By David G. Eselius
On the fringes of the Arctic/Antarctic and within the Arctic Ocean it is now changing from a carbon/methane sink to a carbon/methane source. There is no need to wait to the end of the century—the geologic event of carbon sink to source is happening now as a result of the period of time exceeding the level of 350 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent) and methane level above 750 ppb.
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
The changing of Earth from a carbon/methane sink to a carbon/methane source depends upon global warming temperature, which is a very important to the survival of the human races. Global warming temperature is now +0.8°C above preindustrial.
Prior to 1750 AD (i.e., within the Holocene Epoch) is considered “preindustrial.” The Holocene Era encompasses within it the growth and impacts of the human species world-wide, including all its written history and overall significant transition toward urban living in the present. Civilization developed during the Era, which is a interglacial period of the past 10,000 years, during which global temperature and sea level have been unusually stable.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979 AD, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25°C per decade against 0.13°C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. Temperature increase per decade is accelerating.
The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo and methane/carbon feedback. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process.
Feedback potential tipping points may exist that have the potential to cause abrupt global warming change. For example, average North and South polar regions’ warming experience positive feedback such as methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Therefore, North and South polar regions are warmed about four times greater than average Earth global warming temperature. Polar methane releases may exceed a tipping point that results in an abrupt global warming temperature increase.
Thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that global warming can take decades to centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 AD levels, a further warming of about 0.5°C (0.9°F) would still occur.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing (RF) from carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3), CFCs, and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750 AD. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that carbon dioxide values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.
Fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in carbon dioxide from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of carbon dioxide increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation. Methane has recently become a global warming gas of increased interest.
Over the last three decades of the 20th century gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (aka, standard of living) and population growth became the main drivers of increases in natural and human (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gas emissions that resulted in global warming temperature increases.
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of global warming. Very critical to the continued survival of the human races is a timely installing of a proper level of mitigation. To know when, what, how much, and what mitigation is necessary, the projected 2050 AD “business as usual” global warming temperature must be known.
Business as Usual - Within general planing, identifying “no response” or “business as usual” to a set of conditions is a standard statement. It identifies what happens if action is not taken to correct an issue. No response (or no action scenario) is always included as one of several proposed general planning alternatives (or solutions). “Business as usual” identifies what will happen if there are no global warming mitigation changes.
Carbon Dioxide Equivalents - In the context of emissions of greenhouse gases, “carbon dioxide equivalents” (CO2e or CO2eq) refers to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that would give the same warming effect as the effect of the greenhouse gas or various greenhouse gases being emitted.
A Layer of Greenhouse Gases – Global warming greenhouse gases are primarily water vapor, and include much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) that act as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). The zone of temperature for supporting human life is considered very narrow, perhaps less than +/- 1.5C.
METHANE
Methane (CH4) is acknowledged as the second most important greenhouse gas produced by natural and human activity after carbon dioxide and has been considered accountable for about a fifth (now one third) of warming effects. Methane’s chief sources are landfill sites, fossil fuel energy and agriculture, particularly rice and livestock farming. Newly considered are natural methane sources of the Arctic tundra/ocean, Antarctica ocean, oceans, and rivers.
Over time, while under increased pressure and/or reduced temperature—natural gas (a.k.a, methane) often leaks into oceans floors and tundra and forms vast volumes of "frozen" methane clathrate (hydrate). As pressure decreases and/or temperature increases, methane clathrate transitions into the global warming greenhouse methane gas. Currently there is increased venting of Arctic tundra/ocean and Antarctica ocean methane.
Methane plays important roles in both the planet’s radiative energy budget and global atmospheric chemistry. To date, global politicians have not considered the impact of global warming much less consider the global warming impotence of methane (CH4).
The volume of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere has grown fairly steadily since the beginning of the modern industrial era (1750 AD) when it was only about 680 ppb. The rate of growth in atmospheric methane remained fairly steady from 1900 AD until 1995 AD when it began to taper off. Methane increases stabilized between 2003 AD and 2006 AD, and then began an abrupt rise that was unprecedented. Why between 1995 AD and 2006 AD there was a atmospheric methane tapering off that remains unexplained? Also unexplained is why there was a 2006 AD abrupt methane surge that was unprecedented?
The surge now appears to be due to the accelerating disintegration of marine and tundra methane clathrate (hydrate) and perhaps a ongoing methane global warming potential (GWP) change. The current level of atmospheric methane has passed 1,790 ppb by volume and its annual growth rate is currently between 6 ppb. and 9 ppb.
