By David G. Eselius
In 2009, MIT Integrated Global Systems Model probability predicted greater temperatures at century end 2090-2099. Reference: Schematic of construct of MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework
A global warming median projected increase in the 2003 study was just +2.4 °C degrees. Now the 2009 study has produced a median projected increase of +5.2 °C.
Even the +5.2 °C appears to be low because the MIT model appears not to have adequately considered methane clathrate leaking methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf into the atmosphere at an alarming rate. Earth’s 2099 temperature could easily exceed +6.4 °C.
Thawing by global warming of sub sea layer of the Arctic Ocean seafloor permafrost will release stores of underlying, seabed methane. A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov. Reference: “Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Faster Than Anticipated” March 4, 2010, NSF Press Release 10-036
MIT - “While the outcomes in the ‘no policy’ projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, "there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated. This increases the urgency for significant policy action."
The May 2009 MIT global warming model run indicates serious end-of-century global warming. Nether the less, the more important global temperature dates to identify are 2030 and 2050.
Projected by others is that global warming is to cross the EU +2 °C limit 2030-2040. At 2050, Earth will have a population of more than 9 billion people.
Insurance companies are aware of the global warming event. "Future temperature change is dependent on levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, and to a lesser extent methane and other greenhouse gases." Lloyd's "360 Risk Project" Research On Climate Change
There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm CO2eq, much less above 450 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent). Required is spending as much money as necessary to reduce NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) necessary to stabilize Earth’s temperature increase to a “safe” level.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
The MIT global warming model is incomplete. Methane clathrate leaking methane from the Arctic Ocean and human energy consumption are the primary driving forces for increased natural and human (anthropomorphic) global warming greenhouse gas emissions.
Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size. Without viable greenhouse gas reduction policies, Earth’s 2099 temperature most likely will easily exceed life terminating +6.4 °C.
MIT is correct on the point that mitigation must start now, "The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies." No national leader has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.
With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
In 2009, MIT Integrated Global Systems Model probability predicted greater temperatures at century end 2090-2099. Reference: Schematic of construct of MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework
● MIT - Indicated is a median probability of surface warming of +5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of +3.5 to +7.4 degrees Celsius (above preindustrial temperature).
A global warming median projected increase in the 2003 study was just +2.4 °C degrees. Now the 2009 study has produced a median projected increase of +5.2 °C.
Even the +5.2 °C appears to be low because the MIT model appears not to have adequately considered methane clathrate leaking methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf into the atmosphere at an alarming rate. Earth’s 2099 temperature could easily exceed +6.4 °C.
Thawing by global warming of sub sea layer of the Arctic Ocean seafloor permafrost will release stores of underlying, seabed methane. A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov. Reference: “Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much Faster Than Anticipated” March 4, 2010, NSF Press Release 10-036
MIT - “While the outcomes in the ‘no policy’ projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, "there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated. This increases the urgency for significant policy action."
The May 2009 MIT global warming model run indicates serious end-of-century global warming. Nether the less, the more important global temperature dates to identify are 2030 and 2050.
Projected by others is that global warming is to cross the EU +2 °C limit 2030-2040. At 2050, Earth will have a population of more than 9 billion people.
Insurance companies are aware of the global warming event. "Future temperature change is dependent on levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, and to a lesser extent methane and other greenhouse gases." Lloyd's "360 Risk Project" Research On Climate Change
There is NO SAFE greenhouse gases concentration stabilization level above 350 ppm CO2eq, much less above 450 ppm CO2eq (CO2 equivalent). Required is spending as much money as necessary to reduce NATURAL and HUMAN (anthropomorphic) greenhouse gases (GHGs) necessary to stabilize Earth’s temperature increase to a “safe” level.
Increasingly clear is that if the world strays significantly above 450 ppm CO2eq atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of the human race terminating 800 to 1,000 ppm CO2eq.
The MIT global warming model is incomplete. Methane clathrate leaking methane from the Arctic Ocean and human energy consumption are the primary driving forces for increased natural and human (anthropomorphic) global warming greenhouse gas emissions.
Energy consumption is driven by population size and gross domestic product (GDP) size. Without viable greenhouse gas reduction policies, Earth’s 2099 temperature most likely will easily exceed life terminating +6.4 °C.
“Climate change odds much worse than thought”
New analysis shows warming could be double previous estimates
David Chandler, MIT News Office
MAY 19, 2009
The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.
The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.
Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.
The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.
Prinn says these and a variety of other changes based on new measurements and new analyses changed the odds on what could be expected in this century in the "no policy" scenarios - that is, where there are no policies in place that specifically induce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the changes "unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction," he says. "Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming."
While the outcomes in the "no policy" projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, "there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated," Prinn says. "This increases the urgency for significant policy action."
To illustrate the range of probabilities revealed by the 400 simulations, Prinn and the team produced a "roulette wheel" that reflects the latest relative odds of various levels of temperature rise. The wheel provides a very graphic representation of just how serious the potential climate impacts are.
"There's no way the world can or should take these risks," Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feed backs that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback "is just going to make it worse," Prinn says.
[NOTE: The Arctic methane feedback increases global warming temperature increase. Therefore, Arctic methane feedback must be included in the MIT global warming model. Gas methane clathrates (hydrates) in the Arctic were being reported upon by the US DOE since at least 1978 Jan 01. Methane trapped in marine sediments as a clathrate (hydrate) represents such an immense carbon reservoir that it must be considered as an emerging dominant factor in estimating global warming temperature increase. -DGE]
Prinn stresses that the computer models are built to match the known conditions, processes and past history of the relevant human and natural systems, and the researchers are therefore dependent on the accuracy of this current knowledge. Beyond this, "we do the research, and let the results fall where they may," he says. Since there are so many uncertainties, especially with regard to what human beings will choose to do and how large the climate response will be, "we don't pretend we can do it accurately. Instead, we do these 400 runs and look at the spread of the odds."
Because vehicles last for years, and buildings and power plants last for decades, it is essential to start making major changes through adoption of significant national and international policies as soon as possible, Prinn says. "The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies."
This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of Science of the U.S. Dept. of Energy, and by the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
Fin
MIT is correct on the point that mitigation must start now, "The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies." No national leader has attempted to establish a viable national response plan to counter global warming temperature increase.
With the 2010 understanding of global warming, to have any reasonable 75% chance of keeping the global warming temperature rise below +2 °C — global carbon emissions (CO2) need to peak global greenhouse gas equivalent emissions (CO2eq) by 2015-2020, and fall at least 16% worldwide by 2030 (based on 1990 levels). Additional global human and natural GHG emission-reductions are necessary beyond 2050 towards a zero carbon economy by the end of the century. To remain below a +1.5 °C threshold requires greater reductions of human global carbon emissions (CO2).
