global warming information is misleading and deceptive. It appears hackers and political leaders’ defenses against global warming temperature increase are lies and deceit.
The most effective solution to global warming temperature increase is acknowledging that global warming temperature increase is a problem. Without identifying a world leader who will lead in resolving political opposition to implementing effective global warming mitigation, the human races and their economies will terminate 2050-2099.
GLOBAL WARMING MITIGATION PLANING
For more than a decade, world leaders and Euro-U.S. socialists/anti nuclear groups have been gaming official UN and national agencies to establish transfer-of-wealth from rich-nations to poor-nations and to political special interests, under the guise of being necessary for “climate change” response. Money and time has been wasted without concern for global warming results.
Resulting is that there is no global warming mitigation planning. No nation has attempted to establish a national response plan to counter global warming. Both rich nations and poor nations are going to pay dearly for the delaying of necessary mitigation responses to correct the global warming temperature increase.
Although increasing population growth and resource consumption has been well known since at least the 1960s, bad politicians and bad politician support groups have undermined possibilities of saving the human races from global warming destruction.
NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) must peak 2015-2020: global carbon emissions (CO2) will need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural greenhouse gas emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century.
To aid in planning global warming mitigation, a summary of some global warming forces is presented following.
RADIATIVE FORCING (RF)
Global warming (and global cooling) radiative forcing (RF) is separated into direct and indirect effects. The direct effect is the mechanism by which aerosols scatter and absorb short-wave and long-wave radiation, thereby altering the radiative balance of the Earth-atmosphere system. Sulphates, fossil fuel organic carbon, fossil fuel black carbon, biomass burning and mineral dust aerosols were all identified as having a significant anthropogenic component and exerting a significant direct RF.
The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. RF expresses the change in energy in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The RF of a gas is defined as the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation caused by the increased concentration of that gas. Radiative forcing is expressed in Watts per square meter (W/m2) or the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top part of the atmosphere.
RF is an instantaneous measure: it expresses the climate forcing of a greenhouse gas (GHG) at a particular point in time. Yet it also has a temporal component: it is a backward-looking metric because it measures the RF of a GHG that has accumulated in the atmosphere over a certain period of time (e.g. aviation emissions over approximately 60 years). Reference: "Radiative Forcing"
RF provides a limited measure of global warming as it does not attempt to represent the overall climate response. (IPCC, 2007, WGI, p 133). Reference: p 133, FAQ 2.1 - Figure 1 and FAQ 2.1 - Figure 2. LINK: AR4 WGI "Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing"
Positive and Negative RF
A positive radiative forcing (W/m2) number leads to global warming and a negative radiative forcing (W/m2) number leads to a cooling affect.
Albedo, or reflection coefficient, is the diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. Total aerosol direct effect and cloud albedo effect is a negative RF number. Surface albedo effect is negative, which includes land use (negative number) while black carbon on snow is a positive number. Total net human activates RF is a global warming positive number (0.6-1.6 W/m2).
NOTE: Aerosol particles reflect solar radiation leading to a net cooling, therefore aerosols have negative-RF values. If the problems of global warming are going to be resolved, any negative RF is a valuable global warming commodity that is worth more understanding.
The ability of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to create a global dimming (negative) effect has made them a possible candidate for use in geoengineering projects to limit the effect and impact of climate change due to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Delivery of precursor sulfide gases such as hydrogen sulfide (H2S) or sulfur dioxide (SO2) by artillery, aircraft, and balloons has been proposed.
GREENHOUSE GASES
Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. Prior to the industrial era, greenhouse gas concentrations were roughly constant. Due to human activity, global warming atmospheric greenhouse gas ratios are no longer constant and are in a state of change.
Post industrial era, human carbon (coal, oil, natural gas) has added huge amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product size. Increased energy used increases global warming CO2 emissions that are life threatening to the human race.
Human activities result in emissions of four principal greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons.
These GHG gases accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with time. Increases in all of these gases have occurred since the start of the Industrial Era. All GHG increases are attributable to human activities. Reference: (IPCC, 2007, WGI, p 135, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1) as amended LINK: AR4 WGI "Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing"
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Carbon dioxide is the most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It has contributed approximately 55 per cent of the anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect up until today. Carbon dioxide emissions have been growing at 3.5 percent per year since 2000, four times the rate of growth in the 1990s.