Polar Land Methane Sites - Polar area land permafrost is not your garden-variety soil. Beneath the frozen depths of the Arctic, the icy soil stores an estimated 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon — methane and other hydrocarbons — twice as much as is found in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases are locked up in permafrost, frozen ground that covers 24 percent of exposed land in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as parts of Antarctica and the Patagonian region of Argentina and Chile in the Southern Hemisphere.
Greenhouse gases are escaping the land and ocean permafrost and entering the atmosphere at an increasing rate—perhaps more than 50 billion tonnes each year of methane. This is particularly troublesome because OVER 20 YEARS methane heats the atmosphere with 56 times the efficiency of carbon dioxide.
The release of all this stored carbon and methane could change global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica in ways researchers have yet to fully understand.
Polar Ocean Methane Sites, Examples – Some historical records of polar permafrost methane levels are noted: Law Dome (south of Cape Poinsett, Antarctica) and Cape Grim (Australia), also the Arctic East Siberian Arctic Shelf (North Siberia, Arctic Ocean). Degradation of East Siberian Arctic Shelf sub-sea permafrost is already releasing methane from the massive, frozen, undersea carbon pool and more is expected with further global warming.
Methane Arctic and Antarctica Venting - Methane “feed back” of Arctic and Antarctica methane venting results in polar regional temperature levels increasing well above current average global warming temperature rise. Methane venting feedback can also result in a rapid paleoclimate change in Earth’s temperature. (Paleoclimatology (also Palaeoclimatology) is the study of climate change taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth.)
Methane venting in the polar regions are increasing at an alarming rate due to polar venting of methane-clathrate methane gas. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) global warming temperature increases since 1750 AD and regional methane heating results in the potential of a massive rapid methane-clathrate eruption venting (i.e., clathrate gun hypothesis). “Rapid” means a global warming temperature increase exceeding +6.4°C above preindustrial temperature in 2050-2099!
The Arctic and Antarctica methane venting “feedback” loop is of great scientific concern, but lacks acknowledgment and active mitigation responses by world leaders. Without attention by world leaders to global warming temperature increase—the human races end.
Globally, anyone now under the age of 30 will die of global warming temperature increase!!!
FORCING
Climate Forcing - A climate forcing is an imposed change of Earth's energy balance, as may be caused, for example, by a change of the sun's brightness or a human-made change of atmospheric CO2. For convenience scientists often consider a standard forcing to be doubled atmospheric CO2, because that is a level of forcing that humans will impose before the end of this century (about 2090 AD) if fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) use continues unabated.
Forcing Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - For 650,000 years (i.e. Quaternary Period and Pliocene Epoch), atmospheric CO2 has never been above 300 ppm, until now. Ice core data show that atmospheric CO2 levels changed between 180 ppm (glacial periods) and 280 ppm (interglacial periods) as Earth moved in and out of ice ages. The upper safety limit for atmospheric CO2 is 350 parts per million (ppm). July 2011 atmospheric CO2 is 392.4 ppm.
In a “business as usual” carbon emissions scenario, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are projected around 2090 to be 2.0 times greater than 650,000 years of historic methane peak levels.
Forcing Methane (NH4) - There is no standard of forcing level for methane. If there was, it has been exceeded long before now. For 650,000 years, atmospheric methane (NH4) as measured by ice cores has seldom been above 700 ppb, until now. Data shows that atmospheric methane levels changed between 350 ppb (glacial periods) and 700 ppb (interglacial periods).
Resulting from the political energy-policy of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions-scenario, 2011 methane atmospheric (CH4) is at ~1,790ppb (1.79ppm). Current methane level is 2.5 times greater than 650,000 years of historic methane peak levels. Concluded is that methane changes are becoming a greater importance global warming temperature force than carbon dioxide. (Human CO2 emissions can be reduced by politicians while natural CH4 releases can be reduced only by decreasing the global temperature.)
TIME, TEMPERATURE, METHANE, AND CARBON DIOXIDE GRAPHS
Current methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased faster and are greater levels than ever for more than 20 million years. You know global warming temperature increase is going to exceed anticipated safe limits.
600,000+ years To 1750 AD Graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - A time series graph of ancient air trapped as ice bubbles for the past 600,000+ years is Referenced Graph. On the graph’s top line, methane content of air bubbles; on the lower line carbon dioxide patterns over this same time period. The middle line represents the hydrogen isotope ratio of the ice which is a good proxy for the air temperature record. The ice core records also show that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are tightly correlated with each other and with temperature; the global temperature is reflected in the hydrogen isotope ratios of the ice.
1750 AD to 2050 AD Graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - To help evaluate the political “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario that terminates human life 2050 AD to 2099 AD, it is necessary to present a 200 year graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) from 1750 AD to 2050 AD.
However, the internet data access necessary to construct a 200 year temperature, CH4, CO2 graph from 1750 AD to 2050 AD has been purged by political and “spin” forces from internet access.
Rather than being politically and economically inconvenienced by changing THEIR GLOBAL WARMING POLICIES, some global leaders do not “change” their previously established policies, and remain committed to allowing the destruction of human races. Considering the gravity of the global warming advance, the political ordering or participating in restrictions/altering government department, schools, or private global-warming information would be an impeachable offence.
CHANGING GWP
Unlike building monuments on the Washington Mall, science concepts change over time. Science grows from past experiences. Since IPCC working groups formed its “climate change” studies in the 1990s, climatology’s understanding of global warming changes has been refined. However, for more than a decade IPCC methodology has not identified global most probable warming temperature increase from now to 2050.
With a unrelenting increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) from 1750 AD to present, and considering Arctic and Antarctica increased natural methane venting and with increased global warming potential (GWP) weight—there is great deal of scientific concern (but no political concern) for human races’ termination from global warming temperature increase 2050 AD to 2099 AD.
METHANE: A Changing GWP - The effects of a critical greenhouse gas on global warming have been significantly underestimated, according to research suggesting that emissions controls and climate models may need to be revised.
Earth's heat exchange rate between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is generally calculated according to global warming potential (GWP), which measures the effects of one tonne of a gas on warming over 20, 100, and 500 years in comparison to one tonne of carbon dioxide. Reference: UNFCCC Global Warming Potentials
Methane’s impact on global temperatures is about a third higher than generally thought because previous estimates have not accounted for its interaction with airborne particles called aerosols. Reference: "Methane’s impact on global warming far higher than previously thought," The Times, October 30, 2009
Methane has become a very-interesting positive feed back global warming temperature increase greenhouse gas. Methane (CH4) may account for up to a third of the global warming from greenhouse gases between 1750 AD and 2050 AD.
Sulphate molecules, produced when sulphur dioxide is oxidised in the atmosphere, have a cooling effect on the climate as they reflect heat but, while their direct effects are included in climate models, their indirect effects in combination with methane and other gases have not been previously included.
Methane and carbon monoxide reduce levels of sulphate aerosols, because they use up oxidants such as hydroxyl in the atmosphere. Fewer oxidant molecules are thus available to oxidise sulphur dioxide to produce sulphate.
Gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than generally used in scientific studies and the UN Kyoto Protocol. Global warming potential (GWP) changes significantly alter global warming projected temperature increase.
A brief GWP change summary is: There appears to be a atmospheric chemical reaction between methane (CH4) and industrial/transportation emissions. More methane means less sulphate. Sulfate is reflective and thus has a cooling effect. Therefore, more methane interaction with sulfate means less sulfate and less global cooling effect (i.e., more global warming).
When the indirect air borne particles (aerosols) effect upon potent greenhouse gas methane is included in GWP calculations, one tonne of methane has about one third more effect on the global warming over 20 years than has previously been understood.
Political global warming policy decisions (if there ever are any) must include accounting for interactions and links to emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and atmospheric aerosols.
It is becoming more evident that measured methane atmospheric content (ppbv) is increasing its proportion of global warming gas share while methane is also increasing its global warming potential (GWP) to warm Earth. Therefore, global warming is getting warmer.
Global-warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. GWP compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass (one tonne) of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100, or 500 years. GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is standardized to 1). For example, the 20 year GWP of methane has been 56, which means if the same weights of methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the atmosphere, methane will trap 56 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.
However, it now appears that because of chemical interactions with industrial/transportation emissions has resulted in a methane GWP increase. In the new example, 20 year GWP of methane has been considered 56 times that of carbon dioxide. The real GWP of methane is 75 times that of carbon dioxide. A change in GWP from 56 to 75 has a profound effect upon projected global warming temperature increase.
This increase in methane GWP is ironic because a decrease in industrial/transportation emissions results in a increase in global warming temperature increase.