CO2 is part of a complicated carbon cycle involving the atmosphere, plants and animals, land and the oceans. The intensive use of fossil fuels since industrialization is the main driver of anthropogenic global warming. Human life is carbon and water based.
In other words, using carbon fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas for energy production and industry is the primary cause of global warming.
Coal leads to the greatest emissions of CO2 per unit of energy produced, while natural gas leads to the lowest emissions (40 per cent less than coal).
Oil lies roughly halfway between coal and natural gas in relation to the end use of electricity or natural gas for heating, as oil and natural gas have a much higher efficiency.
From 1750 up until today, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by up to 33 per cent, and is at its highest level for the last 420,000 years. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere during the previous 420,000 years has been in the range 180-280ppm. You have to go back 20 million years to find CO2 concentrations of the magnitude the Earth is currently moving towards. Existing CO2 rate of change increase has no identified historical precedence.
Through out its life span, human existence has adapted — but human existence has never before experienced what is coming so quickly with such a large population and industrialization. For a human race prehistory perspective of human development and adaption, consider viewing/reading the website "Journey of Mankind - The Peopling of the World," by the Bradshaw Foundation and Stephen Oppenheimer. Reference: "Journey of Mankind - The Peopling of the World"
Except for the 74,000 BCE super-eruption of Mt. Toba (now identified as Indonesian Lake Toba) producing a massive amount of (negative-RF) aerosols, causing a 6 year nuclear winter, and a 1,000 year ice-age, with a dramatic global population crash to less than 10,000 adults—never before have human races seen such a huge change in atmospheric radiative forcing (RF) conditions within such a short time period.
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are small compared to the quantities of carbon involved in the natural carbon cycle. Yet the natural cycle is in balance, and this balance is being disturbed by anthropogenic emissions.
Some of the CO2 emissions are absorbed by forests and other ecosystems. Currently, around 30 per cent of anthropogenic emissions are absorbed, but it is very uncertain as to whether this level will remain this high.
Some CO2 is absorbed by the oceans, but approx. half remains in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in atmospheric concentration. Ocean CO2 also produces ocean acidification.
However, the ocean absorption proceeds slowly, and it will take a long time before the atmosphere reaches a new equilibrium with the CO2 dissolved in the oceans. This is because the exchange between the ocean surface and deep water is very slow, and there are limits as to how much CO2 can be dissolved in both surface water and deep water.
Approx. 50 per cent of the total anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide are not absorbed, but remain in the atmosphere. This means that it is practically impossible to return to the situation before we began CO2 emissions into the atmosphere (i.e., return to the preindustrial CO2 levels), even if we completely stop emitting CO2 into the atmosphere. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Carbon dioxide (CO2)"
• Methane (CH4) - Methane is currently the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Methane has contributed approximately 20 per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Methane occurs naturally in the atmosphere in very small concentrations. Most of it presumably derives from the anaerobic breakdown of organic material in marshes and methane clathrate. Very large quantities of methane are bound in the frozen tundra in Canada and Siberia. There are also large quantities of methane bound as methane clathrate (hydrates) which is a type of ice containing methane found in the Arctic ocean floor, coast line, and tundra and deeper in more temperate oceans. If the tundra begins to thaw, or the ocean floor/coast line temperature rises due to global warming, this stored methane may be released as a feedback mechanism, making a further contribution to global warming. Methane has a more powerful impact on the atmospheric greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. Yet methane breaks down relatively quickly (after approximately 12 years), with the result that a reduction in methane emissions would have a rapid effect. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Methane (CH4)"
• Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Nitrous oxide is only contributes approximately four per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Like methane, agriculture is the primary source of anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions. These arise when soil-borne bacteria convert nitrogen from fertilizer and manure into nitrous oxide. Combustion processes and the use of catalytic converters also contribute to nitrous oxide emissions. The total increase in the atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide due to anthropogenic emissions is 17 per cent. However, it is still important to reduce emissions, as nitrous oxide has a long lifetime in the atmosphere (120 years). As a result, the global warming potential of nitrous oxide is around 310 times greater than that of CO2. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Nitrous oxide (N2O)"
• Halocarbon - Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities. Natural processes are also a small source. The concentration of halocarbons in the atmosphere is very small. However, halocarbon gas contribute to approximately 13 per cent of the anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. The group includes CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. CFCs (previously used to produce insulating foam for refrigerators, etc.) are best known for their part in breaking down the ozone layer. International agreements were established under the UN Montreal Protocol (1987) to phase out the use of CFC gases in order to protect the ozone layer. Concentrations are therefore rising more slowly, or even falling, because emissions are being reduced. However, concentrations of the gases used to replace CFCs (HCFCs and HFCs) and other industrial gases (such as PFCs and SF6) are increasing, and these are also powerful greenhouse gases. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Halocarbons"
• Ozone (O3) - Ozone arises in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere (around 10 per cent of all atmospheric ozone is found here). The remainder is in the stratosphere – above the troposphere – at altitudes of between 10 and 50 km.