GLOBAL WARMING “SAFE” LIMITS
The paleoclimate record makes it clear that human made global warming less than +2°C, as proposed WITHIN SOME DISCUSSIONS are not adequate—global warming must remain below at least +1.5°C! To do so will be difficult because global average temperature increase is now +0.8°C.
There is no “safe” carbon dioxide equivalent level (CO2eq) above 350ppm! There is no “safe” methane level above 750 ppb! With Earth's carbon dioxide (CO2) at ~390ppm and methane (CH4) at ~1,790ppb—Earth’s temperature exceeds “trip levels” and soon Earth’s temperature exceeds +6.4°C!!!!
IMPORTANT POLITICAL NOTICE
President Obama’s view of solving global warming temperature increase is to do it 30 or 40 years from now.
Obama 2007 to present speeches, legislation, funding, and regulations identify “renewable energy” policy as the the panacea for global warming greenhouse gas emissions and increasing global warming. Obama’s energy “policy” dismantles U.S. nuclear energy sector and some European national nuclear energy sectors.
Obama and other left Democrats are rewriting science, history, economic, and political/current events to support the needs of the left Democrat’s “new normal.” In December 2009, Obama closed Yucca Mountain geologic nuclear repository. Also in December 2009, at the UN Copenhagen COP15 global warming meeting, Obama’s transfer of wealth agreement completed the dismantling UN attempts to mitigate global warming temperature increase (i.e., “climate change”).
President Obama and his political support staff still oppose global warming mitigation. Many of Obama’s left-Democrat political drones still support Obama’s energy policies.
Within Washington politics, what is legislated cannot be undone. President Obama and left Democrat social reform goals were compressed and accelerated by the majority of the 2009-2010 Congress/Presidency. The accelerated U.S. socialist legislation tipped the balance of global economic stability and shifted economic/military power from the Euro-U.S. to that of China and Mideast/Asia. (The period of Euro-U.S. left-socialist accelerate growth 2009-present is sometimes considered as the Holocene economic-holocaust and period of government "Heisenberg uncertainty principle.")
U.S. left Democrat political changes to U.S./China economy, national trade, and military, the Euro-U.S. changes to U.S. SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, and MILITARY commitments over the last two and half years is established and will not be undone. It is unlikely that U.S. political leadership will recover in time to regain support for GLOBAL WARMING MITIGATION and SAVING HUMAN RACES.
U.S./Obama political opposition to addressing global warming continues. Internet sites that are in scientific conflict with Obama’s global warming views are being covertly revised (or hacked). Government and public internet sites containing scientific information that is in conflict with Obama’s views are being replaced with manipulated global warming spin, lies, deletions, and omissions. Projections for global warming are not reliable for the critical period of 1750-2050.
Resulting from POLITICAL GLOBAL WARMING CHANGES, IPCC documents and conclusions are no longer dependable or reliable. Much global warming internet content has been unfavorably tampered with. U.S. schools/university teaching and research on global warming are based upon false and unreliable IPCC information, internet information, unreliable U.S. government information, and conditional school research political funding.
Much global warming research funding is dependent upon Obama’s federal/state politics and regulations, and how Washington DC politicians feel about global warming responses. Science, history, human values, economics, and society is rewritten to match the current political “new norm” needs of Washington’s left-Democrat political leadership—which includes global warming temperature increase.
The intent of Obama’s changing scientific information is to avoid as long as possible Obama’s need to acknowledge, and act upon, the peril to human races that is the result of “business as usual” no-global-warming-mitigation.
World leaders who want to remain on carbon economies are enabled to do so by the covert global warming “cover up” politics.
AVOIDING GREATER DANGEROUS GLOBAL WARMING
No national leader has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. Although the requirements are well known by scientist, there is no government agency within Euro-U.S. global warming “business as usual” understandings that have identified the requirements necessary to prevent human races termination 2050 AD to 2099 AD. It is political global warming and economics politics that is suppressing the ability of human races to save themselves.
With the 2010 AD understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2°C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015 AD to 2020 AD, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 AD (based on 1990 AD levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 AD towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5°C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
The politics of global warming will destroy the human races 2050 AD to 2099 AD. Unless there are huge clean nuclear energy replacements of carbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) over the next few years, there will be no more human race.
As to news media silence. The political news media has given politicians uncontested support to undermine global warming mitigation. The news media is as responsible for the termination of the human races as are the politicians. "Your silence gives consent." -Plato
On the fringes of the Arctic/Antarctic and within the Arctic Ocean it is now changing from a carbon/methane sink to a carbon/methane source. There is no need to wait to the end of the century—the geologic event of carbon sink to source is happening now as a result of the period of time exceeding the level of 350 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent) and methane level above 750 ppb.
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
The changing of Earth from a carbon/methane sink to a carbon/methane source depends upon global warming temperature, which is a very important to the survival of the human races. Global warming temperature is now +0.8°C above preindustrial.
Prior to 1750 AD (i.e., within the Holocene Epoch) is considered “preindustrial.” The Holocene Era encompasses within it the growth and impacts of the human species world-wide, including all its written history and overall significant transition toward urban living in the present. Civilization developed during the Era, which is a interglacial period of the past 10,000 years, during which global temperature and sea level have been unusually stable.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979 AD, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25°C per decade against 0.13°C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. Temperature increase per decade is accelerating.
The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo and methane/carbon feedback. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process.
Feedback potential tipping points may exist that have the potential to cause abrupt global warming change. For example, average North and South polar regions’ warming experience positive feedback such as methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Therefore, North and South polar regions are warmed about four times greater than average Earth global warming temperature. Polar methane releases may exceed a tipping point that results in an abrupt global warming temperature increase.
Thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that global warming can take decades to centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 AD levels, a further warming of about 0.5°C (0.9°F) would still occur.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing (RF) from carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3), CFCs, and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750 AD. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that carbon dioxide values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.
Fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in carbon dioxide from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of carbon dioxide increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation. Methane has recently become a global warming gas of increased interest.
Over the last three decades of the 20th century gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (aka, standard of living) and population growth became the main drivers of increases in natural and human (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gas emissions that resulted in global warming temperature increases.
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of global warming. Very critical to the continued survival of the human races is a timely installing of a proper level of mitigation. To know when, what, how much, and what mitigation is necessary, the projected 2050 AD “business as usual” global warming temperature must be known.
Business as Usual - Within general planing, identifying “no response” or “business as usual” to a set of conditions is a standard statement. It identifies what happens if action is not taken to correct an issue. No response (or no action scenario) is always included as one of several proposed general planning alternatives (or solutions). “Business as usual” identifies what will happen if there are no global warming mitigation changes.
Carbon Dioxide Equivalents - In the context of emissions of greenhouse gases, “carbon dioxide equivalents” (CO2e or CO2eq) refers to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that would give the same warming effect as the effect of the greenhouse gas or various greenhouse gases being emitted.
A Layer of Greenhouse Gases – Global warming greenhouse gases are primarily water vapor, and include much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) that act as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). The zone of temperature for supporting human life is considered very narrow, perhaps less than +/- 1.5C.
METHANE
Methane (CH4) is acknowledged as the second most important greenhouse gas produced by natural and human activity after carbon dioxide and has been considered accountable for about a fifth (now one third) of warming effects. Methane’s chief sources are landfill sites, fossil fuel energy and agriculture, particularly rice and livestock farming. Newly considered are natural methane sources of the Arctic tundra/ocean, Antarctica ocean, oceans, and rivers.
Over time, while under increased pressure and/or reduced temperature—natural gas (a.k.a, methane) often leaks into oceans floors and tundra and forms vast volumes of "frozen" methane clathrate (hydrate). As pressure decreases and/or temperature increases, methane clathrate transitions into the global warming greenhouse methane gas. Currently there is increased venting of Arctic tundra/ocean and Antarctica ocean methane.
Methane plays important roles in both the planet’s radiative energy budget and global atmospheric chemistry. To date, global politicians have not considered the impact of global warming much less consider the global warming impotence of methane (CH4).
The volume of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere has grown fairly steadily since the beginning of the modern industrial era (1750 AD) when it was only about 680 ppb. The rate of growth in atmospheric methane remained fairly steady from 1900 AD until 1995 AD when it began to taper off. Methane increases stabilized between 2003 AD and 2006 AD, and then began an abrupt rise that was unprecedented. Why between 1995 AD and 2006 AD there was a atmospheric methane tapering off that remains unexplained? Also unexplained is why there was a 2006 AD abrupt methane surge that was unprecedented?
The surge now appears to be due to the accelerating disintegration of marine and tundra methane clathrate (hydrate) and perhaps a ongoing methane global warming potential (GWP) change. The current level of atmospheric methane has passed 1,790 ppb by volume and its annual growth rate is currently between 6 ppb. and 9 ppb.