Ozone forms in the lower atmosphere due to air pollution (smog). Above the troposphere, ozone is formed naturally and protects life on Earth against ultraviolet radiation from the sun.
The anthropogenic increase in ozone levels in the troposphere has contributed to approximately eight per cent of the total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect. Anthropogenic ozone derives from sources such as vehicle exhaust gases.
However, ozone levels vary over time and in terms of altitude and geographic location, making it far more difficult to determine how much ozone levels in the troposphere have increased due to anthropogenic impacts and their effects.
The UN climate panel estimates that the increase in ozone levels in the troposphere has contributed to an increase in the greenhouse effect of roughly twice the magnitude of the negative-RF contribution due to the breakdown of the ozone layer in the stratosphere. Reference: Danish Energy Agency "Ozone O3"
• Water vapor - Water vapor is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is considered within Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations.
• Aerosols - Aerosols are small particles present in the atmosphere with widely varying size, concentration and chemical composition. Some aerosols are emitted directly into the atmosphere while others are formed from emitted compounds. Aerosols contain both naturally occurring compounds and those emitted as a result of human activities. Fossil fuel and biomass burning have increased aerosols containing sulphur compounds, organic compounds and black carbon (soot). Human activities such as surface mining and industrial processes have increased dust in the atmosphere. Natural aerosols include mineral dust released from the surface, sea salt aerosols, biogenic emissions from the land and oceans and sulphates and dust aerosols produced by volcanic eruptions.
COSTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
The costs of limiting climate change are still at a manageable level, but costs will increase the longer action is delayed. It still may be possible to limit anthropogenic climate change to a warming constrained to around +2 °C above the preindustrial level, but this will require fast and resolute political action.
Total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.
There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm CO2eq, much less above 400 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent). Required is spending as much money as necessary to reduce NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) necessary to stabilize Earth’s temperature increase to a “safe” level.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
When you take into account GHGs, and etc., the current atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases (i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons) are equivalent to about 450ppm CO2eq. However in addition to the warming effect of these GHGs, man made aerosols have a cooling effect and black carbon a further warming effect.
NOTE: There is no authoritative statement as to a "safe" temperature increase level. Nor is there a statement as to a "safe" CO2eq level. To properly identify temperature stabilization levels, both CO2eq level and Radiative Forcing (RF) figures must be identified. Additionally, for a complete “safe” temperature statement it is necessary to identify the time it takes Earth’s temperature to stabilize at a given CO2eq level with a given RF.
As to global warming mitigation costs - Just spend as much money as possible to effectively reduce natural and human GHGs. Start with quickly phasing out coal based electrical energy and quickly build new nuclear energy electrical stations.
Costs of responses to global warming have been covertly and overtly manipulated by world leaders and Euro-U.S. socialists/anti nuclear groups. There are no true costs of global warming mitigation because there has been no effective global warming mitigation planning. It is in the interests of self-serving groups to transfer schemes to global warming rip-offs. To identify costs of global warming—start with a valid verified plan that will identify natural and human carbon emissions (CO2) to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels).
World leaders and politicians are deaf, dumb, and blind when it comes to acknowledging the hazards and costs of global warming. It is up to the business community and news media to forcefully inform politicians that it is the politicians’ responsibility to save human races.
UNTOWARD TAMPERING WITH GLOBAL WARMING EVIDENCE
Too much of the global warming information available from the internet is false and misleading. U.N., U.S., U.K., and German government agency’s global warming information is misleading and deceptive. It appears hackers and political leaders’ defenses against global warming temperature increase are lies and deceit.