Polar Land Methane Sites - Polar area land permafrost is not your garden-variety soil. Beneath the frozen depths of the Arctic, the icy soil stores an estimated 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon — methane and other hydrocarbons — twice as much as is found in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases are locked up in permafrost, frozen ground that covers 24 percent of exposed land in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as parts of Antarctica and the Patagonian region of Argentina and Chile in the Southern Hemisphere.
Greenhouse gases are escaping the land and ocean permafrost and entering the atmosphere at an increasing rate—perhaps more than 50 billion tonnes each year of methane. This is particularly troublesome because OVER 20 YEARS methane heats the atmosphere with 56 times the efficiency of carbon dioxide.
The release of all this stored carbon and methane could change global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica in ways researchers have yet to fully understand.
Polar Ocean Methane Sites, Examples – Some historical records of polar permafrost methane levels are noted: Law Dome (south of Cape Poinsett, Antarctica) and Cape Grim (Australia), also the Arctic East Siberian Arctic Shelf (North Siberia, Arctic Ocean). Degradation of East Siberian Arctic Shelf sub-sea permafrost is already releasing methane from the massive, frozen, undersea carbon pool and more is expected with further global warming.
NOTE: IPCC, government departments, and science listing of methane (CH4) concentrations due to anthropogenic activities must also include polar Arctic and Antarctica methane natural venting.
Methane Arctic and Antarctica Venting - Methane “feed back” of Arctic and Antarctica methane venting results in polar regional temperature levels increasing well above current average global warming temperature rise. Methane venting feedback can also result in a rapid paleoclimate change in Earth’s temperature. (Paleoclimatology (also Palaeoclimatology) is the study of climate change taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth.)
Methane venting in the polar regions are increasing at an alarming rate due to polar venting of methane-clathrate methane gas. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) global warming temperature increases since 1750 AD and regional methane heating results in the potential of a massive rapid methane-clathrate eruption venting (i.e., clathrate gun hypothesis). “Rapid” means a global warming temperature increase exceeding +6.4°C above preindustrial temperature in 2050-2099!
The Arctic and Antarctica methane venting “feedback” loop is of great scientific concern, but lacks acknowledgment and active mitigation responses by world leaders. Without attention by world leaders to global warming temperature increase—the human races end.
Globally, anyone now under the age of 30 will die of global warming temperature increase!!!
FORCING
Climate Forcing - A climate forcing is an imposed change of Earth's energy balance, as may be caused, for example, by a change of the sun's brightness or a human-made change of atmospheric CO2. For convenience scientists often consider a standard forcing to be doubled atmospheric CO2, because that is a level of forcing that humans will impose before the end of this century (about 2090 AD) if fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) use continues unabated.
Forcing Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - For 650,000 years (i.e. Quaternary Period and Pliocene Epoch), atmospheric CO2 has never been above 300 ppm, until now. Ice core data show that atmospheric CO2 levels changed between 180 ppm (glacial periods) and 280 ppm (interglacial periods) as Earth moved in and out of ice ages. The upper safety limit for atmospheric CO2 is 350 parts per million (ppm). July 2011 atmospheric CO2 is 392.4 ppm.
In a “business as usual” carbon emissions scenario, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are projected around 2090 to be 2.0 times greater than 650,000 years of historic methane peak levels.
Forcing Methane (NH4) - There is no standard of forcing level for methane. If there was, it has been exceeded long before now. For 650,000 years, atmospheric methane (NH4) as measured by ice cores has seldom been above 700 ppb, until now. Data shows that atmospheric methane levels changed between 350 ppb (glacial periods) and 700 ppb (interglacial periods).
Resulting from the political energy-policy of “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions-scenario, 2011 methane atmospheric (CH4) is at ~1,790ppb (1.79ppm). Current methane level is 2.5 times greater than 650,000 years of historic methane peak levels. Concluded is that methane changes are becoming a greater importance global warming temperature force than carbon dioxide. (Human CO2 emissions can be reduced by politicians while natural CH4 releases can be reduced only by decreasing the global temperature.)
TIME, TEMPERATURE, METHANE, AND CARBON DIOXIDE GRAPHS
Current methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased faster and are greater levels than ever for more than 20 million years. You know global warming temperature increase is going to exceed anticipated safe limits.
600,000+ years To 1750 AD Graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - A time series graph of ancient air trapped as ice bubbles for the past 600,000+ years is Referenced Graph. On the graph’s top line, methane content of air bubbles; on the lower line carbon dioxide patterns over this same time period. The middle line represents the hydrogen isotope ratio of the ice which is a good proxy for the air temperature record. The ice core records also show that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are tightly correlated with each other and with temperature; the global temperature is reflected in the hydrogen isotope ratios of the ice.
1750 AD to 2050 AD Graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - To help evaluate the political “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario that terminates human life 2050 AD to 2099 AD, it is necessary to present a 200 year graph of Temperature (°C), Methane (CH4), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) from 1750 AD to 2050 AD.
However, the internet data access necessary to construct a 200 year temperature, CH4, CO2 graph from 1750 AD to 2050 AD has been purged by political and “spin” forces from internet access.
Rather than being politically and economically inconvenienced by changing THEIR GLOBAL WARMING POLICIES, some global leaders do not “change” their previously established policies, and remain committed to allowing the destruction of human races. Considering the gravity of the global warming advance, the political ordering or participating in restrictions/altering government department, schools, or private global-warming information would be an impeachable offence.
CHANGING GWP
Unlike building monuments on the Washington Mall, science concepts change over time. Science grows from past experiences. Since IPCC working groups formed its “climate change” studies in the 1990s, climatology’s understanding of global warming changes has been refined. However, for more than a decade IPCC methodology has not identified global most probable warming temperature increase from now to 2050.
With a unrelenting increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) from 1750 AD to present, and considering Arctic and Antarctica increased natural methane venting and with increased global warming potential (GWP) weight—there is great deal of scientific concern (but no political concern) for human races’ termination from global warming temperature increase 2050 AD to 2099 AD.
METHANE: A Changing GWP - The effects of a critical greenhouse gas on global warming have been significantly underestimated, according to research suggesting that emissions controls and climate models may need to be revised.
Earth's heat exchange rate between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is generally calculated according to global warming potential (GWP), which measures the effects of one tonne of a gas on warming over 20, 100, and 500 years in comparison to one tonne of carbon dioxide. Reference: UNFCCC Global Warming Potentials
Methane’s impact on global temperatures is about a third higher than generally thought because previous estimates have not accounted for its interaction with airborne particles called aerosols. Reference: "Methane’s impact on global warming far higher than previously thought," The Times, October 30, 2009
Methane has become a very-interesting positive feed back global warming temperature increase greenhouse gas. Methane (CH4) may account for up to a third of the global warming from greenhouse gases between 1750 AD and 2050 AD.
Sulphate molecules, produced when sulphur dioxide is oxidised in the atmosphere, have a cooling effect on the climate as they reflect heat but, while their direct effects are included in climate models, their indirect effects in combination with methane and other gases have not been previously included.
Methane and carbon monoxide reduce levels of sulphate aerosols, because they use up oxidants such as hydroxyl in the atmosphere. Fewer oxidant molecules are thus available to oxidise sulphur dioxide to produce sulphate.
Gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than generally used in scientific studies and the UN Kyoto Protocol. Global warming potential (GWP) changes significantly alter global warming projected temperature increase.
A brief GWP change summary is: There appears to be a atmospheric chemical reaction between methane (CH4) and industrial/transportation emissions. More methane means less sulphate. Sulfate is reflective and thus has a cooling effect. Therefore, more methane interaction with sulfate means less sulfate and less global cooling effect (i.e., more global warming).
When the indirect air borne particles (aerosols) effect upon potent greenhouse gas methane is included in GWP calculations, one tonne of methane has about one third more effect on the global warming over 20 years than has previously been understood.
Political global warming policy decisions (if there ever are any) must include accounting for interactions and links to emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and atmospheric aerosols.
It is becoming more evident that measured methane atmospheric content (ppbv) is increasing its proportion of global warming gas share while methane is also increasing its global warming potential (GWP) to warm Earth. Therefore, global warming is getting warmer.
Global-warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. GWP compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass (one tonne) of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100, or 500 years. GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is standardized to 1). For example, the 20 year GWP of methane has been 56, which means if the same weights of methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the atmosphere, methane will trap 56 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.
However, it now appears that because of chemical interactions with industrial/transportation emissions has resulted in a methane GWP increase. In the new example, 20 year GWP of methane has been considered 56 times that of carbon dioxide. The real GWP of methane is 75 times that of carbon dioxide. A change in GWP from 56 to 75 has a profound effect upon projected global warming temperature increase.
This increase in methane GWP is ironic because a decrease in industrial/transportation emissions results in a increase in global warming temperature increase.
GLOBAL WARMING “SAFE” LIMITS
The paleoclimate record makes it clear that human made global warming less than +2°C, as proposed WITHIN SOME DISCUSSIONS are not adequate—global warming must remain below at least +1.5°C! To do so will be difficult because global average temperature increase is now +0.8°C.
There is no “safe” carbon dioxide equivalent level (CO2eq) above 350ppm! There is no “safe” methane level above 750 ppb! With Earth's carbon dioxide (CO2) at ~390ppm and methane (CH4) at ~1,790ppb—Earth’s temperature exceeds “trip levels” and soon Earth’s temperature exceeds +6.4°C!!!!
IMPORTANT POLITICAL NOTICE
President Obama’s view of solving global warming temperature increase is to do it 30 or 40 years from now.
Obama 2007 to present speeches, legislation, funding, and regulations identify “renewable energy” policy as the the panacea for global warming greenhouse gas emissions and increasing global warming. Obama’s energy “policy” dismantles U.S. nuclear energy sector and some European national nuclear energy sectors.
Obama and other left Democrats are rewriting science, history, economic, and political/current events to support the needs of the left Democrat’s “new normal.” In December 2009, Obama closed Yucca Mountain geologic nuclear repository. Also in December 2009, at the UN Copenhagen COP15 global warming meeting, Obama’s transfer of wealth agreement completed the dismantling UN attempts to mitigate global warming temperature increase (i.e., “climate change”).
President Obama and his political support staff still oppose global warming mitigation. Many of Obama’s left-Democrat political drones still support Obama’s energy policies.
Within Washington politics, what is legislated cannot be undone. President Obama and left Democrat social reform goals were compressed and accelerated by the majority of the 2009-2010 Congress/Presidency. The accelerated U.S. socialist legislation tipped the balance of global economic stability and shifted economic/military power from the Euro-U.S. to that of China and Mideast/Asia. (The period of Euro-U.S. left-socialist accelerate growth 2009-present is sometimes considered as the Holocene economic-holocaust and period of government "Heisenberg uncertainty principle.")
U.S. left Democrat political changes to U.S./China economy, national trade, and military, the Euro-U.S. changes to U.S. SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, and MILITARY commitments over the last two and half years is established and will not be undone. It is unlikely that U.S. political leadership will recover in time to regain support for GLOBAL WARMING MITIGATION and SAVING HUMAN RACES.
U.S./Obama political opposition to addressing global warming continues. Internet sites that are in scientific conflict with Obama’s global warming views are being covertly revised (or hacked). Government and public internet sites containing scientific information that is in conflict with Obama’s views are being replaced with manipulated global warming spin, lies, deletions, and omissions. Projections for global warming are not reliable for the critical period of 1750-2050.
Resulting from POLITICAL GLOBAL WARMING CHANGES, IPCC documents and conclusions are no longer dependable or reliable. Much global warming internet content has been unfavorably tampered with. U.S. schools/university teaching and research on global warming are based upon false and unreliable IPCC information, internet information, unreliable U.S. government information, and conditional school research political funding.
Much global warming research funding is dependent upon Obama’s federal/state politics and regulations, and how Washington DC politicians feel about global warming responses. Science, history, human values, economics, and society is rewritten to match the current political “new norm” needs of Washington’s left-Democrat political leadership—which includes global warming temperature increase.
The intent of Obama’s changing scientific information is to avoid as long as possible Obama’s need to acknowledge, and act upon, the peril to human races that is the result of “business as usual” no-global-warming-mitigation.
World leaders who want to remain on carbon economies are enabled to do so by the covert global warming “cover up” politics.
AVOIDING GREATER DANGEROUS GLOBAL WARMING
No national leader has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase. Although the requirements are well known by scientist, there is no government agency within Euro-U.S. global warming “business as usual” understandings that have identified the requirements necessary to prevent human races termination 2050 AD to 2099 AD. It is political global warming and economics politics that is suppressing the ability of human races to save themselves.
With the 2010 AD understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2°C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015 AD to 2020 AD, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 AD (based on 1990 AD levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 AD towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5°C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
The politics of global warming will destroy the human races 2050 AD to 2099 AD. Unless there are huge clean nuclear energy replacements of carbon energy (coal, oil, natural gas) over the next few years, there will be no more human race.
As to news media silence. The political news media has given politicians uncontested support to undermine global warming mitigation. The news media is as responsible for the termination of the human races as are the politicians. "Your silence gives consent." -Plato
